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Trading the Edge of Chaos -GBP/USD

  • #261
  • Mar 4, 2008 4:23am Mar 4, 2008 4:23am
Cable is unable to break his daily pivot @ 1.9867 from morning. Only Bernanke can push him upwards today

Fx, it would be interesting to hear how you calculate your edges?
  • #262
  • Mar 4, 2008 4:41am Mar 4, 2008 4:41am
Quoting sDRs
Cable is unable to break his daily pivot @ 1.9867 from morning. Only Bernanke can push him upwards today

Fx, it would be interesting to hear how you calculate your edges?
I use chaos strategy that is what this thread is all about. How do I do it is proprietary information.



- chaos traders do not take side or become emotional on whether it will break a level or not.


I have lost 19pips so far on sell...I entered too early, and when it went down to lower edge I was caught on aware.


But I will maintain the day's analysis until Bernanke's speech changed the outlook which is still far from here.
  • #263
  • Mar 4, 2008 9:49am Mar 4, 2008 9:49am
Market has been much on the edge today due to Fed speech and two more on the way.

Lost from GBP/USD (-19)+(-23) = -42pips
unnecessary trade that took me out of sell markets

Oil gain = 50pips
Gas = 2pips

Only 10pips gain so far

But I believe it is still possible to make something
out of oil today.
  • #264
  • Mar 5, 2008 12:46am Mar 5, 2008 12:46am
Morning,

what ideas for today Fx?

I see triangle is almost finished, so today should be very intensive day.
  • #265
  • Mar 5, 2008 1:02am Mar 5, 2008 1:02am
Quoting sDRs
Morning,

what ideas for today Fx?

I see triangle is almost finished, so today should be very intensive day.
There is not much change from yesterday's analysis
Chaos = bullish , almost the same levels for upper and lower edges
I will bring detailed report out later
-------------------------------------------

Report of my last two trades of yesterday

Buy Natural Gas -109 pips.
Sell back Natural Gas = 90 pips

Regretted closing the first trade

Ended the day with -19pips. It was bad trade management, I thought Gas was going to fall in tandem with crude oil but I entered too early.
  • #266
  • Mar 5, 2008 1:57am Mar 5, 2008 1:57am
Chaos for today = bullish

Before this market moved, the analysis was not different
from yesterday's chart which I repeated here.

So I will be looking for a buy back to 1. 9830. If I will trade it.

Options:
1. Buy back into 9830, and up to upper edge
2. failure to break above 9830 reverse back to sell down to 9747
Attached Image
  • #267
  • Mar 5, 2008 6:21am Mar 5, 2008 6:21am
So far cable isn't going up for sure.

Really strong support is at 1.9727. But todays news for UK was much better than forecasted, so we have a possibility to leave rates as is.
  • #268
  • Mar 5, 2008 8:55am Mar 5, 2008 8:55am
Quoting sDRs
So far cable isn't going up for sure.

Really strong support is at 1.9727. But todays news for UK was much better than forecasted, so we have a possibility to leave rates as is.
I do not want to be rude, but sDRs, your comments are out of tune with the purpose of this thread. As you can see my analysis since morning is still valid and unclear comments like yours will only make people abandon their trades if any one ever cares to follow the thread.

You are welcome to comments and discuss your views about chaos theory anyway.

But there are other threads you can make comments about future market trend based on expectation of rate cuts.
  • #269
  • Mar 5, 2008 9:40am Mar 5, 2008 9:40am
Quoting fxbroker
Chaos for today = bullish

Before this market moved, the analysis was not different
from yesterday's chart which I repeated here.

So I will be looking for a buy back to 1. 9830. If I will trade it.

Options:
1. Buy back into 9830, and up to upper edge
2. failure to break above 9830 reverse back to sell down to 9747
Upper edge should now be 1.9930
cover your back with trailing stop
  • #270
  • Mar 6, 2008 2:24am Mar 6, 2008 2:24am
Today's Chaos = Bullish
See graph below for plan of action.

Preference:
I would have preferrred to buy from lower edge to upper edge
but market opened at the middle. or I will wait for it to come back to 9893 and buy up to upper edge

If it failed to return back, buy above 9979 to upper edge of chaos.

Alternative Plan B
If it failed to move above 9979, sell back:
first to 9893, and then to lower edge 9771.

Alternative Plan C
Then Buy back from there to upper edge.


Trade with care.
Attached Image
  • #271
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:53am Mar 6, 2008 8:53am
Quoting fxbroker
Today's Chaos = Bullish
See graph below for plan of action.

Preference:
I would have preferrred to buy from lower edge to upper edge
but market opened at the middle. or I will wait for it to come back to 9893 and buy up to upper edge

If it failed to return back, buy above 9979 to upper edge of chaos.

Alternative Plan B
If it failed to move above 9979, sell back:
first to 9893, and then to lower edge 9771.

Alternative Plan C
Then Buy back from there to upper edge.


Trade with care.

Confidence on GBP/USD seems to be coming back.
Why? We have three days in row where market hits
upper and/ or lower edges on this same day as reported here.

Good times are coming again for those using the strategy
or following this thread.

today's buy option
Liquidate position entered above 9979 for 44pips

Some damage done on oil about -64pips erractic scared
from news of bombing in US or so.

---------------------------------
Oil gave +300pips yesterday.

If you are not making success consider money management
and amount risked........3% will give you tons of pips with chaos.
  • #272
  • Mar 6, 2008 9:10am Mar 6, 2008 9:10am
Better than expected data from USA but it seems GBP is head bent on reaching the upper edge today.......it should by our analysis.

So this bring one to the question of what and who move the market?
Definitely not fundamental today and in recent times?

we do not actually have to worry if chaos knows where the market
is going.
  • #273
  • Mar 7, 2008 1:52am Mar 7, 2008 1:52am
Chaos Outlook = Bullish

Today's is NFP fundamental and this may change the outlook after the announcements. Before then, below graph and analysis shows my plan if
I will have to trade it.

Depending on London openings

1. I will buy from above the yellow lines to upper edge of chaos.
And sell back from there before the NFP data if ever it gets there.

Alternative plan

1. Sell below the yellow lines to lower edge of chaos before the NFP data if ever it gets there, and buy back from there to upper edge after NFP.

Analysis is based on conditions of London open.
I collected 18pips from buy before. If I were to be on buy now I would remain on it with appropriate stoploss it after London opens .

-------------------------------------------------------
Risk: analysis is for own use, may work or may not work for you depending on how you manage your trade and amount you risked.
Attached Image
  • #274
  • Mar 7, 2008 2:24am Mar 7, 2008 2:24am
Quoting fxbroker
Chaos Outlook = Bullish

Today's is NFP fundamental and this may change the outlook after the announcements. Before then, below graph and analysis shows my plan if
I will have to trade it.

Depending on London openings

1. I will buy from above the yellow lines to upper edge of chaos.
And sell back from there before the NFP data if ever it gets there.

Alternative plan

1. Sell below the yellow lines to lower edge of chaos before the NFP data if ever it gets there, and buy back from there to upper edge after NFP.

Analysis is based on conditions of London open.
I collected 18pips from buy before. If I were to be on buy now I would remain on it with appropriate stoploss it after London opens .

-------------------------------------------------------
Risk: analysis is for own use, may work or may not work for you depending on how you manage your trade and amount you risked.
I am currently on Plan B, selling back hoping it will break below 2.0093.
I will then sell to lower edge, or else I will reverse trade and buy back
most probably.
  • #275
  • Mar 10, 2008 3:16am Mar 10, 2008 3:16am
Chaos general outlook = Bullish

Preferred entry = lower edge of chaos to upper edge.

alternatives
1. Sell from 2.0175 to 2.0150, and then to lower edge
if 2.0150 is broken.


2. Buy back from lower edge.

Plan B:
1 Buy from 2.0150 to 2.0200, and up to upper edge
Attached Image
  • #276
  • Mar 10, 2008 2:59pm Mar 10, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting fxbroker
Chaos general outlook = Bullish

Preferred entry = lower edge of chaos to upper edge.

alternatives
1. Sell from 2.0175 to 2.0150, and then to lower edge
if 2.0150 is broken.


2. Buy back from lower edge.

Plan B:
1 Buy from 2.0150 to 2.0200, and up to upper edge
Results:
It was messy trade with GBP/USD for me today, analysis did reached target
but after my trade suffered some injuries about -70pips with this pair. later
made some 49pips but still on deficit.

Oil and Gas
Did about 417 pips on both pairs.
Five days of trading these pairs returned about 1208 pips about 241 pips per day

The plan is for the method to be returning 400 - 500 pips per
day on average, with the right MM and instrument.

I think is is is now possible
If you are not making it with FX go crude and gas futures.

-------------------------------------------------------

Just completed investigation into the fallacies of Elliot Waves Theory
and mis-use of Fibonancci Numbers in financial trading - just in case you are interested.
  • #277
  • Mar 11, 2008 3:10am Mar 11, 2008 3:10am
Market outlook = bearish

However, initial condition looking bullish

Plans are shown in the graph below

1. Above 2.0111 = buy to upper edge

2. Below 2.0111 = sell, wait for a break below 2.0040
failure means buy to upper edge

If it breaks it, continue to sell below 2.0040
Attached Image
  • #278
  • Mar 11, 2008 4:53am Mar 11, 2008 4:53am
DCLG House Price Index y/y was positive for UK.

I am looking at upper edge carefully, First it need a break above
2.0142 and the upper .

Placed stop loss at break even, I entered late.

It may push the price back to 2.0217
  • #279
  • Mar 11, 2008 5:18am Mar 11, 2008 5:18am
Quoting fxbroker
Market outlook = bearish

However, initial condition looking bullish

Plans are shown in the graph below

1. Above 2.0111 = buy to upper edge

2. Below 2.0111 = sell, wait for a break below 2.0040
failure means buy to upper edge

If it breaks it, continue to sell below 2.0040
I have close out Plan 1: from above 2.0111 to upper edge for 50pips +20pips earlier before London = 70pips.

I learn not to trade against my methods long time.

At this stage, it is difficult to say what it what to do
but it hits upper edge of my calculated chaos, it may swerve back
and move up to 2.0217 but when that will be is hard to tell.

I am content with performance on GBP/USD which is a hard one
to crack. Now time to face oil and gas
  • #280
  • Mar 11, 2008 5:48am Mar 11, 2008 5:48am
Quoting fxbroker
I am content with performance on GBP/USD which is a hard one to crack. Now time to face oil and gas
I have taken quick 92pips from crude oil but GBP/USD is now sliding back.
You can actually use the rhythm of GBP/USD trade off crude oil and gas,
without further analysis or indicators
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