Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

I'm just selling all rallies bro.

Same here.

Keep an eye out for the Dailies on AU and NU. Looks like they are about to change trend.

hi ductchtrader I dont'n know if you remember me I used to trade with Mr. Dove and you a few month ago the eur/jpy, how are you, do you anything of mr. dove? thanks in advadce and happy trading.

Watching both of 'em. RBA governor on the wire, let's see what he's got to say.

careful out there... my broker just sent me some 5 or 6 messages about how the economy is great in Asia (some companies reporting better than expected in pre-market or so they say... don't know much about that part of the world).

I'm getting nervous with my shorts again, even if they with S/L in profit zone... just get the DAX to 5900 and lets get it over with!

I already know, with my luck its going to turn around after it stops me

I wouldn't bet too heavily against the DAX. Strong performance over the last six years or so. They are not about to roll over just like that. If it were the the FTSE, NIKKIE, DOW, I would go ahead. I personally would target 6200 which I see a support on the Weekly chart. If it breaks convincingly, then 5400 is another major support area. What does your analysis tell you? Are you applying Elliot Waves or something else?

That's just my observation. Good Luck!

Nothing like a obsession-with-blonde-celebrity news to forget the dead market...

"Paris met her guru in Los Angeles attempting to get rid of material goods fixation. Here's the outcome"

http://ce.i.uol.com.br/album/2008030...20080304173956

The poor guru needs therapy now

After spending some time with her, I bet he does.

Yep, but be careful there. The strong bearish action looks to be setting decent prices for AUD bulls (who are the strongest of the */USD pack imho) and now H4 shows a "reversal of the reversal". Take care folks

Thanks!

Good day mates...

Looks like market is picking up some steam this morning....

HOLLA

Good Morning!

From what I can gather, someone or a bunch of individuals / entities are buying the Dollar..... Something fishy going on......Can't put my finger on it yet.

I use EWT but just for a main overview of the market... it is too unspecific to use it on actual trading decisions but I find it usefull to watch to get a sense of market direction... even that is hard.

At the moment I have seen various analysts with different counts. Some claim we're in Wave 1, others in Wave 4 and others in Wave 5. I find it impossible to tell until the pattern unfolds and then it will be too late to trade it anyway... however, in all those 3 scenarios DAX and DOW should aproach the lows of last January or even go further below (if we are to see a Wave 5).

For actual trading decisions I mainly look at price action at key points. Key points for me are Fib levels and trendlines I draw in my charts... this allows me to make some money even if I'm totally wrong in EWT

and selling yen...

scoured the net for any news but can't find any. Anyone have any idea's? Maybe th Asian's strengthening the $ or the Europeans (highly doubt it)?

Morning all, wassup?

Damn range in most pairs...

Hillary still breathing! :

Actor's manhood is airbrushed out

The Royal Opera House has said it will stop using a promotional poster after an actor complained it had airbrushed out his manhood.


Juan Pablo Di Pace, 28, was cast in the crowd scenes of Verdi's mid-19th Century opera Rigoletto in 2001.

His naked image was used on posters to advertise later Rigoletto productions - even though he was not in them.

The Royal Opera House said it will stop using the image after the actor "expressed his discontent".

Argentinian-born Mr Di Pace, now a TV and film actor, complained the image has been distorted, and that his penis had been airbrushed out.

The Royal Opera House in Covent Garden, central London, said it said it had manipulated the original photograph in a number of ways, including at one time adding a cape to cover the part of his anatomy at the centre of the dispute.



When Rigoletto is next performed in 2009, the actor will not feature in any image publicising the production, it said.

Spokesman Christopher Millard said: "The poster was a generic image of the production.
"When we begin publicising a show we don't always have pictures of the lead singer so it is common for us to use a photograph we have in stock.

"Juan Pablo has been in contact with us through one of his representatives and expressed his discontent and we have agreed that we will no longer be using this particular image."

A spokesman for the actor said he was in Argentina and could not be contacted.

Mr Di Pace has appeared in the Catherine Tate show, in the BBC show Aftersun and features in this year's Hollywood adaptation of Mamma Mia!


Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/h...on/7278684.stm

Published: 2008/03/05 08:24:40 GMT

BBC MMVIII

Is the Dollar Near the Bottom?


DOLLAR, EURO, CURRENCIES, BEN BERNANKE, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF ENGLAND, FED
By Antonia Oprita,




Associate Web Producer
CNBC.com
| 05 Mar 2008 | 04:24 AM ET


The battered U.S. dollar may be near the bottom of its weakening cycle, but a recovery rally will take a while to materialize, because big uncertainties still hang over the U.S. economy, analysts told CNBC.com.

The greenback may sink even further if bad news continues, but traders and analysts predict it will hover between $1.52 and $1.53 against the euro in the medium term.


"There's plenty of stop-levels at the $1.53 mark," Alex Edwards, senior corporate dealer at UK Forex Limited, told CNBC.com.

The U.S. currency does not seem able to break the $1.5270 level for one euro, which is now seen as a psychological one, Edwards added.

The euro hit a record high, reaching $1.5275 before retreating again on Monday, and worried European leaders called on U.S. authorities to do more to halt the dollar's slide.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England hold monetary policy meetings on Thursday and both are expected to keep rates on hold, as they struggle to fight rising inflation caused by increasing food and energy prices.

Buying Opportunities?
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson repeated his mantra that the fundamentals of the U.S economy are strong and that they will be reflected in the currency. And this time, analysts say, he may have a point.

"At the moment, everything looks so bad for the U.S. and so good for Europe, that we think the level is very good for buying dollars," Felix Adam, from ACT Currency Partners in Zurich, told CNBC.com.


"Personally, I think all the negative fundamentals are priced in. Even the 75-basis-points rate cut by the U.S. is priced in. We need to have more aggressive news to move it," Adam added.

The moment for the reversal is hard to predict, but it could be triggered by verbal intervention from European central banks.

"Surely, companies in Europe are not happy any more with the strong currency," Adam said.

From a technical analysis perspective, a bounce-back rally which had been anticipated before the dollar reached its new low against the single European currency has been delayed, and a comfortable level is considered to be around $1.54, Tom Hobson, technical analyst at Merrill Lynch, told "Power Lunch Europe".

Dollar Crisis?
Nevertheless, this level could be blown away if the greenback's credibility takes another hit.

"Are we in a dollar crisis? If we're in a dollar crisis, you're going to see the market move up above $1.60," Hobson said.

The U.S. currency's supremacy has been hit by a looming recession, a yawning current account gap and the fallout of the subprime crisis. But these are not likely to affect it in the long term, some analysts say.


"We know very clearly from Mr. Bernanke and the Fed that they're willing to keep the short-term interest rate trend on a downward path and that's allowing people to take a short trade in the dollar," Chris Tinker from ICAP told "Worldwide Exchange."

"I really don't think this is anything to do with long-term fundamental balance of payments considerations, I really don't think the dollar is structurally flawed," Tinker added.

Like him, many believe that once the Fed is done cutting, the greenback will bounce back quite sharply.

The dollar could rise by around 15 percent in the next year or two, said Adam, who expects it to firm to around $1.35 against the euro within that horizon, as the ECB will have to cut rates eventually.

"How long can Europe survive the decoupled interest rates? Discrepancies cannot last too long. That (situation) cannot go on for another six months," Adam said.

2008 CNBC.com
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23478486/

Euro Falls on Speculation Trichet to Voice Concern Over Gains

By Gavin Finch and Stanley White

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell against the dollar, retreating from a record high, on speculation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will voice concern about the strength of the common currency after a policy meeting tomorrow.

European finance ministers said yesterday they are ``increasingly concerned'' the euro's 16 percent gain against the dollar in the past 12 months will curb exports and economic growth. The dollar rebounded after dropping to $1.5250, a level at which some traders had orders to buy the U.S. currency, said Neil Jones at Mizuho Capital Markets.

``The euro at these levels is setting off a load of alarm bells for a lot of politicians and central bankers in Europe,'' said Jones, head of European hedge fund sales in London at Mizuho. ``I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw some verbal intervention'' after tomorrow's ECB meeting.

The euro declined to $1.5192 at 10:20 a.m. in London, from $1.5217 yesterday in New York and $1.5275 two days ago, the highest since the currency's inception in 1999. The dollar traded at 103.65 yen from 103.37. It reached 102.62 yen on March 3, the weakest since Jan. 28, 2005. The euro was at 157.46 yen from 157.30.

The U.S. government's ``strong dollar'' policy is ``very important,'' Trichet said in Brussels yesterday. Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said in a radio interview European officials need to be ``vigilant, concerned'' on the euro exchange rate.

U.K. Pound
The pound dropped to a record against the euro and the most in two weeks against the dollar after a report showed consumer confidence is weakening, reinforcing the case for the Bank of England to lower interest rates after its policy meeting ends tomorrow. The pound declined as low as 76.89 pence per euro and traded at 76.79 pence, from 76.60 pence yesterday. It was at $1.9786 from $1.9864.

``The weight of negative news has taken its toll'' on the pound, Hans-Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA, one of the world's 10 biggest currency traders, wrote in a note to clients today. ``Our medium-term outlook for sterling remains bearish with further negative news on the horizon.''

Australia's dollar fell to 92.40 U.S. cents from 92.76 cents after a government report showed the nation's economy grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in the fourth quarter.

The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on signs that its decline to a three-year low was excessive. The U.S. currency's 14-day relative strength index on a weekly chart was at 31.3 today, after dropping to 28.09 yesterday. A reading below 30 often indicates a reversal is likely.

Jobs, Services
Gains for the dollar may be limited before reports that economists predict will show companies last month hired the fewest workers in almost five years and service industries shrank in February for a second month.

The reports may add to the case for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates. Policy makers are ``carefully'' evaluating economic information and ``will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth,'' Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in testimony on Feb. 27.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show 70 percent odds of a three-quarter percentage point reduction in the Fed's target rate to 2.25 percent on March 18. That's up from zero odds a week ago. The balance of bets is for a half-percentage point cut.

Businesses added 18,000 workers to their payrolls in February, the fewest since July 2003, ADP Employer Services will say, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The report is due at 8:15 a.m. in Washington.

ISM Report
The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, covering almost 90 percent of the economy, rose to 47.3 from a record low of 44.6, according to the median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey. Readings less than 50 signal contraction. The report is due at 10 a.m.

``The U.S. dollar remains in overshoot mode and we remain long euro as a trade recommendation, targeting a rise to $1.56 with stop losses at $1.5020,'' Ashley Davies, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG, the world's second-largest foreign-exchange trader, wrote in a note to clients today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gavin Finch in London at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]; Stanley White in Tokyo at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
Last Updated: March 5, 2008 05:22 EST

long Dollar long?