Commodity Currencies

Good fill.

Long the dollar? No thanks. GBPCAD is more like it.

I cut half my possie at 9900 for a 13 pip loss FWIW

tp at 9963 +37 overall....Man I should have gotten WAAAAAAAAAAY more out of this trade. BUT good money management isn't free sometimes, pays off in the long run though. I'm outta here...cheers

Weak GDP has moved the aussie into the next daily fibo zone. 1 hr and 4 hr oscillators have moved into a bearish cycle with dailies testing bullish support.

I'm short from 9260 with stops above the daily high FWIW

took half profits at 9238 stop for remaining half just above daily high. free trade now...i love good money management

Kiwi's second bounce of 7920 has brought a lower high to 61.8% fib at 8033, last time was 50% fib at 8070. Oscillator, RSI(14), is in a bearish cycle like aussie in lower time frames and daily is moving beneath key bullish support at 53. If closes below 53 I'm looking for deeper move.

Date 6 March 2008
Time 9:00am


OCR unchanged at 8.25 percent


The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain unchanged at 8.25 percent.


Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "The outlook for economic
activity has deteriorated somewhat since we reviewed the OCR in January.
The main reasons are weaker prospects for world growth, tighter credit
conditions, a sharper-than-expected slowing in the housing market, and
recent dry weather conditions. On balance, we now expect GDP growth of
around 2 percent over the next three years.


"Despite the weaker outlook for activity, we expect headline inflation
to remain high, partly due to the inclusion of the planned emissions
trading scheme in our projection. Higher food and energy prices are
also contributing to near-term inflation. Furthermore, over the medium
term, a tight labour market, strength in commodity prices, and the
impact of announced government spending plans and assumed personal tax
cuts will add to inflationary pressure. Excluding the effects of the
emissions trading scheme, inflation is projected to return close to the
mid-point of the target band by 2010.


"There is more uncertainty than usual at present, with downside risks to
activity and upside risks to inflation. The main downside risks are a
further deterioration in the world economy, tighter credit conditions,
and the potential for a more severe downturn in the housing market.
Conversely, further strength in labour costs, additional fiscal
stimulus, and high inflation expectations represent key upside risks to
underlying inflation.


"Given this outlook, we expect that the OCR will need to remain at
current levels for a significant time yet to ensure inflation outcomes
of 1 to 3 percent on average over the medium term."

I have committed a cardinal sin in trading. I tried to fit a square peg in a round hole. Fortunately, I don't have one losing trade because of it (thank you MM). :surprised

I based my latest analysis on a medium to low volatility market with semi defined ranges. I think ranges will be found sooner before later but with volatile swings. Oscillator studies are not good in these conditions and I dropped the ball on that.

Friday, assuming horrible US job data, might just be the next "unwind" on the schedule.

I'm starting to feel a good ole fashioned carry/DOW thumping....

See and here I thought it was just the Prosciutto and Grappa for lunch that was causing that :

It bent but didn't break. Probably tomorrow.

Dutch, you making me hungry now. Gotta take some lunch

What college cafeteria is this!? Hungry indeed.

:rofl there's a Italian place right off campus

Based on my assumption that NFP will be horrible and DOW will tank I am short aussie at 9330.

Tex,

The DOW is at the all important level of 12,000. DOW futures are pointing to an opening below that level. Yikes!

scex

Based on 9383 - 9245 fibo lines I added a half short at 9350 and will do again at 9380 if seen.

Texas,

Beware of the rumour circulating of an emergency fed cut after the NFP. Futures bounced into positive after this rumour was publicized

Dutch, what's your source?

Bloomberg and CNBC both mentioned it on their newscasts

Fisher won't vote for it, but he's only one vote.

Yep, but I think that'll be a fools rally imvho. Of course I'll grab my pips on the way up and down

Looking good unless "Bedward Scissorhands" comes in chopping and slashing

took some profits at 9290
closed at 9308
+39 1.5 lots