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  • #261
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:18pm Feb 27, 2008 6:18pm
If someone put a gun to my head and made me trade for my life tonight....
I would say continued dollar weakness and then a reversal Friday.

Seriously though, I really don't see good entries currently. Everything is "overbought"....whatever that REALLY means. Honestly, most traders don't realize that oscillators (which RSI is and is the most abused indicator) are "normalized". Basically, that means the equation that calculates this value keeps climbing infinitely but the magnitude it increases drops dramatically at higher levels.

Analogy:

A man moves 1/2 the distance towards a wall every time price increases 10 pips. 10ft turns into 5ft into 2.5ft into 1.25ft etc...
After 500 pips the distance is in centimeters. Will the man ever hit the wall though? No he won't EVER.

This extreme is very important in current market conditions. When extreme variables are introduced into a market. (strongly strongly trending) "Overbought" is the most dangerous word a trader can utter.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #262
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:23pm Feb 27, 2008 7:23pm
Texas,

Excellent stuff. The Aud just registered a post float high, and yet there are more orders at 9465
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #263
  • Feb 28, 2008 1:35am Feb 28, 2008 1:35am
I just got a sell signal on kiwi at 8121.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #264
  • Feb 28, 2008 3:06am Feb 28, 2008 3:06am
Quoting TexasforEX
I just got a sell signal on kiwi at 8121.
Stopped it at 8148 FWIW
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #265
  • Feb 28, 2008 7:24am Feb 28, 2008 7:24am
Quoting TexasforEX
I just got a sell signal on kiwi at 8121.
Here we go again.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #266
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:25pm Feb 28, 2008 5:25pm
It's a shame my indicators gave me permission to sell the kiwi yesterday. Market conditions were obviously and extremely dollar negative but the kiwi is "ahead of the curve" in terms of a dollar retracement. I made a mistake in not recognizing this and it cost me 27 piperoos. Not to mention an early entry on my second short (which I avg'd up to 8138).

I believe trading is an art and there are nuances that separate avg from good from great traders. Factoring in overall market conditions into each trade signal is something I SHOULD do on every single trade I make....Forever a student said Sam I Am.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #267
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:41pm Feb 28, 2008 5:41pm
you mean you shorted it yesterday , before daily close? you know becaue of you, i am in this trade, i entered in it when it retraced in the newyork session . what do you think, this will be short lived? thanks
regards
Quoting TexasforEX
It's a shame my indicators gave me permission to sell the kiwi yesterday. Market conditions were obviously and extremely dollar negative but the kiwi is "ahead of the curve" in terms of a dollar retracement. I made a mistake in not recognizing this and it cost me 27 piperoos. Not to mention an early entry on my second short (which I avg'd up to 8138).

I believe trading is an art and there are nuances that separate avg from good from great traders. Factoring in overall market conditions into each trade signal is something I SHOULD do on every single trade I make....Forever a student said Sam I Am.
  • #268
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:46pm Feb 28, 2008 5:46pm
HOLD ON JUST A SEC PAL.

What exactly is your point? I accept zero responsibility for your trade. I am short from 8138 as stated. Better do your own homework pal because I offer no refunds. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #269
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:03pm Feb 28, 2008 6:03pm
well i am not blaming bro you for this infact i want to thank you because i checked the chart after reading your comments and i saw the pair had already broken the low of yesterday's low and then it was retracing so i waited for it and entered at .8170 with a s/l of 45 pips and i am in with small position so everything is fine with me. i want to appologise if it sounded wrong mate. thanks
regards
Quoting TexasforEX
HOLD ON JUST A SEC PAL.

What exactly is your point? I accept zero responsibility for your trade. I am short from 8138 as stated. Better do your own homework pal because I offer no refunds. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
  • #270
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:03pm Feb 28, 2008 6:03pm
Aussie is moving nicely. 9390/9405 will be good support now
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #271
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:06pm Feb 28, 2008 6:06pm
Quoting kenneith
well i am not blaming bro you for this infact i want to thank you because i checked the chart after reading your comments and i saw the pair had already broken the low of yesterday's low and then it was retracing so i waited for it and entered at .8170 with a s/l of 45 pips and i am in with small position so everything is fine with me. i want to appologise if it sounded wrong mate. thanks
regards
OK Good. Glad to hear you used my analysis in a positive way. Your post did sound very accusatory and that would have been "No Bueno".

Moving on, kiwi's lack of making a new high yesterday coupled with continued marginal fundamental news does make it ripe for a continued correction. 8025/8030 probably won't break tomorrow IMO.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #272
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:04am Feb 29, 2008 3:04am
Kiwi is forming a wedge on the hourlies
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #273
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:10am Feb 29, 2008 5:10am
I feel good
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #274
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:15am Feb 29, 2008 5:15am
closed for nice pips at 8050 and 9370
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #275
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:17am Feb 29, 2008 5:17am
Quoting TexasforEX
closed for nice pips at 8050 and 9370
8070 was a significant break. Once the Chi PMI comes out we'll get another round of selling. Good times.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #276
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:18am Feb 29, 2008 5:18am
Quoting DutchTrader
8070 was a significant break. Once the Chi PMI comes out we'll get another round of selling. Good times.
We might have just seen the daily low on kiwi dutch. I'll post when I reshort
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #277
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:19am Feb 29, 2008 5:19am
Quoting TexasforEX
We might have just seen the daily low on kiwi dutch. I'll post when I reshort
Cool. Looking forward to your thoughts.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #278
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:02am Feb 29, 2008 6:02am
When USD Index 75 broke I started to see the market playing out with continued dollar weakness with massive spikes (unwinds) down. In the long term picture, these beautifully vicious downmoves are just opportunities to reestablish longs.

Longs shouldn't even been considered yet but I like to keep a long term vision of the market while chasing pips in the short term...
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #279
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:44am Feb 29, 2008 6:44am
I got the aussie from 9386 just grabbed 45 but i didn't get the kiwi.

9300 is very possible today in aussie but kiwi is tougher....
8020 was top of channel and is 23.6% of 7383 - 8212
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #280
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:54am Feb 29, 2008 6:54am
Quoting TexasforEX
I got the aussie from 9386 just grabbed 45 but i didn't get the kiwi.

9300 is very possible today in aussie but kiwi is tougher....
8020 was top of channel and is 23.6% of 7383 - 8212
I'm eyeng 9275
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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