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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,461
  • Mar 4, 2008 7:39am Mar 4, 2008 7:39am
Now market is definitly waiting for something, the water is still.
After Bernancke's talking soon, maybe market will find the direction.
Till now I have not find any chance to pull the trigger.
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,462
  • Mar 4, 2008 7:56am Mar 4, 2008 7:56am
Quoting Pipsquek
Hello all,

Great strategy/thread.
Have been trading on Demo account for the past 2 months.

In the process of getting a live account set up with Oanda.

Anyway, just went long EUR/GBP

Buy: 0.7659
stop: 0.7625
target: 0.7690

Reasons.
1. 4hr, Price pulled back to 21 EMA. Candle pattern suggests trend continuation.
2. 4hr, MACD TC
3. 1hr, candle reversal pattern which also respected the 89 SMA
4. Daily, broken out to multi year high.

Any comments - agree/disagree with any part of the trade?


Hello Pipsquek,

Welcome to the thread. I agree with the ideas behind your trade and wish you well with it. I do have some reservations, however. It looks like the E/G is caught in a triangle and could break out to either side. The high on the daily corresponds with an inside bottom (IB) level on the monthly, which makes it a pre-exisiting S/R level from many years ago. It may respect this, or it may ignore it, but it's always a heads up to acknowledge that it's there. If you want to find out about IB and IT levels, do a search on this thread for Tamkras's posts - they are from the early days and they're pure gold!!

I don't know much about fundamentals and stuff, but I feel that both EUR and GBP are in some sort of limbo, not sure where to go. Personally, I would rather wait and see which way they go and then join in.

GU is caught in a triangle on ALL higher TF's - daily is squashed between the 89sma and 365 & 8 ema's; weekly is squeezing between 21ema and 89sma, and the monthly is getting squished by the 8 and 21ema's. There's tails everywhere on the 4hr... I wonder what Mr Bernanke will say later on...

EU in the looooongest consolidation / side move.

Methinks this week is going to get a bit crazy!!
Attached Image
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #12,463
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:16am Mar 4, 2008 8:16am
Hi Bags.
What do you think of the JPY? It has a nice curvature right now. Possibly another down move on the way?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #12,464
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:22am Mar 4, 2008 8:22am
Look at the 4H chart and the red boxes - those are 4H pullbacks - 1H corrective cycles. You really need to look at the 1H to see the price movement within those 4H pullbacks.

Notice how just before the 4H pullback there was a significant price trending action usually breaking a swing hi/lo - we are assuming a trend continuation of the previous move once the the pullback or 1H corrective cycle is complete. So we obviously want to position ourself for the next leg of the trending move.

Notice the price movement and see how nicely it fits into Phillip's Rhythm. Now go into the 1H and look at the 4H pullbacks in detailed - look at all 7 of those red boxed areas - for a clearer picture draw a fib across the previous trend move. Do you see how similiar these corrective cycles are and how they behave?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h2.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #12,465
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:23am Mar 4, 2008 8:23am
Quoting Palmer
freddi:

Corrective cycles may be easier to spot on a longer term chart along with the 4 hr. Say the EU keeps chugging along and pulls back to the 21 for a TC but closes below it, makes its way down to the 89 and maybe the 200. This could take several days to play out. You could say that the 4hr is in a corrective cycle as long as the daily is still bullish. If the daily breaks down below the 21 then you would look towards the weekly. I don't follow cycles too much but I believe longer timeframe (daily/weekly) traders do because they are riding the long term trend, months, years??? especially with stocks. Since we are '4hr traders' we can more or less trade the cycles. Longer term people may just view these as the natural progression of the trend.

This is just the way I see it...

Thanks Palmer and maxster
  • #12,466
  • Edited 9:55am Mar 4, 2008 8:25am | Edited 9:55am
Hi, I think than on the jpy the situation is similar to eur. We have the same fib level 162 as a support line. So unless is going under that level I wouldn't trade. You could enter now short with a SL on the daily pivot and TP that fib level.
My 2 cents.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 4h.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #12,467
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:25am Mar 4, 2008 8:25am
Quoting Hookem28
Hi Bags.
What do you think of the JPY? It has a nice curvature right now. Possibly another down move on the way?
yes,3 doji and then a nice red h4.but i didnt take that because price is now very near to the monthly levels
  • #12,468
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:33am Mar 4, 2008 8:33am
Quoting Hookem28
Hi Bags.
What do you think of the JPY? It has a nice curvature right now. Possibly another down move on the way?
Hiya Hookem,

I have been looking at U/J all day wondering what to do with it! The set-up looks good as a RT against the 8ema.... BUT, the level we are at now seems to have been a strong S/R level since 1999 (zoom out on the weekly chart and you will see what I mean). This certainly doesn't mean that the set-up can be ignored and if your instinct is to go for it, then go for it... but my instinct is saying to wait. If it breaks below the previous low, I'll certainly be interested! The gap has been closed and the USD isn't in a great place fundamentally, so short seems a very strong possibility!

I think what has put me off, apart from the S/R level, is the possible inverted sHs on the MACD, as well as it being in the heavily oversold area until recently. I know it's out of that now, but not with any real movement on the chart itself. I'm no expert on this and am new to the U/J, and that's why I'm not in.

Sorry for the rambling answer... probably not helped you much at all!

Bags,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #12,469
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:35am Mar 4, 2008 8:35am
Special thanks goes out to 'fxlv'...The first to click on the 'Donate' button on the site.

Latvia Rules!

Thanks again.
  • #12,470
  • Mar 4, 2008 8:39am Mar 4, 2008 8:39am
Quoting maxster
Look at the 4H chart and the red boxes - those are 4H pullbacks - 1H corrective cycles. You really need to look at the 1H to see the price movement within those 4H pullbacks.

Notice how just before the 4H pullback there was a significant price trending action usually breaking a swing hi/lo - we are assuming a trend continuation of the previous move once the the pullback or 1H corrective cycle is complete. So we obviously want to position ourself for the next leg of the trending move.

Notice the price movement and see how nicely it fits into Phillip's Rhythm. Now go into the 1H and look at the 4H pullbacks in detailed - look at all 7 of those red boxed areas - for a clearer picture draw a fib across the previous trend move. Do you see how similiar these corrective cycles are and how they behave?

Thanks maxter - a really good example and a very important principle to grasp and learn. With your and many others help, I and no doubt others are getting closer to our AHA moment

freddi
  • #12,471
  • Edited 10:22am Mar 4, 2008 8:48am | Edited 10:22am
Good feedback on the Yen.
I was concerned about the long term resistance, but the candlestick patterns and slope around the 8 EMA has proven to be a high probability trade in the past.
I'm in the trade with my first TP above the previous low (102.71). My SL is larger than I'd like, but the wicks get me on the JPY when I have a small SL.

1st TP hit (+30)
The rest is set at BE (103.05)
  • #12,472
  • Mar 4, 2008 10:09am Mar 4, 2008 10:09am
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 04 March2008.zip   444 KB | 790 downloads
  • #12,473
  • Mar 4, 2008 10:13am Mar 4, 2008 10:13am
MACD TC off the 21ema. This is more a positional trade to be in if it breaks to the upside. Will take 50% profit after 25pips and set rest at BE
Entry 1.5221
Stoploss 1.5181
TP 1.5261

Edit 1
Close 50% for +25pips. Set remainder to BE

Edit 2
Remainder closed out at BE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #12,474
  • Mar 4, 2008 10:50am Mar 4, 2008 10:50am
Hi,

maybe there will be a long opportunity on gbp/usd soon.
Price is in a symmentrical triangle that usualy indicates a TC.
Actually the lower TL gets tested. If that holds one should
watch out for a long entry according to market motion rules.

What do you think?

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #12,475
  • Mar 4, 2008 11:34am Mar 4, 2008 11:34am
Hookem28, I did almost exactly the same trade. I am trying to figure out where to put my 2nd take profit though. Are your from Texas?
  • #12,476
  • Mar 4, 2008 11:46am Mar 4, 2008 11:46am
Daily Wrap Up, written copy for those with difficulty understanding spoken English.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc PhillipNel DailyWrapUp 4Mar2008.doc   4 KB | 541 downloads
  • #12,477
  • Mar 4, 2008 11:56am Mar 4, 2008 11:56am
hi dear palmer
its very looks like your eurusd early entry.does it can be an early h1 entry?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #12,478
  • Mar 4, 2008 12:07pm Mar 4, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting vette1974
Hookem28, I did almost exactly the same trade. I am trying to figure out where to put my 2nd take profit though. Are your from Texas?
Nice trade Vette. Glad to have company. I live part time in Austin, TX and part time in Colorado.
I'm going to let the trade run. If it breaks through, we could make quite a few pips. If it doesn't, I'll pocket the 15 and be done with it.
  • #12,479
  • Mar 4, 2008 12:17pm Mar 4, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi dear palmer
its very looks like your eurusd early entry.does it can be an early h1 entry?
bshadroo:

I've never traded the Aussie. But, since the 4hr closed below the 21 several times that would have told me that the bull trend is weakening and I would have waited until the 4hr comes down to the 89, if it did. It's hard to make a call on a market that I haven't been watching. Looking back, for the price to come back to the 21 on the 4hr: The 1hr found support at the 200 with a bull candle and this would have been worth a few back to the upside. Again, this would be an aggressive trade on the 1hr for a return of price action back to the 21 on the 4hr. I try to spot a reason for the bull candle on the 1hr to come back up.

1hr/4hr
Attached Images
  • #12,480
  • Mar 4, 2008 12:25pm Mar 4, 2008 12:25pm
I took this trade earlier on the EU:

Simple MACD green entry. The close on the 4hr and 1hr was higher than the last several candles. Exited one for 25 (barely), b/e on the other. Until we get out of this channel I'm being conservative and not looking for a whole lot.
Attached Image
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