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My Daily Fozzy Trades

  • #121
  • Jan 15, 2007 3:59am Jan 15, 2007 3:59am
Quoting willf
Hmmm. Strange, they were ok earlier on.

Perhaps the upgrade over the weekend has messed something up on the FF server ?
I had the same problem, only codes.
Regards
  • #122
  • Jan 15, 2007 8:14am Jan 15, 2007 8:14am
Hi there,

I've decided to step back and demo trade fozzy for a while.

The changes I've made for this are to:
a) take every trade.
b) set no target point
c) set the stops at 50% ATR(20) or the previous day's high/low if it's close enough. The stop is moved to break even on the second day and moved up on subsequent days using 50% ATR.

This was in part inspired by reading steviet's journal - great read if you've got time.

I'll also be backtesting this over the days ahead just to reassure myself that the fozzy crosses give valid signals.
With a trend following system like this where there are lots of little losses and break-evens with major pips gain only once in a while, I'll really need to look at two years data to get an idea of how viable it is. You can see how well it has worked on cable and pound crosses this/last week for example.

I want to forward test for 2 months too on demo but I'll probably get impatient and dive in before that!
I'm also going through Nison's "Candlestick Course" at the moment - I hope to combine the two (fozzy & candles) in the future.

But anyway, taking every trade means a journal is kind of redundant so I won't be posting my trades anymore. I'll try to post my backtest results to get some comments, maybe monthly performance and any other stuff that pops into my head.

Hope people keep posting their trades here or in a new thread maybe entitled "Everyone's fozzy trades".

All the best
Michael
  • #123
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:00am Jan 15, 2007 10:00am
Michael

Also please have a look at the thread called RSI Daily Pivot System by KHarvell which is very similar to Daily Fozzy with no targets.

Targets are like Steviet's method, exit on stop only.
Regards
  • #124
  • Jan 15, 2007 12:25pm Jan 15, 2007 12:25pm
poek,

hows the cable going for you..

i have moved my sl to 50 when it touched + 70 pips.. unfortunately i dont have trailing s/l on oanda.. so i will leave where it is for now.



Quoting poekmeister
Cool, I will take this one. Looks solid.

Fresian, thanks for the update! Thanks this will be interesting to follow.

ps.
I have carried the GBPCAD position over the weekend am currently 45pips in green country

Poek
  • #125
  • Jan 15, 2007 12:32pm Jan 15, 2007 12:32pm
all three seem to be valid willf fozzy crosses.. in my charts the audusd and eurjpy have crosses the rsi50 only today..

eurchf long cross: not too comfortable about this.. seems to be touching the last 3 months historical high.. doubt i will take this

eurjpy: seems more promising.. strong uptrend

audusd: undecided. might enter with very tight sl and tp.
  • #126
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:16pm Jan 15, 2007 2:16pm
Quoting coolshades
poek,

hows the cable going for you..

i have moved my sl to 50 when it touched + 70 pips.. unfortunately i dont have trailing s/l on oanda.. so i will leave where it is for now.
Cool,

GBPUSD - 15 Jan
Entry: 1.9592
S/L: 1,9532
TP1: 1,9622 (R/R 0,5)
TP2: 1,9707 (R/R 1,92)

My first TP was hit at +30 (I traded at the open today, not the close on Friday, which would have given +8 for the gap). Currently holding another +47 for the 2nd lot and moving stops to B/E.
  • #127
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:24pm Jan 15, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting the bhoy
Hi there,

I've decided to step back and demo trade fozzy for a while.

The changes I've made for this are to:
a) take every trade.
b) set no target point
c) set the stops at 50% ATR(20) or the previous day's high/low if it's close enough. The stop is moved to break even on the second day and moved up on subsequent days using 50% ATR.

This was in part inspired by reading steviet's journal - great read if you've got time.

I'll also be backtesting this over the days ahead just to reassure myself that the fozzy crosses give valid signals.
With a trend following system like this where there are lots of little losses and break-evens with major pips gain only once in a while, I'll really need to look at two years data to get an idea of how viable it is. You can see how well it has worked on cable and pound crosses this/last week for example.

I want to forward test for 2 months too on demo but I'll probably get impatient and dive in before that!
I'm also going through Nison's "Candlestick Course" at the moment - I hope to combine the two (fozzy & candles) in the future.

But anyway, taking every trade means a journal is kind of redundant so I won't be posting my trades anymore. I'll try to post my backtest results to get some comments, maybe monthly performance and any other stuff that pops into my head.

Hope people keep posting their trades here or in a new thread maybe entitled "Everyone's fozzy trades".

All the best
Michael
Hi Michael,

I am avid follower of this thread and of Steviet's. I have one queation regarding the stops using ATR.

Lets say your ATR for your entry candle is .0100 (for a long trade). Then you will set your stop at "entry price - .0050). The next day do you use the ATR for the new candle... or do you continue with a .0050 stop?
  • #128
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:38pm Jan 15, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting coolshades
all three seem to be valid willf fozzy crosses.. in my charts the audusd and eurjpy have crosses the rsi50 only today..

eurchf long cross: not too comfortable about this.. seems to be touching the last 3 months historical high.. doubt i will take this

eurjpy: seems more promising.. strong uptrend

audusd: undecided. might enter with very tight sl and tp.
Cool, in the weekend I went through 1 year of data for 2 pairs using F12 to step through bar-by-bar and calling the shot at each signal. I made several observations:
1. When the SOLARWIND indicator is green, declining and approaching 0, we usually see a stalling uptrend.
2. Whenever SOLARWIND switches color (so first red bar or first green bar) we usually see a solid entry signal
3. Whenever SOLARWIND is "rather high" number the slope is not so relevant, color is...
4. FX SNIPER T3-CCI is a good early indicator.

So let's apply to the 3 candidate trades for today,

EURCHF:
= Willf cross
= Strong uptrend, Price at outer Vegas bands and approaching 3 Month highs
= Solarwind indicator declining, green and close to zero
=> I will not trade

EURJPY (SEE PICTURE BELOW):
= Willf cross
= Uptrend, price recently broke down Tunnel bands to touch EMA50 and bounced back above tunnel. Current bar seems indecisive.
= Solarwind indicator is inclining, red and close to zero. Tomorrow it will probably produce first green bar.
= 8-period FX SnipersT3-CCI just went green
=> Two options:
a) Enter today for a risky trade. Maybe enter on limit buy @ tunnel.
b) Wait until tomorrow for better confirmation. As I am paper trading, I will enter probably.

AUDUSD:
=Willf cross
= Uptrend, price recently broke down Tunnel bands to touch EMA50 and bounced back above tunnel. Current bar seems indecisive.
= Solarwind indicator is inclining, red and close to zero. Tomorrow it will probably produce first green bar.
= 8-period FX SnipersT3-CCI just is still red
=> Two options:
a) Enter today for a risky trade. Maybe enter on limit buy @ tunnel.
b) Wait until tomorrow for better confirmation. As I am paper trading, I will enter probably.

I will post my trades a bit later.

Poek
Attached Image
  • #129
  • Jan 15, 2007 3:14pm Jan 15, 2007 3:14pm
My entries for today:
Attached Image
  • #130
  • Jan 15, 2007 4:22pm Jan 15, 2007 4:22pm
hi,

can someone post the following indicator?

FX SnipersT3-CCI

thank you

mxb
  • #131
  • Jan 15, 2007 4:25pm Jan 15, 2007 4:25pm
Quoting mxb
hi,

can someone post the following indicator?

FX SnipersT3-CCI

thank you

mxb
Here ya go
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FX Sniper's T3 CCI.mq4   3 KB | 325 downloads
  • #132
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:53pm Jan 15, 2007 5:53pm
I had these 2 trades today in addition to eurjpy. My charts showed a cross for the audusd yesterday, but only ever so slightly with RSI at 50.07. So my entries on the other two were:

nzdusd: long
entry - 0.6970
S/L - 0.6924
TP1 and 2 - 0.7003 and 0.7058

audnzd: short
entry - 1.1254
S/L - 1.1299
TP1 and 2 - 1.1221 and 1.1166

I also sat out eurchf.

Cheers.
  • #133
  • Jan 16, 2007 5:12am Jan 16, 2007 5:12am
are you also trading willf fozzy?

Quoting fresian
I had these 2 trades today in addition to eurjpy. My charts showed a cross for the audusd yesterday, but only ever so slightly with RSI at 50.07. So my entries on the other two were:

nzdusd: long
entry - 0.6970
S/L - 0.6924
TP1 and 2 - 0.7003 and 0.7058

audnzd: short
entry - 1.1254
S/L - 1.1299
TP1 and 2 - 1.1221 and 1.1166

I also sat out eurchf.

Cheers.
  • #134
  • Jan 16, 2007 6:31am Jan 16, 2007 6:31am
cool,

Yeah, that's correct. Does anyone else have these setups on nzdusd and audnzd or are there reasons why people are not trading these pairs/setups?

Thanks..
  • #135
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:31am Jan 16, 2007 9:31am
i got sled for 30 pips profit.. i placed this trrade on my spreadbet account and they dont have the facility of lot sizes..,my sl was tightly placed.. shame, since its gone + 100 pips since entry

Quoting poekmeister
Cool,

GBPUSD - 15 Jan
Entry: 1.9592
S/L: 1,9532
TP1: 1,9622 (R/R 0,5)
TP2: 1,9707 (R/R 1,92)

My first TP was hit at +30 (I traded at the open today, not the close on Friday, which would have given +8 for the gap). Currently holding another +47 for the 2nd lot and moving stops to B/E.
  • #136
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:40am Jan 16, 2007 9:40am
i do.. but those two slipped my radar, else the willf cross did not happen yesterday.. i dont remember now..

today the only willf cross that seems to be shaping up is the chfjpy.. the fozzy cross occured a day back but only today the rsi has inched above 50

Quoting fresian
cool,

Yeah, that's correct. Does anyone else have these setups on nzdusd and audnzd or are there reasons why people are not trading these pairs/setups?

Thanks..
  • #137
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:47am Jan 16, 2007 9:47am
I don't track NZD at this moment. CHFJPY i have a cross 3 days back, and only today RSI>50. According to Willf rules this is not an entry.

I was lucky with the open Cable trade. I changed TP to 1.9700 (round number!) and it got hit baggin 108 pips prior to the news tanking cable down to 1.9602 (where my S/L was).

Poek
  • #138
  • Jan 16, 2007 10:26am Jan 16, 2007 10:26am
u r right abt chfjpy.. tomorrow's cross wld be 4th cross since fozzy and hence not a valid willf cross.

i dont see any other willf crosses.. you?

your eurjpy shd be up a few 10-15 pips?


Quoting poekmeister
I don't track NZD at this moment. CHFJPY i have a cross 3 days back, and only today RSI>50. According to Willf rules this is not an entry.

I was lucky with the open Cable trade. I changed TP to 1.9700 (round number!) and it got hit baggin 108 pips prior to the news tanking cable down to 1.9602 (where my S/L was).

Poek
  • #139
  • Jan 16, 2007 11:07am Jan 16, 2007 11:07am
Quoting coolshades
u r right abt chfjpy.. tomorrow's cross wld be 4th cross since fozzy and hence not a valid willf cross.

i dont see any other willf crosses.. you?

your eurjpy shd be up a few 10-15 pips?
No other crosses, so we will have a quiet evening. EURJPY was has seen 40+ pips in green, however currently -10 in red. I checked the Weekly timeframe and I don't like it (solarwind declining, low green, reducing T3-CCI). Maybe I will move stops to B/E as soon as I can.
  • #140
  • Jan 16, 2007 12:13pm Jan 16, 2007 12:13pm
Well a bit of a boring day so far.

My GBPUSD hit it's first TP yesterday and was moved to BE but was stopped out today.

CADJPY that was +102 is now only +70 but is at break even.

I took AUDUSD & NZDUSD last night but they just aren't moving anywhere. Both -18 at the moment.

Also took EURJPY but same story there. Just not moving. Currently +2

There is a interest statement tonight for NZDUSD hopefully that will stir things up a bit
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