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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,901
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:12am Jan 16, 2007 8:12am
Closed my long at 1.967 for a nice 20 pips. We should see a falldown now I think
  • #1,902
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:19am Jan 16, 2007 8:19am
I have just completed reading the thread posted since yesterday, and I have to say that in most part the information, and postings are in accordance to the type of analysis I want posted here.

But on the other hand, there is a lot of noise being thrown out, and personally I can't stand just a bunch of noise.

I started this thread so we can have an analysis daily for the Cable Currency.

But once it goes beyond this perimeter, and becomes a thread of what position every one is taking, or some off subject matter about conspiracy, and have no basis of support for your analysis - then I am going to go somewhere else to discuss the issues at hand.

This was the same purpose I quit visiting the GBP Update Thread.

Please keep this thread clean, and I personally ask that there be no swearing in this thread out of respect to all of us who do not use that verbage.

Thank you.
  • #1,903
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:23am Jan 16, 2007 8:23am
Quoting monarch
I have just completed reading the thread posted since yesterday, and I have to say that in most part the information, and postings are in accordance to the type of analysis I want posted here.

But on the other hand, there is a lot of noise being thrown out, and personally I can't stand just a bunch of noise.

I started this thread so we can have an analysis daily for the Cable Currency.

But once it goes beyond this perimeter, and becomes a thread of what position every one is taking, or some off subject matter about conspiracy, and have no basis of support for your analysis - then I am going to go somewhere else to discuss the issues at hand.

This was the same purpose I quit visiting the GBP Update Thread.

Please keep this thread clean, and I personally ask that there be no swearing in this thread out of respect to all of us who do not use that verbage.

Thank you.
You're right monarch, since reading this thread this morning my mind is still empty and craving for more educational information about what this thread is for.
  • #1,904
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:37am Jan 16, 2007 8:37am
I think it will drop...
  • #1,905
  • Edited 8:45am Jan 16, 2007 8:38am | Edited 8:45am
Hi Monarch, tis my first night looking at US market, is there anything (trend or characteristics) which i can learn on the time and strength of the market? i.e, london + frankfurt pushes market up,... ...
Thanks
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #1,906
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:49am Jan 16, 2007 8:49am
Hi Monarch,



I have a lot of ebooks about trading.and i have a lot of systems that should be tested. i appricate your help and analysis .


could you please help me to select a good strategy ?for example by book suggestion or links. i know there is a lot of systems in FF but i realy (Realy) dont know which one is good for testig. I cant test all of them.

thanks
  • #1,907
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:49am Jan 16, 2007 8:49am
i do apologize for my inane ramblings like "paint drying and grass growing", but sometimes when i visit here while watching for confirmations of moves or reversals and there is no analysis and 30 people are here, it can be like a first date,that dreaded silence!! i will do better from now on, silence is golden!!

anyway, i have come to the conclusion that this market is a trending market, sometimes really quick and other times maddeningly slow!!! there are many different way and theories on how to notice them, sometimes they conflict, sometimes they are synchronus, sometimes i am sooo confused!! you seem to be right on with your analysis of direction, but i think i speak for most of us when i say that we are a little impatient when it comes to the moves and the completion of them. when we get a channel like now, we second guess any move or position. you have obviously been doing this for years, and have learned that your system and analysis is proven, be patient and you will be rewarded. again, my apologies for flapping the gums. it can be maddening to drive down a flat road with no direction for hours!!
  • #1,908
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:52am Jan 16, 2007 8:52am
alright, let's get back to analysis, here...
Monarch,

My intention is to get back analysing our (almost ancient) perspective of a move up + a heading back towards 9200s

I've considered the following Fibs...

Low at 9486 (that iniciated the present upward move)
High at 9705 (as of today)

That gives us the following picture. Notice how the prices acted between the fib lines.

Since you are better than me in making relations between several fibs, my question is: How would this picture fit within the (almost ancient) perspective of a colapse towards the 9200? Or doesn't fit at all?

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...c/jan-16-2.jpg

Thanks.
  • #1,909
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:53am Jan 16, 2007 8:53am
it seems that the price buonced of the trendline and breaking of 23% fibo level downwards would confirm that we are moving down.
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  • #1,910
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:54am Jan 16, 2007 8:54am
BTW, it is breaking the 1st fib, already - 9622
  • #1,911
  • Jan 16, 2007 8:58am Jan 16, 2007 8:58am
Quoting monarch
I have just completed reading the thread posted since yesterday, and I have to say that in most part the information, and postings are in accordance to the type of analysis I want posted here.

But on the other hand, there is a lot of noise being thrown out, and personally I can't stand just a bunch of noise.

I started this thread so we can have an analysis daily for the Cable Currency.

But once it goes beyond this perimeter, and becomes a thread of what position every one is taking, or some off subject matter about conspiracy, and have no basis of support for your analysis - then I am going to go somewhere else to discuss the issues at hand.

This was the same purpose I quit visiting the GBP Update Thread.

Please keep this thread clean, and I personally ask that there be no swearing in this thread out of respect to all of us who do not use that verbage.

Thank you.

i guess i do belong to that noise group..im so sorry abt that..most of the time my reply on certain thread dnt related to the thread itself..i'll be more careful and try to do sumthing abt that..Once again,i really sorry..

Truthly
shah
  • #1,912
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:03am Jan 16, 2007 9:03am
today we learned that UK hits highest inflation for 10 years which suggests a further rate hike soon and then also get quite a $ - report. So why is cable falling like that?

I guess it does not really matter to pure TA, but I am still curious

Any ideas?
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #1,913
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:08am Jan 16, 2007 9:08am
Quoting Geldmeister
today we learned that UK hits highest inflation for 10 years which suggests a further rate hike soon and then also get quite a $ - report. So why is cable falling like that?

I guess it does not really matter to pure TA, but I am still curious

Any ideas?
in my opinion, its the storch 4hr that drove the G/U down direction, seems to me its just a beginning,I expect 100pips movement in situation like this.
  • #1,914
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:10am Jan 16, 2007 9:10am
Quoting Geldmeister
today we learned that UK hits highest inflation for 10 years which suggests a further rate hike soon and then also get quite a $ - report. So why is cable falling like that?

I guess it does not really matter to pure TA, but I am still curious

Any ideas?
Early today and after the news, my guess was (in order of importance)
1- Approaching and not breaking an important trendline (upper one in the channel I posted previously) - even in a low volume market as of Monday

2- Indicators 4hr / 1hr "smelling" overbought. After news, started pointing down - therefore, making sense.

3- Price increase driven by interest rate hike overdone (I read that somewhere)

4- Last but not least, a USD-bad news like today's wasn't enough even to "test" 9700, as I was inclined to start thinking about channel break after 9750s...

So far, the channel is proving itself sovereign

Note: I kept a short position all the way today believing in the trend, as I decided stop trying to scalp 20-30 pips ranging market - for loosing too much doing it.
  • #1,915
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:17am Jan 16, 2007 9:17am
down to 1.9550 before an upward move to 1.98
  • #1,916
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:17am Jan 16, 2007 9:17am
Could it becentral bank buying of $. This is just too vulgar for fundies.Anyhow, there is a very big positive reversal forming on 4 hr chart, Once this badboy turns watch out for a move up to 52 week high.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,917
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:17am Jan 16, 2007 9:17am
Quoting Geldmeister
today we learned that UK hits highest inflation for 10 years which suggests a further rate hike soon and then also get quite a $ - report. So why is cable falling like that?

I guess it does not really matter to pure TA, but I am still curious

Any ideas?
Well Sterling Index is also at the highest point in 10 years and it was there when intrest rates came out so it was priced in plus there might be profit taking since it couldnt stay above 1.97 level and another explanation could be that bankers try to squeeze long positions or that they think that this early interest rat hike would slow inflation and no further rate hikes will be necessary ,who knows, but you can find many expanation for this.
  • #1,918
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:23am Jan 16, 2007 9:23am
Yesterday the support was determined at 1.9623 to the 1.9628 mark.

The price just dipped below this point in the past 15 minutes, I am watching the 1 Hour to see if it remains below this price.

Early estimation for a retracement would have the following parimeters:

Previous Move Upwards
Low at 1.9315
High at 1.9702 (this only shows on my 5 Minute Chart - not the Hourly)

387 pip range

From the High at 1.9702

38.2% Fibo - 148 pips = Target 1.9554
50% Fibo -194 pips = Target 1.9508
61.8% Fibo - 239 pips = Target 1.9463

Of these 3 target ranges, I am keying on the 1.9554 as the main point of support.

I have a distance range between 140-195 pips that I watching for the moment.

This is only an analysis, nor a trade recommendation.
  • #1,919
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:29am Jan 16, 2007 9:29am
Looking at the lower movement key points.

I have the following price lines a reference possibly supporting the downward move.

I will watch for the break past these for a confirmation for the Short strength.

1.9606
1.9550
1.9535
1.9408
  • #1,920
  • Jan 16, 2007 9:33am Jan 16, 2007 9:33am
My target now is 1.93 area although 1.9720 is not excluded, im short from 1.97 with stop at 1.9770
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