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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,401
  • Mar 3, 2008 12:53am Mar 3, 2008 12:53am
Hi everyone,

This is my first post on this thread. Have to say. I have following the discussions on this thread and have found it very very informative. The members seem to really care about each other's trades. It's also nice to see that after so many pages the topic is still very much focussed on the original 4hr macd system.

I have to admit that I feel a tad bit intimidiated with the thoroughness of technical analysis that is being applied when a potential trade is analyzed by the members.

I have paper traded the system for the last 2 months and have just started to trade small units using the system in Feb. For the most part I have come out ahead but most of my losing trades were counter trend trades. I agree just stick to TC trades. Oh by the way .... nice trading system.



Leroy
  • #12,402
  • Mar 3, 2008 2:00am Mar 3, 2008 2:00am
as u know ,we have had a tsunami in almost all pairs in last week,eu,uj,uchf,SILVER ,..... .this kind of market movtion is like a celebretion for brokers ,yes , pairs breakes their old boundaries and people are sleep.let us guess what happened to people who were in those 3pairs i wrote above and have not stoplosses ,maybe they add to their losing positios hoping to close all of them BE ,one on my friend forexample :he is in first year of trading making 10k from a 5k account then he opened a 40k account and burend it all last week ,yes ,just in a few days,adding and adding to a loosing position he always do that and make money but this time was different ....
  • #12,403
  • Mar 3, 2008 2:50am Mar 3, 2008 2:50am
Hi Everybody!

I took this TC on EU on H1 7:00 candle:
Reason: Macd TC signal (early entry on 1H) and green candle bounce (H1) from 8 and 21.

Buy: 1.5219
SL: 1.5203
TP: 1.5246 (2 pips below my daily TL).

Stopped with -16 pips. Can somebody please help me out where did I go wrong?

Thanks.

P.S: I have been following the thread for quite some time and this is my first post.
  • #12,404
  • Edited 3:54am Mar 3, 2008 3:28am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting nhuda
Hi Everybody!

I took this TC on EU on H1 7:00 candle:
Reason: Macd TC signal (early entry on 1H) and green candle bounce (H1) from 8 and 21.

Buy: 1.5219
SL: 1.5203
TP: 1.5246 (2 pips below my daily TL).

Stopped with -16 pips. Can somebody please help me out where did I go wrong?

Thanks.

P.S: I have been following the thread for quite some time and this is my first post.
1.It's usual that gap space be filled fast after Sunday open.
2.Not good signal at all (4H macd had divergence since Friday corrective move could be expected).
3.Small stop loss
  • #12,405
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:03am Mar 3, 2008 4:03am
hi
i have always this problem.the if u wanna watch to a TL in different TFs ,there are different breaking points in them(10 ,15 even 20 pips)
please some one help me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #12,406
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:17am Mar 3, 2008 4:17am
Quoting bshadroo
hi
i have always this problem.the if u wanna watch to a TL in different TFs ,there are different breaking points in them(10 ,15 even 20 pips)
please some one help me
I "mix" the candles to get a better market view in such points, by otherside trendlines are just a reference about possible movements, market not always respect the trendlines.
IMHO it is better trade based in price movement (market rhythm);indicators and graphics are just aditional tools.
  • #12,407
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:19am Mar 3, 2008 4:19am
Quoting aihua5
I am very interested in the price action.
I did a search in the forum and found some pin bars material.
After read them I found my understanding of pin bars was totally incorrect.

So I attached them for anyone interested.
Cheers
Aihua
Thank you very much Aihua. It was a great help for me.
Bye!
  • #12,408
  • Edited 8:52am Mar 3, 2008 5:15am | Edited 8:52am
buy gbpusd @ 1.9852, SL 1.9807, BE 20, TP 1.9897
Reason: Bounce off 21ema and trendline, possible macd zero bounce, 1H morning star.

Edit1: set BE

Edit2: hit TP. +45 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.jpg Size: 187 KB
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,409
  • Mar 3, 2008 6:03am Mar 3, 2008 6:03am
Quoting Leroy
Hi everyone,

This is my first post on this thread. Have to say. I have following the discussions on this thread and have found it very very informative. The members seem to really care about each other's trades. It's also nice to see that after so many pages the topic is still very much focussed on the original 4hr macd system.

I have to admit that I feel a tad bit intimidiated with the thoroughness of technical analysis that is being applied when a potential trade is analyzed by the members.

I have paper traded the system for the last 2 months and have just started to trade small units using the system in Feb. For the most part I have come out ahead but most of my losing trades were counter trend trades. I agree just stick to TC trades. Oh by the way .... nice trading system.



Leroy

Leroy: Welcome to the thread! It is a lot of information but the good thing about it all is that the method is exactly the same as day 1. So, post #1 is still everything you need to know. The analysis per trade with Fib#'s, trendlines, etc. will happen over time. There is a website for Phillip's method. Check out http://www.fxtradeblog.com Find the tools link and download/printout the years worth of EU chart and make notes all over them, it really helps.

The cable and euro are both stuck in 1hr ranges. I'm still in with the EU position and unless we get a large move to the upside I will exit this week. I'm looking for the euro to start ranging a few days before the fed meets anyway. I will look for a breakout, only to the upside, for a re-entry....we'll see.
  • #12,410
  • Mar 3, 2008 6:30am Mar 3, 2008 6:30am
Hi to all of you here on this lovely thread.I found that thread very helpful and at the end after long searching I think I found my system.Thank you to Phillip and all of you guys that make that tread alive and so precious and actual.After reading lessons from 1-13 and all of the material from the blog I start as it said at the number 1 post to start from the beginning.Ok,now I read all the thread and I am still far way/till page 19/but while I read and looking the market I have an question.Please excuse me if my question is too stupid or simple but I can not find answer in my head.Well,if you look USD/CHF or USD/JPY you will see both strong downtrend.MACD was in good sign for bye 3 hours ago and another filter I understood is that 89 and 200 are far from the price.So my question is why 8EMA make so strong resistance and do not let the price to pass till 21EMA from so long time?
Thank you in advance
  • #12,411
  • Mar 3, 2008 6:48am Mar 3, 2008 6:48am
[quote=Bag Lady;1856550]Hi Palmer, Can't believe you do all this, update the website, and work, and dodge tornadoes!!
You must be Superman! :surprised

+500 pips in the bag in one week, Palmer you truly are a superhero!

Guess the baby'll be getting a shiny 'new' '83 engine now? You could maybe even get a hottie to help clean your room!

Aihua - great to see you getting success too, and adding constructively to the thread. I've been away for a week, it was totally unplanned, what a week to go! But, I got to see my family in England and that's worth more than a few pips to me!

Quite like the look of the tail down on the EU 4hr, formed by a nice RB on the 1hr. I don't like the bearish divergence on the MACD though, and there's no TC as yet. I shall leave it to see what it wants to do. Maybe it's waiting for the speech at 13:00 and the 3 news items at 15:00 (gmt). SL below the 21 as it stands would be too much for me at the moment. I shall wait and see, maybe get in on the 1hr if there is a definite move.

Rebecca,x.
Attached Image
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #12,412
  • Mar 3, 2008 6:51am Mar 3, 2008 6:51am
Quoting nhuda
Hi Everybody!

I took this TC on EU on H1 7:00 candle:
Reason: Macd TC signal (early entry on 1H) and green candle bounce (H1) from 8 and 21.

Buy: 1.5219
SL: 1.5203
TP: 1.5246 (2 pips below my daily TL).

Stopped with -16 pips. Can somebody please help me out where did I go wrong?

Thanks.

P.S: I have been following the thread for quite some time and this is my first post.

You really need to be careful with the 1H MACD signals when the 1H is ranging like this. I suggest that whenever the 1H MACD get close to the zero line TCs signals are unreliable because chances are it is a long corrective cycle.
If you do take trades within these cycles you need to adjust your position size and put your stop below the low range of 1.5143 but you see the RR would filter your entry. I put my stop below the 62% retracement of 1.5132 of the last upswing or the 4H 21EMA - at the point my bias would shift to looking for shorts. If you must have the 1H MACD as trigger and still uncomfortable with price action only - apply Phillip's range trading MP3 to these 1H corrective cycles - that way you will enter on the right side - so if the 4H trend is up look for MACD round bottoms. But you must see & understand these trending/corrective price movements first.

I also took a EUR long a couple hours ago but at the right side of this corrective ranging cycle and was just alerted to take first PT and rest already sitting at BE giving price a chance to break to the upside.

Try to understand my post a few up front yours it explains the why better.
  • #12,413
  • Mar 3, 2008 7:21am Mar 3, 2008 7:21am
BagLady: I get my super powers from Phillip!

Fena74: I guess one of the answers to the question about the 8 being such strong resistance or support is because Phillip took about two years to put all of this together and he recognized the fact that the 8 and 21 work in sync for a reason. When price is running on the 8 like it is, the trend is really strong and the 4hr may not give up to many opportunities to enter the trend. This is where the 1hr charts can help to spot entries within the 4hr trend. But, you should only consider trading the 1hr entries when you have the concept of the method down. Over time, the 1hr picture becomes clear but this is a more aggressive entry. Be sure you have the concepts of the 4hr charts down before trading the 1hr. The 1hr is more detailed with the price action though. Trendlines, s/r areas, channels, all must be taken into account on the 1hr also.
  • #12,414
  • Mar 3, 2008 7:27am Mar 3, 2008 7:27am
Thank you Palmer for the answer.I will forget for now the 1 Hour and I will give all my attention for 4 Hour time.I understood a lot from this answer.Thank you again and happy trading.
  • #12,415
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:03am Mar 3, 2008 8:03am
Hi,

Can I ask a really basic question that I'm quite ashamed not to know the answer to?

When drawing fib retracements using the tool on MT4, if you are looking at a bull move, should the 0% be at the bottom of the move and the 100% be at the top? Is it then the opposite for a bear move? I know it should be obvious, but ...

I apologise for my brainlessness, maths never was my strong point!
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #12,416
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:04am Mar 3, 2008 8:04am
[quote=Bag Lady;1880934]
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi Palmer, Can't believe you do all this, update the website, and work, and dodge tornadoes!!
You must be Superman! :surprised

+500 pips in the bag in one week, Palmer you truly are a superhero!

Guess the baby'll be getting a shiny 'new' '83 engine now? You could maybe even get a hottie to help clean your room!

Aihua - great to see you getting success too, and adding constructively to the thread. I've been away for a week, it was totally unplanned, what a week to go! But, I got to see my family in England and that's worth more than a few pips to me!

Quite like the look of the tail down on the EU 4hr, formed by a nice RB on the 1hr. I don't like the bearish divergence on the MACD though, and there's no TC as yet. I shall leave it to see what it wants to do. Maybe it's waiting for the speech at 13:00 and the 3 news items at 15:00 (gmt). SL below the 21 as it stands would be too much for me at the moment. I shall wait and see, maybe get in on the 1hr if there is a definite move.

Rebecca,x.
I took the E/U long early on, I based it on the tail on the 4H and the 1H morning star and MACD combination. This all took place close to the bottom of the range which made me more confident in the trade. Anyway price has moved very slowly up and is now finding resistance at 5200 and as yet has not closed above. The last candle formed a doji (on the 1H) so I took 75% profit and have held the rest at BE.

As im writing this price moving up a bit better...

Still have 25% of position long anyway.
  • #12,417
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:26am Mar 3, 2008 8:26am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi,

Can I ask a really basic question that I'm quite ashamed not to know the answer to?

When drawing fib retracements using the tool on MT4, if you are looking at a bull move, should the 0% be at the bottom of the move and the 100% be at the top? Is it then the opposite for a bear move? I know it should be obvious, but ...

I apologise for my brainlessness, maths never was my strong point!

It really doesn't matter but I draw my top down. The 38% and 62% are the same depending top down or bottom up.

Wow - EUR just jump!
  • #12,418
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:28am Mar 3, 2008 8:28am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi,

Can I ask a really basic question that I'm quite ashamed not to know the answer to?

When drawing fib retracements using the tool on MT4, if you are looking at a bull move, should the 0% be at the bottom of the move and the 100% be at the top? Is it then the opposite for a bear move? I know it should be obvious, but ...

I apologise for my brainlessness, maths never was my strong point!
Don't mind, all is a learning process, dispite I'm not fib fan here can you find the answer with examples
http://www.babypips.com/school/fibon...tracement.html
  • #12,419
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:30am Mar 3, 2008 8:30am
Rebecca, when the move is up and u want to measure what the pull back could be run your fibo from bottom up with 0 at the top. Then the retrace counts from the 23% 38% etc. Hope that helps Peter
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi,

Can I ask a really basic question that I'm quite ashamed not to know the answer to?

When drawing fib retracements using the tool on MT4, if you are looking at a bull move, should the 0% be at the bottom of the move and the 100% be at the top? Is it then the opposite for a bear move? I know it should be obvious, but ...

I apologise for my brainlessness, maths never was my strong point!
  • #12,420
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:39am Mar 3, 2008 8:39am
Thanks Everyone!

I knew the answer would be simple!! I couldn't work out if we measured the move or the retracement of the move - seems it doesn't matter either way!

Good pips on the EU Brettboz,

Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
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