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Trading the Edge of Chaos -GBP/USD

  • #241
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:32am Feb 29, 2008 2:32am
Update:

We are going to have another erratic day.
It is not clear where the market wants to head to as at now.
Below 9890, it maybe heading back to lower edge of chaos.
  • #242
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:01am Feb 29, 2008 3:01am
update:

I have enter sell trade, in profits but will need a complete
break below 9850 to make it to target at lower edge of 9791
  • #243
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:37am Feb 29, 2008 4:37am
Put stop loss into profit area with trailing stop
GBP/USD = 60pips so far targeting lower edge

Other good trades includes
Natural gas = 41pips
crude oil = 33pips
  • #244
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:37am Feb 29, 2008 5:37am
GBP/usd target reached and trade liquidated.
all trades liquidate at the moment for a total of 138pips

A bit late on buy leg up but I have taken the risk buying back
GBP/USD, I can sacrifies some few pips
  • #245
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:48pm Feb 29, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting fxbroker
GBP/usd target reached and trade liquidated.
all trades liquidate at the moment for a total of 138pips

A bit late on buy leg up but I have taken the risk buying back
GBP/USD, I can sacrifies some few pips
any idea where the GU will go this coming Monday?

I'm in long position at the moment without any SL or TP...
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  • #246
  • Edited 4:20am Mar 1, 2008 3:56am | Edited 4:20am
Quoting ssufian
any idea where the GU will go this coming Monday?

I'm in long position at the moment without any SL or TP...
Thanks for the question. Let me quickly answer this by saying that chaos does not predict or forecast market as no one can forecast the market. But it does is give you accurate analysis of possible outcome of a new day, and it does it so well with alternative plan, even when the main analysis does not work out as expected.

To answer your question:
Please see Friday's chaos analysis. I said that the day will be bullish but with a plan B. (The graph is attached below). London seems to favour plan B first before Plan but what is important is that my analysis worked out so well with market turning exactly at the edge of chaos.

Currently there is big fear and uncertainties among market participants we are try to copy with chaos method. If they do not make a move, there is nothing chaos can do for us. If they are in panic chaos will only show us
panic as well. If they are in good buying and selling mood or behaviours, that is what we see from our chart.

Remember Friday's trading session has not ended completely but will continue sometime Sunday evening or night, or morning of Monday(for Asia) or depending which part of the world you live.

Thus, will could expect the current bulllis leg from lower edge to reach upper edge of chaos. If it failed to reach there by end of normal US trading session on Sunday (23:00 EST), and reverse, we could expect market to be bearish on Monday. (Please do not mark my word for Monday being bearish)

But remember my earlier statement you cannot predict or forecast into the future, (those claiming they can are just guessing, and decieving themselve and their followers, and that is why if market turned against them, they just hold on to losing positions because of pride that their forecast was supposed to be right). For now we will have to wait for Monday to analyse the market and come out with possible chaos patterns for Monday.

I hope this helps.
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  • #247
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:27am Mar 1, 2008 4:27am
Quoting fxbroker
GBP/usd target reached and trade liquidated.
all trades liquidate at the moment for a total of 138pips

A bit late on buy leg up but I have taken the risk buying back
GBP/USD, I can sacrifies some few pips
I liquidated this leg on Friday because my stoploss was too close and did not renter as I move focus to monitoring Crude oil and Natural gas.

GBP/USD will need a break above, first 9912, and then 9930 before it can
make it to upper edge of chaos.
  • #248
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:56pm Mar 2, 2008 2:56pm
Hi, Fxbroker,

i have just founded your thread. Your theory looks really interesting.

I trade mostly with technical tools, but your ideology fits to mine.

Looking forward to read your posts and discussed with you about that.
  • #249
  • Mar 3, 2008 1:59am Mar 3, 2008 1:59am
Quoting sDRs
Hi, Fxbroker,

i have just founded your thread. Your theory looks really interesting.

I trade mostly with technical tools, but your ideology fits to mine.

Looking forward to read your posts and discussed with you about that.
You are welcome.

I will be releasing more stuff regarding how to use chaos to find
rhythms in financial markets in due course.
Market rhythm - a concept is supposed to be
the cornerstone of Elliot Wave theory but unable to figure it out.

This error or misconception of market rhythms by Elliot Waves followers accounts for why waves theories cannot pin point exactly where market will reverse.
  • #250
  • Mar 3, 2008 2:10am Mar 3, 2008 2:10am
Today's Chaos = Bearish

Sorry no graph today as I am pre-occupied with
other things

Upper edge = 1.9902
Lower edge = 1.9713

My preference would have been to trade (sell) from
upper edge (9902) to lower edge (9713)


Options depending London open
1. Buy from 9830 to 9902 (upper edge of chaos)
this may fail to break above 9866, then abort or sell below
that level.

Second option
2. Sell below 9830 to lower edge of chaos.

Monday is usually unreliable with data feeds
  • #251
  • Mar 3, 2008 2:11am Mar 3, 2008 2:11am
Quoting fxbroker
Put stop loss into profit area with trailing stop
GBP/USD = 60pips so far targeting lower edge

Other good trades includes
Natural gas = 41pips
crude oil = 33pips
where do u trade oil and ng? GDItrading?
  • #252
  • Mar 3, 2008 2:22am Mar 3, 2008 2:22am
Quoting Vlad
where do u trade oil and ng? GDItrading?
Oil futures is available from Northfinance and Windsor brokers, Spot crude is available from ODL securities, and they have MT4, dunno about GDItrading I will also check them out
  • #253
  • Mar 3, 2008 2:46am Mar 3, 2008 2:46am
Psychic level is 1.98, but we need to remember, that important news for UK i coming ( personaly i dont believe, that it will be as much as forecasted ) and US ISM Manufacturing Index, which is definately important and maybe, he will point another days direction for cable, but anyway, it's bearish, especially with rate cut on Thursday.
  • #254
  • Mar 3, 2008 3:46am Mar 3, 2008 3:46am
Quoting sDRs
Psychic level is 1.98, but we need to remember, that important news for UK i coming ( personaly i dont believe, that it will be as much as forecasted ) and US ISM Manufacturing Index, which is definately important and maybe, he will point another days direction for cable, but anyway, it's bearish, especially with rate cut on Thursday.
Don't you think thursday is too far to be speculating what condition might be at that time?

My Chaos method is a daily analytical method, as no one knows what will happen tomorrow or a day beyond.

A break out of 9866 might get us to upper edge and then I will turn to
sell from there. if it failed to break it, then I will sell back.

Same plan as in the morning holds. Except we have to watch out for 9889, instead of 9902:
  • #255
  • Mar 3, 2008 3:50am Mar 3, 2008 3:50am
Quoting fxbroker
Don't you think thursday is too far to be speculating what condition might be at that time?

My Chaos method is a daily analytical method, as no one knows what will happen tomorrow or a day beyond.

A break out of 9866 might get us to upper edge and then I will turn to
sell from there. if it failed to break it, then I will sell back.

Same plan as in the morning holds. Except we have to watch out for 9889, instead of 9902:
Ok, agree with you.

Today i have closed one short 1.9834 @ 1.9818
After that there was one long from 1.9842 @ 1.9865.

Seems, that its hard to brake resistance, also EU is holding this pair.

Possible situation for shorting
  • #256
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:12am Mar 3, 2008 4:12am
Quoting sDRs

Seems, that its hard to brake resistance, also EU is holding this pair.

Possible situation for shorting
Using the rhythm of one currency pair to work out what another currency pair will do in a relatively short time is something I don't always trust.......

Since the start of the year, GU is at the start of a new cycle after completing a revolution by Dec. 2007. After February, we now have a support at 9320 area. The tempo is up and not down but it will need a break of 2.0089 or there about.

If anyone tells you that they can provide a long term forecast now, be very weary of them. instead trade what the daily tempo or rhythm gives you.

But these are hard times to trade currencies.
  • #257
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:26am Mar 3, 2008 4:26am
Quoting fxbroker

If anyone tells you that they can provide a long term forecast now, be very weary of them. instead trade what the daily tempo or rhythm gives you.
Of course they cant. But i prefer trade with trend/economic, so long positions on cable could kill this week.
  • #258
  • Mar 3, 2008 8:56am Mar 3, 2008 8:56am
Quoting fxbroker
Today's Chaos = Bearish

Sorry no graph today as I am pre-occupied with
other things

Upper edge = 1.9902
Lower edge = 1.9713

My preference would have been to trade (sell) from
upper edge (9902) to lower edge (9713)


Options depending London open
1. Buy from 9830 to 9902 (upper edge of chaos)
this may fail to break above 9866, then abort or sell below
that level.

Second option
2. Sell below 9830 to lower edge of chaos.

Monday is usually unreliable with data feeds
Close out option 1: buy and it hit target of upper edge.
Made made 46pips, I am personally very careful of GBP

Other instrument traded with chaos with profits
Oil futures = 131
Gas futures = 123 + 18 pips
Total for today = 313 pips.
-------------------------------

Looking forward to sell back GBP, oil and gas at the right time
  • #259
  • Mar 3, 2008 9:46am Mar 3, 2008 9:46am
For purpose of up date, though cable met my requirement
hit up edge and sell back from there, I am not on sell at the moment.

It went too fast for me. Actually I do not trust it.

I may look at buying from 9832, if it failed to break there
meanwhile I am on oil futures (sell) = 20pips so far.

Trying to collect opportunity missed in GBP/usd from oil.
  • #260
  • Mar 4, 2008 1:46am Mar 4, 2008 1:46am
Outlook = bullish
This depends on the initial condition.

My preferred entry point will be at 9805 region - around
the lower edge of chaos and buy to upper edge of chaos.

Alternative options:

1. Sell below lower edge if failed to move up from here
Target is unknown probably to 9734.

2. Buy from 9844 to upper edge of chaos, if London failed to move to lower edge of chaos.

I will also be trading Crude oil and Natural Gas futures later.
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