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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,381
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:18am Feb 29, 2008 8:18am
Hello to all, Just checking in. I'm on the road for the last week. Traveling to the state of Kansas. Going to take a temporary good paying job there In an oil refinerey to make some money to fund an account. Have stopped along the way to take a look at the charts where I could find a WIFI connection for my laptop.....Looks like some pips were made this week.......crazy move! Who said Euro would NEVER go to 1.50????? Hope everyone came out ahead this week.....will try to keep up with the pages.........If i have time I will get out my crayons and make a pretty colorful chart to keep me up on whats been happening........pipip........JimDandy

p.s.
Wow Palmer! 500 pips? Way to go!!!
  • #12,382
  • Feb 29, 2008 1:48pm Feb 29, 2008 1:48pm
Quoting maxster
I was also hoping to catch a TC on the EUR today - but the corrective cycle is not complete yet.

Yesterdays stop was to big for me and a pullback never came for me to get in.

But look at the turn yesterday it was very pretty and tight with perfect support candles on either side of the tail - todays was ugly. I waited for a pullback but price failed to hold the 62% fib level. I would of entered if price held the swing short or 62% fib and a 1H closed above the 38% or swing long fib of that minor swing.

Maxster,
Thanks for your posts - I'm finding them quite helpful.
Your last post brings up a question I've been pondering!
So you would have been happy entering the 28th Feb TC signal on the 4H based purely on the smooth rounding on the 1H as per your chart, despite the price not having returned for a clean bounce of the 1H fibs? Obviously, if you had waited for price on the 1H to retrace to your fib levels for a bounce to confirm the 1H uptrend, you would have missed the move.
Thanks - Hope the question makes sense.
  • #12,383
  • Feb 29, 2008 2:13pm Feb 29, 2008 2:13pm
Does anyone know of a way to toggle multiple charts in MT4 from 4HR to 1D (all charts)... and of course toggle them on back.

Easy to do it one by one, but it's a lot of mouse clicks...
  • #12,384
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:19pm Feb 29, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting EricthePip
Does anyone know of a way to toggle multiple charts in MT4 from 4HR to 1D (all charts)... and of course toggle them on back.

Easy to do it one by one, but it's a lot of mouse clicks...

Set all you charts to 4hr .......save profile as 4hr........set all you charts to 1hr ......save profile as 1hr......or whatever you want to call it.......to change profiles you can push ctrl+F5 or shift+F5 to go back to previous profile.....once you get to the desired set of charts.......hold down the ctrl key and push the tab key to toggle thru the charts.......have fun...dont wear out your buttons!........pipip..........JimDandy
  • #12,385
  • Feb 29, 2008 3:41pm Feb 29, 2008 3:41pm
Thanks Jim.

Quoting JimDandy
Set all you charts to 4hr .......save profile as 4hr........set all you charts to 1hr ......save profile as 1hr......or whatever you want to call it.......to change profiles you can push ctrl+F5 or shift+F5 to go back to previous profile.....once you get to the desired set of charts.......hold down the ctrl key and push the tab key to toggle thru the charts.......have fun...dont wear out your buttons!........pipip..........JimDandy
  • #12,386
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:07pm Feb 29, 2008 4:07pm
Dear all,

I just wanted to share my first week of live trading experience (using Phillip's system) with all of you. I had 3 trades this week, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE. Overall I made 18 pips. My goal was not to make major mistakes and go broke. I am very happy with my first week's result. .Emotions are very different in live trading than demo trading. You can demo trades long time and gain your confidence. Then you would think you can hadnle the live trades with same emotion and heart. But that's not the case. When comes to live trades things are totally different.
Have a nice weekend.
-Rahim
Never enter a Trade without a STOP LOSS
  • #12,387
  • Edited 7:02pm Feb 29, 2008 6:05pm | Edited 7:02pm
Quoting BenStevo
Maxster,
Thanks for your posts - I'm finding them quite helpful.
Your last post brings up a question I've been pondering!
So you would have been happy entering the 28th Feb TC signal on the 4H based purely on the smooth rounding on the 1H as per your chart, despite the price not having returned for a clean bounce of the 1H fibs? Obviously, if you had waited for price on the 1H to retrace to your fib levels for a bounce to confirm the 1H uptrend, you would have missed the move.
Thanks - Hope the question makes sense.
I did miss the move because I was being too cautious by waiting for the pullback - if I wasn't so careful or fearful I would of taken the 1H rounding 1 hour earlier before the 4H MACD signal if I was watching live - however I was alerted by the 4H MACD signal and elected to wait for pullback due to my emotional excessively cautious state & stop was too big. I indicated in my daily journal that I didn't want a loss because of near end of month and price has gone up so much so some emotions were toying with my head that caused me to be excessively cautious. I am still developing my discipline.

I also missed yesterday's GBP move because I was also being careful due to all the tails and the fact that the corrective pullback price movement was too much downward trend-like instead of sideways - so me waiting for a pullback (which didn't happen so no entry) was completely objective for my trading plan.

But I do enter on 1H and 4H MACD TC signals if everything looks perfect, pretty, tight with nice rounding - these MACD entries are short and simple. It is hard to describe these simple & clean pullbacks but they are what Phillip and all the veterans look for - they are the goldmine as it usually only occur 2 or 3 times in a month for a pair. I use the fib pullback to guide me in the complex extended pullbacks. With lots of chart time you will learn to see the difference between the simple pullbacks and the extended ones.

After losing so much money the last couple of years - I no longer care or get emotional if I miss a move because there is always another one.
  • #12,388
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:49pm Feb 29, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting rc2008
Dear all,

I just wanted to share my first week of live trading experience (using Phillip's system) with all of you. I had 3 trades this week, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE. Overall I made 18 pips. My goal was not to make major mistakes and go broke. I am very happy with my first week's result. .Emotions are very different in live trading than demo trading. You can demo trades long time and gain your confidence. Then you would think you can hadnle the live trades with same emotion and heart. But that's not the case. When comes to live trades things are totally different.
Have a nice weekend.
-Rahim
Rahim
I think that if in every trade the risk < 2-5% you will feel better. The emotion in live trading could be handled well.
I like one book Trading in the Zone which can tell us how to control the emotion and know the market microcosmic randomicity and build the correct traing belief.
Have a nice weekend.
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,389
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:05am Mar 1, 2008 4:05am
eurchf breaked the monthly TL and closed below.just want to say becarefull for a buy and im really waiting for sell signals
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  • #12,390
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:25am Mar 1, 2008 4:25am
I am very interested in the price action.
I did a search in the forum and found some pin bars material.
After read them I found my understanding of pin bars was totally incorrect.

So I attached them for anyone interested.
Cheers
Aihua
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Pin bars-introduction.pdf   175 KB | 1,396 downloads
File Type: pdf Pin bars-advanced.pdf   113 KB | 1,278 downloads
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,391
  • Mar 2, 2008 3:22pm Mar 2, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting merrittb
Hello all, I've haven't been posting lately due to finals in college, but have most definately kept up with the thread.

I just wanted to let both the veterans and especially the new people know of another success story for this great system.

As my FIRST MONTH of using the system comes to an end, I'm up +402 pips with a 63% win percentage, and a 21:1 win:loss ratio. 8 trades. Never risking more than 3% on a single trade.

Aside from the successful results I wanted to let the new guys know that I was very conservative as I only made 8 trades for the month, BUT they were all high probability trades with the trends. I think this had a lot to do with the success seeing as how I used to overtrade badly.


-Merritt
I was wondering if any experienced traders on here have ever done things as dumb and as bad as I have.... let me explain:
I posted this quote that showed my december trading results. Well, In Jan. and Feb. I made well over 300 trades, and lost about 25% of my account each month. How is it possible that I was so controlled and successful, only to completely lose all dicipline for the next two months. Can anyone relate to this or offer any wisdom/experience? Am I not dicipline enough to be a trader? I want it badly though.

Best,
Merritt
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #12,392
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:09pm Mar 2, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting merrittb
... In Jan. and Feb. I made well over 300 trades, and lost about 25% of my account each month. ...

Best,
Merritt
Perhaps you are overtrading, taking any signal, any direction. 300 trades in 40 working days represents 7.5 trades a day. for me is too much.
First at all stop to trade right now. Review your strategies and systems. Take only 2 or 3 trades a week... but for 100 or 200 pips each...

A.
  • #12,393
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:20pm Mar 2, 2008 7:20pm
EUR is currently resuming its previous weekly uptrend breaking out of a daily correction that started last Nov. It is moving so strong because all timeframes are in sync weekly, daily, 4H or even 1H - ever since the break the 1H has not broken the 62% retrace of a previous swing.

If the weekly move is to continue the daily will need to get into Phillip's rhythm by pulling back into the 8 to 21 EMA area then continue completing the first daily leg of the weekly uptrend. We don't know when it will pullback so we can only follow it at the now moment.

The first clear hint that the pullback may be in the works for the daily is when price breaks the 62% of the previous swing on the 1H - hope some are seeing how important the previous statement really is.

Anyhow Eur is still in a very typical corrective 1H cycle - I will be watching the 1.5170 level very close and may enter a long trade if candle forms a doji there - I call this my 3rd bounce entry - where price already found support 2 times and anticipating another bounce here will complete the basing support pattern - entry here is more aggressive but better RR. Notice the shoulder. head already formed. Many times at this stage of the corrective cycle price will shoot right thur the 62% level starting the daily pullback.

I hope some are starting to see why the 4H MACD gives false signals - if you look at the 1H corrective swings and if your 4H timezone ends at the peak of those 1H swings then you usually will get a bad signal - but most veterans filter these with R:R.

Lets wait and see .......
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  • #12,394
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:27pm Mar 2, 2008 7:27pm
Quoting merrittb
I was wondering if any experienced traders on here have ever done things as dumb and as bad as I have.... let me explain:
I posted this quote that showed my december trading results. Well, In Jan. and Feb. I made well over 300 trades, and lost about 25% of my account each month. How is it possible that I was so controlled and successful, only to completely lose all dicipline for the next two months. Can anyone relate to this or offer any wisdom/experience? Am I not dicipline enough to be a trader? I want it badly though.

Best,
Merritt
Yes. And I think it's because you (we) get that feeling of "we're doing so well that we can't lose" or "maybe I can just make a few more pips and make it and even 50 for the day"...You're trading on impulse, it's like the candy in the checkout line...it's there and you MUST have it. 300 trades over two months is about 8 trades a day (given 40 days of trading). My guess is that you were trying to find trades on the 1hr and possibly looking at even the lower timeframes to get in or you have way too many currencies on your screen. Think about it 8 trades a day with Phillip's 4 hour method. I think nailing down the discipline is harder than getting a method down. The lure of pips is always there, we see the market running and we jump in only to see the price turn around. Think about those months where you were disciplined and how it was almost relaxing to only make a few trades, at the most, for the week.

"I want it badly though." We all want to be able to end up with a profit. You're in a tough spot because your in college and I can bet money that your were thinking about a trade and it got in the way of school somehow. That's a huge distraction. But, because of the fact that you were doing well for that month tells me that you do have it in you to have the discipline. I think of trading in terms of running a business, not a hobby. Hobbies cost money and you are in business to make money. I'm not sure what your background is with trading but if this is your 'first year' then...it's all part of it. We've all been through the school of hard knocks with trading and aside from all the books, emails, forums, postings....websites....you probably see about 5% of the subject matter about discipline and patience and 95% about "Look how much you can make!" So, discipline and patience comes from within. If you, and anyone else for that matter, is new at this, that first year or two should be looked at as a learning experience. It takes a lot to forget about the emotions of trading (good and bad) and to focus on the business model of trading.

I would consider just reassessing your trading plan. Maybe take a week off and just shut down. Close out 8 of the 10 charts ( or get rid of the 5 and 15min timframes ), go back over the printed charts, and concentrate on the 4hr and 1hr. What I find is that when I have to be gone for a week or so because of work and can't trade, it's healthy. Sometimes we get so tuned in to the markets we can lose site of everything else. Again, think about that good month you had and...why would you want change anything.
  • #12,395
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:32pm Mar 2, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting maxster

I hope some are starting to see why the 4H MACD gives false signals - if you look at the 1H corrective swings and if your 4H timezone ends at the peak of those 1H swings then you usually will get a bad signal - but most veterans filter these with R:R.

Lets wait and see .......
maxster: This is a a very important point. Phillip has said this several times, not to trade solely on the MACD. It's important to know the price action and how things react to the moving averages.

Great analysis with the longer timeframes when the 4hr is so strong.
  • #12,396
  • Mar 2, 2008 8:04pm Mar 2, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting Palmer
I think nailing down the discipline is harder than getting a method down.
Disicipline is the most important after you have a trading plan - this can take years to master.

I did a lot of impulsive trades before - it is the #1 account killer. I recalled many times I would abandon my trading plan and just take trade after trade - this was with the 5MIN timeframe. I have learn to acknowledge these emotional feelings and I usually ask myself how am I feeling before a trade? These emotional energies have the ability to pull the trigger without your permission. If my head is not right and clear - I shut off the computer and go do something (like the dishes/gym etc) this clears my head - my impulsive trades are not gone as I occassionally still have the problem on the 4H/1H but they no longer affect my account very much because higher timeframe gives me time to think. And also soon as I enter a trade that is not in my plan I now have the ability to start to look to get out at BE or small loss - and not hope it goes my way.
  • #12,397
  • Mar 2, 2008 8:22pm Mar 2, 2008 8:22pm
I agree with the others post, additionally I suspect your taking trades based on MACD signal only over a multitude of pairs, I also suspect you may not have a written biz plan. Write down a plan based a a few pairs study/trade the motion/emotion/rhythm of those. Spend an hour looking at charts and Phillips trade logs, recall in his mp3's, the market should be begging you to trade. If you go searching the bad ones will always raise their hands..... Ask those three questions. Is there motion, where are the MA's??, where is the resistance/support, what do I expect to happen, is there emotion (candlesticks, breakout, etc), is there rhythm (market is coming back to the ______, going to the ______, ____ MA is support, heading to the ______)

Sounds like this is what you did do in month 1....

I'm no vet to trading, but I hope this will help.
Eric


Quoting merrittb
I was wondering if any experienced traders on here have ever done things as dumb and as bad as I have.... let me explain:
I posted this quote that showed my december trading results. Well, In Jan. and Feb. I made well over 300 trades, and lost about 25% of my account each month. How is it possible that I was so controlled and successful, only to completely lose all dicipline for the next two months. Can anyone relate to this or offer any wisdom/experience? Am I not dicipline enough to be a trader? I want it badly though.

Best,
Merritt
  • #12,398
  • Mar 2, 2008 9:41pm Mar 2, 2008 9:41pm
Quoting merrittb
I was wondering if any experienced traders on here have ever done things as dumb and as bad as I have.... let me explain:
I posted this quote that showed my december trading results. Well, In Jan. and Feb. I made well over 300 trades, and lost about 25% of my account each month. How is it possible that I was so controlled and successful, only to completely lose all dicipline for the next two months. Can anyone relate to this or offer any wisdom/experience? Am I not dicipline enough to be a trader? I want it badly though.

Best,
Merritt
You've got great replies already, read them several times. I just want to add, included in a trading plan I think traders should also evaluate themselves as to what kind of trader they need to be in order to be potentially profitable. In this business your biggest competitor is yourself (patience and discipline), the trader you currently are or want to be may not be the the trader you need to be. The mentality we all have at first is 'the more we trade, the more money making potential we have' the problem with that is we are overexposing ourselves to risk. IMO the most successful business people take some risk but they do not take every risk. They know themselves and know which risks are worth taking for them. Find out what works for you, go over the trades for those months and find out who you need to be to make money.

I hope this makes sense and helps
  • #12,399
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:08pm Mar 2, 2008 11:08pm
A million huge thanks to everyone for sharing their words of wisdom. A appreciate it more than you know. I've made out a trade sheet that I MUST fill out before entering a trade. If the trade is not a high probability one, I won't be able to fill out the trade sheet and thus not take the trade. I also now will limit my trades/month because by limiting the trades I allow myself to make, it forces me into a mindset of waiting for the best ones.

I look forward to the day I am a successful trader and can help someone through things that i've already gone through.

Best,
Merritt
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #12,400
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:34pm Mar 2, 2008 11:34pm
merrittb, Im in the same boat as you, i tend to take trades where the SL is wayy greater then the TP, so even if I get more right trades, I am still in the negative. I started trading on lower time frames, making all the wrong desicions, time to regroup.
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