Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 80 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,581
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:22pm Mar 2, 2008 1:22pm
Quoting fti
@ lusan
Ok, 1 more time, last time its given


regards
I missed it. Thanks.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,582
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:36pm Mar 2, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting fti
Hi Hapasasa,
Don't play god.
Give it a miss, if you cannot babysit.
Never play god. The risk must be managed.

We just got out of a USD roller coaster ride, the trend is set.
The exposures must be danced.
Retrace it surely must.
Question is how deep?
what about the CBs?
Be professional. If you were managing my book , and you did that, I would give you the walking cert , even if you made $$.


regards
Hi fti,

I have just come back. I wasn´t thinking about playing god as I am well aware of my limitations.
I shall follow your advice - what you said about the walking cert gave me a good jolt!
Thanks for your post - there will be many more opportunities,
regards,
HS
  • #1,583
  • Edited 1:57pm Mar 2, 2008 1:43pm | Edited 1:57pm
Quoting HapaSasa
Hi fti,

I have just come back. I wasn´t thinking about playing god as I am well aware of my limitations.
I shall follow your advice - what you said about the walking cert gave me a good jolt!
Thanks for your post - there will be many more opportunities,
regards,
HS
Hi Hapasasa,

I didn't wanted to sound mean,
but I hold very close to my pro ethics.
Complacency develops bad trading habits, if you can understand.
Once the bad habits entrench, then traders begin to lose their pro mindset.
It is not prudent to let your guard down.
Not with markets.
Believe me, you let yopur guard down and it will claw you.
If not this time, surely sometime.
Hope you understand.

regards

PS: In short, its unwise to be penny wise and pound foolish.
  • #1,584
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:59pm Mar 2, 2008 1:59pm
Quoting mijamoto
If i take water as an example that would mean. Water moves with it's natural way and beacuse of gravitiy ( If we go in mountains current is greater than in plains due to gravitiy). On water's road are rocks and it break them all and make a chanell. In another occasion there can be very big rocks and is impossible to smash it so water go around and deep a another channel. Rivers life is also dependable on how money streams goes in and of rain. It's imposible to predict how deep will water be beacuse of all conditions (sun, rain,temperature ) but we can say due to our experience, when it rains surfaces goes up and if there is a drought for a long time surface will go down. And we can also claim in winter waters shape will be stable beacuse of ice and low temperatures(but there are exceptions) in autumn and spring it will be very volitle but in general higher and in summer it will fall. I hope i got it right :S Life teached us
I emphasize that law of vibration is a consequence of law of motion. Higher motion- higher vibration and vice versa. Our MO have to work out what is the motion and dance with the vibration. For dance we use MM (attack, rescue)
FTI i am sorry if i am pushy but you didn't reply. Did i get it right if i didn't can you give me more tips to solve this, what i see as very very important
  • #1,585
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:16pm Mar 2, 2008 2:16pm
Quoting mijamoto
FTI i am sorry if i am pushy but you didn't reply. Did i get it right if i didn't can you give me more tips to solve this, what i see as very very important
Hi mijamoto,

What you have discribed is right.
Thats why I started this thread, to try and help some traders, esp new traders.
What you stated are just the educated view.
When in position, the ability to hold to correct mindset, distinguishes "the men from the boys."
My methodology and training sequense is given in the thread.
You have to read it slowly and allow set in, and internalise it, to work for you.
You have to think, and use it in real market situations to understand it.
To understand it you have to use it.
The markets will teach you,
If you don't learn, then it will teach you again and again.
Until you sync with it or fail.
Please read carefully and research what I have given.
There are limitations on a thread, that I cannot hand hold you.

By the way Sun Zi Bing Fa is the oldest military thesis in the world.

Please start from the begining again, and find the methodology that I have posted. slowwwwly.

regards
  • #1,586
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:21pm Mar 2, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting fti
Hi Hapasasa,

I didn't wanted to sound mean,
but I hold very close to my pro ethics.
Complacency develops bad trading habits, if you can understand.
Once the bad habits entrench, then traders begin to lose their pro mindset.
It is not prudent to let your guard down.
Not with markets.
Believe me, you let yopur guard down and it will claw you.
If not this time, surely sometime.
Hope you understand.

regards

PS: In short, its unwise to be penny wise and pound foolish.
Hi again fti,

You didn´t sound mean - just direct to the point.

I would have placed a stop loss but even then this can lead to bad habits.
I understand what you said and it does no harm to be reminded of such things.
Regards,
HS
  • #1,587
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:24pm Mar 2, 2008 2:24pm
Quoting fti
Hi mijamoto,

What you have discribed is right.
Thats why I started this thread, to try and help some traders, esp new traders.
What you stated are just the educated view.
When in position, the ability to hold to correct mindset, distinguishes "the men from the boys."
My methodology and training sequense is given in the thread.
You have to read it slowly and allow set in, and internalise it, to work for you.
You have to think, and use it in real market situations to understand it.
To understand it you have to use it.
The markets will teach you,
If you don't learn, then it will teach you again and again.
Until you sync with it or fail.
Please read carefully and research what I have given.
There are limitations on a thread, that I cannot hand hold you.

By the way Sun Zi Bing Fa is the oldest military thesis in the world.

Please start from the begining again, and find the methodology that I have posted. slowwwwly.

regards
As i said before few weeks ago i read whole thread in 2 days and i saved most important points of AOW and read it once a week. I started to trade your way and make all trades positive on demo account. But than came in me like a gambling person so i thaught at 1.49 EURO is overvalued and started to short on demo. I added always on position and i made catastrophic loss (Now is EUR/USD 1.52 ). I really respect all your effort and all your words started to change me as a person. Well i don't live in a rich family so life learned me a lot.I always says Einstain's state : Everything is relative nothing is constant. I hope you will continue with your teaching and i will reread thread slowly and deeply
  • #1,588
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:25pm Mar 2, 2008 2:25pm
If i take water as an example that would mean. Water moves with it's natural way and beacuse of gravitiy ( If we go in mountains current is greater than in plains due to gravitiy). On water's road are rocks and it break them all and make a chanell. In another occasion there can be very big rocks and is impossible to smash it so water go around and deep a another channel. Rivers life is also dependable on how money streams goes in and of rain. It's imposible to predict how deep will water be beacuse of all conditions (sun, rain,temperature ) but we can say due to our experience, when it rains surfaces goes up and if there is a drought for a long time surface will go down. And we can also claim in winter waters shape will be stable beacuse of ice and low temperatures(but there are exceptions) in autumn and spring it will be very volitle but in general higher and in summer it will fall.


What you are confirming is that the market has life,
It has a pulse ,and rythem, and that determines its behaviour.
Your job as a trader is to gauge its pulse and move accordingly to sync with,it.
You will mostly be able to do that if you listen and watch it, there is no otherway. The varables are enormous , and only the human mind, can be trained to "dance" its millions of colours and variations. Just like water the market will take the course of least resistance. The mind can capture that picture , only the timing may be slightly out paced. Thats why you have to have rescue options to align with the flow again.

If you are agaist flow, and remain to be sturborn cos of ego or any other reason, it will kill you. You have to "give" , and yield to the flow and pulse of the markets. Let her teach you her rythem, don't impose any of your thoughts on her.

You must also know how to take advantage of her, when you are in sync with her. And know when its safe to "force".
Therefore "the dance", learn AOW well.

regards
  • #1,589
  • Mar 2, 2008 2:28pm Mar 2, 2008 2:28pm

"In every law of nature there is a major and a minor; a positive, a negative, and a neutral. Therefore, in cycles there must be a lesser, a greater and intermediate cycle, or cycles within cycles. Like Ezekiel says: "Wheel within a wheel.” " pag 78.


Meaning:
1-the short time frame is contained within the long time frame.
2-PA is fractal-like: cycles contained withing cycles.
3-there is always a reversal waiting for happening.



My point?


Was he dancing?
16 trades a day seems like a short time frame and tight dance to me!
16 trades within a 8 hour day means ONE trade every 30 min.
Straight MM, right?


These are my silly thoughts so far.

Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,590
  • Edited 3:10pm Mar 2, 2008 2:47pm | Edited 3:10pm
Quoting mijamoto
As i said before few weeks ago i read whole thread in 2 days and i saved most important points of AOW and read it once a week. I started to trade your way and make all trades positive on demo account. But than came in me like a gambling person so i thaught at 1.49 EURO is overvalued and started to short on demo. I added always on position and i made catastrophic loss (Now is EUR/USD 1.52 ). I really respect all your effort and all your words started to change me as a person. Well i don't live in a rich family so life learned me a lot.I always says Einstain's state : Everything is relative nothing is constant. I hope you will continue with your teaching and i will reread thread slowly and deeply
Yes, that's your 1st lesson, ability to read when you are not mistimed, but on wrong trend. The only way to get out of wrong trend id not to turn, but to have the fortitude to take the punches,(bleeding), then use muscle to recover. If no muscle )$$) then finit.

Use the basics of trend defination to determine your trend bias always, never risk into nomans land.(unless with foreign capital, ie profits. always dance within the volatility scope of the market. You must NEVER be caught on the wrong side of a term trend. NEVER. If you ever get on its wrong side, Only money management can save you , and if you have not preplanned a reasue scenerio, then youare finished. If you planned your MM well then you have the chance to survive to fight another day.

Further inability to resync when against the wave , while implimentation of rescue will kill you there fore like lusan said " spiral within spirals".

regards

gotta go, another day,bye 4 now.

Oh my bicam mind just reminded me.
As you will learn from this thread, your rescue is a minimum geometric spiral, smallest which is a fibo,
You must also learn to wind a trend ride spiral correctly.
And if you cannot dance well, whatever your MM , it will still kill you.
So think carefully.

Remember rigidity kills.
  • #1,591
  • Mar 2, 2008 3:00pm Mar 2, 2008 3:00pm
Well for trend determination, i just watch if it has move up from one corner to another on screen or down I always check what FA sentiment is and look for PA and i like pinochio bars(long shadow and demand is equal to supply) i really have no clue about complex and compound bars ( i noticed you posted books about it but i can't find them on internet). As you always claim everyone has his own style and we learn through time what is the most suitable for us. And i use only MA (48) and i check where previous supports and resistance were Thx for your advices and i hope i will succed in this game and beat thouse up who discouarge me

regards
  • #1,592
  • Edited 3:45pm Mar 2, 2008 3:04pm | Edited 3:45pm
FTI ,
The New York Federal Reserve Exposition you site...Is Sugar-coating the stark reality.
The Global Monetary system is based on MORE PAPER and spend your way to PROSPERITY.
The wild Currency Gyrations are due to the fact that there is NOT enough GOLD to cover the SEA OF CONFETTI currencies that are sloshing around in the world.... So in order to (in Vain) try to preserve the PURCHASING POWER of any FIAT CURRENCY, MONEY (Which is NOT WEALTH) Runs in the direction of LESS TOTAL INFLATION (Interest Paid Minus Inflationary Depreciation)

email me [email protected] and ask ECONOMICS_in_one_Lesson.pdf or do a google search for it.
here is the download link http://www.fee.org/pdf/books/Economi...one_lesson.pdf ....more later
fxgreek



Maybe if you will ponder on this questions ?
What is the market you are actually trading in?
Whos market is it? whos the owner?
Why does it move? What makes it move?
Have you heard of "open market operation"?

We are actually going into the Structure of the Markets.
If you have time, read this link carefully.

http://www.ny.frb.org/education/addpub/usfxm/
also wiki about "Bretton Woods Agreement"

For Indept understanding read this book, I think may be out of print. try library
"Paper Money" by Adam Smith, dell publishing Co copyright by George J W Goodman.1981
  • #1,593
  • Mar 2, 2008 3:41pm Mar 2, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting fxgreek
FTI ,
The New York Federal Reserve Exposition you site...Is Sugar-coating the stark reality.
The Global Monetary system is based on MORE PAPER and spend your way to PROSPERITY.
The wild Currency Gyrations are due to the fact that there is NOT enough GOLD to cover the SEA OF CONFETTI currencies that are sloshing around in the world.... So in order to (in Vain) try to preserve the PURCHASING POWER of any FIAT CURRENCY, MONEY (Which is NOT WEALTH) Runs in the direction of LESS TOTAL INFLATION (Interest Paid Minus Inflationary Depreciation)

email me [email protected] and ask ECONOMICS_in_one_Lesson.pdf or do a google search for it.
here is the download link http://www.fee.org/pdf/books/Economi...one_lesson.pdf ....more later
fxgreek



Maybe if you will ponder on this questions ?
What is the market you are actually trading in?
Whos market is it? whos the owner?
Why does it move? What makes it move?
Have you heard of "open market operation"?

We are actually going into the Structure of the Markets.
If you have time, read this link carefully.

http://www.ny.frb.org/education/addpub/usfxm/
also wiki about "Bretton Woods Agreement"

For Indept understanding read this book, I think may be out of print. try library
"Paper Money" by Adam Smith, dell publishing Co copyright by George J W Goodman.1981
@fxgreek,

The linked documents are an education into the Monetary structure of the existing market ecomomy and its transition from the Bretton wood "Gold Standard" economy and monetary system. This is practised in most of the major "free market economies".

It does not point to whether this Modus Operandi of management of wealth is correct nor the best. Just that, that is the structure. This structure embraces the use of goods and services as the base and a "free floated market" structure for international trade.

There however exist, since the WW 2, alternate systems as in pegged market structure and managed floated systems of ecomomies practised in certain countries. Which have a different basis. These have its own merits and are not freely tradable.

Alternatively, non acceptance of the system, or failure of the susytem, requires the settlement of international trade and debt by means of alienation or war.

regards
  • #1,594
  • Mar 2, 2008 3:58pm Mar 2, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting fti
@fxgreek,

The linked documents are an education into the Monetary structure of the existing market economy and its transition from the Bretton wood "Gold Standard" economy and monetary system. This is practiced in most of the major "free market economies".

It does not point to whether this Modus Operandi of management of wealth is correct nor the best. Just that, that is the structure. This structure embraces the use of goods and services as the base and a "free floated market" structure for international trade.

There however exist, since the WW 2, alternate systems as in pegged market structure and managed floated systems of economies practiced in certain countries. Which have a different basis. These have its own merits and are not freely tradable.

Alternatively, non acceptance of the system, or failure of the system, requires the settlement of international trade and debt by means of alienation or war.

regards
FTI,

Now we are getting to the bottom of the barrel and the essence of the situation....as to why IRAQ was attacked,
and WHY IRAN is the next target!
After all...It would be BAD FORM for America to be seen attacking it's allies directly at present (European Union) . SO attacking the proxies will do for now.
  • #1,595
  • Mar 2, 2008 4:04pm Mar 2, 2008 4:04pm
So FXGreek, why was Iraq attacked? And why do you think Iran is next? Im not questioning your opinion, but interested on your thoughts on this..
  • #1,596
  • Mar 2, 2008 4:21pm Mar 2, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting fxgreek
FTI,

Now we are getting to the bottom of the barrel and the essence of the situation....as to why IRAQ was attacked,
and WHY IRAN is the next target!
After all...It would be BAD FORM for America to be seen attacking it's allies directly at present (European Union) . SO attacking the proxies will do for now.
@fxgreek,
Much that I may like to entertain you on the issue.
It is beyond my scope as a trader, to deliberate on matters of government and politics.

I would be much obliged, if you would like to start another thread on your
subject of contention.

regards
  • #1,597
  • Mar 2, 2008 6:42pm Mar 2, 2008 6:42pm
Quoting totalpips
So FXGreek, why was Iraq attacked? And why do you think Iran is next? Im not questioning your opinion, but interested on your thoughts on this..
Iraq for the OIL
and IRAN for establishing an OIL Bourse for TRADING OIL using EURO as the BASIS Currency.
  • #1,598
  • Mar 2, 2008 6:55pm Mar 2, 2008 6:55pm
Quoting fti
@fxgreek,
Much that I may like to entertain you on the issue.
It is beyond my scope as a trader, to deliberate on matters of government and politics.

I would be much obliged, if you would like to start another thread on your
subject of contention.

regards
FTI
I am Here to LEARN to TRADE profitably!
NO for the entertainments!
And certaily... I am NOT LOOKING to BE entertained!

If I am reading things correctly.
This is a thread that TROWS COLD WATER on Technical analysis.
AND I am SAYING rightly SO!
If one is to make a correct TRADING DECISION! One MUST HAVE an ACCURATE GRASP of the FUNDAMENTALS!
Which Means BUY on an OVERSOLD condition WHILE in and UPTREND!
and SELL and OVERBOUGHT condition in a DOWNTREND!

Now regarding the USD and take your Pick of the marching currency pair.
WHERE DO YOU THINK WE ARE at this moment??

My Job is NOT TO BLOW my own Balloon!
BUT... To Blow HOLES in the HOT AIR balloons of others!

FxGreek
  • #1,599
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:11pm Mar 2, 2008 7:11pm
Ok so how much Oil do you think the US is taking out of Iraq (between 2003 and now)? I do understand that there is a loose agreement in place between the factions in Iraq and the US saying that a certain percentage will be paid to the US as recognition for saving them from tyranny. However I do know first hand that those 'loose' agreements may not be met... Then what?

Also I agree that a bourse through Iran to get to said Oil would be hugely beneficial, however dont you think that instead of attacking a sovereign nation (regardless on what you may personally think of Iran), it would be much easier and beneficial internationally to instead use allied countries close by in the region ie Kuwait (who in my own experiences love America more then most countries, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and finally Turkey)?

Also for the Oil to flow into the pockets of America, you need a stable infrastructure in place. At the present Bush is running out of time. With troop drawdowns about to begin, dont you think that insurgent factions in Iraq would rather just wait until they leave to try to gain their own little slice of the pie. As well you must remember that it was not only America that 'liberated' (and I use that term loosely) but most western countries, Britain, Australia, Italy amongst 40 odd others who contributed in one way or another. Now if it was found that only America benefitted from the oil, what do you think these others would have to say...

Also in regards to the reconstruction of Iraq and the infrastructure, now I dont dispute that iraq is sitting on potentially the most lucrative amount of oil left in the world, but I dont think that is has the capablilities to drill, refine and then ship this oil onto the open market. If so then why for the last four years have there been 100 truck convoy's coming from Kuwait into iraq with oil and refined petroleum products.

I think to say that the ONLY reason Bush went into Iraq is a little bit naive. Remember he wasnt alone, and really I think he is running out of time to get the oil out.
  • #1,600
  • Mar 2, 2008 7:26pm Mar 2, 2008 7:26pm
Sorry FTI for going away from the thread subject I just dont like people making statements that arent true. Yes it seems like an easy excuse to use, but there is a lot more involved in that situation then what was said earlier... Right back on track...lol
17 traders viewing now