Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 79 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,561
  • Mar 2, 2008 9:59am Mar 2, 2008 9:59am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
for those that missed the file.
available for a limited time, here it is again.

regards
This is a great read, thanks fti...on my second reading now.

NP
  • #1,562
  • Mar 2, 2008 10:05am Mar 2, 2008 10:05am
Quoting Northpro
This is a great read, thanks fti...on my second reading now.

NP
@ Northpro,
Thanks for the PM.
Sorry couldn't reply as overwelmed with email while on the move.
read carefully, its written by a trading legend.

regards
  • #1,563
  • Mar 2, 2008 10:07am Mar 2, 2008 10:07am
Book is very good. I am on the 330th page. But i can't understand how he recognized cycles and predicted future in stock markets with bible :S Maybe i am too young :S
  • #1,564
  • Edited 11:24am Mar 2, 2008 11:04am | Edited 11:24am
Quoting mijamoto
Book is very good. I am on the 330th page. But i can't understand how he recognized cycles and predicted future in stock markets with bible :S Maybe i am too young :S
Hi mijamoto,

Read and think carefully,
This legend became famous because of this report:

"in the presence of our representative, 286 transactions in various stocks, in 25 market days, on both the long and short side of the market. 264 of these transactions resulted in profits and 22 trades lost."
The profit rate was up to 92.3%.
During that month, the average interval between trades was only 20 minutes.
On one trading day, he made totally 16 trades, 8 out of them are the reversal points of the intra-day market fluctuation."

It was after he became famous that the techniques known to the world were engineered (to mask)and he came out to sell trading advisory.

Back to basics.

Try to formulate what is being taught now to this sequense of trades.
If you use what's been taught in public. These trades cannot happen.
Talk about masking bull to masses. there's surely one born every day.

His technique is hidden in the story, HINT: "time"
Note 286 trades in 25 days.
You still believe predictive?
believe me, his tech was not predictive, contracy to what he sold to the masses.

Understand what I have presented, then relate to what he did in public record and you will see the truth.

Otherwise you can go buy his other stuff. and get lost in your search. Read the story carefully.

Its all hidden in there.
He then laughts at the gullible masses who goes all ways but the real.
Read how the story, splits into "pure fictional" ways going into the ending.
What does that tell you?

Only the dedicated will stay true , most will deviate.
26 years of study and I tell you, Stay to the basics, or you will be lost.
He won't even teach his son, you think he will teach you outright?

Think!
regards.
  • #1,565
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:16am Mar 2, 2008 11:16am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
for those that missed the file.
available for a limited time, here it is again.

regards
Fti,
Thanks for sharing the ebook
  • #1,566
  • Edited 12:14pm Mar 2, 2008 11:21am | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting mijamoto
Book is very good. I am on the 330th page. But i can't understand how he recognized cycles and predicted future in stock markets with bible :S Maybe i am too young :S
Do you believe in magic?
Or the signs in the stars?
or the mystics?
or that God trades?
then you will be lost.

Plant your feets back on the ground.
then trade , with experience, you will understand the truth.

If you cannot understand, then ask the water fairy in the pond!
They must surely tell. LOL when you get to that part in the book.

Now I must have succeeded in insulting the whole publishing community.
Before you stone me, think!

regards
  • #1,567
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:31am Mar 2, 2008 11:31am
Quoting fti
Hi mijamoto,

Read and think carefully,
This legend became famous because of this report:

"in the presence of our representative, 286 transactions in various stocks, in 25 market days, on both the long and short side of the market. 264 of these transactions resulted in profits and 22 trades lost."
The profit rate was up to 92.3%.
During that month, the average interval between trades was only 20 minutes.
On one trading day, he made totally 16 trades, 8 out of them are the reversal points of the intra-day market fluctuation."

It was after he became famous that the techniques known to the world were engineered (to mask)and he came out to sell trading advisory.

Back to basics.

Try to formulate what is being taught now to this sequense of trades.
If you use what's been taught in public. These trades cannot happen.
Talk about masking bull to masses. there's surely one born every day.

His technique is hidden in the story, HINT: "time"
Note 286 trades in 25 days.
You still believe predictive?
believe me, his tech was not predictive, contracy to what he sold to the masses.

Understand what I have presented, then relate to what he did in public record and you will see the truth.

Otherwise you can go buy his other stuff. and get lost in your search. Read the story carefully.

Its all hidden in there.
He then laughts at the gullible masses who goes all ways but the real.
Read how the story, splits into a million ways going into the ending.
What does that tell you?

Only the dedicated will stay true , most will deviate.
26 years of study and I tell you, Stay to the basics, or you will be lost.
He won't even teach his son, you think he will teach you outright?

Think!
regards.

I am a litle bit confused right now. Robert in the story used pyramiding and never spent more than 10% on the trade. He beated the market beacuse of his strong mentality and he was aware that everything is moving in cycles. He told that for him significant time are : 4 min, 24h, 1 year. Related to the Earth rounding the sun. I also think his oppinon was mainly trend is one which you have to be devoted and love it and he covered counter moves with hedgin if i understood correctly. His money purpose was also only for good of people and to save country and money didn't have any value without Marry. He also invented a microphone which recorded what big players are meant to do, beacuse they were jelaous of his success. That is from the story what i found out in investing section. Gann's success i really can't understand why numbers 286 and 25. I think he was dancing with the market (that supposed to be 20 min interval) and i also don't understand
On one trading day, he made totally 16 trades, 8 out of them are the reversal points of the intra-day market fluctuation."
Was he buying (in way of main trend) when others were selling? I hope fti you can enlighten me a lil bit more or give more tips
  • #1,568
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:35am Mar 2, 2008 11:35am
Quoting mijamoto
I am a litle bit confused right now. Robert in the story used pyramiding and never spent more than 10% on the trade. He beated the market beacuse of his strong mentality and he was aware that everything is moving in cycles. He told that for him significant time are : 4 min, 24h, 1 year. Related to the Earth rounding the sun. I also think his oppinon was mainly trend is one which you have to be devoted and love it and he covered counter moves with hedgin if i understood correctly. His money purpose was also only for good of people and to save country and money didn't have any value without Marry. He also invented a microphone which recorded what big players are meant to do, beacuse they were jelaous of his success. That is from the story what i found out in investing section. Gann's success i really can't understand why numbers 286 and 25. I think he was dancing with the market (that supposed to be 20 min interval) and i also don't understand
On one trading day, he made totally 16 trades, 8 out of them are the reversal points of the intra-day market fluctuation."
Was he buying (in way of main trend) when others were selling? I hope fti you can enlighten me a lil bit more or give more tips
You are right.

used pyramiding and never spent more than 10% on the trade. He beated the market beacuse of his strong mentality and he was aware that everything is moving in cycles.
in red is filler.

Now analyse how I trade, then relate.
Read the thread carefully AGAIN.
With market experience, you will understand.
Cycle=waves.
What is the true cycle?

regards
  • #1,569
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:39am Mar 2, 2008 11:39am
Quoting fti
You are right.

used pyramiding and never spent more than 10% on the trade. He beated the market beacuse of his strong mentality and he was aware that everything is moving in cycles.
in red is filler.

Now analyse how I trade, then relate.
Read the thread carefully AGAIN.

regards
So that means. What goes up that will go down one day and vice-verse. We need just a strong catalyst to change the trend. But why Gann used 20 minutes for interval?
  • #1,570
  • Edited 12:02pm Mar 2, 2008 11:44am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting mijamoto
So that means. What goes up that will go down one day and vice-verse. We need just a strong catalyst to change the trend. But why Gann used 20 minutes for interval?
Wrong.
Law of motion.
Law of vibrations.

20 mins is his average hold.
It is average not fixed.

Change can only come about, when change happens with effects of law of motion.
Remember, Sun Zi Bi Fa?
reread water motion.

The legend mastered the pyrimids mathematics, ie Vincci proportions ie fibo ie WW table.

google & read

"Legend Interviewed by W y c k o f f in 1909......
"Water seeks its level," continued Mr. ...
http://www.tradingfives.com/gann/wd-...paper-1922.htm

regards
  • #1,571
  • Edited 12:25pm Mar 2, 2008 12:03pm | Edited 12:25pm
[quote=mijamoto;1879382]
Quoting fti
Wrong.
Law of motion.
Law of vibrations.

20 mins is his average hold.
It is average not fixed.

Change can only come about, when change happens with effects of law of motion.
Remember, Sun Zi Bi Fa?
reread water motion.

The legend mastered the pyrimids mathematics, ie Vincci proportions ie fibo ie WW table.

google & read

"Legend Interviewed by W y c k o f f in 1909......
"Water seeks its level," continued Mr. ...


Can anyone post "water motion" and law of motion by Sun Zi Bi Fa? I was seeking through thread and couldn't find :S Was Sun Zi Bi Fa a korean soldier who fought for China :S

@mijamoto, you have not read this thread!.
Don't take short cut.
regards

For those following closely,
all the true studies got adulterated with 1 fallacy, "predictive".
Remove that and you have the truth of the reserchers.
even elliott, and others.
That's the thin red line.

regards
  • #1,572
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:25pm Mar 2, 2008 12:25pm
I spent once whole weekend on reading this thread and i read it very fast. I will try to get book Art of War I have saved your lessons 1 and 2 and some principles of AOW but i didn't find water :S
  • #1,573
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:32pm Mar 2, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting mijamoto
I spent once whole weekend on reading this thread and i read it very fast. I will try to get book Art of War I have saved your lessons 1 and 2 and some principles of AOW but i didn't find water :S
AOW is free, its given.
read carefully, understand and practise.
You will not understand unless you read, comprehend and prsctise.
Trade demo, the market will teach you, many lessons.


regards
  • #1,574
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:35pm Mar 2, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting fti
AOW is free, its given.
read carefully, understand and practise.
You will not understand unless you read, comprehend and prsctise.

regards
Sun Zi
""Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground
over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.
Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions."

I hope this is what you wanted to hear
  • #1,575
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:40pm Mar 2, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting mijamoto
Sun Zi
""Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground
over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.
Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions."

I hope this is what you wanted to hear
Yes, but what does it mean?
Think! deeep.
What is its ealationship to the law vibrations and the law of motion?
Whats the MO and MM to defeat it?

regards
  • #1,576
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:41pm Mar 2, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting mijamoto
Book is very good. I am on the 330th page. But i can't understand how he recognized cycles and predicted future in stock markets with bible :S Maybe i am too young :S
Which book are you talking about?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,577
  • Edited 1:09pm Mar 2, 2008 12:49pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting fti
Yes, but what does it mean?
Think! deeep.
What is its ealationship to the law vibrations and the law of motion?
Whats the MO and MM to defeat it?

regards
If i take water as an example that would mean. Water moves with it's natural way and beacuse of gravitiy ( If we go in mountains current is greater than in plains due to gravitiy). On water's road are rocks and it break them all and make a chanell. In another occasion there can be very big rocks and is impossible to smash it so water go around and deep a another channel. Rivers life is also dependable on how money streams goes in and of rain. It's imposible to predict how deep will water be beacuse of all conditions (sun, rain,temperature ) but we can say due to our experience, when it rains surfaces goes up and if there is a drought for a long time surface will go down. And we can also claim in winter waters shape will be stable beacuse of ice and low temperatures(but there are exceptions) in autumn and spring it will be very volitle but in general higher and in summer it will fall. I hope i got it right :S Life teached us
I emphasize that law of vibration is a consequence of law of motion. Higher motion- higher vibration and vice versa. Our MO have to work out what is the motion and dance with the vibration. For dance we use MM (attack, rescue)
  • #1,578
  • Mar 2, 2008 12:51pm Mar 2, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting luSan
Which book are you talking about?
I am talking about Tunnel written by Gann what have FTI posted today
  • #1,579
  • Mar 2, 2008 1:05pm Mar 2, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting Green_David
you can be right in a short time, or you could be right in a long time. But, a trader can never be right all the times, otherwise he will own the world in one month since he makes no mistakes.

Fti and other friends, can you tell me the differences with Eur/Usd three bottoms in late three months. Especially the third bottom, is there any typical bottom pattern for this one?

Have a nice trip, fti.
Hi Green David,

I canīt answer your question.
So far no one else has so FWIW, here are my thoughts.
Looking at your chart, the three bottoms look like slightly higher lows in what seems to be a continuing uptrend. The three tops formed almost a level line of resistance, which has been broken.
The uptrend looks like it is still in place on the weekly and monthly charts.
On the dailly a doji has formed, which suggests there could be a pullback, in the very short term anyway.

I have no time to dance tomorrow morning but I am considering placing a sell stop this evening to catch a possible 20-30 pips whilst I am out.
Not in keeping with the concept on this thread I know but the next best thing.
HS
  • #1,580
  • Edited 1:32pm Mar 2, 2008 1:10pm | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting HapaSasa
Hi Green David,

I canīt answer your question.
So far no one else has so FWIW, here are my thoughts.
Looking at your chart, the three bottoms look like slightly higher lows in what seems to be a continuing uptrend. The three tops formed almost a level line of resistance, which has been broken.
The uptrend looks like it is still in place on the weekly and monthly charts.
On the dailly a doji has formed, which suggests there could be a pullback, in the very short term anyway.

I have no time to dance tomorrow morning but I am considering placing a sell stop this evening to catch a possible 20-30 pips whilst I am out.
Not in keeping with the concept on this thread I know but the next best thing.
HS
Hi Hapasasa,
Don't play god.
Give it a miss, if you cannot babysit.
Never play god. The risk must be managed.

We just got out of a USD roller coaster ride, the trend is set.
The exposures must be danced.
Retrace it surely must.
Question is how deep?
what about the CBs?
How much foreign capital have you got?
what forces to expose, for how deep?
Be professional. If you were managing my book , and you did that, I would give you the walking cert , even if you made $$.


regards
22 traders viewing now