Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 78 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,541
  • Feb 22, 2008 12:25pm Feb 22, 2008 12:25pm
Hi,

I can use help.

I am thinking now that to be able to dance, I really need to understand candle sticks and the emotions behind them, Is that right?
Secondly Should I use indicators to confirm what i think I read from the candles ? I am using Stochastic,RSI, MACD and MA
If I do confirm then I am waiting too long, If I go with feeling I am in and out quickly I make profits but very small may be because I am trading small time frames.(1 min, 5 min) (5-10 pips and I am out)

I think one of the biggest hurdle I have dancing is fear.
Thinking of trading as dance, market as a monster and me at war puts me in the right mindset no more stop losses for me thanks to fti.
Meditation helps me remove emotions from trading and give me courage only if did it every day.

Looking forward to your advice.

Many thanks
  • #1,542
  • Feb 22, 2008 3:35pm Feb 22, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting ksl
Hi,

I can use help.

I am thinking now that to be able to dance, I really need to understand candle sticks and the emotions behind them, Is that right?
Secondly Should I use indicators to confirm what i think I read from the candles ? I am using Stochastic,RSI, MACD and MA
If I do confirm then I am waiting too long, If I go with feeling I am in and out quickly I make profits but very small may be because I am trading small time frames.(1 min, 5 min) (5-10 pips and I am out)

I think one of the biggest hurdle I have dancing is fear.
Thinking of trading as dance, market as a monster and me at war puts me in the right mindset no more stop losses for me thanks to fti.
Meditation helps me remove emotions from trading and give me courage only if did it every day.

Looking forward to your advice.

Many thanks
Ksl,

My thoughts and only my thoughts as far as I understand the forex dance.

1) No indicators of any type. If you use them, you are not dancing according to this thread. Indicators place a time and awareness gap between you and the market
2) No stops. If you use them, then you are already accepting a losing game. Losses are not accepted.
3) No trades but campaigns. Trades are not more than single battles to win a larger war.
3) No emotions allowed. It is a dance where we observed the market and make buying and selling decision following the current trend.

Regarding fear: You must play very small to train your mind not to bring emotions into the trade and to buy and sell according to wha the market tells you.

Time frame? I do the 5M and the 1M. Using fti strategy I bring home 50 pips a day by trading only 1 hour. This time frame are very fast and tough fight.

Candle? I believe that in the 5M and 1M time frame, candle are useless. I do not use them. They might be good at the 1H. The 1H and 15M is to determine the general trend.

Feelings? No, you must go with a MM strategy! Feelings will kill you.

Meditation? The dance is a meditation! You must merge with the market. I discovered that even trendlines stop me from being in the present moment. I dumped all trend lines and S/R.

fti and others described very well this approach. You must read the whole 100+ pages. This is a lot but since you mentioned indicators it seems that you have NOT captured the soul of the forex dance. Read the whole thing, look at the examples.

Good luck and happy piping.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,543
  • Feb 23, 2008 2:35am Feb 23, 2008 2:35am
Quoting luSan
Ksl,


Candle? I believe that in the 5M and 1M time frame, candle are useless. I do not use them. They might be good at the 1H. The 1H and 15M is to determine the general trend.

Feelings? No, you must go with a MM strategy! Feelings will kill you.

Meditation? The dance is a meditation! You must merge with the market. I discovered that even trendlines stop me from being in the present moment. I dumped all trend lines and S/R.
Hi luSan,

I would just like to ask you regarding candlesticks. You say in the 5m and 1m t/f they are useless, so does this mean you simply enter the trade at any moment regardless of anything and then use fti`s MM to either press the trade or rescue it?
The reason I ask is that in a previous post where you posted an example it looked to me like the candlesticks played a part in your entry for a short sharp dance.

Thanks in advance,
regards,
HS
  • #1,544
  • Feb 23, 2008 3:14am Feb 23, 2008 3:14am
Hi, fti:

How is your trip? Nice?

I have a question. How you deall with news announcement? After a significant economice data released, some times market will react immediately with large move or spike, sometims it takes some time(say 15 minutes to make true move) like last thursday when Phil Man. Index released.

You will be light positioned, is it right? I rememember you said once not trade into news anouncement.
  • #1,545
  • Feb 23, 2008 3:40am Feb 23, 2008 3:40am
As far as i am concerned it would take me good few years to understand how the markets are structured and what are the strongest pillar and the weakest. How can i understand the market if you have few announcement evry day that would swing yor brain left and right then up and down. How on earth would it take you to really comprehend the structure of the market and make money out of it. If you are talking about a position that you would keep for a decade or so that would make sense, but if you want to make the forex trading as a job it would make sense if you started with the indicators reading and then you move into the rythem of the markets as you go along.
What i really believe is that no body would ever make sense of the daily price movements, probably on the long run the market does make sense. Who is prepared to wait for ever to understand. That is why i lost my money i suppose. all the best for all of you.
  • #1,546
  • Feb 23, 2008 7:17am Feb 23, 2008 7:17am
Quoting HapaSasa
Hi luSan,

I would just like to ask you regarding candlesticks. You say in the 5m and 1m t/f they are useless, so does this mean you simply enter the trade at any moment regardless of anything and then use fti`s MM to either press the trade or rescue it?
The reason I ask is that in a previous post where you posted an example it looked to me like the candlesticks played a part in your entry for a short sharp dance.

Thanks in advance,
regards,
HS
You are correct: I do not use candles even when I have greatly studied them. I do not trust them, they make me lazy and I stop watching the market. I think that the new high gaps and the new low gaps and wave formations -without any crazy counting- tell me more and help my market awareness.

As per one of my previous post, (1) I look at the 1D-1H time frame. I want to know what is going on. (2) I look at the 15M and I observe its direction. (3) I move to the 5M time frame and I decide on going long or short. If 15M and 5M agree, then I enter without stress. If they disagree, then I most likely will go with the 5M advise, knowing that I must keep a sharp eye on the PA because it will a very short campaign full of danger.

I am always in. Why? Because I plan to trade only for 1H, from 4:00-5:00 AM.

Within 1 hour, I have only 13-15M candles of about 15 pips. I cannot waste my time waiting for a candle formation. For example, the "kicker" is 4 candles. That is 20 min. Way to long! A 'doji" is 5 min and does not tell me anything at all about direction. Any engulfing is not good, because in my dance if there a large jump up I move to the 1M and take advantage of the expected inmediate fall: I will reject the signal and I might even quickly go against the engulfing.

I do not play the news. Spread is too large and the market is totally crazy.

Well...take my advise with 20 pounds of salt...I am just learning...I think that everyone must find his or her own way of dancing. Check on fti kpost #1462, and several other from leighsww. They have their own way to do this. MikeD has its own way.. I believe that entering and exiting are not as important as how you manage the campaign (MM)...

I am just a beginner dancing; be careful. I have some ideas about modifying my dance but my constrains of 1H trading/day and current ability of extracting about 60pips/day is enough.

Good luck
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,547
  • Feb 23, 2008 7:21am Feb 23, 2008 7:21am
Quoting Green_David
Zoran, Northpro, MickD, Leighw and other guys will keep the tread active (my appreciation and respects to them also), they are very good.

Thanks again.

David
David

I'll probably be taking a back seat until fti returns. In the mean time I'll be re-reading this thread and other trading material that fti has recommended.

Take care...
  • #1,548
  • Feb 23, 2008 7:27am Feb 23, 2008 7:27am
Quoting Green_David
I think lots of people here already watched this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k08yxu57NA

Hope enjoy it.
He was good and won the show, here is the runner up.

Inserted Video
  • #1,549
  • Feb 23, 2008 6:37pm Feb 23, 2008 6:37pm
luSan
Time frame? I do the 5M and the 1M. Using fti strategy I bring home 50 pips a day by trading only 1 hour. This time frame are very fast and tough fight.

Candle? I believe that in the 5M and 1M time frame, candle are useless. I do not use them. They might be good at the 1H. The 1H and 15M is to determine the general trend.

Thank you for your reply LuSan
That is very impressive I mean 50 pips in one hour.
Candle sticks are slow -- exactly what I was feeling as I wait for them to form so the ticks are the fastest do you keep an eye on them and decide ?
You are absolutely right I need to digest the info in this post i.e. read again , infact what fti has taught us in this post is not only good for trading but is good for life i.e. it applies to other parts of life too.

The emotional control.
Inserted Video

Inserted Video

Inserted Video

Inserted Video

Inserted Video


I think I got the third one wrong

Regards
ksl
  • #1,550
  • Feb 23, 2008 7:25pm Feb 23, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting ksl
luSan
Time frame? I do the 5M and the 1M. Using fti strategy I bring home 50 pips a day by trading only 1 hour. This time frame are very fast and tough fight.

Candle? I believe that in the 5M and 1M time frame, candle are useless. I do not use them. They might be good at the 1H. The 1H and 15M is to determine the general trend.


Thank you for your reply LuSan
That is very impressive I mean 50 pips in one hour.
Candle sticks are slow -- exactly what I was feeling as I wait for them to form so the ticks are the fastest do you keep an eye on them and decide ?
You are absolutely right I need to digest the info in this post i.e. read again , infact what fti has taught us in this post is not only good for trading but is good for life i.e. it applies to other parts of life too.

The emotional control.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hitAHKGqJZI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJhxmdyGC5c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqyrD1JGUSQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62vC_jfPisc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg1H4uvk-Go

I think I got the third one wrong

Regards
ksl

I trade the 5M but I keep an eye on the 30S to commit more troops either for my 1-2-3 attack or 3-9-20 rescue sequence. - The 10S is too noisy.

Watch the 30S and you will see that the PA behaves as the waves of a sea going up or down. These are waves upon waves as the market was singing a melody. Truly a non-linear chaotic behavior. It feels as it was alive.

I have yet to consider the philosophical implications of AOW. I will do soon.

Impressive? People say this is impossible. I do not believe myself but it is true. Note that in fti example, he traded each individual candle. That is a very aggresive way to trade. I still do not have the gut to do it.

I am trading very small units -live trade, no demo- because it is somewhat scary. Demos are totally useless because we do not commit our Ego with it. As I gain confidence, I will increase my troop size.

Good luck.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #1,551
  • Feb 24, 2008 3:09am Feb 24, 2008 3:09am
Quoting luSan
Well...take my advise with 20 pounds of salt...I am just learning...I think that everyone must find his or her own way of dancing. Check on fti kpost #1462, and several other from leighsww. They have their own way to do this. MikeD has its own way.. I believe that entering and exiting are not as important as how you manage the campaign (MM)...

I am just a beginner dancing; be careful. I have some ideas about modifying my dance but my constrains of 1H trading/day and current ability of extracting about 60pips/day is enough.

Good luck
Hi luSan,

Thanks for your explanation. I have not tried dancing yet, only when I am back home next month.
fti in response to one of my posts said that I first need to send a scout in to inform myself of the market and not wait for when I think a trend has started.
I think this is what you are doing and as you say entering and exiting are not as important as MM.

I understand each of us has to find his own way.

60 pips in the first hour of the day is a great start,
good trading!
HS
  • #1,552
  • Feb 24, 2008 3:28am Feb 24, 2008 3:28am
Hi!

My first post here.

I think you all, FTI too, should know that.

You could "dance" whatever "music" you would like to. But "the piano" is always played by others.

http://www.forex-tsd.com/187170-post7899.html

http://www.forex-tsd.com/185788-post7896.html
  • #1,553
  • Feb 24, 2008 4:54am Feb 24, 2008 4:54am
Quoting Zoran
He was good and won the show, here is the runner up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWNoiVrJDsE
Thanks. But not as touching as Paul.

There is a story behind. Paul likes opera. He used to ride a bicycle to the place where he practices opera and he keeps doing that for about 8 years from 28 to 37 years old. Yet, he is a just salesman selling mobile phone and owed 30k pounds debt due to his illness.

He never stops his dreaming. And he makes it finally.
  • #1,554
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:06pm Feb 24, 2008 9:06pm
Alright, just read this whole thread and its the best thing i have read about trading. The method was just what i was looking for just pure PA.
  • #1,555
  • Feb 27, 2008 2:14am Feb 27, 2008 2:14am
Thanks fti for sharing your experience as a trader.
  • #1,556
  • Feb 27, 2008 12:21pm Feb 27, 2008 12:21pm
Hi ALL,
Hope your battles are fulfilling,
Have been off base and will be travelling again.

Seems pretty quiet here, just popin to tell that all is well for me.
Took a look at the markets, seems the feds gonna have their hands full soon.
Dance well.


regards

PS:
@ marc
They may own the piano and maybe the dance floor as well (your point is understood), but I have the rythem as well as my feet. And I can find the better dances (true markets) and I fear not the traitors (rogue brokers) in my camp, cos I know how to spot them. Merlin have given good hints.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=68598

Remember the poem ? " the charge of the light brigade(600)."
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip My Memories.zip   1.1 MB | 1,385 downloads
  • #1,557
  • Edited Feb 28, 2008 1:24am Feb 27, 2008 1:31pm | Edited Feb 28, 2008 1:24am
Hi ALL,

The Charge of the Light Brigade
Alfred, Lord Tennyson

1.

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

2.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Their's not to make reply,
Their's not to reason why,
Their's but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

3.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

4.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

5.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

6.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.

Copied from Poems of Alfred Tennyson,
J. E. Tilton and Company, Boston, 1870
http://poetry.eserver.org/light-brigade.html

This is my version. ( Sorry, Sir Alfred Tennyson but thank you for the beautiful poem)

The Charge of Sun Zi Brigade

1.

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of victory
Rode the 'Sun' Brigade.
"Forward, the Brigade!
"Charge for the runs!" he said:
Into the valley of victory
Rode the Sun's Brigade.

2.

"Forward, the "Sun's Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
We will not blunder:
It is not theirs (the charts) to reason why,
But to signal Sell or Buy,
For the market to pay for my ride,
Because my charts , they cannot lie,
Into the valley of victory
Rode the Sun's Brigade.


3.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Away from the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of plenty
Rode the Sun's Brigade.

4.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Others Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the Sun's Brigade.

5.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All and more of them,
More than the Sun's Brigade.

6.

When can their glory fade?
O the fine charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made,
Honour this trades I made,
of the Noble Sun's Brigade.

-------END----------

While I am unavailable, here 's something to read. READ carefully.

PS: for the many PM's, I am sorry but I am on the road, so I will answer them when I can. Please be patience.

regards
  • #1,558
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:43pm Feb 27, 2008 1:43pm
Glad to see you pop in for a visit...you've been missed!! The dancing is going well..still not as fluid as I would like but getting better. Thanks for the pdf.

Looking forward to your return as well as Leighs.

Regards,
NP
  • #1,559
  • Feb 27, 2008 5:37pm Feb 27, 2008 5:37pm
you can be right in a short time, or you could be right in a long time. But, a trader can never be right all the times, otherwise he will own the world in one month since he makes no mistakes.

Fti and other friends, can you tell me the differences with Eur/Usd three bottoms in late three months. Especially the third bottom, is there any typical bottom pattern for this one?

Have a nice trip, fti.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu0228.JPG Size: 96 KB
  • #1,560
  • Edited 2:14pm Feb 28, 2008 9:56am | Edited 2:14pm
I have just completed the thread, what a read.

A big thank you to fti ( what a decent chap) and all the support staff (leigh,Zoran,MickD,Northpro& others).

I have a few questions for fti,but they can wait.

I have tried a couple of trades using the principle of attack & defence $ cost averaging as mentioned by our leader, & yes I find the process quite enlightening.

I scribble down my battle plan as the conflict unfolds, I find this helps focus my attention. I actually plan my assault as I imagine a commander might.

I start my attack from an enemy exhaustion barrier( this could be a spike down on a currency pair with a uptrend bias) this is a point that I now mark as the extreme range of the enemy's attacking ability, this is my entry point with one foraging pioneer, I then have marked on the chart forward objectives, as each objective is breached I commit further troops. The method I use for mapping these objectives is by using fib levels added to a moving average. No doubt I am going to incur the roth of fti on this point.

I will be away now for a few days, but can't wait to return so that I can carry out further attacks.

Happy trading,

BabeFX.


I am wrong until the market proves me right.
27 traders viewing now