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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,801
  • Jan 16, 2007 12:54am Jan 16, 2007 12:54am
Quoting southernmind
Isn't the increase in interest before the release of CPI data a good indicator that the data is greater than anticipated? I read a report that whether it is above or below 3% the pound should rise.
Yes, I read that they raised interest rates because they expect the number to be quite high. If it isn't at least 3% it could be bad for the £
Thanks, Damian Burrowes
  • #1,802
  • Jan 16, 2007 12:57am Jan 16, 2007 12:57am
Quoting notouch
Expectations are now of a 3% rise so it would take more than that to push cable up. Ideally I'd like to see 1.975 resistance hold before initiating a short. If it doesn't hold then 1.985 is the next target.

I read that the cable might go up anyway because if it is below 3% it means they saw something else that caused them to hike interest rates. Otherwise, they would have left it alone or cut it.
  • #1,803
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:00am Jan 16, 2007 1:00am
2% is their target so they were right to increase rates whether inflation was 2.8% or 3.2%. There's no chance of a rate cut any time this year.
  • #1,804
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:03am Jan 16, 2007 1:03am
Support and resistence with a 41 pip difference between the two. Keep in mind when it breaks either point with the daily avergae being 138 pips and the mean( the most common pip movement for the pound) being around 125 pips on the average there is a potential of 80 to 90 pips to get. Plenty of pips yet to had during the day. Based on past performance of all of 2006 and up to yesterday the pound has moved atleast a 100 72.1% of the time and 90 pips are more 81.8% of the time.
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  • #1,805
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:04am Jan 16, 2007 1:04am
Okay, I lied, one more post but here comes Frankfurt... Tradin' time!

Notouch, if 4 people "in the know" trade with 4 billion USD, do they not have the same price movement power as 100,000 people trading 160,000 USD each? Do you have 160,000 USD? If so you're one out of 100,000. George Soros could whip your ass any day of the week, and he has enough money to move the market wherever he wants. He probably knows somebody at the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, too.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,806
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:04am Jan 16, 2007 1:04am
thats a 100 pips.
  • #1,807
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:13am Jan 16, 2007 1:13am
London still hasn't woken up to the headlines that 3% CPI is expected. There's more up room to go.
  • #1,808
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:21am Jan 16, 2007 1:21am
This is a quote from one of my sources that just trades the new
CPI is considered the #1 measure of inflation in the UK, and the government heavily relies on this data to make future interest rate decisions. We have three main figures coming up. We had the monthly CPI, we have the yearly CPI, and we have the Core CPI. Even though generally speaking core CPI is the most important inflation measure, that's not the case in UK, at least not yet. They started releasing their core numbers only a few months ago, and at this point not enough players care about them. The biggest focus is on headline annual number, which came out at record high last month, and is expected to match that or even come out higher than that. The expectations are that the annual CPI report will come out at 2.8% or so If it comes out at 3.0% or higher, not only would it be new record high, but it would also be at a psychological 3 level, so that should be positive for the pound since UK government may do another rate hike eventually. So a reading of 3% or above would signify a long on GBP/USD. If the number reads at 2.6% or lower that would signify not only a lower than expected number but also a lower inflation than it was last month, and would possibly be weakening for GBP/USD
  • #1,809
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:27am Jan 16, 2007 1:27am
There is a strong divergence forming on 400 tick in the upper range for bear market. If price turs soon and pattern is confirmed, it could indicate a move down to 1.9300 area. Same goes for 1600 tick chart and weekly chart. As for the news, i dont want to sound so simplistic, but all of this talk is based on rumor. Isn't the adage, buy the rumor, sell the news?Just an opinion
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,810
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:29am Jan 16, 2007 1:29am
Quoting Leugimp
There is a strong divergence forming on 400 tick in the upper range for bear market. If price turs soon and pattern is confirmed, it could indicate a move down to 1.9300 area. Same goes for 1600 tick chart and weekly chart. As for the news, i dont want to sound so simplistic, but all of this talk is based on rumor. Isn't the adage, buy the rumor, sell the news?Just an opinion
news already discounted in price. surprise interest rate suggests that. think you are right. spike on the news, then fall.

stay put.
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,811
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:30am Jan 16, 2007 1:30am
One thing is clear there is still no break out from what is now a 50 pip range
  • #1,812
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:37am Jan 16, 2007 1:37am
Goodthings. To help understand your reversal probabilities. Todays range on the pound up to this point is 35 pips. does this mean there is a 25 percent chance of a reversal. Or is the pip count from the opening of the LONDON session. Thanks
  • #1,813
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:40am Jan 16, 2007 1:40am
Price hit 1.9682 is this our breakout???
  • #1,814
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:42am Jan 16, 2007 1:42am
Todays range is now 40 pips. Chance of reversal now 13%???
  • #1,815
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:56am Jan 16, 2007 1:56am
Quoting wryan
Todays range is now 40 pips. Chance of reversal now 13%???
unless of course price reverses. As soon as a turn is confirmed, I'm looking for a move to 9590 level. I believe alot of this move is very very optimistic, at least on the short term, and expectation of high cpi should already be priced in. US data has also been strong lately, albeit with questionable revisions,however I feel that there isn't really any compelling argument either way, or rather there are compelling arguments for both sides and so I expect the dailys to range for some more time, at least until a more difinitive status on Feds future course of action is revealed. Although we may still have some room to the upside for now, I feel a turn is soon due. Short term speculators are too far ahead of longer term investors and this needs to come back in line before a major move materializes. Once again just an opinion. If turn doesn't occur soon, I expect to see some major resistance at 9750.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,816
  • Jan 16, 2007 2:01am Jan 16, 2007 2:01am
150 tick chart is turning, if it holds on close(30 more ticks) below 74 I will take a very small part of my short position here.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,817
  • Jan 16, 2007 2:07am Jan 16, 2007 2:07am
short 2 lots @ 70
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,818
  • Jan 16, 2007 2:13am Jan 16, 2007 2:13am
The opening I use is at 6pm which is 9638
Quoting wryan
Goodthings. To help understand your reversal probabilities. Todays range on the pound up to this point is 35 pips. does this mean there is a 25 percent chance of a reversal. Or is the pip count from the opening of the LONDON session. Thanks
  • #1,819
  • Jan 16, 2007 2:14am Jan 16, 2007 2:14am
Points of interest
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  • #1,820
  • Jan 16, 2007 2:16am Jan 16, 2007 2:16am
Quoting Leugimp
short 2 lots @ 70
Wheres ur stops? Cable is inbetween weekly pivots. Next weekly pivot resistance is 1.9720
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