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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #5,761
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:57am Feb 29, 2008 6:57am
Commodity pairs are going down.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,762
  • Feb 29, 2008 7:06am Feb 29, 2008 7:06am
Quoting DutchTrader
Commodity pairs are going down.
And...

"The bailout of troubled bond insurer Ambac has hit a significant snag, after rating agencies demanded more capital from the consortium of banks involved in the bailout effort, CNBC has learned."
  • #5,763
  • Feb 29, 2008 7:18am Feb 29, 2008 7:18am
Quoting youalreadykn
Update as of 2/13.... ~12550 is the next key level for tomorrow. Any close below there and I'll seriously consider going short. 12805-12810 determines whether we're in a true bull mode or not.

Personally, I expect us to range between 12000-12800 for a while as the market doesn't seem to have a true sense of direction.
Update as of this morning.... the bears are back.

I still expect 12000-12800 to be the range for the month, but we could see a breakout on any horrible news. I just don't see anything moving this market to completely selloff until we really find out how many foreclosures arise because of adjustable rate mortgages in May/June.

Couple that with the good ol "Sell in May and go away" slogan and I'll be looking for the panic selling to begin again in 2-3 months.

Since we didn't break 12800, I'm still confident in my directional bias.... think I'll consider buying some Jul/Sep 08 puts on mini-Dow/mini-S&P.

I'm also waiting for the next Fed cut to load up on some puts on the Euro and Gold. IMF is selling massive gold reserves in April and gold isn't going to continue to run in a recession. The Euro also isn't likely to continue to run in a recession and/or with equities crashing.

I'm bullish on the Euro longer term, but see it coming back to 1.45 when the equity markets resume their downtrend. The May 1.40 EUR puts are only going for $150 though... so tempting to enter now, but will wait.
  • #5,764
  • Feb 29, 2008 7:21am Feb 29, 2008 7:21am
Quoting cesarnc
And...

"The bailout of troubled bond insurer Ambac has hit a significant snag, after rating agencies demanded more capital from the consortium of banks involved in the bailout effort, CNBC has learned."
I heard banks will soon need to post $30B of collateral just to cover the widening spreads of the CDS market. They are stuck between paying a ton now or risking a default where they will have to pay even more later.
  • #5,765
  • Feb 29, 2008 7:32am Feb 29, 2008 7:32am
Quoting youalreadykn
I heard banks will soon need to post $30B of collateral just to cover the widening spreads of the CDS market. They are stuck between paying a ton now or risking a default where they will have to pay even more later.
YEAH BABY!



Come on and SPANK ME with the bad news... i'm naughty!




Ok... got carried away over there... just make E/U go down some more
  • #5,766
  • Feb 29, 2008 7:46am Feb 29, 2008 7:46am
This is just hilarious... personal spending increased while personal income decreased.

And the markets spike up because somehow this is the sign we were expecting that Americans are going out there and buy their way out of the crisis?

How much insanity is out there?
  • #5,767
  • Feb 29, 2008 7:47am Feb 29, 2008 7:47am
The Data that came out was basically unchanged
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,768
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:25am Feb 29, 2008 8:25am
Ash,

Aud speculators are turning into Gbp bulls at the 2.10 level
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,769
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:30am Feb 29, 2008 8:30am
Quoting DutchTrader
Ash,

Aud speculators are turning into Gbp bulls at the 2.10 level


No matter how much you try to explain to them the relationship between the equity and currency markets, they will never understand / listen. All they see are the "Pips" but what they faily to realize that there is a difference. Green and Red Pips.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,770
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:33am Feb 29, 2008 8:33am
Quoting Ash


No matter how much you try to explain to them the relationship between the equity and currency markets, they will never understand / listen. All they see are the "Pips" but what they faily to realize that there is a difference. Green and Red Pips.
Aud rally is dead. Watch next week. This is a dead cat bounce.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,771
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:34am Feb 29, 2008 8:34am
Quoting branco
This is just hilarious... personal spending increased while personal income decreased.
This is a Central Bank's worst nightmare: signs of slowdown (recession?) and inflation at the same time. The old good Mrs. Stagflation.
  • #5,772
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:38am Feb 29, 2008 8:38am
Quoting cesarnc
This is a Central Bank's worst nightmare: signs of slowdown (recession?) and inflation at the same time. The old good Mrs. Stagflation.
Then comes the big daddy of them all, "Hyper-Inflation".
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,773
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:47am Feb 29, 2008 8:47am
Chicago PMI 44.5 lowest since 2001.
Dow
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,774
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:48am Feb 29, 2008 8:48am
Quoting DutchTrader
Chicago PMI 44.5 lowest since 2001.
Dow
Isn't that good news? Meaning it is the worst in 8 years but not 20?
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,775
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:53am Feb 29, 2008 8:53am
Bye bye dollar, dow, carries, bulls, optimism, rally, see'ya all in Hell

http://vxjasonxv.files.wordpress.com...avesbyebye.jpg
http://www.hellorockford.com/Images/...rd_n068272.jpg
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/22/32...21a79e0e69.jpg
  • #5,776
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:57am Feb 29, 2008 8:57am
Quoting cesarnc
Bye bye dollar, dow, carries, bulls, optimism, rally, see'ya all in Hell

http://vxjasonxv.files.wordpress.com...avesbyebye.jpg
http://www.hellorockford.com/Images/...rd_n068272.jpg
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/22/32...21a79e0e69.jpg

Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,777
  • Feb 29, 2008 8:58am Feb 29, 2008 8:58am
Consumer Sentiment (r) (leaked early)
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif 70.870.0

Don't tell me they are going to rally behind this number?
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,778
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:00am Feb 29, 2008 9:00am
Consumer Sentiment 70.8 Released Early Trying To Pull A Fast One On Us And They Lied As Usual....................
  • #5,779
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:00am Feb 29, 2008 9:00am
Quoting Ash
Consumer Sentiment (r) (leaked early)
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif 70.870.0

Don't tell me they are going to rally behind this number?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,780
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:03am Feb 29, 2008 9:03am
Quoting Ash
Consumer Sentiment (r) (leaked early)
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif 70.870.0

Don't tell me they are going to rally behind this number?


What do you mean? It is a good number!



I see Dow 13000 already!
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