The lockup is a joke. Yes, the actual release is subject to lockup. The actual number floats around BLS or various Fed banks for days before it's released, and it is absolutely leaked. I'm not talking about heeding rumors, I'm talking about using technical analysis immediately before the release, something like 15-30 minutes, before spreads are widened, etc., to determine the direction of price immediately after the release. It's a market behavior that I've observed, and that I've been working on, that I would appreciate being taken seriously. Maybe some developmental help wouldn't hurt, let's be constructive...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
Maybe the UK has more integrity than the US, over here the big boys are crooked as hell. They're sure not going to miss punking a number off of a bureaucrat at the BLS for $5000 so they can make a million on NFP. I'm sorry, but this is not an honest market...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
Sorry but the whole idea is a nonsense and this is a serious thread so perhaps you should take your idea to your own thread. For a start there's no guarantee that the buying/selling pressure from those "in the know" is going to be so great that that it would cause a movement in price. There may be more pressure in the opposite direction caused by rumours, position closing, stop running or normal supply and demand pressures.
Unless you've got evidence to back up your "observations" might I kindly suggest you persevere with your research until you come up with some.
The lockup is a joke. Yes, the actual release is subject to lockup. The actual number floats around BLS or various Fed banks for days before it's released, and it is absolutely leaked. I'm not talking about heeding rumors, I'm talking about using technical analysis immediately before the release, something like 15-30 minutes, before spreads are widened, etc., to determine the direction of price immediately after the release. It's a market behavior that I've observed, and that I've been working on, that I would appreciate being taken seriously. Maybe some developmental help wouldn't hurt, let's be constructive...
Ignored
Hey,
I've heard from other fellow traders that the leaks do happen. They point to the many times the GBP/USD starts moving in a direction 15 to 30 minutes before news just to continue in that direction. It would be an interesting exercise for you to post some quick techs 30 to 60 minutes out from the event.
This is a forum with many different methods/ideas. To dismiss someone elses opinion as "nonsense" seems a bit rude.
i trade the news in a way simular tur what dukeofdents is talking about and i can assure you, it works for me.....Maybe you could test it out for yourself(even on a demo account) before calling it nonsense
Those "in the know" trade with billions of dollars, and we trade with thousands. I have simply observed strange price behavior up to an hour before significant news events. Let's all try this on the next NFP with our various technical systems. I use a 4-hour system that still acts really funny within an hour of news. I will start a thread on this subject if you all want to try it out. This is an unorthodox idea, I know, but I think it holds water. Let's just find out...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
everybody calm down. Lets not allow this thread to turn into the other one please.
I have to agree we shouldn't just dismiss it as nonsense, all of us have watched this happen. Whether we can quantify it, I do not know, but it is at least worth looking into. We are here to learn right?
Those "in the know" are obviously a minority so their buying/selling power is obviously going to be outweighed by those not "in the know". I have in fact researched the whole issue and can confirm that it's nonsense. I'm being harsh to save you from blowing your account. There were claims of NFP being leaked because for a few months in a row the price started moving sharply 30 seconds before the release. But then a couple of months ago the move was in the wrong direction.
Do a statistical analysis and you'll find you would lose money if you traded in the way you are suggesting. Your "observations" are probably due to observer bias.
Isn't the increase in interest rates before the release of CPI data a good indicator that the data is greater than anticipated? I read a report that whether it is above or below 3% the pound should rise.
Those "in the know" trade with billions of dollars, and we trade with thousands. I have simply observed strange price behavior up to an hour before significant news events. Let's all try this on the next NFP with our various technical systems. I use a 4-hour system that still acts really funny within an hour of news. I will start a thread on this subject if you all want to try it out. This is an unorthodox idea, I know, but I think it holds water. Let's just find out...
Ignored
Sounds good, it would be worth observing it, I myself would not trade it
I can't touch you, so this will be my last reply. I have observed this behavior, but I do not necessarily trade based on it. Like I said, whatever technical system you employ, observe it before and after news. You may be surprised. I believe that the price action before the news is released is the result of leaks. There is no way to confirm that, because if I have a leaker at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in my pocket I'm not telling anyone.
However, this kind of price behavior does happen! If you can attribute it to anything else, please enlighten me.
Also, thanks for your concern for my account. My intention is to decimate your account with impunity. I want to take your money as fast as you want to give it to me like everyone else in this market. The only reason I even brought this current fact to your attention was because I still feel the need to be a nice guy. I'll quit it from now on...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
Expectations are now of a 3% rise so it would take more than that to push cable up. Ideally I'd like to see 1.975 resistance hold before initiating a short. If it doesn't hold then 1.985 is the next target.
