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  • #861
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:43pm Feb 28, 2008 5:43pm
[quote=kenneith;1876030]Excellent. any thoughts about gj's twin brother, i mean gbp/chf? there is a huge divergence (bullish) that too on daily and the pair still is falling like a rock.


Honestly, I know nothing about divergence plays and I'm not very familiar with the pair either. On my daily charts, 211 looks like it could be a possibility, although a slim one. Weekly charts are crushed on down, so we should see a retracement before heading lower which could make that play out, otherwise, I wouldn't take a position on it. It's just too risky at the moment, and I'd rather take A trades for easy money than B and C trades and have to worry about my positions.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #862
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:49pm Feb 28, 2008 5:49pm
You see that yen news pushin price around? I'm so glad I don't worry about little plays lol
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #863
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:51pm Feb 28, 2008 5:51pm
you are absolutely right mate. anyways thanks a lot for your insight, i really enjoyed it. i will be stepping here time to time. regards [quote=mike w;1876045]
Quoting kenneith
Excellent. any thoughts about gj's twin brother, i mean gbp/chf? there is a huge divergence (bullish) that too on daily and the pair still is falling like a rock.


Honestly, I know nothing about divergence plays and I'm not very familiar with the pair either. On my daily charts, 211 looks like it could be a possibility, although a slim one. Weekly charts are crushed on down, so we should see a retracement before heading lower which could make that play out, otherwise, I wouldn't take a position on it. It's just too risky at the moment, and I'd rather take A trades for easy money than B and C trades and have to worry about my positions.
  • #864
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:53pm Feb 28, 2008 5:53pm
what up bud... what i see right now is a weak dollar..... meaning... the gu is going up the uj is going down and the net is gj down some but not the big fall.....


tricky to trade.....

i see gj at 207.8 then we will see from there..... 214.x and 217 area still maybe in the cards IMO as it will need to power up a bit for the real fall.... but i think a bit lower first just what i see.... gu retracing a bit down b4 going up higher IMO as usd bleeds and weakens slowly

i'll post charts later on aus thread


good stuff mike ! keep teaching us!
  • #865
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:23am Feb 29, 2008 6:23am
Quoting dagoods
what up bud... what i see right now is a weak dollar..... meaning... the gu is going up the uj is going down and the net is gj down some but not the big fall.....


tricky to trade.....

i see gj at 207.8 then we will see from there..... 214.x and 217 area still maybe in the cards IMO as it will need to power up a bit for the real fall.... but i think a bit lower first just what i see.... gu retracing a bit down b4 going up higher IMO as usd bleeds and weakens slowly

i'll post charts later on aus thread


good stuff mike ! keep teaching us!
I can't see anything keeping this pair from going back down to 204.53. Just my humble 2 pips.
  • #866
  • Feb 29, 2008 11:14am Feb 29, 2008 11:14am
Quoting dagoods
what up bud... what i see right now is a weak dollar..... meaning... the gu is going up the uj is going down and the net is gj down some but not the big fall.....


tricky to trade.....

i see gj at 207.8 then we will see from there..... 214.x and 217 area still maybe in the cards IMO as it will need to power up a bit for the real fall.... but i think a bit lower first just what i see.... gu retracing a bit down b4 going up higher IMO as usd bleeds and weakens slowly

i'll post charts later on aus thread


good stuff mike ! keep teaching us!
Good call on that one man! I'm still looking to see another test of the higher price throughout the next week. Here is primetime "real estate" at the 207 area IMO.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #867
  • Feb 29, 2008 11:15am Feb 29, 2008 11:15am
Quoting KissFan
I can't see anything keeping this pair from going back down to 204.53. Just my humble 2 pips.
If it does though, I really don't see it breaking that support down just yet. If that gets broken, then I am definitely out of this position and looking to go short for the long haul. Throughout next week, I look to see another gain in price however.

If it gets to that area, I would tack on another buy for a small risk, huge reward ratio.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #868
  • Feb 29, 2008 11:28am Feb 29, 2008 11:28am
agree with you mike but i think this puppy is going to tank big time very soon. by the way how is it going mate? that nzd/us is playing very well, dont know how long?
Quoting mike w
If it does though, I really don't see it breaking that support down just yet. If that gets broken, then I am definitely out of this position and looking to go short for the long haul. Throughout next week, I look to see another gain in price however.
  • #869
  • Feb 29, 2008 11:33am Feb 29, 2008 11:33am
Quoting kenneith
agree with you mike but i think this puppy is going to tank big time very soon. by the way how is it going mate? that nzd/us is playing very well, dont know how long?
I do too, but I don't think we have the firepower to do it just yet. We've been in this consolidation for a while and that just means buyers and sellers are scrambling around. Now that we are towards the bottom of it, I look to see a test towards the top again. If we break out to the topside, THEN I look for it to tank down, and I mean far too. If not, then I am just going to wait for a break of the weekly inside bars around 204 to short it to the bottom of hell.

The Nzd/Usd is definitely playing out as bearish for next week. Nice call on that one man! I am probably going to short it once I look further into it over the weekend.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #870
  • Feb 29, 2008 11:16pm Feb 29, 2008 11:16pm
BTW, Roger and DG, thanks for the input guys! I appreciate it. I'm looking at your target Roger, and I could easily see that happening towards the beginning of the week before that support either holds or breaks down. I'm ready to play either way in any case. Yet again, thanks guys!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #871
  • Edited 2:12pm Mar 1, 2008 1:00pm | Edited 2:12pm
Hey Mike
My cable trades are going very well. Obviously since it’s the end of the month I have been watching this chart and been anticipating a hammer and go figure it’s another Pin. I have every intention to start buying around the 9700 area on Monday as I see a pullback before the rise.
BTW I was pleased to see that Jan pin confirmed by the break of Jan high
I would just like to take this opportunity to thank you and Dagoods for showing me the light in December you guys have really blown me away!

Happy Trading
Still very much on my learning journey

Tone

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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #872
  • Mar 1, 2008 4:51pm Mar 1, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting mike w
This looks to be a solid trade opportunity on the weekly; the cad/jpy closed this week as the confirmation bar to a pin bar from last week. I would look to see the prior lows at first, then a possible break below.
Hmmm.....
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #873
  • Mar 1, 2008 10:04pm Mar 1, 2008 10:04pm
Quoting mike w
BTW, Roger and DG, thanks for the input guys! I appreciate it. I'm looking at your target Roger, and I could easily see that happening towards the beginning of the week before that support either holds or breaks down. I'm ready to play either way in any case. Yet again, thanks guys!

hi mike..... obviously we were expecting the trendline at 207.6 to hold and give a bounce.... then the supports in 206 207 areas.... but considering the market and the weekly h and s we coud jjust keep freefalling..... hard to say at this point.... but i am not going to try longs..... falling knife and whatnot ya know....


closed my shorts way too early at 207.8 bummer..... so that leaves me on the sidelines.... oh well..... i think we can expect further downside until this thing finds some buyers maybe somewhere between 203 and 205 and then we will see... i think 214 217 targets are probably history..... 209 210 maybe the tops for possible retrace and proabaly down more first..... cant see BOJ letting uj go below 103 102 and definitely not lower than 100 .... that would be too painful for japanese economy right now...... so although gj goes to 190 and lower on the charts ... how it gets there and when?... who knows.... gonna sit tight for a few days i think then see...... if the carry falls apart maybe boj steps in then we go up a bit for a bigger fall???? who knows.... tricky bastrd that gj@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #874
  • Mar 1, 2008 10:06pm Mar 1, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting KissFan
I can't see anything keeping this pair from going back down to 204.53. Just my humble 2 pips.

  • #875
  • Mar 2, 2008 6:54pm Mar 2, 2008 6:54pm
Quoting dagoods
Put enough commentary out there, you'll likely be right once in a while. Seriously though, I'm studying fibs and I NEVER delete a trend line that I have drawn. When I made this observation all I could see was open highway down. I have no idea what the fundies are concerning this pair. What could have changed over a saturday? Next target down is what 202.75?
  • #876
  • Mar 3, 2008 9:25am Mar 3, 2008 9:25am
Ok, it's monday and I'm going to start looking at the weeklies throughout the day today.

Oh yeah, pin bar comin up on daily g/j? just maybe I'm thinking we will see a retest of the trendline before breaking down for the long haul.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #877
  • Mar 3, 2008 11:16am Mar 3, 2008 11:16am
I've gone ahead and added a small position to g/j and now I'll just wait for the daily confirmation of an upwards movement.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #878
  • Mar 3, 2008 11:18am Mar 3, 2008 11:18am
Quoting KissFan
Put enough commentary out there, you'll likely be right once in a while. Seriously though, I'm studying fibs and I NEVER delete a trend line that I have drawn. When I made this observation all I could see was open highway down. I have no idea what the fundies are concerning this pair. What could have changed over a saturday? Next target down is what 202.75?
Look back on the charts, and you'll see that huge amount of support at 204. I doubt we're going to see it before we head back up away from it. Just make sure you have your profit locked in if you already haven't. Good job on your analysis too, it's good stuff man!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #879
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:12pm Mar 3, 2008 4:12pm
OK, there is a lot of opportunity for the day here. Right now, I am looking at usd/chf with a daily pin in the middle of no man's land. Plan on trading it with a confirmation bar for tomorrow. We definitely need a retracement for this pair as well, which only adds to my expectation of an upmove.

The eur/jpy is looking bullish and a possible target would be 159 for it.

The gbp/jpy is looking bullish now and targets will be scattered for it, depending on how price reacts at 208.50.

Usd/jpy is wayyyy overdue for a retracement and possible targets would be at 106 for it.

I'm still looking right now and will post more later.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #880
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:17pm Mar 3, 2008 4:17pm
The eur/chf is sitting pretty with a bullish bar for about 100 pips at least, as well as the aud/jpy. Nzd/jpy will be good for about 100 pips at least as well.

Wow, look at the gbp/chf too. Everything is beautiful on these charts right now. I'm going to get a margin call just by trying to trade all of these LOL

Have a great night everybody, I know I will.
I dream, therefore I become.
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