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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #5,741
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:38am Feb 29, 2008 4:38am
Quoting Ash
I know what you mean but considering the seriousness of the $ index, it has changed my mind. I thought that 75 was the ultimate support and that the US Treasury would do almost anything in it's power to support it in conjunction with the fed. Looking at the Trend that started in late 2001, it has been an ongoing journey down wards.

No, the ? that arises as to why? There are many that come to my mind and seem logical. After 9/11, there was a backlash against individuals of Islamic faith / countries. I know, because I worked for the government. They made it harder for legitimate students who came to the US to study. These students had to wait up to a year to get their visa's, once they did, they had to go special registrations upon entry into the US. Legitimate Businessman had to wait countless hours at airports to get documented and fingerprinted. If an individual was traveling with his family, his family also had to bear the hardship of waiting at airports. These individuals also had to inform and register once more when they left the country. Now, it was not only individuals from Islamic countries but also from N. Korea, Cuba, etc.

Now, would anyone in their right mind would want to go through hassle of coming to the US to study when there are other institutions in Europe that offer the same education of equal or better standards? Would any businessman want to have to wait 1-13 hours at an airport to get registered when he or she could conduct business via video conferencing / telephone? Or better yet, find some other buyer or supplier in Europe?

Let us not forget the Dubai World Port deal that happened to go down the drain because of a phobia that had no foundation. That was a multi-billion dollar deal.

Now if I were an investor, looking at the climate in the US, would I want to invest my money in the US? The answer would unfortunately be no.

So, we may see bouts of $ bullishness, here and there, but in the long run, I am bearish.

FYI: Iran is already accepting payments for oil in the Yen (from Japan). All we need is Mr. Chavez to announce that he will start accepting payment in Euros. I wouldn't be surprised if the Arab oil producers are or have been quietly converting their $$$'s into Euros.
Did you write this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/ma...=1&oref=slogin


Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,742
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:45am Feb 29, 2008 4:45am
It is very nice to have this kind of "traders talk" from time to time.

And yes, you are complete right in what you say... and I agree... but I guess that the USA though all the things u point out, they still offer somethings that others economies cannot.

Of course "these" special things USA economy offers are going to be over in the very close future if they do not do something to rebuild the leadership role they MUST accept they have... ppl eventually will turn their eyes to China, Japan, European Union... Russia... and even UK! (though they tended to be inconditionally supporting the USA... thing that will might change soon... UK goverment is not stupid...)

And yeah.. .u r right.. my ultimate dream is to move to Europe and live there... I would love to try the UAE... but yes... USA is tha last place i would go to invest my money... I dont want to be discriminated by those authorities just because i am mexican.

At least i think that in other countries if u go there with ur bucks to invest they gladly say "hello!"... in USA even the migration ppl in the airports are despotic, bad-mannered and rude! (not ALL of them... but sadly the most part yes..)

BTW... what is all this OANDA thing that i see u ppl are talking about?

iiivb

Quoting Ash
I know what you mean but considering the seriousness of the $ index, it has changed my mind. I thought that 75 was the ultimate support and that the US Treasury would do almost anything in it's power to support it in conjunction with the fed. Looking at the Trend that started in late 2001, it has been an ongoing journey down wards.

No, the ? that arises as to why? There are many that come to my mind and seem logical. After 9/11, there was a backlash against individuals of Islamic faith / countries. I know, because I worked for the government. They made it harder for legitimate students who came to the US to study. These students had to wait up to a year to get their visa's, once they did, they had to go special registrations upon entry into the US. Legitimate Businessman had to wait countless hours at airports to get documented and fingerprinted. If an individual was traveling with his family, his family also had to bear the hardship of waiting at airports. These individuals also had to inform and register once more when they left the country. Now, it was not only individuals from Islamic countries but also from N. Korea, Cuba, etc.

Now, would anyone in their right mind would want to go through hassle of coming to the US to study when there are other institutions in Europe that offer the same education of equal or better standards? Would any businessman want to have to wait 1-13 hours at an airport to get registered when he or she could conduct business via video conferencing / telephone? Or better yet, find some other buyer or supplier in Europe?

Let us not forget the Dubai World Port deal that happened to go down the drain because of a phobia that had no foundation. That was a multi-billion dollar deal.

Now if I were an investor, looking at the climate in the US, would I want to invest my money in the US? The answer would unfortunately be no.

So, we may see bouts of $ bullishness, here and there, but in the long run, I am bearish.

FYI: Iran is already accepting payments for oil in the Yen (from Japan). All we need is Mr. Chavez to announce that he will start accepting payment in Euros. I wouldn't be surprised if the Arab oil producers are or have been quietly converting their $$$'s into Euros.
  • #5,743
  • Edited 5:03am Feb 29, 2008 4:48am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting DutchTrader
Did you write this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/ma...=1&oref=slogin


No, I didn't even know about it. lol

Sometimes I think about writing articles and sending it off to the "Wall Street Journal, "The New York Times". "FT.Com", "Economist", etc...but can't find myself finding the time.

I was only expressing what I have seen. We may have those who may disagree with me but I say "I was on the front line, I saw it happening with my own two eyes".
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,744
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:31am Feb 29, 2008 5:31am
Happy Give it Back Friday How much are you going to give back today?

What a great week, best in months.
Just Trade It
  • #5,745
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:37am Feb 29, 2008 5:37am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Happy Give it Back Friday How much are you going to give back today?

What a great week, best in months.
Yep. I'm a scrooge, I give back nothing.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,746
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:41am Feb 29, 2008 5:41am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Happy Give it Back Friday How much are you going to give back today?

What a great week, best in months.
None. I can not give back knowing that someone else is going to be partying with hard earned pips.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,747
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:43am Feb 29, 2008 5:43am
Quoting Ash
None. I can not give back knowing that someone else is going to be partying with hard earned pips.
I have a fitting tonight, got a formal event with my girl. Of course right on cue, I saw she sent me an email with a pair of shoes she likes

BTW I think we have a bottom in AJ for now till NY comes online.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,748
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:48am Feb 29, 2008 5:48am
Quoting DutchTrader
I have a fitting tonight, got a formal event with my girl. Of course right on cue, I saw she sent me an email with a pair of shoes she likes

BTW I think we have a bottom in AJ for now till NY comes online.
I just have a small Short in AU for the moment. Expecting the markets to go down and AU along with it.

Word of advice: Don't tell your woman that you have an "internet ATM" (A.K.A. Forex cash machine).
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,749
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:50am Feb 29, 2008 5:50am
Peloton Blames Wall Street Lending Crackdown for Fund Collapse

By Pierre Paulden and Caroline Salas
Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) --

Peloton Partners LLP, the London- based hedge fund manager being forced to liquidate a $1.8 billion asset-backed fund, said it's a victim of Wall Street's reduced lending.

``Credit providers have been severely tightening terms without regard to the creditworthiness or track record of individual firms, which has compounded our difficulties and made it impossible to meet margin calls,'' Peloton co-founders Ron Beller and Geoff Grant said in a letter yesterday to clients.

Peloton joins Thornburg Mortgage Inc. and Sailfish Capital Partners LLC on the growing list of funds and companies that have had to sell securities or shut down after banks restricted how much they could borrow, or demanded more collateral as values of securities backed by mortgages slumped. The world's biggest financial institutions are cutting off lines of credit to hedge funds after at least $163 billion of asset writedowns and market losses.

``More hedge funds will blow up this year than ever before,'' said Michael Hennessy, who helps oversee $10 billion of hedge fund investments at Morgan Creek Capital Management in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. ``Financing is much harder to get. The bubble has burst.''

UBS AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG were among the firms that lent money to Peloton, said people with knowledge of the matter, who declined to be identified. Officials at the banks declined to comment.

Freeze on Redemptions
Peloton said yesterday in a separate letter to investors that it froze customer redemptions from its $1.6 billion Multi- Strategy Fund, which has a ``very large position'' in the ABS fund.

Beller and Grant, who founded their firm in 2005, are seeking buyers for mortgage securities held by the ABS fund. The fund provided clients with an 87 percent return last year after the managers bet on a surge in delinquencies on loans to homeowners in the riskiest subprime category. Beller said in a Jan. 25 telephone interview that the firm bought securities backed by mortgages that are safer than subprime.

The price of top-rated Alt-A securities, which rank above subprime, dropped 10 percent to 15 percent this month, according to Thornburg Mortgage, the Sante Fe, New Mexico-based finance company which yesterday said it may sell securities to meet a margin call.

``Risk managers everywhere are revisiting how collateral is being priced so you're seeing margin calls,'' said Kenneth Hackel, managing director of fixed-income strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``As risk appetites decline, the price of assets that are used as collateral decline.''

Sailfish Fund
Beller, 45, led Goldman's fixed-income currency and commodity sales group in London before leaving in 2001 to reorganize New York City's school system. Grant, 47, was co-head of New York-based Goldman's so-called macro proprietary trading group. Grant, who works in Santa Barbara, California, declined to comment.

Sailfish's Multi-Strat Fixed Income fund, which had $1.9 billion in July, collapsed as credit bets went sour and the Stamford, Connecticut-based firm unwound positions into a declining market.

The average price of an actively traded high-yield, high- risk loan tumbled this month to a record low of 86.28 cents on the dollar from 100 cents last July.

Margin Calls
The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to own high- yield, high-risk, or junk, bonds instead of Treasuries widened to 718 basis points from 592 basis points in December, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Junk debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service and less than BBB- by Standard & Poor's.

An increase in margin calls may drive prices even lower, RBS's Hackel said.
``I feel like so many shoes have already dropped, the shoe store should be empty by now,'' he said. ``I'd like to think we're pretty close to the end of the game, but I can't say that with any degree of confidence.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Pierre Paulden in New York at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color] ; Caroline Salas in New York at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]
Last Updated: February 29, 2008 03:03 EST
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,750
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:51am Feb 29, 2008 5:51am
Quoting Ash
I just have a small Short in AU for the moment. Expecting the markets to go down and AU along with it.

Word of advice: Don't tell your woman that you have an "internet ATM" (A.K.A. Forex cash machine).
Ash,

Too late, she already knows. I had to explain to her why I'd jump out of bed at 4am and stare at my screen for hours. She thought it was porn, well it is, cash porn

My mentor once told me, some 15 yrs ago "DT, sometimes, hell many times, making money is as good as having sex". He was sort of right
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,751
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:53am Feb 29, 2008 5:53am
Quoting DutchTrader
Ash,

Too late, she already knows. I had to explain to her why I'd jump out of bed at 4am and stare at my screen for hours. She thought it was porn, well it is, cash porn

My mentor once told me, some 15 yrs ago "DT, sometimes, hell many times, making money is as good as having sex". He was sort of right
Shiiiiiiiiiiiit, you got the money, you got the sex. No money No Honey.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,752
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:56am Feb 29, 2008 5:56am
i was rouge trader these 2 days...5 hours of sleep in 2 days....if i would work in some bank i would outperform the Jeromy...,
its just money
  • #5,753
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:56am Feb 29, 2008 5:56am
Quoting Ash
Shiiiiiiiiiiiit, you got the money, you got the sex. No money No Honey.
Like a noted songstress said "Don't want no scrubs"

Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,754
  • Feb 29, 2008 5:59am Feb 29, 2008 5:59am
Quoting DutchTrader
Like a noted songstress said "Don't want no scrubs"


Women want that money.
Or course men want money even more....for more women
Just Trade It
  • #5,755
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:01am Feb 29, 2008 6:01am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Women want that money.
Or course men want money even more....for more women
Like Pringles, can't eat just one
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,756
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:01am Feb 29, 2008 6:01am
Quoting de123
i was rouge trader these 2 days...5 hours of sleep in 2 days....if i would work in some bank i would outperform the Jeromy...,

Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,757
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:02am Feb 29, 2008 6:02am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Women want that money.
Or course men want money even more....for more women
Spreading the wealth.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,758
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:35am Feb 29, 2008 6:35am
Anyone anticipating another one of those -100 +50 Dow Jones?

Is there enough fear in the air for that ugly a day? Didn't see that much of volume yesterday to believe its going to be as bad as future suggests.

Moving my stops to profit area just in case my feeling is worth anything (usually is just a way for me to lose money).
  • #5,759
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:47am Feb 29, 2008 6:47am
Screw this I'm going snowboarding, leaving in a few hours. FRESH SNOW!!!!!!
Plus the heater in our chalet is fixed. YES!
Just Trade It
  • #5,760
  • Feb 29, 2008 6:55am Feb 29, 2008 6:55am
UJ's target is 100 in the weekly, isn't it? Bearish flag triggered, there goes my bullish view through the window...

SHORT GJ SHORT

Whatahell, the big dogs set the direction, we hungry chihuahuas must follow suit and shut the f&*& up.

http://msnbcmedia2.msn.com/j/msnbc/C...2p.hmedium.jpg
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