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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,741
  • Jan 15, 2007 6:37pm Jan 15, 2007 6:37pm
imho, a retrace to low 9500s would be nice before we move up to 9700s.
might take 2 days, well we still got 4.5 trading days, so there's no hurry to rush up yet.
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #1,742
  • Jan 15, 2007 6:41pm Jan 15, 2007 6:41pm
Since most are speaking of bullish sterling and break of 1.97 level and the fact that cable moved up 400 pips from its low of around 1.9270 its time to start selling the cable imo.
  • #1,743
  • Jan 15, 2007 6:46pm Jan 15, 2007 6:46pm
i'd only rather decide if its a viable strategy to short after the news later. The current overall trend is still up. On a correction longterm big holders will look to buy cheap upwards. US data is forecasted as bearish. So all in all the price should have factored in all these forecast, if so we should only be looking to buy the dips. imo.
  • #1,744
  • Jan 15, 2007 6:51pm Jan 15, 2007 6:51pm
Quoting lexazver
Since most are speaking of bullish sterling and break of 1.97 level and the fact that cable moved up 400 pips from its low of around 1.9270 its time to start selling the cable imo.
As nice as that sounds, we are still making some progress upwards in this nice little jump of 417 pips so far, the fall was 586 pips.

That makes the 61.8% Fibo on that downward at 362 pips for a retracement, which should actually land us right at 1.9622 for the completed Fibo retracement.

This would be the price to watch, we are standing on this support or we are going to be waving good bye.

The question is folks, which direction are you going???
  • #1,745
  • Jan 15, 2007 6:58pm Jan 15, 2007 6:58pm
Do not take mho as a trade signal, i said what i said as my money is in the line and i am new to forex. It is a selfish opinion and might be detrimental to anyone who is on the sidelines with no positions yet. Staying out is best when there is no clear signal. Do not take a trade once your positions are closed and there is no clear direction.
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #1,746
  • Jan 15, 2007 7:04pm Jan 15, 2007 7:04pm
im aiming for 1.95 tomorrow
  • #1,747
  • Jan 15, 2007 7:23pm Jan 15, 2007 7:23pm
Dear Monarch,

Nice post. Thank you.

My simplistic rule of thumb was,
looking to the left of the 1 hour chart for the last month, anything above 1.9438 is within the prior profile bracket.
Then Set the fib from this bracket edge of 1.9438ish to the last top 1.9737ish ,
then do a mirco refit so that price now ( 1.9626) sits on the 61.2 fib.
best
j
  • #1,748
  • Jan 15, 2007 7:31pm Jan 15, 2007 7:31pm
Nice support at 38.3% from swing low after Friday news related surge to yesterday swing high. Also previous swing low from 15:00 GMT.

A
Attached Image
  • #1,749
  • Jan 15, 2007 7:37pm Jan 15, 2007 7:37pm
Quoting AlexFX
Nice support at 38.3% from swing low after Friday news related surge to yesterday swing high. Also previous swing low from 15:00 GMT.

A

Hey,

On M30 it a little clearer...

A
Attached Image
  • #1,750
  • Jan 15, 2007 7:44pm Jan 15, 2007 7:44pm
Looks like a short to me, technically, but I'll be waiting for a dip below 9610 ahead of the UK inflation numbers tonight, or I'll trade the reaction to CPI. I'm looking to short it right now, but everyone around here keeps telling me you can't predict the market, which is true. Right now, the market tells me to anticipate a short, and when the market tells me to execute that short, I will do so. I wouldn't go long right now because it looks like a low potential trade to me, especially when people are starting to exit these JPY carry trades in anticipation of a BOJ rate increase. We're going to get a glut of Western currencies on the market when that happens. Don't get me wrong, a lot of people will stick with it since it will probably be BOJ overnight rate of 0.5%, not too bad, but it will send enough away to increase supply.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,751
  • Jan 15, 2007 8:51pm Jan 15, 2007 8:51pm
I agree that a short play may be setting up BUT by looking at the past it appears that the cable tends to RISE into the London and/or Frankfurt session and the GBP has CPI numbers coming out in several hours, which may be good since recently GBP numbers have been strong. So IMO I'm thinking we'll see a rise up one final time before the expected fall.
If you can't produce some results and make some serious PIPS, YOU'RE FIRED!
  • #1,752
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:18pm Jan 15, 2007 10:18pm
Just a got a confirmed buy signal...
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,753
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:20pm Jan 15, 2007 10:20pm
I'm looking to short, but only if the market tells me to do so. I have ways of figuring that out. Don't we all.

If it goes long I will not trade. Overall, we're short on this, and I'll let you mugs make the trades while I wait for the next short. I'm looking for 200 pips, not 15...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,754
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:22pm Jan 15, 2007 10:22pm
Let's just see what the inflation numbers are, but I bet they were leaked, like all Econ numbers are, so you can use your techs to figure out direction about a half hour ahead of the move...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,755
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:36pm Jan 15, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting dukeofdents
I'm looking to short, but only if the market tells me to do so. I have ways of figuring that out. Don't we all.

If it goes long I will not trade. Overall, we're short on this, and I'll let you mugs make the trades while I wait for the next short. I'm looking for 200 pips, not 15...
I have a feeling it will short too, but not yet... at least thats what my system says.
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,756
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:36pm Jan 15, 2007 10:36pm
I don't try to predict the market. All I can see, there is 50-50 chance now. Cable doesn't wanna break the daily channel since it plays above it. But the price is still below the 23.6 fibo
  • #1,757
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:42pm Jan 15, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting goodthings
Finally on the 15 minute chart we see the the 50 fib level of the days high and low at 9616 is an area of support. If the support holds through the Asian session and is broken when the London session opens it could be a short for the day. Obviously there is a lot that can happen from now until then.


your fibo is drawn upside down. If the trend is up, the the 100% should be at the top, not bottom

100
618
50
38.2
23.3
0
  • #1,758
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:47pm Jan 15, 2007 10:47pm
Quoting monarch
Okay, the market is pretty slow, well almost dead, and I had a few minutes to do some twiddling of my mind (fingers).

This is some fun stuff you might like.

Follow along, hope not to lose you. I posted a chart so you can see also.

1 Hour Chart

The Beginning point is 1.9315

Take 1.9315 and subtract it from the 1.9408 line = 93 pips
93 times .618% = 57 pips - 1.9408 61.8% drawdown is 1.9351
This completes our downward movement, we are now setting up for upwards movement now in progress.

1.9408 is the Bottom of our Fibo Setup.

I placed lines at each High.

The next High from 1.9408 is 1.9535 - Subtract these = 127 pip movement.

127 times .618% is 78 pips add this to 1.9535 = 1.9613

1.9613 is the new high
(candle closed at 1.9606 - 61.8% Fibo cleared )

127 times .50% = 64 pips + 1.9613 = 1.9677
(High at 1.9667 so far 10 pips below this mark)

127 times .382% = 49 pips + 1.9677 = 1.9726

If I calculated from the Line of Candle High the result would be:
1.9535 - 1.9606 - 1.9667 - 1.9716 for 38.2% mark.

Presto, there you have it.

We wait for 1.9677 for the 50% and 1.9716-26 for 38.2% levels.

Not for trade recommendation!
thank you your the best, peace
  • #1,759
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:51pm Jan 15, 2007 10:51pm
I'm not playing a game of chance, I'm looking for reasonable certainty. It's been working out well lately. Right now, we wait. We make no trades. 30 minutes before UK inflation comes out, I'll be looking to my own system for an indication of direction. These numbers are touted as being secret and held until release, but they're not. The big boys have buddies in the system, and the direction always rears its head before the release. If I worked at State Street Bank and my buddy I went to college with worked at the Fed, just hypothetically, we would talk. Look at historical data and you will see this consistently.

Wait to pull the trigger and trust your techs, they might be flat right now, but when releases come they will go apeshit. Watch them an hour before and an hour after...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,760
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:54pm Jan 15, 2007 10:54pm
Those who learn to combine the technical and the fundamental are the ones who experience success...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
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