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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,721
  • Jan 15, 2007 1:47pm Jan 15, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting khaled22
thats your believe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
we want to know why, don't what you are belive thanks
You welcome... hahhaaa, but it still 5.25 for gbp

i just try answer u r question.

Btw, who are "we" ?

to everyone i just kill my bored , see the market is quiet. dead sure zzzzzzzz.

no heart feeling.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #1,722
  • Jan 15, 2007 1:59pm Jan 15, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting monarch
In reference to the Fibo at 78.6% - I would go from the High at 1.9749 to the Low at 1.9260 and that would give you 1.9644 for your 78.6 Fibo.

If you referenced the move from 1.9846 down to 1.9260 - the 61.8% Fibo was 1.9622 and the 78.6% Fibo would be 1.9721 mark

Monarch, I concur. I have the shorter, 1.9749 to 1.9261 drawn on the 4 hour chart and we can see the price respecting this area at this time. I have the longer 1.9846 to 1.9261 drawn on the daily chart for possible future resistance at the higher 78.6% line of 1.9721 Because of the very jagged movement I give this longer Fib less credence than the shorter.

Friday's high of 1.9706 was the 23.6% line (1.9706) of a previous Daily Fib from 1.8834 to 1.9846. I have found that these previous Fibs sometimes provide "residual" support or resistance as was the case on Friday.

Thank you for all that you do on this forum.
  • #1,723
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:04pm Jan 15, 2007 2:04pm
Based on the indicators i used, i waited for the signal instead of trying to rush it, it indicates a sell starting this new hour... so i'm jumpin' in based on my trading system.

Good luck to all
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,724
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:30pm Jan 15, 2007 2:30pm
Dear Monarch,

I know that we are all on tenderhooks re pullback. A balancing view on fibs can come from Fozzy.

If one does a Fozzy Daily analysis, the rsi is still pointing up and no cross over wit the 8 sma is around , so I am leaving the 1.9476 trade open to float, come what may , to exit at 1.9696.

appreciate your comments muchly
best
j
aust
  • #1,725
  • Jan 15, 2007 3:07pm Jan 15, 2007 3:07pm
Quoting wpbsyn

Friday's high of 1.9706
Friday's high of 9607
  • #1,726
  • Jan 15, 2007 3:13pm Jan 15, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting ghitz
now blend the bars together and you get a HUGE spinning top. indecision. current weekly bar is inside bar that spinner.

it tells you where the larger range will be for the next 2 weeks.

g
Just noticed what you said. But I miss that: The larger range will be inside that spinner for the next 2 weeks or the larger range will be inside the spinner + last week open/close range?

Just to understand/learn about it, thanks.
  • #1,727
  • Jan 15, 2007 3:29pm Jan 15, 2007 3:29pm
Quoting jsh01
Dear Monarch,

I know that we are all on tenderhooks re pullback. A balancing view on fibs can come from Fozzy.

If one does a Fozzy Daily analysis, the rsi is still pointing up and no cross over wit the 8 sma is around , so I am leaving the 1.9476 trade open to float, come what may , to exit at 1.9696.

appreciate your comments muchly
best
j
aust
On the Hourly Chart,
I have been watching each move for a pullback, but since the move up from
1.9453 we have not seen one Fibo retrace back to a minimum of 38.2% mark.

Every time the price just keeps pushing a little higher, with just small moves down.

We have pushed against the bottom of our High at 1.9667 3 times or so, each time it just back up a little, the most so far it has come down is 37 pips.

This looks to me like it has the strength once again to push up higher, this time we should reach 1.9700 for a more competitive battle of resisitance.

I have exited my Short position, and now entered for a short term Long for the push upwards - I re-evaluate once we hit the 1.9700 area.
  • #1,728
  • Jan 15, 2007 3:38pm Jan 15, 2007 3:38pm
Quoting cesarnc
Just noticed what you said. But I miss that: The larger range will be inside that spinner for the next 2 weeks or the larger range will be inside the spinner + last week open/close range?

Just to understand/learn about it, thanks.
probably i didnt explain properly.

blending those 2 bars give you a 2 week bar (i know, sounds wierd, but for example, if you look at 30 min bars, if you blend them, you dont need to go to the 60 min bar!). what i am saying is that you will have a range defined by the 2 week spinner. high-low range, not open close. I would expect that breakout will take longer than 1 week. that is what i meant.

or also, look at last weeks bar. it is within the previous weeks range (yes i know, 2 pips lower low, but for practical purposes it is an inside bar) right now bias is up. one would think that at present bias is up, not down, however, it still needs to break the weekly outside bar to confirm a long. from that perspective, bias is down.

I can be very wrong though. hope it is clearer.

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,729
  • Jan 15, 2007 4:02pm Jan 15, 2007 4:02pm
Quoting ghitz
probably i didnt explain properly.
Got it, thanks.

Long story short - until breaking 9750, we cannot say the present week is bullish...

I don't think Asian session has the punch to force up to 9750 - even breaking 9700. I haven't seen Asian session make strong moves yet, larger than 80-100 pips, recently....
  • #1,730
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm Jan 15, 2007 4:06pm | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting cesarnc
Just noticed what you said. But I miss that: The larger range will be inside that spinner for the next 2 weeks or the larger range will be inside the spinner + last week open/close range?

Just to understand/learn about it, thanks.

probably chart explains better
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,731
  • Jan 15, 2007 4:47pm Jan 15, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting cesarnc
Got it, thanks.

Long story short - until breaking 9750, we cannot say the present week is bullish...

I don't think Asian session has the punch to force up to 9750 - even breaking 9700. I haven't seen Asian session make strong moves yet, larger than 80-100 pips, recently....
bingo
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,732
  • Jan 15, 2007 4:59pm Jan 15, 2007 4:59pm
9619 is a key level of support it is also the daily 50 fib.
Attached Image
  • #1,733
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:04pm Jan 15, 2007 5:04pm
Area of support on the 4 hr chart with a doulble bar low
Attached Image
  • #1,734
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:06pm Jan 15, 2007 5:06pm
Broader Picture of 4hr chart and supports
Attached Image
  • #1,735
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:10pm Jan 15, 2007 5:10pm
Finally on the 15 minute chart we see the the 50 fib level of the days high and low at 9616 is an area of support. If the support holds through the Asian session and is broken when the London session opens it could be a short for the day. Obviously there is a lot that can happen from now until then.
Attached Image
  • #1,736
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:23pm Jan 15, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting goodthings
Finally on the 15 minute chart we see the the 50 fib level of the days high and low at 9616 is an area of support. If the support holds through the Asian session and is broken when the London session opens it could be a short for the day. Obviously there is a lot that can happen from now until then.
I just hope the Asian session to take the price somewhere else out of this anoying 9650s... Or up to test resistance (fail & down or break &up) or down to test this support you mentioned...

By the way goodthing, the master of the statistics, I just gave a quick look backwards and it seems that Cable didn't hold choppy for more than 16 hours (4 4hr candles). If so, we may see some action soon...

Dear God, please, give us some action here, willya?
  • #1,737
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:44pm Jan 15, 2007 5:44pm
[GBP/USD] rallied from an earlier low of 1.9571 to an o/n high of 1.9669 after UK Input PPI for the month of Nov was revised up sharply from 2.8% to 3.5%. The revision shed light on one of the reasons behind the BOE surprise rate hike last thursday. The UK Sunday Times reported that given inflationary tendencies continue to persists within the UK economy and the relatively buoyant consumer demand, the BOE may ultimately increase interest rates to 6% by years end. Should this scenario pan out, a 2.000 handle in the pair is a foregone conclusion. Market will be focussing on today's Dec CPI report due at 9.30 GMT for confirmation of strong inflationary pressures in the economy.

Buying orders at 1.9610 by a UK Clearer will support while selling orders at 1.9690 by a Dutch name will limit upside gains this session.

Makes sense?
  • #1,738
  • Jan 15, 2007 5:47pm Jan 15, 2007 5:47pm
I really appreciate the charts and information you post on the thread, it is a welcomed addition to our analysis.
  • #1,739
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm Jan 15, 2007 6:17pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm
Okay, the market is pretty slow, well almost dead, and I had a few minutes to do some twiddling of my mind (fingers).

This is some fun stuff you might like.

Follow along, hope not to lose you. I posted a chart so you can see also.

1 Hour Chart

The Beginning point is 1.9315

Take 1.9315 and subtract it from the 1.9408 line = 93 pips
93 times .618% = 57 pips - 1.9408 61.8% drawdown is 1.9351
This completes our downward movement, we are now setting up for upwards movement now in progress.

1.9408 is the Bottom of our Fibo Setup.

I placed lines at each High.

The next High from 1.9408 is 1.9535 - Subtract these = 127 pip movement.

127 times .618% is 78 pips add this to 1.9535 = 1.9613

1.9613 is the new high
(candle closed at 1.9606 - 61.8% Fibo cleared )

127 times .50% = 64 pips + 1.9613 = 1.9677
(High at 1.9667 so far 10 pips below this mark)

127 times .382% = 49 pips + 1.9677 = 1.9726

If I calculated from the Line of Candle High the result would be:
1.9535 - 1.9606 - 1.9667 - 1.9716 for 38.2% mark.

Presto, there you have it.

We wait for 1.9677 for the 50% and 1.9716-26 for 38.2% levels.

Not for trade recommendation!
  • #1,740
  • Jan 15, 2007 6:31pm Jan 15, 2007 6:31pm
The forecasts seems bullish for the sterling. I see a possibility of prices will driven higher by these news. Any ideas?
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