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Diary of a Mad Surfer

  • #421
  • Feb 28, 2008 7:49am Feb 28, 2008 7:49am
Quoting MPP
Morning BWR
could you post your fib positions on GU, i've got a 4h pivot at 1.9807 of the last swing high, but the daily is stil using the range low of 1.9338 to high at 1.9958.

i'm looking at a bounce of the daily pivot 1.9648 and 4h 100ma to go long and have another go at the daily 200.
Here is the G.U 4hr. The yellow lines are the fib fans from a few charts ago. (post 412)
It may go back up to test the daily 200. beyond that and it's bye, bye dollar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 25 KB
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  • #422
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:44am Feb 28, 2008 9:44am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Here is the G.U 4hr. The yellow lines are the fib fans from a few charts ago. (post 412)
It may go back up to test the daily 200. beyond that and it's bye, bye dollar
i think it will be worth a TEB style trade, set a buy about 20pips above the 200
  • #423
  • Feb 28, 2008 11:32am Feb 28, 2008 11:32am
Quoting MPP
i think it will be worth a TEB style trade, set a buy about 20pips above the 200
we'll see what happens, but if price can establish itself on the up side of the 200 this could be the start of the up trend. looks like it's starting to weaken a little bit. E.U going crazy
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  • #424
  • Mar 3, 2008 3:57am Mar 3, 2008 3:57am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Nightmare start to the day - broadband down, just got back on line now and trying to catch up,
looks like GU is forming a triangle, so it wants to go up, but resistance is strong, lets see what the news will do to it

EU looks to be consolidating at this point, would be nice to see a drop to around 1.5050 8ma area for another long entry.

AJ looks liike it's going to test the weekly 100ma at 94.75, would be nice to get a long of that, missed the short entry last week, that said we are approaching the pivot so may take a small short on the break of that. still working on where to put the fib's i've used the last swing down on the daily chart 100.17 - 90.08?

so i'm lost and confused - way to much beer at the weekend, had some friend over that i hadn't seen for years, turned into a 10hrs beer fest, still hurts today.
  • #425
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:26am Mar 3, 2008 4:26am
Quoting MPP
Nightmare start to the day - broadband down, just got back on line now and trying to catch up,
looks like GU is forming a triangle, so it wants to go up, but resistance is strong, lets see what the news will do to it

EU looks to be consolidating at this point, would be nice to see a drop to around 1.5050 8ma area for another long entry.

AJ looks liike it's going to test the weekly 100ma at 94.75, would be nice to get a long of that, missed the short entry last week, that said we are approaching the pivot so may take a small short on the break of that. still working on where to put the fib's i've used the last swing down on the daily chart 100.17 - 90.08?

so i'm lost and confused - way to much beer at the weekend, had some friend over that i hadn't seen for years, turned into a 10hrs beer fest, still hurts today.
It's hangover monday. The markets are feeling it too as they question last weeks rally. The fibs on A.J are good. If you ever confused about where to put a fib just put one on last weeks candle until you get a clear high/low, plus it gives you the weekly pivot.
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  • #426
  • Mar 3, 2008 4:41am Mar 3, 2008 4:41am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
It's hangover monday. The markets are feeling it too as they question last weeks rally. The fibs on A.J are good. If you ever confused about where to put a fib just put one on last weeks candle until you get a clear high/low, plus it gives you the weekly pivot.
are you shorting when price open below the short fib (or long on the reverse), i still cant get my head around this fib stuff, i'm looking a Aj bouncing of the weekly 100, and the short fib is 75pips below that, i'd be more tempted to long of the 100 than short it, but last weeks fib would have put me short from 98.00 which would have made a good entry - what i think i'm looking at is most likely a pivot bounce and long again from the 94.75 area!

ok so gonna take a nap and see if my head is any better in 1h. just glad i got my broadband up and running again.
  • #427
  • Mar 3, 2008 5:22am Mar 3, 2008 5:22am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
AU, watching the TL, 4h charts has bounced of it nicely, will it be a simple 8 or 13 ma retracement before short, or was it a daily 13ma retracement as we have just bounced of it on the daily charts which should tak us long?
were also riing along the fib pivot at 9304

i know that Aj is most likely to continue down due to the Yen being called back for end of year and this will weigh on AU, but with the likely hood of the USA rates reducing and talks of Aud increasing there's, it's got to move up!
  • #428
  • Mar 3, 2008 5:58am Mar 3, 2008 5:58am
Quoting MPP
AU, watching the TL, 4h charts has bounced of it nicely, will it be a simple 8 or 13 ma retracement before short, or was it a daily 13ma retracement as we have just bounced of it on the daily charts which should tak us long?
were also riing along the fib pivot at 9304

i know that Aj is most likely to continue down due to the Yen being called back for end of year and this will weigh on AU, but with the likely hood of the USA rates reducing and talks of Aud increasing there's, it's got to move up!
It's a real mind phuk game right now isn't it? I'm out right now but looking to go long once we get some momentum, could be a rangy day. YAAAAWWWWNNNN.
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  • #429
  • Mar 3, 2008 6:31am Mar 3, 2008 6:31am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
It's a real mind phuk game right now isn't it? I'm out right now but looking to go long once we get some momentum, could be a rangy day. YAAAAWWWWNNNN.
i think the market is nervous, it wants to long but the prices are in some weird places, plus this is a big week for news.

add to that i'm out for 24hrs tomorrow, so you know your gonna make some pips then, simply because i'm not around. but for today it'll sit still.
  • #430
  • Mar 5, 2008 4:45am Mar 5, 2008 4:45am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Aj and AU which way

Aj made a nice retracement to the 4h 13ma and is biased short but AU has hit the 4h 100ma which could be good for a long, unfortunately it's also broken the 4h TL taking it short so it cold be looking at the daily pivot/100ma around 9000

so Aj moves short AU will follow

watching closely for the move, not sure if i would risk the AJ trade just yet as i have issues against the trend.
  • #431
  • Mar 7, 2008 4:36am Mar 7, 2008 4:36am
AJ daily, finding support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 29 KB
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  • #432
  • Mar 7, 2008 4:42am Mar 7, 2008 4:42am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
AJ daily, finding support

nice weekly bounce of the 100ma also, not sure i'd take the long yet though, will watch the 13x100 on the daily as i see more downside due to yen being called back for end of year reports. thats said fundi info is always an issue to me so i could have the whole thing wrong.

i'm still long on GU (1.9823) and EU (1.5300) and holding, will watch the news and see what happens.
  • #433
  • Mar 7, 2008 4:50am Mar 7, 2008 4:50am
Quoting MPP
nice weekly bounce of the 100ma also, not sure i'd take the long yet though, will watch the 13x100 on the daily as i see more downside due to yen being called back for end of year reports. thats said fundi info is always an issue to me so i could have the whole thing wrong.

i'm still long on GU (1.9823) and EU (1.5300) and holding, will watch the news and see what happens.
Loving those E.U and G.U longs Hitting all fib targets I may just take profit before the news and get back in after the dust settles, USCHF hit as low as 1.0183 which is regoddammdicuaslly cheap. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dollar rally. I am actually buying physical dollars at this price for when I travel back to the states.
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  • #434
  • Mar 7, 2008 4:55am Mar 7, 2008 4:55am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Loving those E.U and G.U longs Hitting all fib targets I may just take profit before the news and get back in after the dust settles, USCHF hit as low as 1.0183 which is regoddammdicuaslly cheap. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dollar rally. I am actually buying physical dollars at this price for when I travel back to the states.
thought about that, but decided to give room on SL and just add to my positions, there may not be a good drop to get back in was my thinking process, but if it turns, i'm out.

i suffered to much trading to many pairs last month, so won't be adding any UChf positions, this month is GU and EU month only for me, then add a new pair next month. you watch i'll change my mind later.LOL
  • #435
  • Mar 7, 2008 4:58am Mar 7, 2008 4:58am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
12:19 USD/CHF: Parity Eyed On Downside - US Employment Data Awaited London, March 7th. The Franc remained in demand into Friday with the overnight Dollar weakness keeping USD/CHF within striking distance of the 1.02-mark. However, the EUR/CHF bounce kept the downside in the Dollar pair looking immune until European dealers returned to sell the cross. The EUR pair found offers into the 1.5770"s to depress the price and USD/CHF was soon sold below 1.0200 as the cross probed session lows. 1.0185 has since been hit with EUR/CHF trading to a low of 1.5697.
Into the North American open and both pairs are currently looking to consolidate the morning moves with the latest US employment data awaited by US watchers. The 13:30 GMT release is expected to generate the directional bias for the US unit with +25K currently eyed as the consensus for the February data.
Below 1.0150 and the only significant support left on the downside looms at 1.00 - with parity plays now doing the rounds. With the SNB expected to leave rates on hold in Q1 and more Fed cuts being priced in a run towards the 1.00 area cannot be ruled out. Matthew.Foster-Smith@Thomson

C now i'm thinking about it.
  • #436
  • Mar 7, 2008 4:59am Mar 7, 2008 4:59am
Quoting MPP
thought about that, but decided to give room on SL and just add to my positions, there may not be a good drop to get back in was my thinking process, but if it turns, i'm out.

i suffered to much trading to many pairs last month, so won't be adding any UChf positions, this month is GU and EU month only for me, then add a new pair next month. you watch i'll change my mind later.LOL
I have only traded E.U , G.U and A.U this month as well.
It's been a good month
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  • #437
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:04am Mar 7, 2008 5:04am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I have only traded E.U , G.U and A.U this month as well.
It's been a good month
i've been watching AU and AJ, but my uncertainty in AJ stops me trading AU for the time being, once the yen heads out to play again, i'm on it, should go through the roof.
  • #438
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:19am Mar 7, 2008 5:19am
Quoting MPP
i've been watching AU and AJ, but my uncertainty in AJ stops me trading AU for the time being, once the yen heads out to play again, i'm on it, should go through the roof.
Yeah I lost a few on A.J so I stayed out on that pair. I stayed out of E.J as well. So far it has been dollar selling, count the pips, look for a nice Island for vacation
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  • #439
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:20am Mar 7, 2008 5:20am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
whats going on, maybe i will TP half my positions based on this pre NFP drive!!
  • #440
  • Mar 7, 2008 5:24am Mar 7, 2008 5:24am
Quoting MPP
whats going on, maybe i will TP half my positions based on this pre NFP drive!!
Time to put your chips on the table and see how the cards fall.
or you can fold.
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