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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #3,901
  • Feb 27, 2008 3:54pm Feb 27, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting galaxymom
You must learn where support and resistance are. For an exercise, take a chart, turn off auto scroll and go back 3 to 6 months, mark every place price reverses and try fibbing then and advancing with the F 12 key. That might help you.
Wow, talk about a helpful suggestion! It's simple explanations like these that are a little bit missing in this thread. I followed your advice and just made 10 successful trades in a row by walking my fibo across those places. Small trades, but a lot better than before. I'll just keep doing that and trying to improve. Thanks!
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  • #3,902
  • Feb 27, 2008 4:03pm Feb 27, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting pipsalot
Wow, talk about a helpful suggestion! It's simple explanations like these that are a little bit missing in this thread. I followed your advice and just made 10 successful trades in a row by walking my fibo across those places. Small trades, but a lot better than before. I'll just keep doing that and trying to improve. Thanks!
Wonderful!
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #3,903
  • Edited 6:34pm Feb 27, 2008 5:37pm | Edited 6:34pm
I received this in a pm earlier:

Quote
Hi Steve, I have been following your posts on the Skunny thread and am deeply appreciative of them. I appreciate all your help.

I have read Skunny's thread numerous times and have been fascinated by the weekly exercise he gave us. I have tried doing the same on the daily candles as that best suits my schedule since I have a fulltime job. I have still not been able to gain that edge using this exercise.

Basically, I am still not clear in what cases will the breach of the hi/lo of the daily candle not reach its extension and what happens after that (when it doesn't reach). I know it retraces to 50% in case it doesn't reach it's extension. I have been studying patterns on the lower and higher TF's to better understand the possibilities. Any insight you can provide on this would be much appreciated.

Thanks.
I decided to reply here rather than privately, so others can pick holes in what I am doing. I hope that by doing so, we can all benefit.

I thank this contributor for the kind comments. Let me stress that I am not anywhere close to the league of Islander, DXTrade et al, people whose contributions and expertise I regard with awe. That said, here is where I am right now.

I trade 1 hour charts for fib drawing.

My first Ahha moment came when I recognised the potential of fibbing a large swing as a 'master' fib. Within this master, I can draw 'slave' fibs to use for actual trades. The slave only becomes a valid fib after there is a retrace within it to the 61.8 or 38.2 - the DZ on the fibs I used in my earlier charts, taken from suggestions from Issy's thread. Until this retrace happens, a new high or low calls for a further dragging of the fib. This was my second Ahha moment.

The advantage to me of trading a slave fib within a master fib is that the master can be: a trend continuation; a trend retracement; a range for a non-trending pair. Which one it is does not matter, because I am waiting for a retrace from the hilo of the master fib to outline the slave, which will automatically generate a trade, eventually.

For example, imagine a strong upwards trend by a pair. Eventually, the price starts to fall, so I fib the strong upward movement and this becomes the master. The fall stops and the price rises again. I fib the fall and it becomes my tradable slave fib. Once this becomes valid, I will trade in the direction of the breakout of the high or low of the slave fib.

In a trending market, this trade will either be in the direction of the trend as a continuation, or against it in a reversal. In a ranging market, the trade will be heading towards the boundaries of the range.

I drop down to a 5m chart to time entry to the trade.

Originally, I waited for a breech (new candle starting outside the level) of buy\sell levels; sl at 0.5 ('Stop loss' on my charts), tp at Target 1 (1.328 and -0.328).

Following an exchange of pm's with DXTrade, I started entering trades at the AL levels on my slave fib - 0.237 & 0.764. 'AL' comes from Islander's thread and I assume it means 'Alert'. Doesn't really matter - I could have just as easily have labelled it, "Enter trade here", or some such.

The advantage is that a good trade is already in profit by the time it passes the old trade entry levels. I can set a BE +2 and leave the trade alone, happy in the knowledge that it cannot turn into a loss.

The disadvantage is that I can enter a trade prematurely and it can turn into a loss. This happened twice today and resulted in a net loss on the days trading. I have some understanding to develop further here to make my method safer.

Have a look at the attached chart. The yellow fib is the master and outlines a huge swing. The turquoise fib is the slave I hope to trade tomorrow. It has not yet retraced to the highlighted decision zone, and so is not yet valid. Further falls in the price will make me drag the lower level further down.

It seems to me that there are two major issues here:

  1. Fairly obvious: the master fib has to be drawn in the right place. Pride prevents me from describing the horrible, 110 pip costing mistake I made earlier today on the gu because I had the master in the wrong place. Granted, I am not certain it is correct now, but it sure as hell was horribly wrong earlier. This was a classic example of learning more from failure than success. Oops.
  2. Look with more than just a passing glance at the yellow master, and you will see that it is not yet a 'valid' fib. Two questions present themselves here: 1) does this matter, as it is outlining a major swing and not actually being traded; 2) if the master is invalid, can the slave ever be considered valid?

Remember guys 'n gals, the whole point of Skunny's thread is to help us develop our own trading method (as I understand it), so don't instantly adopt my method as a 'system' and expect success; it won't work for you unless you have arrived at it by a similar process to my own. I have described where I am right now in the hope that it might help others on their journey. I am no guru; gurunessnessnessness lies with others.

I hope all this helps someone even just a tiny bit. It has already helped me. I was feeling down about my failure earlier, but going back to the chart to find an example of a fail made me look at it again and see where the fibs should have been.

Good luck everyone.

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  • #3,904
  • Feb 27, 2008 7:06pm Feb 27, 2008 7:06pm
nice one ...
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To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,905
  • Feb 27, 2008 9:39pm Feb 27, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting pipsalot
Hi guys

This is my first post here on ff, although I've been a lurker for the past several months.

Maybe I'm just too stupid but I'm having real trouble implementing skunny's teachings here in practice. I'm just amazed how you all seem to be able to grasp what he's talking about. I've been fibbing my ass off on vhands but most of the ranges I fib just don't work. I just get one false break out after another. Has anyone here experienced something like this? And if so, how did you overcome it?
Hey Pips, I was in the same boat as you. It took me over a month to read every page and catch up. I understood some of the basics and was practicing vHands nightly. It wasn't until I started re-reading Skunny's posts again until I had my first AHA moment. The chart on post 1116 really helped open my eyes. I would suggest setting up a chart on your computer the same way he did (cable, 1H, Dec 6 to Jan 4) and fib the HI/LO that he points out. After that I've had a bunch of AHA moments and on my way to finding my own system. It's not about who's the first to the finish line, it's about staying and winning your own race.

Steve- I found the same things as you did, which reaffirms I'm on the right track, except I don't have the stomach to trade 5 min charts

Here's the chart Skunny posted http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1199497848
  • #3,906
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:09pm Feb 27, 2008 10:09pm
Hey guys,

Here is an eur trade from earlier today.. green fib being the master (notice it was from the latest large swing; well semi-large) and the blue fib being the slave. Got in when the blue signaled to enter, as it had hinted that way previously. Plan was to get in earlier but the smaller orange fib got me "confused" for a sec. I'm going to leave that green fib there for a sec as Skunny has said that if price dosen't go beyond t1 (and hits close to the pip) then fib may it is still good. Blue fib is still slave; am looking for long, but would like to see more retracement. Possible pinbar on hour though may be signaling further upside without it though...
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #3,907
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:47am Feb 28, 2008 12:47am
this shows better price may be attainable
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #3,908
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:20am Feb 28, 2008 8:20am
many thanks for reply Stevehopwood.

one more question.

in the exercise pruporse by Skunny using 15m should i draw the fibos using bars or swings? Because first he says that what works for weekly works for intraday, but after he says about swings.

sorry for my bad enlgish i only need to understand if i should using swings, bars or both.

thanks again.
  • #3,909
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:08am Feb 28, 2008 9:08am
Quoting giraia_br
many thanks for reply Stevehopwood.

one more question.

in the exercise pruporse by Skunny using 15m should i draw the fibos using bars or swings? Because first he says that what works for weekly works for intraday, but after he says about swings.

sorry for my bad enlgish i only need to understand if i should using swings, bars or both.

thanks again.
Hehe. I bet you anything you like that your English is better than my Portuguese.

To be honest, I don't remember the exercise - so much going on in my head, but it must have been fibbing swings. It is hard to see how fibbing 15m bars is going to offer much information.

  • #3,910
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:33am Feb 28, 2008 9:33am
Quoting SteveHopwood
Hehe. I bet you anything you like that your English is better than my Portuguese.

To be honest, I don't remember the exercise - so much going on in my head, but it must have been fibbing swings. It is hard to see how fibbing 15m bars is going to offer much information.

yeah, is what i was thinking, this confirmation helps. Thanks.

about the Portuguese, com um pouco de prática você melhora. :
  • #3,911
  • Feb 29, 2008 7:37am Feb 29, 2008 7:37am
Hey Skunny,

I don't know if you're still reading this thread (i'm currently at page 80 or so)
But i wanted to thank you for everything you've shared here.
I made my first trade on the E/G today and it worked out fine.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #3,912
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:31am Feb 29, 2008 9:31am
Hello All,

I am catching up to you guys, but I am only on Pg 75. I want to post a current Fib chart on NZD/JPY for review.

How do I post the chart picture? Do I need to convert to HTML??? Very ignorant operator...

Thanks Guys!
  • #3,913
  • Feb 29, 2008 9:40am Feb 29, 2008 9:40am
Quoting bigslice54
Hello All,

I am catching up to you guys, but I am only on Pg 75. I want to post a current Fib chart on NZD/JPY for review.

How do I post the chart picture? Do I need to convert to HTML??? Very ignorant operator...

Thanks Guys!
Go to "file, save as picuture, active file (as is)"
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #3,914
  • Feb 29, 2008 10:05am Feb 29, 2008 10:05am
Thanks for the help! Unfortunately, I do not have the option of saving "as is" or "active".

File, save as picture...***choices are: BMP, TIFF, PMG, GIF, JPEG. I warned you of the ignorance

We'll get there. If it helps, I'm using FXSOL GTS-Accucharts

Thanks again guys!! I love this thread. Skunny, this is a wonderful thing you are doing. I cant wait to learn more!
  • #3,915
  • Feb 29, 2008 10:15am Feb 29, 2008 10:15am
Quoting bigslice54
Thanks for the help! Unfortunately, I do not have the option of saving "as is" or "active".

File, save as picture...***choices are: BMP, TIFF, PMG, GIF, JPEG. I warned you of the ignorance

We'll get there. If it helps, I'm using FXSOL GTS-Accucharts

Thanks again guys!! I love this thread. Skunny, this is a wonderful thing you are doing. I cant wait to learn more!
Save it as a gif, then when posting, under additional options, manage attachments, find the gif and attach it..
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #3,916
  • Feb 29, 2008 10:55am Feb 29, 2008 10:55am
That worked, but unfortunately the size is too large! ARG! One more try???

Thanks Dunkan!
  • #3,917
  • Feb 29, 2008 12:39pm Feb 29, 2008 12:39pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigslice54 http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Thanks for the help! Unfortunately, I do not have the option of saving "as is" or "active".

File, save as picture...***choices are: BMP, TIFF, PMG, GIF, JPEG. I warned you of the ignorance

We'll get there. If it helps, I'm using FXSOL GTS-Accucharts

Thanks again guys!! I love this thread. Skunny, this is a wonderful thing you are doing. I cant wait to learn more!

Save it as a gif, then when posting, under additional options, manage attachments, find the gif and attach it..



****Thanks Dunkan! I tried this only to find that the file size was about 3-4 times too large. My advisor has left the thread. Can anyone else help??

Thanks & Happy Friday!
  • #3,918
  • Feb 29, 2008 4:50pm Feb 29, 2008 4:50pm
As Skunny said trading 100% is possible. And making mad mad mad money is

possible as well

Thanks Skunny for the fib tool thing

Cheers!
  • #3,919
  • Mar 2, 2008 11:55am Mar 2, 2008 11:55am
Quoting Skunny
I'm not showing exactly how to trade this, but maybe this will help you all see where this idea goes on an hourly basis.

If you look at the candles on the example.

1) trade to 138
2) enter 1 position
3) enter 1 position at 61.8 and 1 at 38.2 inner fib lines

This example looks easy but only because there was a new cycle starting on the swing I pulled. So don't think you can pull like I did here. You need to learn the flow before you pull a fib.

Remember when I said watch when REAL S/R is broken? "Pin Bar"?. Pin bars are cool things,(yippee) but you need to know where they happen or they're useless.


I gotta run!

could please somenone back to this post and confirm the entries? i readng the posts after it and got more confused.

Skunny said "first was a short then 2 longs."

was a short at point marked "2"? Why? Market had made a hihger low so problably i would expect a breakout...no?

then at 61,8 he closed the short and gone long and then another long at 38%?

coulde somenone please explain where and when he entered?

thanks in advance.
  • #3,920
  • Mar 2, 2008 5:17pm Mar 2, 2008 5:17pm
Quoting smjones
For Fear of Hyjacking Skunny's thread, I am taking that secret to my grave, as it is an inefficiency in the culinary market and I would not want to lose my edge.

bobblong, An interesting point.

i hope you still reading this thread.

id like to know what is your view about edge and ineffiency on markets. Because you have been shared some things. Should i deduct that you believe that this do not happen? That means, sharing a system will not make it invalid?

or only some kind of systems/methods lose its validity?


thanks in advance and sorry for my bad english.
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