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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,321
  • Feb 28, 2008 4:42am Feb 28, 2008 4:42am
I see nothing to trade at the moment on three pairs that I watch (E/U G/U U/J), the price is in consolidation and that causes the MACD turn, risky trading can go either way. Waiting for TC's on these pair. Once again want to show why people lose money on CT's. Let's wait for candles (emotions) to show us where the price will go.
Attached Image
  • #12,322
  • Edited 7:08am Feb 28, 2008 5:07am | Edited 7:08am
buy @ 1.9814, SL @ 1.9775(below 21EMA), BE 25, TP @ 1.9863
Reason: long down tail, bounce off 21EMA, possible TC signal(MACD does not confirm).

Edit1: set BE @ 1.9815

Edit2: exit TP @ 1.9863 +49 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.gif Size: 34 KB
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,323
  • Feb 28, 2008 5:12am Feb 28, 2008 5:12am
Quoting arodriguez
Feb 28, 02h30gmt

Finally, I took the CT on E/U based in doji formation and overbought conditions.

Entry point: 1.5115 at 00h00gmt
SL: 1.5150
TP: Open... I am traveling later today, so I will wait for next candle's close price to decide about it. monitoring 1h charts... and moving SL to BE if needed.

Sorry for delay posting... I was away

A.

Edit 1: Risky trade. I have moved to BE... going away. I will check tonight or tomorrow morning.
Early in Asia I was stopped at BE for only +1 pip. I know it was a risky trade, but I tried. 8ema giving support so far. Checking charts to review plans for tomorrow.

A.
  • #12,324
  • Edited 6:46am Feb 28, 2008 6:09am | Edited 6:46am
Here is how I follow price movement & price action.

Notice how each minor down swing respected the 62% fib. Up to this moment price is still in a downward movement. When it finally closes strongly above 1.9815 area of that last minor swing it will hint that the downward movement may be starting to lose steam and price can shift upward.

If you want to enter early without the 4H MACD signal it is much safer when the 1H swing is in up momentum. Or even filter the 4H MACD signal and only enter when favorable price movement is clearly visible.

So right now I am waiting for a minor up swing to go above the 1.9845 area (38% fib of the last 4H up move) and I will enter if the minor pullback respects the 62% with a perfect bounce.

If it doesn't do what I want I don't play. If a 1H bar closes strongly below 1.9765 area I will no longer be looking for longs and will wait for price to show what it intends to do.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h3.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #12,325
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:17am Feb 28, 2008 6:17am
Quoting aihua5
buy @ 1.9814, SL @ 1.9775(below 21EMA), BE 25, TP @ 1.9863
Reason: long down tail, bounce off 21EMA, possible TC signal(MACD does not confirm).
Just got back from futsal. Ah.. scored some goals, made me feel better
aihua5,
I don't see confirmation on both MACD and Price action yet, that way price could still go bearish. My suggestion is to set BE ASAP.
Good luck to you.
  • #12,326
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:29am Feb 28, 2008 6:29am
Quoting hijackxx
Just got back from futsal. Ah.. scored some goals, made me feel better
aihua5,
I don't see confirmation on both MACD and Price action yet, that way price could still go bearish. My suggestion is to set BE ASAP.
Good luck to you.
Thanks for your suggestion! Yes, there is no MACD confirmation. I saw the candle pattern long tail hammer. So I take it.
Ok, I will set the BE after 20 pips.
Thanks again.
Cheers
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,327
  • Edited 6:42am Feb 28, 2008 6:31am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting maxster
Here is how I follow price movement & price action.

Notice how each minor down swing respected the 62% fib. Up to this moment price is still in a downward movement. When it finally closes strongly above 1.9815 area of that last minor swing it will hint that the downward movement may be starting to lose steam and price can shift upward.

If you want to enter early without the 4H MACD signal it is much safer when the 1H swing is in up momentum. Or even filter the 4H MACD signal and only enter when favorable price movement is clearly visible.

So right now I am waiting for a minor up swing to go above the 1.9845 area (32% fib of the last 4H up move) and I will enter if the minor pullback respects the 62% with a perfect bounce.

If it doesn't do what I want I don't play.
maxster,
I will try to understand your Fibo methods and enter into the safer trade later.
Thanks for your comments.
I attached one 1H snapshot, do I understand your explanation?
Cheers
Aihua
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.gif Size: 33 KB
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,328
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:36am Feb 28, 2008 6:36am
Quoting maxster
Here is how I follow price movement & price action.

Notice how each minor down swing respected the 62% fib.

If you want to enter early without the 4H MACD signal it is much safer when the 1H swing is in up momentum. Or even filter the 4H MACD signal and only enter when favorable price movement is clearly visible.

So right now I am waiting for a minor up swing and I will enter if the minor pullback respects the 62% with a perfect bounce.

If it doesn't do what I want I don't play.

look like dance swing,, do u wanna share ur indicator ??
  • #12,329
  • Feb 28, 2008 6:40am Feb 28, 2008 6:40am
Quoting aihua5
Thanks for your suggestion! Yes, there is no MACD confirmation. I saw the candle pattern long tail hammer. So I take it.
Ok, I will set the BE after 20 pips.
Thanks again.
Cheers
Aihua
Agree with hijack but as I type the 1H candle is breaking the 62% of the last minor swing - still 20 mins to close but you may want to do what Phillip does - take 50% profit then leave stop a little further away - so you come out BE. Because 20 pips stop is not enough with cable.

The 38.2% fib when price closes above it tells me momentum is shifting to the upside - but I still look for the pullback entries or waiting for a smaller timeframe (minor swing) to get into Phillip's trending rhythm.

Cinema - I don't use any indicator it is just metatrader's fib tool.
  • #12,330
  • Feb 28, 2008 7:02am Feb 28, 2008 7:02am
Quoting maxster
Agree with hijack but as I type the 1H candle is breaking the 62% of the last minor swing - still 20 mins to close but you may want to do what Phillip does - take 50% profit then leave stop a little further away - so you come out BE. Because 20 pips stop is not enough with cable.

The 38.2% fib when price closes above it tells me momentum is shifting to the upside - but I still look for the pullback entries or waiting for a smaller timeframe (minor swing) to get into Phillip's trending rhythm.

Cinema - I don't use any indicator it is just metatrader's fib tool.
maxster,
I could not take partial profit because I only have minimum unit open position 0.1 lot.
After the account grow up to 1000$, I will try to use Phillip's profit taking and BE setting strategy.
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,331
  • Feb 28, 2008 7:03am Feb 28, 2008 7:03am
Quoting ira
I see nothing to trade at the moment on three pairs that I watch (E/U G/U U/J), the price is in consolidation and that causes the MACD turn, risky trading can go either way. Waiting for TC's on these pair. Once again want to show why people lose money on CT's. Let's wait for candles (emotions) to show us where the price will go.
Ditto ira...

1 hour stuck in a range here so that means the 4 hour is too.

GDP and Bernancke "on the way"...
Attached Image
  • #12,332
  • Feb 28, 2008 7:23am Feb 28, 2008 7:23am
Quoting Palmer
Ditto ira...

1 hour stuck in a range here so that means the 4 hour is too.

GDP and Bernancke "on the way"...

U mean, we can short EURUSD AT about 1.5117 ??
  • #12,333
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:17am Feb 28, 2008 8:17am
Quoting Cinema007
U mean, we can short EURUSD AT about 1.5117 ??

I'm thinking about waiting for a breakout to the upside, which the 1hr just did. May try to get in on a retrace back to the long side. Bernancke may cause some volatility though. He's talking about lowering rates so there may be a few pips to take above where we are right here.

Is it me or is the FF server slow???
  • #12,334
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:19am Feb 28, 2008 8:19am
After the news a TC is forming on GU.
My only worry is th tail on the top of the candle.
I'm waiting for candle close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-usd.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #12,335
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:23am Feb 28, 2008 8:23am
Quoting Palmer
I'm thinking about waiting for a breakout to the upside, which the 1hr just did. May try to get in on a retrace back to the long side. Bernancke may cause some volatility though. He's talking about lowering rates so there may be a few pips to take above where we are right here.

Is it me or is the FF server slow???
I got in early this morning on E/U but it was too early, the trend line had not broken and I actually mentioned it in my notes for the trade. Of course it failed -25 pips but then I got in early again second time around with the trend line breaking and it also happened to be morning star on the 1H off the 21 (or 8 on 4H). This has been closed now for 35 pips so at least I clawed back the 25 I lost earlier.

I dont like revenge trading but today for once it seemed I had simply got in too early the basic premise of my trade was not wrong the first time around just the timing was off.
  • #12,336
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:24am Feb 28, 2008 8:24am
It might be a server overload at the FF and the fact that my laptop broadband card is not much faster than dial-up....

long EU at 5122
  • #12,337
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:31am Feb 28, 2008 8:31am
Quoting maxster
Here is how I follow price movement & price action.


If it doesn't do what I want I don't play. If a 1H bar closes strongly below 1.9765 area I will no longer be looking for longs and will wait for price to show what it intends to do.
Hi Maxtrer,
I am following your posts and thank you but I still don't understand if your Fibs are just the regular Fibs or you've modified them.They look complicared to me.

Kind of you if explain a little bit more.

Regards
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #12,338
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:40am Feb 28, 2008 8:40am
To enter or not to enter?
(long on GU)
  • #12,339
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:55am Feb 28, 2008 8:55am
Quoting Palmer
I'm thinking about waiting for a breakout to the upside, which the 1hr just did. May try to get in on a retrace back to the long side. Bernancke may cause some volatility though. He's talking about lowering rates so there may be a few pips to take above where we are right here.
hi,Palmer, I think it's time to use bladerunner or Philip's 55EMA to do your long time eur/usd trade
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #12,340
  • Feb 28, 2008 8:56am Feb 28, 2008 8:56am
Quoting deforexit
To enter or not to enter?
(long on GU)
TC is forming in GU. May it can touch 200 SMA in daily chart
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