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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,301
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:02pm Feb 27, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Edit 1
Stopped out on BE
Philip do you still use ODL platform ?

I ask because your candles are different than mine.

Have a look

This is my chart:

http://i28.tinypic.com/jjph5x.jpg

and this is your chart:

http://i26.tinypic.com/vpfcbc.gif
4X is the biggest casino in the world...Open 24h Monday to Friday.
  • #12,302
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:52pm Feb 27, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
I have taken a CT on the eur/usd.

Ent 15037.7
S/L 15067

When u look at the chart the eur/ $ has made such a aggressive move, the angle of trend is far greater then 45 degree harmony. This is a pure CT based on the angle of the break up. There is a strong tail to confirm a pull back breather is on the card. the MACD is way over bought and making a round top above the +45 line.

I have a 30 pip stop in case we see another surge.

**NOTE on the chart i made a mistake 90 is ment to be 45 degree's**
Stopped out -30

That was my adventurous trade for the month! Palmer I see your on the trend that keeps on giving! Great stuff man, enjoy your profits!
  • #12,303
  • Feb 27, 2008 1:59pm Feb 27, 2008 1:59pm
I need some help as a new forex trader and wish to follow Phillips system, without reading all posts. Can anyone please guide me to the meat of the subject.
  • #12,304
  • Feb 27, 2008 2:05pm Feb 27, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting raktrader
I need some help as a new forex trader and wish to follow Phillips system, without reading all posts. Can anyone please guide me to the meat of the subject.
See page 1 of this thread. There is everything you need.
4X is the biggest casino in the world...Open 24h Monday to Friday.
  • #12,305
  • Feb 27, 2008 2:08pm Feb 27, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting OldDog
I want to add my congratulations to those of you making pips out of these large moves this week. So many of you are growing by leaps and bounds, and we're finding so many capable teachers, now, supporting this thread with their experiences. My special congrats to you, Ira, on reaching your goal for the month, but even more so for the discipline and insight you are showing in your posted trades. The same to you, Nadia. You and Ira have shown us all how hard work, strong discipline, and continued learning can pay off.

Palmer, absolutely wonderful! Onward to the stars, man, and the force be yours!

Phillip, I want to thank you for stressing, several times recently that we need to have a short term system. In this period of huge moves, I went back to a short term system that didn't work for me in the past, but, with what I've learned on this thread about price action, support and resistance, and the discipline of following one's rules, amazing! I've found that the short term system works very well! Given the times that I trade, I only get occasional four hour entries, but there is often an opportunity for a short term entry. My rules, during trending days like today, involve moving my stop up as soon as I see my first profit region passed. There is always a stop of no more than fifteen pips. On days like today, there is no profit target, simply a calculation of when I can move my stop up again.

On the EURJPY, today, I took fifteen pips the first trade and thirty-eight on the second one. I might have taken profit at a much higher level by not moving my stop up at each level of support, but having the discipline to follow my own rules gave me a feeling of strength. I will be able to refine my rules as I grow in experience with my short term method, but I will strive to keep following them no matter what. I have finally come to see how important that is. I thought I understood that a long time ago. I could advise others about it. It was so clear, but, somehow, I couldn't follow the advice that I would have given to others.

So, thank you, again, and I will keep learning on this thread from you and from the other fine people who post their trades, even though I will still not be posting many four hour trades myself. Trying to be awake for the best four hour times just doesn't work for me currently. The discipline and the understanding of market rhythm, which this thread imparts, apply to all systems. --Tony

Tony:

The one thing I picked up from short term trading is that the profit targets have to be smaller. But I agree in seeking a short term method to find entries within runs like this as long as you enter into the direction of the main trend.

The EU:

The 4hr candle just closed with a doji = bull/bear indecision. Could this be the pause in this run, at least back to the 8 that we've been waiting for? We'll see...
Attached Image
  • #12,306
  • Feb 27, 2008 2:13pm Feb 27, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting raktrader
I need some help as a new forex trader and wish to follow Phillips system, without reading all posts. Can anyone please guide me to the meat of the subject.

raktrader:

pipsy_2 just answered the question for you....Post #1 and the pdf. That's all there is to it, the method is the same from day one. It's all about patience and letting the signal develop. For some practice there is a full years worth of 4hr and 1hr charts for the EU that you can download from the website under the Tools link. Print these out and study how price reacts and moves with the moving averages. Read over the pdf a few times and refer to the printed charts and make notes all over them. Follow one currency at first, too many and you get lost.
  • #12,307
  • Feb 27, 2008 2:59pm Feb 27, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting ira
No loss for the month - really great job! I've been studying your post and learned a lot from them, thanks for sharing. I have a question if you don't mind . You said you watch closely the zone 38.2 and 61.8, 38.2 - is 8MA and 61.8 - is 21, close below 61.8 means no longs, if you are looking for long, right? But what if price bounces between 0 and 23.6, like we have now on G/U, will you take 4h TC straight, or wait for close above 0 Fib?
Sorry guys if it's out of topic, but it can really help to filter bad TC signals.
Currently GBP is bouncing on the 32% and 50% already. When price bounced from the 32% earlier - I followed price looking for a perfect bounce of that minor swing (red line swing). In this case it failed. I will only enter if the bounce is perfect - no tails - in james16 terms I look for DLHC(double low high close) or a pin bar but the pin must respect the minor 62%.

If you think about the logic about the minor swing I am simply doing the same thing as the larger blue fib swing. The reason I will only enter on a perfect bounce or no tails pass 62% on that minor swing is because in the smaller timeframe a tail on the 1H will usually mean a bar closed below that 62% level and thus violating the trending rhythm pullback to 21 on that smaller timeframe - I sometimes zoom into the 15min/30min for more clarity to see if that tail is really a tail and that a bar close did not violate the 62% level.

Right now price is bouncing from the 50% level and once it closes above 9845 I will follow it with another fib looking for a perfect bounce for entry - even for this minor swing I will enter only once price goes above the 32% minor swing fib level. Again the analysis is very very simple and is the same across the weekly, daily, 1H swings.

When I was going through all the charts my goal was not to filter the MACD so I don't have a direct answer for you as I mainly use the MACD as an alert when I am sleeping or away from the computer. But if you study price action with these corrective cycles in mind and a goal to better identify MACD weaknesses or filters I am sure you will find them.

However, one of the things I posted before was if you are unsure about the MACD signal just pull a fib across the last swing looking for a perfect bounce - it will filter 90% of bad signals. Much like how I am entering with the minor swing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #12,308
  • Edited 7:09pm Feb 27, 2008 6:30pm | Edited 7:09pm
Feb 28, 02h30gmt

Finally, I took the CT on E/U based in doji formation and overbought conditions.

Entry point: 1.5115 at 00h00gmt
SL: 1.5150
TP: Open... I am traveling later today, so I will wait for next candle's close price to decide about it. monitoring 1h charts... and moving SL to BE if needed.

Sorry for delay posting... I was away

A.

Edit 1: Risky trade. I have moved to BE... going away. I will check tonight or tomorrow morning.
  • #12,309
  • Feb 27, 2008 6:59pm Feb 27, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting OldDog
I want to add my congratulations to those of you making pips out of these large moves this week. So many of you are growing by leaps and bounds, and we're finding so many capable teachers, now, supporting this thread with their experiences. My special congrats to you, Ira, on reaching your goal for the month, but even more so for the discipline and insight you are showing in your posted trades. The same to you, Nadia. You and Ira have shown us all how hard work, strong discipline, and continued learning can pay off.

Palmer, absolutely wonderful! Onward to the stars, man, and the force be yours!

Phillip, I want to thank you for stressing, several times recently that we need to have a short term system. In this period of huge moves, I went back to a short term system that didn't work for me in the past, but, with what I've learned on this thread about price action, support and resistance, and the discipline of following one's rules, amazing! I've found that the short term system works very well! Given the times that I trade, I only get occasional four hour entries, but there is often an opportunity for a short term entry. My rules, during trending days like today, involve moving my stop up as soon as I see my first profit region passed. There is always a stop of no more than fifteen pips. On days like today, there is no profit target, simply a calculation of when I can move my stop up again.

On the EURJPY, today, I took fifteen pips the first trade and thirty-eight on the second one. I might have taken profit at a much higher level by not moving my stop up at each level of support, but having the discipline to follow my own rules gave me a feeling of strength. I will be able to refine my rules as I grow in experience with my short term method, but I will strive to keep following them no matter what. I have finally come to see how important that is. I thought I understood that a long time ago. I could advise others about it. It was so clear, but, somehow, I couldn't follow the advice that I would have given to others.

So, thank you, again, and I will keep learning on this thread from you and from the other fine people who post their trades, even though I will still not be posting many four hour trades myself. Trying to be awake for the best four hour times just doesn't work for me currently. The discipline and the understanding of market rhythm, which this thread imparts, apply to all systems. --Tony
Tony,

I also used one short term strategy(Supernova, 5 min, eurjpy and usdjpy) but I found that this strategy's SL was always bigger than 20-30 pips which I disliked.
Could you introduce your short term strategy(SL < 15) and give me some insight? Thanks.
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,310
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:06pm Feb 27, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting aihua5
Tony,

I also used one short term strategy(Supernova, 5 min, eurjpy and usdjpy) but I found that this strategy's SL was always bigger than 20-30 pips which I disliked.
Could you introduce your short term strategy(SL < 15) and give me some insight? Thanks.
Aihua
Hi Aihua

Sorry, bit of the topic but I don't know if you are aware that Phillip started with his 5min intra-day system on Jan 01, 2007 and it is still very much alive. Check it out at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11854

I did post My Rules for the system on page 156 with appendices after lengthy discussions wih Phillip. It is also based on price movements and lately we also included the TC formation on the MACD as additional filter (page 206).
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #12,311
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:25pm Feb 27, 2008 10:25pm
Quoting Golfer
Hi Aihua

Sorry, bit of the topic but I don't know if you are aware that Phillip started with his 5min intra-day system on Jan 01, 2007 and it is still very much alive. Check it out at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11854

I did post My Rules for the system on page 156 with appendices after lengthy discussions wih Phillip. It is also based on price movements and lately we also included the TC formation on the MACD as additional filter (page 206).
Golfer,
You are a kind man. I am interested it and will read it carefully.
Thanks for your info.
Cheers
Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,312
  • Feb 27, 2008 10:32pm Feb 27, 2008 10:32pm
Quoting saka
Oh, don't forget me! take me as well. Sorry for be lurker for a long time for I have a tough work these days and am still on the way of becktesting just as your advice. It's really worthy, and is good to leave live trade and observe it. I learn more from history and have more confidence to master this great system. Congratulate for Palmer's trade for I can present the seminar
Very, very good Saka ! At the beginning we all want to make pips but instead we lose them, what a pain! It causes us to make hundreds of mistakes, and blinds our vision. Working on demo, backtesting helps to build our confidence. It looks simple, but it's really the most important thing. If you know that at the end of the month you will be still positive, all you do is follow the rules. There will be no problems with pulling the trigger, and if your SL is hit it won't hurt you if you did everything right, you know SL is part of the game, but you will be the winner.
I know that all this has been said million times, but repetition is good.
  • #12,313
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:15pm Feb 27, 2008 11:15pm
Quoting maxster
Currently GBP is bouncing on the 32% and 50% already.
Thanks Maxster, I'll study this.
  • #12,314
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:27pm Feb 27, 2008 11:27pm
Quoting Golfer
Phillip started with his 5min intra-day system on Jan 01, 2007 and it is still very much alive. Check it out at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=11854
I was not aware of this. Always looking for good scalping strategies, many thanks.
  • #12,315
  • Feb 27, 2008 11:54pm Feb 27, 2008 11:54pm
Waiting for GDP and unemployment claims.
  • #12,316
  • Feb 28, 2008 12:29am Feb 28, 2008 12:29am
ok. TCs are coming in almost all pairs ,now should decide wich one is better.
  • #12,317
  • Edited 5:05am Feb 28, 2008 1:50am | Edited 5:05am
Anyone's looking at TC forming in G/U?

I also took a long E/U 1Hr early entry:

Long @ 1.5112
SL: 1.5077
TP:1.5137

E/U SL Hit!!

G/U candle closed bud MACD is red
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #12,318
  • Feb 28, 2008 2:05am Feb 28, 2008 2:05am
Quoting mike1349
Anyone's looking at TC forming in G/U?
I can see it is forming and we have to wait for more confirmation. Here's where patience come into play again. I'm going to play some futsal.
  • #12,319
  • Feb 28, 2008 2:28am Feb 28, 2008 2:28am
there is also a CT setting up on the EUR/GBP have half an hour till my new candle.
  • #12,320
  • Feb 28, 2008 2:31am Feb 28, 2008 2:31am
Quoting forexmoments
I was not aware of this. Always looking for good scalping strategies, many thanks.
Pleasure. His system also teaches you patience and discipline on a short term basis. You don't take every setup and you need to read the chart and price movement. Just like this 4h system - you don't take every TC setup. You need to look for the high probability TC setup.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
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