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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,681
  • Jan 15, 2007 7:57am Jan 15, 2007 7:57am
Quoting ghitz
stalled at 9670. lol
consolidation taking place.

wait till tomorrow.

g
Good call...

Do you think we'll see choppy market untill London opening?
By the way, consolidation on Jan 02 (approaching 974X) took SEVERAL hours and, indeed, the downward move took place on the day after (Jan 03 - big crunch)
  • #1,682
  • Jan 15, 2007 8:11am Jan 15, 2007 8:11am
Quoting cesarnc
Good call...

Do you think we'll see choppy market untill London opening?
By the way, consolidation on Jan 02 (approaching 974X) took SEVERAL hours and, indeed, the downward move took place on the day after (Jan 03 - big crunch)
thanks,

think it could even go to 9690 overnight. watch asian open.

until then
g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,683
  • Jan 15, 2007 8:19am Jan 15, 2007 8:19am
Some news I found. Hope it's useful to you guys...

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9473; (P) 1.9539; (R1) 1.9655; More
Cable edges higher to 1.9616 today but lacks decisive momentum to go further yet. Nevertheless, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as cable stays above 1.9531 minor support and further rally is expected to follow towards 1.9750 resistance. Below 1.9531 will turn intraday outlook consolidative. But pullback should be contained above 1.9452 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Below 1.9452 will indicate a short term top is formed and bring lengthier consolidation.
In the bigger picture, break of 1.9564 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.9750 to 1.9261 at 1.9563) suggest correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Break of 1.9750 will encourage further rise towards 1.9846 high and then next upside target of 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917.
On the downside, it will take a break below 1.9315 support to shift focus back to the downside for 1.9261 low and then 1.9177 cluster support 50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9846 at 1.9182, 23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9846 at 1.9185). We'll still hold on to the preferred case that price actions from 1.9846 is merely correction to rise from 1.8834 only as long as 1.9177 remains intact. But sustained break of 1.9177 cluster support will turn medium term outlook neutral and argue that the whole rise from 1.7047 has possibly completed.
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,684
  • Jan 15, 2007 8:46am Jan 15, 2007 8:46am
doji is formed on 1 h chart
  • #1,685
  • Jan 15, 2007 9:07am Jan 15, 2007 9:07am
Reversal has started?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #1,686
  • Jan 15, 2007 9:48am Jan 15, 2007 9:48am
Quoting wpbsyn
Cesarnc, The 78.6% line at 1.9721 is from a Fib drawn from 1.9846 to 1.9261 on the daily chart. Monarch mentioned this same Fib on post #1633, although as I mentioned, his charts and mine are about 1 pip different.

In reference to 2, I am still looking through the charts. The weekly Stochastics and the 4 hour are in their upper ranges but rolling. The daily stochastics has a sharp angle up. When you combine these it usually tends to compress the price until they come into alignment. That is the broad view. I am still calculating any measured moves and looking for other chart and candle patterns.
In reference to the Fibo at 78.6% - I would go from the High at 1.9749 to the Low at 1.9260 and that would give you 1.9644 for your 78.6 Fibo.

If you referenced the move from 1.9846 down to 1.9260 - the 61.8% Fibo was 1.9622 and the 78.6% Fibo would be 1.9721 mark
  • #1,687
  • Jan 15, 2007 9:53am Jan 15, 2007 9:53am
Quoting karmostaji
Reversal has started?
On a regular trading day with all markets opened, I would agree.

Even though I took a Short at the 1.9639 mark, I am tight on my stop.

These Holidays have favored the increase in the Cable for 8 weeks now, why should it change now?

I am still watching to see if we press up against the 1.9700 mark.
  • #1,688
  • Jan 15, 2007 9:54am Jan 15, 2007 9:54am
I have an offtopic question:
Which one is the right fibo level: 76.4% or 78.6%?
With google I can find both!?
  • #1,689
  • Jan 15, 2007 9:59am Jan 15, 2007 9:59am
Quoting monarch
If you referenced the move from 1.9846 down to 1.9260 - the 61.8% Fibo was 1.9622 and the 78.6% Fibo would be 1.9721 mark
Thanks. That's what I was missing here.
  • #1,690
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:22am Jan 15, 2007 10:22am
the reversal didn't start yet but we can see divergence on the chart i guess it will start in the coming hours or in the assian session.
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  • #1,691
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:25am Jan 15, 2007 10:25am
Thank you Mosheber
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #1,692
  • Jan 15, 2007 10:49am Jan 15, 2007 10:49am
Quoting mosheber
the reversal didn't start yet but we can see divergence on the chart i guess it will start in the coming hours or in the assian session.
Thanks, Mosheber... Are you short @ 966X?

I'm waiting as much as I can to place a short. However, as Asian session approaches, I will have to fly blind, during most of the session... I'm 13 hr behind Tokyo here....
  • #1,693
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm Jan 15, 2007 10:54am | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm
Look at the 1.9667 mark on your 1 Day Chart, this should help in recognizing the areas of resistance and supports since 11-30-06.
  • #1,694
  • Jan 15, 2007 11:00am Jan 15, 2007 11:00am
Dont eur/usd and gbp/usd move together?!

Eur/usd is about to rise right now looking at my 4h chart and gbp looks like its about to drop. looks like eur/usd will rise to 1.3028 from its current price 1.2935
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,695
  • Jan 15, 2007 11:10am Jan 15, 2007 11:10am
Quoting enzo2325
Dont eur/usd and gbp/usd move together?!

Eur/usd is about to rise right now looking at my 4h chart and gbp looks like its about to drop. looks like eur/usd will rise to 1.3028 from its current price 1.2935
Take a look at EUR/GBP. It has moved quite a lot in the last few days and there is bound to be some retracement of the move. If it remained static, both the EUR and GBP would move similarly, but the cable has strengthened while the Euro has not been able to make much headway lately, the retracement would therefore make the euro stronger while the cable may not be able to match the Euro's strength.

Hope I am making sense!!!
  • #1,696
  • Jan 15, 2007 11:14am Jan 15, 2007 11:14am
Yes... I took the eur trade since its moved 5 pips already toward my target... gbp is boring me even though im short to 9567

Im going to work.... Good luck everyone and thanks again Monarch for your valuable information you have been posting. Your right on the money everytime
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,697
  • Jan 15, 2007 11:24am Jan 15, 2007 11:24am
On my IBFX chart the 4H already show a hanging man but on MIG chart nothing.what do you think guys? yes i can see on H1 it's going down.usually i must convince by the 4H to enter the market but since 2 chart give me 2 different information.
  • #1,698
  • Jan 15, 2007 11:27am Jan 15, 2007 11:27am
Does anyone have a rough idea of what the GBP/USD will fall to tonight from thier charts, so I can set a limit order for tomorrow's gain? From my fundamentals I would have thought the pair will continue the rise??
  • #1,699
  • Jan 15, 2007 11:28am Jan 15, 2007 11:28am
Quoting monarch
1.9612 is the new High

Fibo 61.8% at 1.9591 will be the next Low, we should go through several short Fibo Retracement movements, then we will hold at a Fibo 1.9591 for the next push upwards to 1.9618 for the next Major Resistance.

1.9618 Should hold the price for several hours, then we will see if there is enough to drive the price upwards, or downwards from here.

I still expect 1.9645 to be the final point of turning towards the downward movement.
This was my projection yesterday, which I felt that 1.9645 would be the range of a new high, but we did see it go up to 1.9667 +22 pips higher.

We are now working a range around the 1.9650 mark just over the 1.9645 area I projected.

The next push up (if there is one), would be up to 1.9677 area, then a test of 1.9700 is not out of the question before we see a real strong resistance to this upward movement.

So far during this move upwards we have the bottom at 1.9316 and the top at 1.9667 - that would be 351 pips distance, the 3rd largest the past 10 range movements.

I may post some of this information later today if time allows.
  • #1,700
  • Jan 15, 2007 11:39am Jan 15, 2007 11:39am
[quote=monarch;187283]This was my projection yesterday, which I felt that 1.9645 would be the range of a new high, but we did see it go up to 1.9667 +22 pips higher.

We are now working a range around the 1.9650 mark just over the 1.9645 area I projected.

The next push up (if there is one), would be up to 1.9677 area, then a test of 1.9700 is not out of the question before we see a real strong resistance to this upward movement.

So far during this move upwards we have the bottom at 1.9316 and the top at 1.9667 - that would be 351 pips distance, the 3rd largest the past 10 range movements.

By the look of it your forecast is spot on, and the downturn has just started from 1.9662, any ideas of how low it's going to go?

Do you have any info on support/resistance?
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