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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #3,861
  • Feb 21, 2008 9:54pm Feb 21, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting forextrader9
Hi Trader416, I really appreciate your thorough response.

I am looking for someone to tell me if I am on the right track. Your reply has certainly helped and motivated me. But, I am still not sure if I am not the right track or proceeding completely off-track.

I don't expect to be spoon fed but just want someone to guide me along the way.

Thanks again.
forextrader9, you are on the right track. In fact, the only way I would say you weren't on the right track was if you stopped trying to figure it out completely. I know exactly what you're talking about the various aha! moments that later prove faulty, I've had my share of them, but on the other hand, I've been able to take the knowledge I've gained from this thread and apply it successfully in my trading. In fact, I don't believe I've even looked at and indicator to get in or out of a trade in weeks; it's actually a very empowering feeling when your fibs start to gel and things start working out consistently, and they will with more practice. All I have to say is keep at it; you won't regret it.
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #3,862
  • Edited 10:27pm Feb 21, 2008 10:16pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting forextrader9
I have read the Skunny Posts PDF around 5 times.
The trouble with that PDF is that it's not complete by any means, and is lacking that correlation you need from one post to the next. For example, it doesn't tell you that 4 posts discuss stops and what posts they are, or that post 1695 relates to post 899. I found it many times more valuable to compile my own list of posts by topic.

And again, don't overlook the little things he says, like near the end of post 1695 when he mentions the buy range. I didn't pick up on that until about the 5th time I read it. There are a hundred of those little hints throughout all his posts.
  • #3,863
  • Feb 22, 2008 10:52am Feb 22, 2008 10:52am
Thanks trader416/Dunkan, I am trying to stay focussed and re-read the whole thread again, most importantly Skunny's posts.

I hope I get to the treasure or make my own. I f there is anything you would like me to focus on, please feel free to guide. For now, I am focussing on multiple TF's.

Thanks again.
  • #3,864
  • Feb 22, 2008 11:51pm Feb 22, 2008 11:51pm
Although Skunny says that to trade properly, you need to consider higher timeframes, he actually says somewhere (I forget which post) that until you learn this stuff, just stick with one timeframe (not multiple timeframes). I would have to agree. I'd suggest GBPUSD, 1-hour candles. Go back a few months and start trying to plot fibs onto S & R such that each swing ends at a 138. Try to make them fit. Take note of which ones you can't for the life of you figure a way to make end at a 138, and these are the ones that he says to spend time figuring out why they didn't work. For that, you might check other timeframes.

After you've done that, start re-thinking some of the other little things he said, and they will start to make sense and you'll understand the significance of a post that you took no notice of before.
  • #3,865
  • Feb 23, 2008 12:53am Feb 23, 2008 12:53am
Quoting trader416
Although Skunny says that to trade properly, you need to consider higher timeframes, he actually says somewhere (I forget which post) that until you learn this stuff, just stick with one timeframe (not multiple timeframes). I would have to agree. I'd suggest GBPUSD, 1-hour candles. Go back a few months and start trying to plot fibs onto S & R such that each swing ends at a 138. Try to make them fit. Take note of which ones you can't for the life of you figure a way to make end at a 138, and these are the ones that he says to spend time figuring out why they didn't work. For that, you might check other timeframes.

After you've done that, start re-thinking some of the other little things he said, and they will start to make sense and you'll understand the significance of a post that you took no notice of before.

Failure to reach a target on a break usually means stalling or a reversal is coming.
  • #3,866
  • Feb 23, 2008 3:06am Feb 23, 2008 3:06am
Quoting Bobokus
Failure to reach a target on a break usually means stalling or a reversal is coming.

I still glance at this thread now and then but I am not even sure what everyone is trying to figure out - I went to Bo's thread got some direct answers on use of fibs and got many critical aha moments.

But why can't everyone just give a straight answer like Bo did. If you want to offer your insight do it in a way that is fully understood and answer follow up questions to the best of your ability to help the newbies or don't post at all.

I know you spent tons of hours to get your enlightment - so did I but I would never post hints if my intention was to freely share and help. If you feel you want to share but at the same time you also feel you kind of not want to - then don't post at all because it takes a special type of person to share without asking for anything in return. Some of my posts I have taken an hour to type just to make sure I get my view across as clearly as possible.

These forums are about learning if one simply post hints without pinpoint direction & explanation the newbies won't be able to figure it out - wasn't the intent of this thread to help those newbies - so they are not eaten alive by the sharks. I feel really bad for those starting out and after months of work are still completely confused.

I no longer need to be spoon fed - but when I started I was spoon fed for months - so if you are confused please go look for people that will spoon fed you and not learn from people that will throw you a peanut here and there just so you don't starve to death. And trust me if you are trading real money your account will die without exact to the point answers and guidelines.

I hope some that are thinking about sharing will do so openly - and I sincerely mean no disrepect to anyone.
  • #3,867
  • Feb 23, 2008 7:44pm Feb 23, 2008 7:44pm
Quoting maxster
I went to Bo's thread got some direct answers on use of fibs and got many critical aha moments.
....and when will you be sharing your aha moments ? I don't know as I've had any yet. All I've been able to do is compile Skunny's notes so that they start to make sense.
  • #3,868
  • Feb 23, 2008 7:58pm Feb 23, 2008 7:58pm
Quoting Bobokus
Failure to reach a target on a break usually means stalling or a reversal is coming.
Thanks Bobokus. That's what I was starting to think. I agree with Maxster. The trouble with this thread is that I don't even know if what Bobokus says is "correct" as far as Skunny is concerned, because he has never out-and-out confirmed very much at all. We are all just making our own assumptions as to what Skunny means, and we might all be wrong.
  • #3,869
  • Feb 23, 2008 9:13pm Feb 23, 2008 9:13pm
Quoting trader416
....and when will you be sharing your aha moments ? I don't know as I've had any yet. All I've been able to do is compile Skunny's notes so that they start to make sense.
I posted my aha moments in Phillip's 4H thread during the past week - these fib moments have completely deepen my understanding of price movement and have given me a more stuctured way to look at the market.

Please feel free to click on my name and look up those posts - I am not sure if this is what Skuny wants people to see but it has completely changed my trading.
  • #3,870
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:52am Feb 24, 2008 9:52am
If anyone of you hasn't read Bo's thread Fibonacci Trading you are missing out big time. Not only will you quickly learn how to use fibs, how they relate to and interact with support and resistance, and with other fibs, but you will also be treated to incredibly clear and precise training videos like at post #2454. The videos alone are worth 1000 verbal posts.
Thanks Bo please keep up the good work.
Mike
  • #3,871
  • Feb 25, 2008 11:04pm Feb 25, 2008 11:04pm
Well, it seems that Skunny has left us. It's been 3 weeks since his last post, and the thread looks like it's dying. I wonder if others would be interested in compiling what we "think" Skunny meant by his posts ?? I'll start with some simple ideas, based on reading and re-reading all his posts. I can cite the posts I got these from, if you have trouble agreeing with them. None of these are "aha" moments. I wanted to start with some basic rules.

1) On the definition of penetration etc, Skunny says: penetration = breach = poke. Whereas, as a break is a close over.

2) Stay away from the NY session. London is best. Avoid late Friday and Sunday (until a couple of swings are put in)

3) 1 hr timeframe is best to use, but watch out that higher timeframe targets aren't in your way.

4) The 138 extension is all that's important in the learning stage (the 162 is not)

5) Stops need to be in a specific place (at the end of the cycle for that timeframe), and if correct, are never hit; the stop should be in a place where you are prepared to reverse direction.

6) When you see price explode for no reason, it is completing a cycle so it can move on.

7) You should have a large range fib, with a smaller range fib within the larger fib; trade off the smaller one, in the direction of the larger one.

8) You should take your data off several platforms due to bad data.

9) Typically, but not always, he'll start a new fib from the extension if it hits to the pip or a little short. If it goes over that area he says he’s got some work to do.

10) He will only take retracement trades if they’re worth 70-100 pips.

11) Hedging is meant to be taking a position in the opposite direction if you get a retrace that is estimated to be at least 30 pips – If you enter a trade with a 100 + pip target you will likely have at least one nice trade in the opposite direction (if you want it). Only hedge if you have a trade set up.

12) When he has a trade go sour it is a result of his errors. “I can retrace the move after and see where I was at fault. Most traders (correct me if I'm wrong) have some difficulty accomplishing this task. Thus, they have nothing to fix. It just becomes a game of odds.” (a great quote !)

Feel free to add or suggest changes. Then if we can agree on these, we could move onto concepts. Who knows, maybe Skunny will see this and help us get a little further.
  • #3,872
  • Feb 25, 2008 11:23pm Feb 25, 2008 11:23pm
Thanks for summing up Skunny's post. I agree with all your points. Let me see if I can add anything... Sebastien
  • #3,873
  • Feb 26, 2008 12:13am Feb 26, 2008 12:13am
Quoting trader416
Well, it seems that Skunny has left us. It's been 3 weeks since his last post, and the thread looks like it's dying. I wonder if others would be interested in compiling what we "think" Skunny meant by his posts ?? I'll start with some simple ideas, based on reading and re-reading all his posts. I can cite the posts I got these from, if you have trouble agreeing with them. None of these are "aha" moments. I wanted to start with some basic rules.

1) On the definition of penetration etc, Skunny says: penetration = breach = poke. Whereas, as a break is a close over.

2) Stay away from the NY session. London is best. Avoid late Friday and Sunday (until a couple of swings are put in)

3) 1 hr timeframe is best to use, but watch out that higher timeframe targets aren't in your way.

4) The 138 extension is all that's important in the learning stage (the 162 is not)

5) Stops need to be in a specific place (at the end of the cycle for that timeframe), and if correct, are never hit; the stop should be in a place where you are prepared to reverse direction.

6) When you see price explode for no reason, it is completing a cycle so it can move on.

7) You should have a large range fib, with a smaller range fib within the larger fib; trade off the smaller one, in the direction of the larger one.

8) You should take your data off several platforms due to bad data.

9) Typically, but not always, he'll start a new fib from the extension if it hits to the pip or a little short. If it goes over that area he says he’s got some work to do.

10) He will only take retracement trades if they’re worth 70-100 pips.

11) Hedging is meant to be taking a position in the opposite direction if you get a retrace that is estimated to be at least 30 pips – If you enter a trade with a 100 + pip target you will likely have at least one nice trade in the opposite direction (if you want it). Only hedge if you have a trade set up.

12) When he has a trade go sour it is a result of his errors. “I can retrace the move after and see where I was at fault. Most traders (correct me if I'm wrong) have some difficulty accomplishing this task. Thus, they have nothing to fix. It just becomes a game of odds.” (a great quote !)

Feel free to add or suggest changes. Then if we can agree on these, we could move onto concepts. Who knows, maybe Skunny will see this and help us get a little further.

Thank you for sharing !
  • #3,874
  • Feb 26, 2008 6:43am Feb 26, 2008 6:43am
Let's keep this going. Let's talk about the DZ.
I have troubles with this DZ concept (use of interior fib lines). The first time Skunny mentions interior fibs (he never called it DZ), was in post 17, where he says

"My point I made before about taking trades off the S/R lines is something you can't do until you retrade a ton of data on Vhands or something similar. The point I was making, is you can do it successfully (I rarely take that trade unless I know it goes for 70-100pips.). "

He says the same sort of thing in post 905 - implying that trades taken off interior fibs is a secondary re-entry, whereas the main entry is on a penetration of the 0 or 100. This is shown again on a chart in post 908.

However, in post 189, he calls this 0 or 100 penetration entry "optional". That's confusing !

One final mention he makes of the interior fibs, starts with a comment on the DXTrade's chart on post 2373. This is followed by posts 2378, 2379 and 2380. In one simple sentence, Skunny implies, in my opinion, that for a fib to be valid, price has to retrace at least 38% first. However, in post 818 he says to modify your fib so that you have only 4 lines, the 0 and 100 and two 38 extensions. So here, he seems to ignore the interior fibs. Confusing again !

Any comments ? How do you interpret all this ? and what "concepts" do you think we can agree on ?
  • #3,875
  • Feb 26, 2008 7:00am Feb 26, 2008 7:00am
Quoting trader416
Let's keep this going. Let's talk about the DZ.
I have troubles with this DZ concept (use of interior fib lines). The first time Skunny mentions interior fibs (he never called it DZ), was in post 17, where he says

"My point I made before about taking trades off the S/R lines is something you can't do until you retrade a ton of data on Vhands or something similar. The point I was making, is you can do it successfully (I rarely take that trade unless I know it goes for 70-100pips.). "

He says the same sort of thing in post 905 - implying that trades taken off interior fibs is a secondary re-entry, whereas the main entry is on a penetration of the 0 or 100. This is shown again on a chart in post 908.

However, in post 189, he calls this 0 or 100 penetration entry "optional". That's confusing !

One final mention he makes of the interior fibs, starts with a comment on the DXTrade's chart on post 2373. This is followed by posts 2378, 2379 and 2380. In one simple sentence, Skunny implies, in my opinion, that for a fib to be valid, price has to retrace at least 38% first. However, in post 818 he says to modify your fib so that you have only 4 lines, the 0 and 100 and two 38 extensions. So here, he seems to ignore the interior fibs. Confusing again !

Any comments ? How do you interpret all this ? and what "concepts" do you think we can agree on ?
Realize that some of these instructions were for testing. Yes, for a fib to be valid it must have retraced close to the previous or completed fib's 61 or 38 level. You can learn to trade the inner fib levels, or take earlier entries, but you must, must, must spend the time watching price action, candles, candle formations, patterns, etc. so it isn't advised for someone until they have vhanded at least a couple of years of data. The DZ is someone elses' term.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #3,876
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:34am Feb 26, 2008 8:34am
Quoting galaxymom
Realize that some of these instructions were for testing. Yes, for a fib to be valid it must have retraced close to the previous or completed fib's 61 or 38 level. You can learn to trade the inner fib levels, or take earlier entries, but you must, must, must spend the time watching price action, candles, candle formations, patterns, etc. so it isn't advised for someone until they have vhanded at least a couple of years of data. The DZ is someone elses' term.

As GM said, The Decision Zone is a term that I use to describe the range between the 38.2 and 61.8 retracements where price often makes its decision to continue its prior direction. The fibs that Sizzler called IFibs are just the normal fibs, with their Descriptions changed to make them (IMO) easier to use.

I took this idea and also input from Bo's excellent thread to start a trading thread using the DZ concept as I see it for 15m and 5m charts, mainly during the 01:00 to 13:00 EST session.

It does seem to work rather well!

Issy
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,877
  • Feb 26, 2008 9:54am Feb 26, 2008 9:54am
Islander,
Are you taking your entries in the DZ, or just requiring that price goes there before you take your entry at the 0 and 100 ?
  • #3,878
  • Feb 26, 2008 9:58am Feb 26, 2008 9:58am
Hi trader416, thanks for reviving this thread. I would like to go back to the weekly exercise Skunny gave us. I have been focussing on this. He asked us to note that whenever the hi/lo is breached, it almost inevitably reaches its extension. He asked us to note when this doesn't happen. I am still trying to identify patterns when the extensions aren't hit and what happens when they aren't hit. Any hints on this are appreciated.

Thanks again.
  • #3,879
  • Feb 26, 2008 10:00am Feb 26, 2008 10:00am
I don't want to answer for islander but I believe his trades are when candles open outside the DZ.
  • #3,880
  • Feb 26, 2008 10:17am Feb 26, 2008 10:17am
The whole point of both Bo's and Skunny's threads is to learn to trade using fibs to show you where price is moving to and to have an Idea how far it will go. Every person will need to find how it fits for them self and make it their own. Keep practicing, learn the patterns that effect the pairs you want to trade, find which fibs on your chart make sense to you, and you will be fine.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
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