Manage probability while following the TREND.
Script/EA to balance losing trades agianst winning trades 23 replies
Daily Trades = Lazy Trades Journal 7 replies
Reading The Stupid Dogs' Mind 12 replies
DislikedDoes anyone knows what has happened in E/U? 50 pips straight in less than an hour?!! Why? Probably a complete BD move, OR maybe some big guy longing BIG for the long term.Ignored
DislikedMy understandings from AMM is attached both in picture & Excel. I assumed that we could take maximum of 5% at the first price touch of a significant reference level. After that we could only risk for the maximum of 1% of our account. In the other retraces we could use the maximum risk free trades as we desire.
Dear Haniam, Could you check it. There are some differences from what you have wrote & what I achieved.
Regards,Ignored
DislikedAll the current up move is based on rumors and speculation about the future of US economy and an expected cut of interest rate of 0.5 to 0.75
It is not backed up by real technical yet. It is more a BD play. BIG guys do not generally long here.
As a general rule, prices should go and test the highs before being able to go low.
It is like a market shaking to get rid of some positions in the market. Can you imagine how many Stop orders have been triggered by the fast move above 1.4710?
For our positions, we have closed 40% of them under 1.4620 first target, and the 60% remaining have been closed around 1.4700 after prices tested higher than 1.4710
We are considering to go short again at these levels if still bouncing since no real break out seems to be in place yet.
We see a new opportunity to apply AMM at 1.4735-1.4755 area level.
London open in less than one hour will determine market direction for now.Ignored
DislikedThe retrace is still under run, but is approaching a good resistance on the 1.4690-1.4710 area which will be a great opportunity to reenter the previously closed mid term and short term trades with small 30 pips risk and hundreds of pips targets at 1.4550 and 1.4450. A break of 1.4550 will let us enter in the yellow trading zone.
Green dotted line illustrate this.
The yellow dotted line shows the overall downward retrace move from the all time high that may extend under 1.4000 in the coming months or even weeks.
Things will turn for a bigger retracement up if 1.4720 is broken, and we may be leaving the green region and reentering the red region for a retest of 1.48xx level.
Please note that all this move does not harm the main uptrend direction of the EU pair.
Scenario 2 is still in play
Ignored
Disliked1- Sold 5 times normal risk @1.4738.
2- Secured 80% @1.4708. We are now 3% guarantee up in the balance we can use to can open 3 risk free short positions at a retest of the resistance area and we have 1 opened risk free position.
3- Targets are @1.4685, 1.4665, 1.4645 and 1.4625Ignored
Disliked1- Sold 5 times normal risk @1.4738.
2- Secured 80% @1.4708. We are now 3% guarantee up in the balance we can use to can open 3 risk free short positions at a retest of the resistance area and we have 1 opened risk free position.
3- Targets are @1.4685, 1.4665, 1.4645 and 1.4625Ignored
DislikedWe are now 15% guaranteed up in the balance and still having 4 opened positions to be closed at targets.
Target 1 approaching. We will close around 1.4690-95, move stops to BE and may sell the break of 1.4685
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DislikedThe retrace is still under run.
The first resistance area 1.4690-1.4710 has been broken today on speculation over the US economy and is challenging the second resistance area 1.4735-1.4755 which is being a great opportunity to reenter the previously closed mid term and short term trades with small 30 pips risk and hundreds of pips targets at per post #504. A break of 1.4550 is needed to let us enter in the yellow trading zone.
Green dotted lines illustrate this.
The yellow dotted line shows the overall downward retrace move from the all time high that may extend under 1.4000 in the coming months or even weeks.
Things will turn for a bigger retracement up if 1.4760 is broken, and we may be leaving the green region and reentering the red region for a retest of 1.48xx level.
Please note that this entire move does not harm the main uptrend direction of the EU pair.
Scenario 2 is still in play
AttachmentIgnored
DislikedWell, had a long order set at 1.4791...bugger bounced just before that...LOL.
Let's see if a better opportunity will present itself.Ignored
DislikedBig dogs got me good on EJ today...really not happy atm. Walked smack bang into their trap and realised it too late.
Anyway, will keep trying.Ignored
DislikedResistance area 1.4735-1.4755 gave us around 1400 pips and a 40%+ in the balance with tarde posted live previously.
This area is now broken and turn to resistance. We are in the red area.
All remaining positions opened previously in the 1.49xx level have been momentarily closed and reversed @1.4765 break and the stops are now below 1.4745. Target are in the 1.49xx area.
Resistance are now 1.4835, 1.4885 and 1.4930
Supports @1.4785(Pivot level), 1.4755 and 1.4705
1.4930-1.4965 seems a strong resistance area we may be used to short as per previous strategy, but with bigger SL. I doubt it is yet the time for a 1.50 break and these trades should give us good pips.
Today Friday, Feb. 22, we do not have important fundamental news, and trading will continue on speculation and rumors, favored by BD who may encourage an up move, only to have the opportunity to get rid from part of their huge longing positions at an excellent price, which has already created a strong move down 3 times previously.
We may use 1.4760-1.4790 as a support area, looking to buy a possible bounce of 1.4785 PL, or 1.4760 previous resistance turned to support, targetting resistance levels with 40 pips SL, but being ready to close and reverse on a strong move down.
We expect chaotic action over 1.49xx area, and if prices do not manage to stabilize over 1.4900 level, a down strong move can be seen.
Scenario 2 is still in play until 1.4970 is broken (A daily close above)
AttachmentIgnored
DislikedWe had excellent US data, but prices are not falling, yet.
There's a BD play in preparation!
Closing all EU long opened position @1.4885 for tons of pips.
Preparing to short the market. Seems 1.4885 resistance is bouncing, and a reverse is under way. Will see last news release in 30 minutes...
AttachmentIgnored
DislikedIgnored
DislikedResistance area 1.4735-1.4755 gave us around 1400 pips and a 40%+ in the balance with tarde posted live previously.
This area is now broken and turn to resistance. We are in the red area.
All remaining positions opened previously in the 1.49xx level have been momentarily closed and reversed @1.4765 break and the stops are now below 1.4745. Target are in the 1.49xx area.
Resistance are now 1.4835, 1.4885 and 1.4930
Supports @1.4785(Pivot level), 1.4755 and 1.4705
1.4930-1.4965 seems a strong resistance area we may be used to short as per previous strategy, but with bigger SL. I doubt it is yet the time for a 1.50 break and these trades should give us good pips.
Today Friday, Feb. 22, we do not have important fundamental news, and trading will continue on speculation and rumors, favored by BD who may encourage an up move, only to have the opportunity to get rid from part of their huge longing positions at an excellent price, which has already created a strong move down 3 times previously.
We may use 1.4760-1.4790 as a support area, looking to buy a possible bounce of 1.4785 PL, or 1.4760 previous resistance turned to support, targetting resistance levels with 40 pips SL, but being ready to close and reverse on a strong move down.
We expect chaotic action over 1.49xx area, and if prices do not manage to stabilize over 1.4900 level, a down strong move can be seen.
Scenario 2 is still in play until 1.4970 is broken (A daily close above)
AttachmentIgnored