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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,621
  • Jan 14, 2007 6:07pm Jan 14, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting ghitz
when cable meets target of higher low or 123, expect consolidation, and then cable tanks.

target of higher low is 9650. 9670 is apex of weekly triangle. 9670 is alslo 61% of daily outside bar that breaks weekly triangle.

patterns work.
Thanks for the chart, this may help in confirming the Top that seems near.
  • #1,622
  • Jan 14, 2007 6:25pm Jan 14, 2007 6:25pm
Quoting monarch
Thanks for the chart, this may help in confirming the Top that seems near.
why do you think a top is near?
  • #1,623
  • Jan 14, 2007 6:50pm Jan 14, 2007 6:50pm

The Week of 1-14-07 to 1-19-2007


I will be posting analysis from the "1 Hour Time Frame only" to test an additional filter which is a compilation of my recent strategy, but with a complete break down of each time frame continually as it changes during each movement.

As for the previous analysis I have posted, I will not have numerous price projections or movement/direction analysis.

I will be projecting only the Entry & Exit Target for 1 set up at a time.

I will not project a new target until the current channel/setup - or what I will call a "Range Projection" has been completed.

If there is failure in the setup or its target, or if correction is needed during the setup stage, I will post the "Revised Setup-or-Revised Entry-Exit Target" -or- Exit Setup.

Please refer to my previous post if there are questions concerning my strategy or analysis, I will be spending a great amount of time, which will not allow me to answer the many questions.

Please continue posting your analysis, and charts.

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend, for now we prepare ourselves for another great week of trading.

Good Trading to All!!
  • #1,624
  • Jan 14, 2007 6:54pm Jan 14, 2007 6:54pm
I see a great analyst improving his trading stride by stride. Continue your good work, it is much appreciated.
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #1,625
  • Jan 14, 2007 6:56pm Jan 14, 2007 6:56pm
I'm with you...

Quoting monarch

The Week of 1-14-07 to 1-19-2007


I will be posting analysis from the "1 Hour Time Frame only" to test an additional filter which is a compilation of my recent strategy, but with a complete break down of each time frame continually as it changes during each movement.
  • #1,626
  • Jan 14, 2007 6:58pm Jan 14, 2007 6:58pm
Look at the sellers! My daily chart shows short anywho, where-as my 4hr is showing long still - but looks like its about to change, and my 1hr is showing a long about to go short. I guess i'll find out pretty soon.

To monarch: again i can't say it enough, thanks for everything man! Also if i add anything i will stick to 1hr decisions also.

B
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,627
  • Jan 14, 2007 8:38pm Jan 14, 2007 8:38pm
very much appreciated with any and all of your postings!! keep it going!! i think i might give you a new nickname in Robin hood, helping all of us get a little gold from the big boys. thanks for your explanation of how you measure out the fibos, good chart. that was a weekly chart right??
  • #1,628
  • Jan 14, 2007 9:08pm Jan 14, 2007 9:08pm
So far since the market has opened we have run every Fibo 61.8% mark on the Hourly.

They were as follows:
#1 - 1.9588 completed from High 1.9606 to Low 1.9559

#2 - 1.9573 completed from Low 1.9559 to High 1.9595

#3 - 1.9590 completed from High 1.9595 to Low 1.9570

#4 - 1.9578 (Missed by 1 pip) 1.9579 actual from Low 1.9570 to High 1.9590

The completion of the initial retracement from the Close of the Hourly on Friday until present, we will see an upwards move from the 1.9579-80 support for a continual move to the next area of resisistance which was the High Friday at 1.9606.

The High since open is 1.9601.

This is the next test of resistance from the upwards movement last Friday.

As of now I am waiting for the "Setup on Entry", this may not come into play until we either go past 1.9628, or retrace back down into the "Setup Range for a Buy Entry"

There is no hurry with the market having little movement at this time.

I will be back in 2-3 hours for an update.
  • #1,629
  • Jan 14, 2007 11:00pm Jan 14, 2007 11:00pm
1.9612 is the new High

Fibo 61.8% at 1.9591 will be the next Low, we should go through several short Fibo Retracement movements, then we will hold at a Fibo 1.9591 for the next push upwards to 1.9618 for the next Major Resistance.

1.9618 Should hold the price for several hours, then we will see if there is enough to drive the price upwards, or downwards from here.

I still expect 1.9645 to be the final point of turning towards the downward movement.
  • #1,630
  • Jan 15, 2007 12:12am Jan 15, 2007 12:12am
I'm expecting price to drop pretty soon... maybe a little before the london open?!
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,631
  • Jan 15, 2007 12:15am Jan 15, 2007 12:15am
Based upon the Fibo level from the High at 1.9846 12-1-06 - to the Low at 1.9260 1-8-07, we are fast approaching the 61.8% Retracement at 1.9622.

There remains resistance right at 1.9615, just 7 pips below this 61.8% Fibo mark.

With the Holidays Monday in the US, this would be an ideal time for the price to slip past this Fibo mark to a higher range, then we could see some counter action when the Market opens on Tuesday driving the price downward for a correction.
  • #1,632
  • Jan 15, 2007 12:31am Jan 15, 2007 12:31am
I agree with you monarch, It will easily hit the 61.8 Fib when London opens and higher as the U.S. market is close today. Tomorrow we might see some retracement.


http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r...h_6bb377e5.gif
  • #1,633
  • Jan 15, 2007 1:18am Jan 15, 2007 1:18am
Quoting fxpinoy
I agree with you monarch, It will easily hit the 61.8 Fib when London opens and higher as the U.S. market is close today. Tomorrow we might see some retracement.


http://i143.photobucket.com/albums/r...h_6bb377e5.gif
I hear what your saying and it makes perfect sense however I think that could be the top right there take a close look at that picture what do you notice? also there is news tonight could be very bad for the pound
  • #1,634
  • Jan 15, 2007 1:23am Jan 15, 2007 1:23am
Do you think that the BOE had a sneak peak at the inflation data being released today? Based on the suprise hike i think we're going to see a strong number
  • #1,635
  • Jan 15, 2007 1:34am Jan 15, 2007 1:34am
the price is going up but cci and rsi going down. this divegence can lead to a short soon. but there is a possibilty to a spike upwards before the move down
Attached Image
  • #1,636
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:24am Jan 15, 2007 2:24am
Monday the first Day of the week the GbpUsd has:

Moved 100 pips are more 30 times in the last 53 days of Mondays for a 56.7% probability of 100 pip movement
The average daily range on Monday is 124 pips since 2006
Moved 100 pips are more 12 times in the last 20 Mondays for a 60% probability of a 100 pip movement
The average daily range for the last 20 Mondays is 112 pips.
On a bull run the average movement from previous days high to the days high is 69 pips.

The day of the PPI report the average range is 117 pips and a year ago on MLK holiday it moved 156 pips.
  • #1,637
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:27am Jan 15, 2007 2:27am
Quoting goodthings
Monday the first Day of the week the GbpUsd has:

Moved 100 pips are more 30 times in the last 53 days of Mondays for a 56.7% probability of 100 pip movement
The average daily range on Monday is 124 pips since 2006
Moved 100 pips are more 12 times in the last 20 Mondays for a 60% probability of a 100 pip movement
The average daily range for the last 20 Mondays is 112 pips.
On a bull run the average movement from previous days high to the days high is 69 pips.

The day of the PPI report the average range is 117 pips and a year ago on MLK holiday it moved 156 pips.
Hey "GT",

Good info. I have been looking on the net for GBP/USD characteristics but its hard to come by. Any suggestions

A
  • #1,638
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:27am Jan 15, 2007 2:27am
Great info! Thank you.
  • #1,639
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:27am Jan 15, 2007 2:27am
i got severals buy stops in the market, still targeting 1.9710, lets see...
its just money
  • #1,640
  • Jan 15, 2007 2:28am Jan 15, 2007 2:28am
There is a thread GBPUSD PPI that has some charts and pip movements of the ppi report and how it effects the trend that may be helpful.
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