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Real Time Fibonacci Analysis

  • #121
  • Feb 24, 2008 1:08am Feb 24, 2008 1:08am
Quoting Jared
Yes I am sure you are right. I was attempting a "hit and run" scalp like islander had been doing all day. I didn't have the luck islander had though.

I still think my biggest hurdle is where to place the dang stops. I had a couple scalps on friday that I was stopped out on only to find it reverse and head my direction an hour after. Lately I have been letting my losses run and cutting my profits short. Am I dyslexic???
I had the same problem, hit my stops and head my direction on a good
few trades. I thought it happens to me only, but seems its common
and its definately not stop hunting....its we who put stops in
wrong place or place it too tight (I wonder if 50-65 pips is tight?)
and ever wonder, when we trade without stops, the trade goes deep
red and sometimes won't even come close to breakeven!

On the contrary I have been successful trading the higher tf
without stops and leaving the trade for weeks & longer, making
4-500 pips is no big deal!
  • #122
  • Edited 1:46am Feb 25, 2008 1:28am | Edited 1:46am
Short from 1.9648. Found the most recent "range" greater than 40 and not yet violated, saw an idle Asia followed by a 1 hour pull back, then kaBOOM picked up a pending short.

On the M1 chart note that down near the fib low there was a consolidation range prior to break out, giving more strength to the break of the fib low if it should occur, and also the typical lack of momentum sparse candle activity became more dense as the true beginning of the session picked up and then broke out short...connect the dots became trace the lines.

This is one of those clean breaks I like where it initially goes about +20 and consolidates, allowing me to move immediately to break even if I want, then let price action show where it's going. Good start to the week.

Update: Moved stop to give +15 now that M1 support was broken around 1.9616
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #123
  • Feb 25, 2008 2:10am Feb 25, 2008 2:10am
I took my +15 and ran, it's coming up on 45 minutes of consolidation now and price is rolling back up. It could still very well go short on the hourly chart but I'd rather start the week with a safe gain than risk losing it all for nothing. I know through the week I can get more when it wants to give it to me stress free.
The swing fib targets 1 and 2 were both met anyway, almost immediately, so technically this move is done and I'm lucky to get a win.

I drew the red and blue resistance and support boundaries I chose on M1 and a purple "wave" movement guide to show how price made its new lows and then rolled back to violate a high resistance, triggering the stop for +15.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #124
  • Edited 2:28am Feb 25, 2008 2:15am | Edited 2:28am
hello guys. hope a good weekend was had by all. quick question. with the g/u. The price shot through the sell area and the candle closed obviously way down. In your opinion, would you wait to see the next candle and if cannot penetrate the 23.6 fib on the way back up,I understand the move still may have more power left in it if it cant penetrate??would that be a good entry. thanks just going through some scenarios as i muddle my way through. cheers steve

ps where on the metatrader can you colour the 38/ 62 fib area like you guys do?? my chart has so much stuff on it i am flat out seeing the area.
  • #125
  • Feb 25, 2008 2:47am Feb 25, 2008 2:47am
Quoting brisvegus
ps where on the metatrader can you colour the 38/ 62 fib area like you guys do?? my chart has so much stuff on it i am flat out seeing the area.
If you mean those shaded regions on some charts it's in the Insert menu, then Shapes or Arrows
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #126
  • Feb 25, 2008 2:51am Feb 25, 2008 2:51am
Quoting brisvegus
hello guys. hope a good weekend was had by all. quick question. with the g/u. The price shot through the sell area and the candle closed obviously way down. In your opinion, would you wait to see the next candle and if cannot penetrate the 23.6 fib on the way back up,I understand the move still may have more power left in it if it cant penetrate??would that be a good entry. thanks just going through some scenarios as i muddle my way through. cheers steve

ps where on the metatrader can you colour the 38/ 62 fib area like you guys do?? my chart has so much stuff on it i am flat out seeing the area.
Steve

You might want to delete the 23 and 74 fib levels so your chart has less lines, and we're not using them.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #127
  • Feb 25, 2008 3:01am Feb 25, 2008 3:01am
thanks thexder and kathy
  • #128
  • Feb 25, 2008 3:19am Feb 25, 2008 3:19am
Hi guys! I slept through that one. Well, it looks like it finally decided to retrace a little from that big move. I wonder if it will make it to 1.9575 this morning.
  • #129
  • Feb 25, 2008 3:29am Feb 25, 2008 3:29am
Quoting Jared
Hi guys! I slept through that one. Well, it looks like it finally decided to retrace a little from that big move. I wonder if it will make it to 1.9575 this morning.
Testing with realistic lot sizes and wide stops....lets see how it goes, will
keep updated.

Mukesh
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  • #130
  • Feb 25, 2008 3:45am Feb 25, 2008 3:45am
Quoting Jared
Hi guys! I slept through that one. Well, it looks like it finally decided to retrace a little from that big move. I wonder if it will make it to 1.9575 this morning.
I'm betting it will, if for no other reason than the fact that it is ranging along the uptrend long fib on the daily. I wonder how long this will continue before the market decides on a direction? Will it go further down to test the up trend pivot level? Or will it continue with the long term upward trend?
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  • #131
  • Feb 25, 2008 4:02am Feb 25, 2008 4:02am
It will be much easier to trade if it makes it's mind up from the longer term perspective. I am sick of this chop.
  • #132
  • Feb 25, 2008 4:25am Feb 25, 2008 4:25am
My current theoretical straddle is from 9615 to 9666 (the top of the run down that broke out first tonight, down to the low it made, ranging more than 40 and now having retraced 61.8% of the break out move, considering it time to reset a new straddle) although I don't know if I'm going to trade any more breaks today. I feel like going to bed (sun's about to come up) plus I always get the jitters taking more than 1 cable per day. The daily range so far is around 80, getting close to par for the day. It might just range the rest of the day.
Side note: Something interesting is happening on E/J regarding the week of ranging on there.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #133
  • Feb 25, 2008 8:45am Feb 25, 2008 8:45am
yikes! missed my entry on swissy just by 2 pips, however, made
cool 110 pips on u/c live! good start of week.

Mukesh
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  • #134
  • Feb 25, 2008 9:56am Feb 25, 2008 9:56am
Hi Bo,

Is this what we would call a good intraday set up?
Failed at the 61% ( Intraday long swing )

Thanks

AZ
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I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #135
  • Edited 3:02am Feb 27, 2008 1:18am | Edited 3:02am
Long from 1.9893 even though there hasn't been any retracement from yesterday's upthrust. I'm just blindly following my Asia breakout and hoping for the best.

Just locked in +20 minus spread
...been now consolidating 45mins and still hanging on, almost got stopped but the padding helped.
Hit 1.618 long ago, and now it just broke long again.
+20 AFTER spread now locked in.
+29 locked in after spread. I don't know where this thing thinks it's going but I 'm going with it.
+38 locked in. This is like 3 trading sessions in a row stapled together.
+38 final result.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #136
  • Edited 2:10am Feb 28, 2008 1:45am | Edited 2:10am
Short from 1.9790 with initial stop above 1.9805, a very good risk/reward move thanks to M1 s/r levels.
And a good thing, it was not very long lasting...small loss just a little more than spread after trailing stop one step down, no big deal.

Now looking at the M1 chart to see where that short break originated I see it was at the top of the candle that just closed, so the next possible fib I would pull in my approach would be across that previous candle to cover the break out range from start to extreme reached, and it's more than 40 pips so it's tradable by me. I can see that after the short that just happened, it has now retraced back 61.8% so I consider the whole move complete and I can take a break of either end of that previous candle now if I want, but I don't know yet what I'll do.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #137
  • Feb 28, 2008 4:49am Feb 28, 2008 4:49am
Anyone thinks he/she could explain why there was a downhill turn on the Cable? The pair finally opened above swing long and even went up to 15 Pips, but my TP was 20, then suddenly it just reversed, all in 15 mins.

With me placing my stop near the swing short, I obviously got stopped out. Heh. Made 68 in 3 trades earlier from london open till now. Then just gave back 46. I know if I was on live I would have wanted to rest for the night but I'm on demo and just testing to see what trades work and what trades don't
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  • #138
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:15am Feb 28, 2008 9:15am
Quoting disr
Anyone thinks he/she could explain why there was a downhill turn on the Cable? The pair finally opened above swing long and even went up to 15 Pips, but my TP was 20, then suddenly it just reversed, all in 15 mins.

With me placing my stop near the swing short, I obviously got stopped out. Heh. Made 68 in 3 trades earlier from london open till now. Then just gave back 46. I know if I was on live I would have wanted to rest for the night but I'm on demo and just testing to see what trades work and what trades don't

Its hard to do sometimes but you just have to wait it out as long as a candle doesnt open below your short fib level it will most likely come back and continue.
  • #139
  • Feb 28, 2008 9:39pm Feb 28, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting Bobokus
Its hard to do sometimes but you just have to wait it out as long as a candle doesnt open below your short fib level it will most likely come back and continue.
I know you watch your charts when you trade, but what if the trade is a breakout short? How do you actually judge when to take your losses and when to let the trade run?
  • #140
  • Mar 3, 2008 1:07am Mar 3, 2008 1:07am
The week is starting off with a little range within a range - the inner range of today's Asia is coincidentally bounded by the 382/618 trade zone of the outer range from last week.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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