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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #5,341
  • Feb 23, 2008 1:40am Feb 23, 2008 1:40am
Quoting DutchTrader
It really is, I mean I'm scalping. I feel like a guy who used to eat filets at Lugers having to eat fast food. Sure it's all beef, but goddamn.
God damn!!!

This was funny!!!

wow!!!

u really made me smile!!!

iiivb
  • #5,342
  • Feb 23, 2008 7:59am Feb 23, 2008 7:59am
Quoting DutchTrader
It really is, I mean I'm scalping. I feel like a guy who used to eat filets at Lugers having to eat fast food. Sure it's all beef, but goddamn.
That's a good analogy. Kind of reminds me of "me".

But then again "I don't care anymore". As long as I get my daily fix (GJ 100+ Pips). Maybe I should looking at trading AJ along with the daily fix of 100+? what do you think? I'll do some analysis this weekend.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,343
  • Feb 23, 2008 11:54am Feb 23, 2008 11:54am
Quoting cesarnc
First pics of BWR's ski weekend released...

http://community.planetjh.com/blogs/...hment/350.ashx

http://agoldenworld.files.wordpress....-yard-sale.jpg

http://www.cybersalt.org/cl_images/1...ospitalski.jpg

That's a shame.


I told that stupid skier not to follow me, he thought he could out ski a snowboarder, chump. I told him to go left, he ended up going right.

Happy Birthday Turtle sorry I'm late
Just Trade It
  • #5,344
  • Feb 23, 2008 1:25pm Feb 23, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting Ash
That's a good analogy. Kind of reminds me of "me".

But then again "I don't care anymore". As long as I get my daily fix (GJ 100+ Pips). Maybe I should looking at trading AJ along with the daily fix of 100+? what do you think? I'll do some analysis this weekend.
AJ is good for 100 pips daily as well, sometimes straightup sometimes up/down.

cesar,

From your mouth to god's ears we need a breakout. I'm positive that housing will give it to us. Talked to a friend of mine who's a developer, works in 3 states, mainly NY, NV and FL. He's not bullish at all on this "housing bottom" so we'll see.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,345
  • Feb 23, 2008 3:19pm Feb 23, 2008 3:19pm
Thats what I want to hear. More people pessimistic about the economy and housing in general. The more that believe things are bad, the closer we will get to an actual bottom. Of course things could always just languish for years too.
  • #5,346
  • Feb 23, 2008 3:25pm Feb 23, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting SunTrader
Thats what I want to hear. More people pessimistic about the economy and housing in general. The more that believe things are bad, the closer we will get to an actual bottom. Of course things could always just languish for years too.
I agree, we need to just take our medicine and get it over with. This languishing scenario you're talking about just leads to boring trading ranges.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,347
  • Edited 10:33pm Feb 23, 2008 10:30pm | Edited 10:33pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider


I told that stupid skier not to follow me, he thought he could out ski a snowboarder, chump. I told him to go left, he ended up going right.

Happy Birthday Turtle sorry I'm late

No problem......still celebrating.......


HOLLA
  • #5,348
  • Feb 23, 2008 10:33pm Feb 23, 2008 10:33pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I agree, we need to just take our medicine and get it over with. This languishing scenario you're talking about just leads to boring trading ranges.

I agree with all, put this damm bottom in so we can get back to the glory days of forex trading.........

Someone buy out the bond insurers, clear all the banks books and lets start over.......

HOLLA
  • #5,349
  • Feb 23, 2008 10:59pm Feb 23, 2008 10:59pm
I guess Buffet is coming to save the day.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23295017

HOLLA
  • #5,350
  • Feb 24, 2008 12:21pm Feb 24, 2008 12:21pm
Quoting DutchTrader
AJ is good for 100 pips daily as well, sometimes straightup sometimes up/down.

cesar,

From your mouth to god's ears we need a breakout. I'm positive that housing will give it to us. Talked to a friend of mine who's a developer, works in 3 states, mainly NY, NV and FL. He's not bullish at all on this "housing bottom" so we'll see.
Bottom / no-bottom is 50/50 in the newswires. I just don't care. I'm keeping GJ longs on positive rollover but I'll reverse my position if the stock market (carry trades) break out to the downside.

If they break out to the upside I'm already in the bandwagon. That's what I'm on.
  • #5,351
  • Feb 24, 2008 12:42pm Feb 24, 2008 12:42pm
Quoting cesarnc
Bottom / no-bottom is 50/50 in the newswires. I just don't care. I'm keeping GJ longs on positive rollover but I'll reverse my position if the stock market (carry trades) break out to the downside.

If they break out to the upside I'm already in the bandwagon. That's what I'm on.
Yeah I'm long AJ so we'll see, at this point I just grab the pips and run.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,352
  • Feb 24, 2008 5:44pm Feb 24, 2008 5:44pm
Hi guys,

I know this is FX forum but I thought you guys would be interested since we spend all week making fun of the Dow

If you see there is no interest in this let me know and i'll stop posting. But so far here is my reviewed analysis of the DJI. Been reading all weekend "Applying Elliot Wave Theory Profitably" this is what I came with that justifies the pattern being made by the Dow Jones.

For those that don't know anything about Elliot Waves the basic is that the market moves in 5 wave cycles. 1, 3 and 5 are impulse waves and 2 and 4 are corrective waves. My understanding of the market is based on my wave count that puts us in the middle of Wave 4 which is correcting a bigger downtrend movement.

Now, about correction waves the author of the book tells us that there are 3 main paterns: ZigZag, Flat and Triangle. The triangle is the only corrective pattern where wave 4 high is allowed to penetrate wave 1 lows.

If my reading is correct this happened on the 2nd of January where the intraday high of 12785 exceeded the wave 1 lows of 12728. So this should tell us we are in a triangle. Triangles are a movement that are made in 5 waves each comprised of 3 sub-waves. I marked the what I think are the first 4 waves of this triangle and a possibility for the 5th and final wave.

If I am seeing everything clearly (and of course, I'm probably not) by the end of the week we should have reached point E in the triangle and start wave 5 which should take the Dow do somewhere close to 10500 points.


A way for me to be proven wrong is for the Dow to break the C point I marked in the triangle, so going long on the break of C (12575 points) and going short at the break of B (12064 points) seems to me a good way of making money... and of course, look at USD/JPY for possible market correlation
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  • #5,353
  • Feb 24, 2008 6:38pm Feb 24, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting branco
A way for me to be proven wrong is for the Dow to break the C point I marked in the triangle, so going long on the break of C (12575 points) and going short at the break of B (12064 points) seems to me a good way of making money
I'd argue the opposite. We're in a bear market, so sell the rallies and thus going short around 12500-12545 is the better move with the trade being closed out with a sustained break over 12600.

The overall structure still remains bearish for me under 12800.

Disclaimer: I'm no EW expert.
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  • #5,354
  • Feb 24, 2008 6:50pm Feb 24, 2008 6:50pm
I agree on the bearish picture. Techis are likely holding the upside until good reasons to resume the uptrend.

I'm just not comfortable with the idea that the breakout will be to the downside. It's been already 6 months of the subprime mess and Dow 12k is not so low a level in the big picture.

For both sides, imo, there has to pop some strong reason either to boost bulls or bears and it feels like the worst is over.
  • #5,355
  • Feb 24, 2008 6:55pm Feb 24, 2008 6:55pm
Quoting cesarnc
I agree on the bearish picture. Techis are likely holding the upside until good reasons to resume the uptrend.

I'm just not comfortable with the idea that the breakout will be to the downside. It's been already 6 months of the subprime mess and Dow 12k is not so low a level in the big picture.

For both sides, imo, there has to pop some strong reason either to boost bulls or bears and it feels like the worst is over.
Agree with cesar, we need something really bad. I've been mulling this housing data and unless its something catastrophic, the market might just shrug it off in favor of clinging to the good news of the MBIA.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,356
  • Feb 24, 2008 7:22pm Feb 24, 2008 7:22pm
Quoting youalreadykn
I'd argue the opposite. We're in a bear market, so sell the rallies and thus going short around 12500-12545 is the better move with the trade being closed out with a sustained break over 12600.

The overall structure still remains bearish for me under 12800.

Disclaimer: I'm no EW expert.
I feel the same way, but still can make some money between 12575 and 12800
  • #5,357
  • Feb 24, 2008 8:08pm Feb 24, 2008 8:08pm
Quoting branco
I feel the same way, but still can make some money between 12575 and 12800
If we get there, and that's a big IF with the data being released this week.

Anyone with estimates on the bottom of this bear market for the Dow?

My first number is ~10000 if the bear market ends this year, but if it breaks that and holds into 2009 the next support on the charts isn't until around 7500.

If we see Dow at 7500, we may see riots on the streets. I still think we'll turn around near 10000, so I'll start some mild accumulation there on any signs of capitulation. If we reach 7500, I'm loading the boat with max leverage and looking forward to an early retirement.
  • #5,358
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:37pm Feb 24, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Agree with cesar, we need something really bad. I've been mulling this housing data and unless its something catastrophic, the market might just shrug it off in favor of clinging to the good news of the MBIA.
JPY repatriation has begun

The end of March is the close of the Japanese financial year and the weeks leading up to it typically sees significant amounts of JPY-repatriation, which usually translates into sustained JPY-buying. Japanese asset managers typically liquidate large amounts of existing positions and turn the proceeds into JPY for balance sheet window-dressing and year-end results. The recent failure of USD/JPY in the mid-108 area suggests just such a development at work this past week. I continue to look for strength in the JPY-crosses to be limited by such repatriation selling interest, with the bulk of JPY-buying likely to be completed before the third week of March.

Japanese banks will disclose subprime losses at the end of february/march and there is apparently 250 Billion in sub-prime losses yet to be disclosed. If the Japanese banks took most of these losses ... then god help the carry trades
  • #5,359
  • Feb 25, 2008 1:34am Feb 25, 2008 1:34am
Quoting branco
Hi guys,

I know this is FX forum but I thought you guys would be interested since we spend all week making fun of the Dow

If you see there is no interest in this let me know and i'll stop posting. But so far here is my reviewed analysis of the DJI. Been reading all weekend "Applying Elliot Wave Theory Profitably" this is what I came with that justifies the pattern being made by the Dow Jones.

For those that don't know anything about Elliot Waves the basic is that the market moves in 5 wave cycles. 1, 3 and 5 are impulse waves and 2 and 4 are corrective waves. My understanding of the market is based on my wave count that puts us in the middle of Wave 4 which is correcting a bigger downtrend movement.

Now, about correction waves the author of the book tells us that there are 3 main paterns: ZigZag, Flat and Triangle. The triangle is the only corrective pattern where wave 4 high is allowed to penetrate wave 1 lows.

If my reading is correct this happened on the 2nd of January where the intraday high of 12785 exceeded the wave 1 lows of 12728. So this should tell us we are in a triangle. Triangles are a movement that are made in 5 waves each comprised of 3 sub-waves. I marked the what I think are the first 4 waves of this triangle and a possibility for the 5th and final wave.

If I am seeing everything clearly (and of course, I'm probably not) by the end of the week we should have reached point E in the triangle and start wave 5 which should take the Dow do somewhere close to 10500 points.


A way for me to be proven wrong is for the Dow to break the C point I marked in the triangle, so going long on the break of C (12575 points) and going short at the break of B (12064 points) seems to me a good way of making money... and of course, look at USD/JPY for possible market correlation
Please keep on posting your analysis. it brings another perspective.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #5,360
  • Edited 1:41am Feb 25, 2008 1:40am | Edited 1:41am
Quoting youalreadykn
If we get there, and that's a big IF with the data being released this week.

Anyone with estimates on the bottom of this bear market for the Dow?

My first number is ~10000 if the bear market ends this year, but if it breaks that and holds into 2009 the next support on the charts isn't until around 7500.

If we see Dow at 7500, we may see riots on the streets. I still think we'll turn around near 10000, so I'll start some mild accumulation there on any signs of capitulation. If we reach 7500, I'm loading the boat with max leverage and looking forward to an early retirement.
I also posted on another thread a few months back that I saw the DOW around the 10000 range by Mid-Year this year and that within the nex two years we might even see the DOW around 6500. Now, if we ever see the DOW below 10000, I can't even begin to imagine the state of affairs.
Humble Lifetime Member
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