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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,601
  • Jan 12, 2007 4:09pm Jan 12, 2007 4:09pm
Quoting 59fender
tell me it did'nt just close at 1.9583
Well,

GFT says 1.9589/93 and Metatrader says 1.9585/89, so go figure.
My office is everywhere
  • #1,602
  • Jan 12, 2007 4:15pm Jan 12, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting monarch
I went to sleep last night after closing out my scalping short from the London open. And re-entered Long after we opened a clear candle above 1.9484 on the 5 minute candle.

I had projected 1.9506-19510 area to be reached first and possibly higher for the close of todays market.

My Target to 1.9550-75 was my expectation of what the Market was going to accomplish on Sunday. To my surprise it hit easily, closed out my Long automatically, and went up to the high 1.9606.

We fell short 15 pips from hitting the 61.8% Fibo which is the retracement setup from the Downwards movement at a High 1.9840, to the Low of 1.9260.

I am expecting some retracement from the high 1.9606 which is happening now, it should come down to the 50% mark at 1.9537 area and hold in this range for the remainder of the day session.

On the Weekly channel, the high at 1.9606 went and hit the top of the upwards channel to show completion and confirm this Fibo retracement setup.

I still expect the market to open Sunday,ccontinue the push up and re--test the High at 1.9606 (even with US out for a holiday we may even rise to complet the Fibo 61.8% at 1.9621.

Once this is accomplished I will have a better analysis of next weeks direction.

Hope everyone made some profit with the movement, It was a successful week, and I learned much from all of you.

Have a wonderful weekend.
At the very least there will be a short term bounce off the 61.8 level (like the short term term bounce off the 50 level) so we can safely take that trade with little risk and wait for a follow through (should be at least 50 pips in that trade) or stop and reverse a break above the 61.8.
  • #1,603
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm Jan 12, 2007 4:38pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm
Quoting rhasson
monarch, can you please give an example of how you draw your fib studies?
I'm new and trying to understand the thinking that go behind drawing fibs. I've been drawing them on all timeframes from the recent swing low to the recent swing high. Sometimes it's hard to know where does swing start and end. Also does it make sense to draw the fibs on an hourly chart and read them on a 15M chart? Do you draw them from the bottom up or the top down?

Thanks,
roy
I would keep every Fibo level that you have marked with the time frame you are working on at the time.

Make a Ledger of every time frame with the Fibo's from each time frame. Then as price moves you can look across the ledger at all the different time frames and see the different fibo levels. Most times, they are close to one another in the Monthly and Weekly. If your looking at the Day Fibo's you might have a few in the 8Hr and the 4Hr that are near each other.

Most of my foundational Fibo levels that I am watching are the Long Range Fibo's and I will sub divide each move within the Long Range Time Frame.

I am going to be doing some detailed study this week just on the Fibo and it relation to each time frame. I have a strategy I am working on that will allow a trader to enter and exit upon each Fibo Level that is cleared, but I have not decided to release any of this information on the Forum.

Just this week, I kept a record of each move and its relation to the Fibo setup that was being accomplished. You would be amazed of the profits gained in this stategy. I do not mention it here, I am only using simple support/resistance levels, Fibo relation, some EW as a backdrop, and other indicators for directional clarity.

With the amount of time this new strategy will take, I may lay off of posting so much on the Forum, I would hope that the past week has helped give new traders a basic understanding of technical analysis.

Here is a chart with the information you asked for.

I draw a Fibo from the Lowest point to the highest point (some use the candle next to the extremes).

From there it is basic:
38.2% would be the first Fibo I watch to clear.
50% is the Fibo I key on the most.
61.8% Fibo is the ultimate indication of price direction in reference to the move the currency is in.

If you had just finished a bear downward movement just flip these and go High to Low on the Fibo Setup.

Hope this helps some.
  • #1,604
  • Jan 12, 2007 4:44pm Jan 12, 2007 4:44pm
Quoting notouch
At the very least there will be a short term bounce off the 61.8 level (like the short term term bounce off the 50 level) so we can safely take that trade with little risk and wait for a follow through (should be at least 50 pips in that trade) or stop and reverse a break above the 61.8.
Am I understanding you correctly, that in your opinion the pair will go up to the area around 1.9675 or so before turning around? If so, you are seeing go much further than I see it doing after the decent/good US news today.

I really was not envisioning it going much past that 61.8 fib before turning around.
  • #1,605
  • Jan 12, 2007 4:48pm Jan 12, 2007 4:48pm
Quoting notouch
At the very least there will be a short term bounce off the 61.8 level (like the short term term bounce off the 50 level) so we can safely take that trade with little risk and wait for a follow through (should be at least 50 pips in that trade) or stop and reverse a break above the 61.8.
I am working on a strategy now that would identify each time frame and each support level that lso will coincides with Fibo Levels.

But yes, I would think you could catch the 1.9628 mark when it hits Sunday, but be careful, the US out of the market on Sunday and Monday, and you may have an extension upwards beyond this Fibo level, especially looking at the formation of the closing candles in many time frames.

We need to be careful, and patient for the direction to present itself.

I will be waiting for an extreme price increase or continuation beyond the Fibo 1.9629 which is common, before entering a Short position, this may be have an go at first.
  • #1,606
  • Jan 12, 2007 4:55pm Jan 12, 2007 4:55pm
Corrected the typo's

Quoting monarch
I am working on a strategy now that would identify each time frame and each support level that coincides with all the Fibo Levels.

Yes, I think you could catch the 1.9628 mark if it hits Sunday, but be careful, the US is out of the market on Sunday and Monday, and you may see an extension upwards beyond this Fibo level, especially looking at the formation of the closing candles in many of the time frames.

Be careful, and patient, for the direction will present itself.

I will be waiting for an extreme price increase, or a continuation beyond the Fibo 1.9628 (which is common), before contemplating a Short position.
  • #1,607
  • Jan 12, 2007 5:53pm Jan 12, 2007 5:53pm
See the chart on how the dblhc (double bar low higher close) played out for a few pips.
Attached Image
  • #1,608
  • Jan 12, 2007 5:58pm Jan 12, 2007 5:58pm
Hi goodthings, i remember you posting this yesterday very much before the news when most of us are still wondering of bulls or bears, thanks for the heads up. (Claps).
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #1,609
  • Jan 13, 2007 4:41pm Jan 13, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting monarch
I would keep every Fibo level that you have marked with the time frame you are working on at the time.

Make a Ledger of every time frame with the Fibo's from each time frame. Then as price moves you can look across the ledger at all the different time frames and see the different fibo levels. Most times, they are close to one another in the Monthly and Weekly. If your looking at the Day Fibo's you might have a few in the 8Hr and the 4Hr that are near each other.

Most of my foundational Fibo levels that I am watching are the Long Range Fibo's and I will sub divide each move within the Long Range Time Frame.

I am going to be doing some detailed study this week just on the Fibo and it relation to each time frame. I have a strategy I am working on that will allow a trader to enter and exit upon each Fibo Level that is cleared, but I have not decided to release any of this information on the Forum.

Just this week, I kept a record of each move and its relation to the Fibo setup that was being accomplished. You would be amazed of the profits gained in this stategy. I do not mention it here, I am only using simple support/resistance levels, Fibo relation, some EW as a backdrop, and other indicators for directional clarity.

With the amount of time this new strategy will take, I may lay off of posting so much on the Forum, I would hope that the past week has helped give new traders a basic understanding of technical analysis.

Here is a chart with the information you asked for.

I draw a Fibo from the Lowest point to the highest point (some use the candle next to the extremes).

From there it is basic:
38.2% would be the first Fibo I watch to clear.
50% is the Fibo I key on the most.
61.8% Fibo is the ultimate indication of price direction in reference to the move the currency is in.

If you had just finished a bear downward movement just flip these and go High to Low on the Fibo Setup.

Hope this helps some.




monarch, thank you for the explanation. I've learned a lot from your thread but sometimes the little setup things are assumed by experienced traders and us newbees don't always know them. The explanation and chart were great in helping me understand how you setup your chart when you discuss your fibo analysis.

thank you,
roy
  • #1,610
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 11:46am Jan 13, 2007 4:42pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 11:46am
Quoting ago
wat wil hapen if touches the coma in parbolic?
Maybe, just maybe it can make some of this scenarios ...coment needed..
its just money
  • #1,611
  • Jan 14, 2007 1:05am Jan 14, 2007 1:05am
I have been examining the gbp/usd over this weekend. Adding some new things into my trading. What I see now is since we got passed the 61.8% fib on my 4 hour chart.I see a Retracement coming into play. A really nice one if it plays out well. We should be going down hill now. May take a lil long but Im def. going short and my take profit will be at 9240 Even though I see us hitting 9118
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,612
  • Jan 14, 2007 2:26am Jan 14, 2007 2:26am
Gbp/Usd now at around 9600 ,

this level is good maybe for short than for long , is near to highest 9840 ( 240 ) and more far from lowest 9260 ( 460 ). ---> in my opinion only.

i better short then, " if go up to 9700 then i short again", " if still go up to 9800 then i short again " , and again through 9999. Wait and patience to 9260 then clear all the short position ". maybe need a week or 2 for this strategi to become real.

from my calculation is profitable , at least is better than put money in bank.

and i will wait until profit to clear position, even its need take a month or 2, its still +. with this above i will have better sleep.

My opinion only.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #1,613
  • Jan 14, 2007 3:07am Jan 14, 2007 3:07am
With consideration of the HolidayMonday in the US, the GBP/USD should open the market with a continuation of the price increase.

My projection upon review over the past day is for the price to continue to go up to 1.9645 before a retracement should be considered.

I initially placed a short for the retracement at 1.9590 looking for 1.9518, but the drawdown would be 55 pips to a profit of 72.

I will exit this short upon market open, and re-enter at a more reasonable area of retracement probablility.

Once this scenario is completed and retracement is operation, I will then re-evaluate the course of direction from there.

This is only an analysis, please do consider it a recommendation to enter a position.

See you Later tomorrow.

Good Trading this week.
  • #1,614
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm Jan 14, 2007 4:35am | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm
bup to 9670 apex of triangle, then down like a rock

g
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,615
  • Jan 14, 2007 12:10pm Jan 14, 2007 12:10pm
Hello to everyone and to Monarch, I just wanted to say that I am very happy to have found this thread on the Pound analysis. The analysis of Monarch and others is very and extremely interesting and I am happy to join you all.

Please Monarch, continue your good work in your analysis on the Pound as it really help all of us. I have no words to express my gratitude to you for all the time that you take to explain to us your great insights

As for me, I am 34 and in Montreal, Canada and and hope to contribute to this great thread someday

Wishing all of you great pips and success in all your endeaviors

Sincerly

shreem
  • #1,616
  • Jan 14, 2007 1:05pm Jan 14, 2007 1:05pm
4 hour looks like a double bottom? Maybe a continuation up to around easily 1.9650's? Could go up more, but like monarch says the U.S. is on holiday...

Just trying to put my 2cents in, it has passed my 61.8 fib line (if i drew it right ) so it could mean a retraction also, but since stoch shows overbought, i would say its safe to buy for a couple of pips at least .

I'm trying to become a better trader by posting what i see, so please don't use my statements, i'm just trying to see how close i come to what i read from the charts when it all plays out.
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,617
  • Jan 14, 2007 1:13pm Jan 14, 2007 1:13pm
divergence on the weekly chart.....
Attached Image
  • #1,618
  • Jan 14, 2007 1:23pm Jan 14, 2007 1:23pm
This is my strategy as newbie + big drawdown averse -> if it's going to help someone.

I kept myself out of the market during past week, but I kept close look at it, until getting myself in the same page as you guys here. I feel much more conformtable now.

9560s was the fib we were expecting before the big down move. However, GBP interest rate hike + Friday's news confusion helped cable touch the 9600s easily, that would expose other fibs above.

As we saw on early this year, the absence of big players makes erratic or exaggerated moves more likely and this absence will be seen on this Monday. So, I totally agree with the strong possibility of seeing 96HIGH during this Monday.

In the other hand, I tottaly agree with notme32's strategy. For those intending to trade this week's downtrend (as I am), then placing longs will be risky.

However, I'm averse to big drawdowns (psycologically). So, as I will be able to stay in front of the computer for this whole week, I'll still be trading this downtrend by staying out during the price increases we're about to see. At least up to 9640 levels.

If this increase fails and we head back to 95LOWS than I'll start placing shorts all the way down...

César
  • #1,619
  • Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm Jan 14, 2007 1:36pm | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:58pm
when cable meets target of higher low or 123, expect consolidation, and then cable tanks.

target of higher low is 9650. 9670 is apex of weekly triangle. 9670 is alslo 61% of daily outside bar that breaks weekly triangle.

patterns work.
With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/
  • #1,620
  • Jan 14, 2007 1:38pm Jan 14, 2007 1:38pm
..Great.morning everyone.it's 2.30 am here.geez


Quoting cesarnc
This is my strategy as newbie + big drawdown averse -> if it's going to help someone.

I kept myself out of the market during past week, but I kept close look at it, until getting myself in the same page as you guys here. I feel much more conformtable now.

9560s was the fib we were expecting before the big down move. However, GBP interest rate hike + Friday's news confusion helped cable touch the 9600s easily, that would expose other fibs above.

As we saw on early this year, the absence of big players makes erratic or exaggerated moves more likely and this absence will be seen on this Monday. So, I totally agree with the strong possibility of seeing 96HIGH during this Monday.

In the other hand, I tottaly agree with notme32's strategy. For those intending to trade this week's downtrend (as I am), then placing longs will be risky.

However, I'm averse to big drawdowns (psycologically). So, as I will be able to stay in front of the computer for this whole week, I'll still be trading this downtrend by staying out during the price increases we're about to see. At least up to 9640 levels.

If this increase fails and we head back to 95LOWS than I'll start placing shorts all the way down...

César
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