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Real Time Fibonacci Analysis

  • #101
  • Feb 22, 2008 5:51am Feb 22, 2008 5:51am
Quoting Islander
Hi Jared - as you know, I mainly trade GBPJPY, BUT when GBPUSD and USDJPY are moving in opposite directions, I usually trade them rather than GJ

Today being a Freaky Friday I am into "Hit and Run" trading for 20 pips a move off the 5m or 1m charts.....like this move.

It just shows how the fibs will give great profit potential off all time frames.

Happy trading

Issy
Good scalp. I have been waiting for a breakout but it may never come......
  • #102
  • Feb 22, 2008 6:10am Feb 22, 2008 6:10am
Quoting Jared
Good scalp. I have been waiting for a breakout but it may never come......
Thanks - so far today breakouts are not happening. Price goes a few pips beyond the prior high / low (just sufficient to trigger some stops) and then reverses.

This is why getting into trades around the internal fib levels - my Decision Zone - is IMO the safe and profitable way to trade these markets. Once we start to get trending moves again - soon I hope! - I'll be looking for the extensions to get hit.

Meanwhile I'll stay with Hit and Run trades....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #103
  • Feb 22, 2008 7:03am Feb 22, 2008 7:03am
I agree. I am out of U/J +5. Watch now that i did that it will plummet.:
  • #104
  • Feb 22, 2008 7:13am Feb 22, 2008 7:13am
Quoting Jared
I agree. I am out of U/J +5. Watch now that i did that it will plummet.:
Sure enough.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #105
  • Feb 22, 2008 7:34am Feb 22, 2008 7:34am
Short term Yen has just met its targets from its last swing (Yen1)and this could just be a bounce from that, for it to continue up the next swing levels (Yen2)will have to be broken a failure there and another attempt at the Intraday T1 is on. A break there and a test of resistance is coming(Yen 3). Once the NYSE opens it may get choppy.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: yen2.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: yen3.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #106
  • Edited 9:07am Feb 22, 2008 8:43am | Edited 9:07am
I had given up waiting and went to bed, woke up and saw it had just broken swing high and was on the first little pull back so I went long (at a better price with a tight stop) and now it just re-broke the high...it's on.

I hope it GOES somewhere though.

...Lapsed time almost 1 hour, I remember in the past after around half an hour if nothing's moved, I tend to choose a place to exit. Right now I'm within +5 of my entry price so I just set myself to break even. One little downside twitch and I'm out for free. It doesn't feel right today.

....And I'm out as if nothing ever happened. Now watch it go blasting up. I gave it every opportunity. At least twice it could have gone shooting up as in a healthy trade but it failed on its momentum and it's just drifting around so not my style.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #107
  • Feb 22, 2008 9:15am Feb 22, 2008 9:15am
Quoting Thexder
I had given up waiting and went to bed, woke up and saw it had just broken swing high and was on the first little pull back so I went long (at a better price with a tight stop) and now it just re-broke the high...it's on.

I hope it GOES somewhere though.

...Lapsed time almost 1 hour, I remember in the past after around half an hour if nothing's moved, I tend to choose a place to exit. Right now I'm within +5 of my entry price so I just set myself to break even. One little downside twitch and I'm out for free. It doesn't feel right today.

....And I'm out as if nothing ever happened. Now watch it go blasting up. I gave it every opportunity. At least twice it could have gone shooting up as in a healthy trade but it failed on its momentum and it's just drifting around so not my style.

With it being Friday and the fact Cable has been in one single move up since the low made on Wednesday its probably not wise to try and get in long, wait for a test of support and try it then. It just may not happen until Sun/Mon.
Im short Cable 1.9691
short Yen 107.10
short GBP/Yen 210.77

1 hour scalps

  • #108
  • Feb 22, 2008 9:16am Feb 22, 2008 9:16am
Quoting Bobokus

With it being Friday and the fact Cable has been in one single move up since the low made on Wednesday its probably not wise to try and get in long, wait for a test of support and try it then. It just may not happen until Sun/Mon.


Im short Cable 1.9691

Where's your stop?
  • #109
  • Feb 22, 2008 9:39am Feb 22, 2008 9:39am
Quoting Jared
Where's your stop?
none, manually decided
  • #110
  • Feb 22, 2008 9:47am Feb 22, 2008 9:47am
Closed all 3 scalps now on the last push cable just made.Done for the day now, they can do whatever they want with em now.
  • #111
  • Feb 22, 2008 9:52am Feb 22, 2008 9:52am
Quoting Bobokus
Closed all 3 scalps now on the last push cable just made.Done for the day now, they can do whatever they want woth em now.
Yep, hokus pokus.
  • #112
  • Feb 22, 2008 9:59am Feb 22, 2008 9:59am
Currently long G/J for a scalp due to trend line break, but it seems a little shaky due to GU possibly due for more retracement and UJ possibly still breaking out of that range short I mentioned earlier. Hope this doesn't turn out to be a bad trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #113
  • Feb 22, 2008 10:05am Feb 22, 2008 10:05am
That was more of a play on the Yen than Cable, The yen was falling from a rejection of the last swings resitance points, Cable had just pushed to a new high for the day and backed away from it. Shorting Cable was a gamble and shorting the Yen at the same time creates a gimmi on the GBP/Yen. With it being Friday there is no way I was going to hold them all I needed was for Cable to fall 20-30 pips and the combination of the 3 is an easy 100 pip scalp move. It netted 94pips. For a Friday thats good enough for me and im done.
Hokus Pokus fliminny flam makin pips as fast as I can....LOL
  • #114
  • Feb 22, 2008 10:17am Feb 22, 2008 10:17am
Looks like a rejection of the swing short as well as perhaps the pivot from a larger wave. Now I'm really thinking long wasn't such a good idea........
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  • #115
  • Feb 22, 2008 10:46am Feb 22, 2008 10:46am
Looks like Cable is rejecting the short fib and Yen the pivot fib. I took a small profit on my GJ long and reversed. Watching closely.
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  • #116
  • Feb 23, 2008 1:48am Feb 23, 2008 1:48am
Quoting Jared
Looks like Cable is rejecting the short fib and Yen the pivot fib. I took a small profit on my GJ long and reversed. Watching closely.
Dont get too zoomed into or close to price the smaller the timeframe the less reliable its information is going to be, Its just my opinion but anything below the 1 hour timeframe is an account killing chopzone.Even the 1 hour timeframe can be deceptive sometimes. I know its tempting but Ive been there and done that, and Im not going back to it.
To me where you have your fib, your pulling it across basically 2 and about a half of another...... 1hour candles in the middle of a movment, by zooming into the 5 inute chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #117
  • Feb 23, 2008 4:43am Feb 23, 2008 4:43am
Quoting Bobokus

With it being Friday and the fact Cable has been in one single move up since the low made on Wednesday its probably not wise to try and get in long, wait for a test of support and try it then. It just may not happen until Sun/Mon.

Im short Cable 1.9691
short Yen 107.10
short GBP/Yen 210.77



1 hour scalps

Hi Bob,
What made you go short on cable?As per your rules anything above intra day long you would prefer a long entry? Today cable did not come in either DZ zone and was above intraday long as well as AL line so then what made you to go short on cable?Also what trade do we go for in such circumstances where price do not come back in retracement zone but always remain above(as in this case) or below the zone?Also the fact seems that price also is ranging and not trending .What made you to decide to scalp the market and not apply your routine rules wherby to go long from intraday long and go short from intra day short?Although my questions may be very basic but they will realy help us to understand your trading style.Thanking you for your wonderful thread on Fibs keep the good work going.
  • #118
  • Feb 23, 2008 5:42am Feb 23, 2008 5:42am
Quoting bhatiaashish007
Hi Bob,
What made you go short on cable?As per your rules anything above intra day long you would prefer a long entry? Today cable did not come in either DZ zone and was above intraday long as well as AL line so then what made you to go short on cable?Also what trade do we go for in such circumstances where price do not come back in retracement zone but always remain above(as in this case) or below the zone?Also the fact seems that price also is ranging and not trending .What made you to decide to scalp the market and not apply your routine rules wherby to go long from intraday long and go short from intra day short?Although my questions may be very basic but they will realy help us to understand your trading style.Thanking you for your wonderful thread on Fibs keep the good work going.
If I may, When price is ranging, and in this case above the IDay long, you look for opportunities to trade as it bounces back and forth and you have to use the Swing fib levels to find the scalp trades. There was a approx. 60 pip candle and two 40 pip candles to take a nice scalp on, and T1 was completed on the swing fib. Although it is not recommended to trade the Swing, sometimes in a ranging situation, that is all we have.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu scalp.gif Size: 22 KB
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #119
  • Feb 23, 2008 8:00am Feb 23, 2008 8:00am
Quoting galaxymom
If I may, When price is ranging, and in this case above the IDay long, you look for opportunities to trade as it bounces back and forth and you have to use the Swing fib levels to find the scalp trades. There was a approx. 60 pip candle and two 40 pip candles to take a nice scalp on, and T1 was completed on the swing fib. Although it is not recommended to trade the Swing, sometimes in a ranging situation, that is all we have.
Yes, Fridays trades were actually using the rules I was trading the USD/Yen since Cable wasnt looking to move much, Once I saw a short opportunity with USD/Yen, Cable just happened to be coming off a new high...all i needed was for it to drop 20-30 pips and the combination of Usd/Yen already short, Cable retreating from a high point I entered Short on GBP/Yen since both its major pairs were moving in the same direction.
The fibs are just one of the tools to judge price movement from, price action is equally important.
Once Cable dropped enough of pips, Usd/Yen was hitting aDaily fib Support level...thats where I closed all 3 since GBP/Yen is just the end result of the 2 majors. It didnt matter what they did after that, Its all I needed to see for the positions I was in and being Friday with a decent scalping move its best to quit for the day instead of risking giving any back.
  • #120
  • Feb 23, 2008 10:07pm Feb 23, 2008 10:07pm
Quoting Bobokus
Dont get too zoomed into or close to price the smaller the timeframe the less reliable its information is going to be, Its just my opinion but anything below the 1 hour timeframe is an account killing chopzone.Even the 1 hour timeframe can be deceptive sometimes. I know its tempting but Ive been there and done that, and Im not going back to it.
To me where you have your fib, your pulling it across basically 2 and about a half of another...... 1hour candles in the middle of a movment, by zooming into the 5 inute chart.
Yes I am sure you are right. I was attempting a "hit and run" scalp like islander had been doing all day. I didn't have the luck islander had though.

I still think my biggest hurdle is where to place the dang stops. I had a couple scalps on friday that I was stopped out on only to find it reverse and head my direction an hour after. Lately I have been letting my losses run and cutting my profits short. Am I dyslexic???
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