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AUD/USD

  • #161
  • Edited 8:30am Feb 20, 2008 7:05am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting fising
good job my frend...Nice plan trading system.
Thanks Fising...And goodluck again to your journal also... I was bit busy throughout the day and only did this successfull trade and lock +30 Pips even it drop's for +76 Pips ... I was expecting the same move but im trading according to some rules & im strick to my rules like stop's, Money Managment & Profit target's that's why im doing good yet...
I think Im having some problem's regarding attachment of screenshot's...Anyone's else have ...???
  • #162
  • Feb 20, 2008 7:31am Feb 20, 2008 7:31am
Quoting Umairs2004
Thanks Fising...And goodluck again to your journal also... I was bit busy throughout the day and only did this successfull trade and lock +30 Pips even it drop's for +64 Pips ... I was expecting the same move but im trading according to some rules & im strick to my rules like stop's, Money Managment & Profit target's that's why im doing good yet...
I think Im having some problem's regarding attachment of screenshot's...Anyone's else have ...???
I am currently stilll short from 167.....Just moved my stop to b\e....Anyone here trade aud\usd on a regular if so what are your next targets....Last time we had a break we were looking at about a 300 pips movement anyone agree..
  • #163
  • Feb 20, 2008 7:37am Feb 20, 2008 7:37am
I have the first zone of 109 to be crossed if we can cross that with a hard break then we could be looking at atleast 200 pips in downward movement..
  • #164
  • Feb 20, 2008 8:57am Feb 20, 2008 8:57am
Quoting rav700
I have the first zone of 109 to be crossed if we can cross that with a hard break then we could be looking at atleast 200 pips in downward movement..
See the screenshot of AUD/USD From daily analysis... Im expecting the big down movement maybe in a next couple of days but only if it successfully breaks the lower line of channel, Maybe this pair meanwhile show's little bullish movement coz see it's 4-Hour chart SSTO in a oversold region and already drop's for +80 Pips almost, and i was expecting the same and it did...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.usd DAILY.GIF Size: 49 KB
  • #165
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:58am Feb 20, 2008 9:58am
Looks worth waiting for a retrace.
  • #166
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:30am Feb 21, 2008 12:30am
Good bullish movement of this pair for +76 Pips' yet same as i expected... for more see screenshot for detail...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Umair aud.usd 4-hour.GIF Size: 47 KB
  • #167
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:51am Feb 21, 2008 1:51am
Quoting Umairs2004
Good bullish movement of this pair for +76 Pips' yet same as i expected... for more see screenshot for detail...
wow...nice chart.. friend
  • #168
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:32am Feb 21, 2008 2:32am
Quoting Umairs2004
Good bullish movement of this pair for +76 Pips' yet same as i expected... for more see screenshot for detail...
i read ur footnote inside the chart.
i dont believe that with gold around all time highs we will c a bearish move fundamentally speaking.
technically speaking ur analysis was gr8 and i agree with u 100% cause my technical said we will witness a bearish move. if it reaches 9090 (major support in my opinion) we will witness more south movements..
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #169
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:29am Feb 21, 2008 3:29am
Quoting salah k.
i read ur footnote inside the chart.
i dont believe that with gold around all time highs we will c a bearish move fundamentally speaking.
technically speaking ur analysis was gr8 and i agree with u 100% cause my technical said we will witness a bearish move. if it reaches 9090 (major support in my opinion) we will witness more south movements..
I dont bother on indicator's much... Im a technical forex trader and believe on trendline's, channel's , Fib's, S/R & Other related trading method's... You read my footage inside the screenshoot where i said that im predicting a good bearish movement only if AUD/USD Successfully break's the lower line of strong channel in a daily chart coz my focus is on it now... I didnt said that i enter for short coz SSTO is in a overbought region...Read my all previous post's with my analysis... Preety accurate yet ... Anyhow i dont focus fundamental analysis much... but avoide to enter in an important new's announcement... Here i just try to give an easy explaination in my screenshot's coz of lot of newbie's... so they can easily understand... Otherwise my chart's are alway's filled with Fib's , Trendline's , Channel's , S/R , PP & SOME COMMEN INDICATOR'S....
  • #170
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:38am Feb 21, 2008 3:38am
Quoting Umairs2004


I dont bother on indicator's much... Im a technical forex trader and believe on trendline's, channel's , Fib's, S/R & Other related trading method's... You read my footage inside the screenshoot where i said that im predicting a good bearish movement only if AUD/USD Successfully break's the lower line of strong channel in a daily chart coz my focus is on it now... I didnt said that i enter for short coz SSTO is in a overbought region...Read my all previous post's with my analysis... Preety accurate yet ... Anyhow i dont focus fundamental analysis much... but avoide to enter in an important new's announcement... Here i just try to give an easy explaination in my screenshot's coz of lot of newbie's... so they can easily understand... Otherwise my chart's are alway's filled with Fib's , Trendline's , Channel's , S/R , PP & SOME COMMEN INDICATOR'S....
thnx for clearing that up.
i want to ask u what the medium term trend for aud is?
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #171
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:43am Feb 21, 2008 3:43am
Looking at the charts I believe we're going to challenge the high of 9223 again
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #172
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:47am Feb 21, 2008 3:47am
I suppose for traders of which this board is for, you're right none of the long term, key economic factors matter. I suppose really for FOREX traders FOREX trading is just another horse race and at the moment the AUD is a nice horse.

Quoting baron193
Hi there mchael,
post 141 by jurassic gives you a somewhat simplistic, but none the less, true
answer.

The above quote comes from jurassic also, it is great to just accept that sometimes we are wrong, we are allowed to be, we are humans....
Looking at the data of the horse for this year, it's just about out of steam and spent - it's a 75 cent horse trying to look like a 90 cent horse.

As much as the Jockeys would love it to get to $1, she just does not have it in her. If it does, this mare will keel over and die sparking a big crash and a lot of carry traders will make massive, unprecedented losses. See a $1 AUD will do massive damage to the Australian economy. The bigger the swing up, the bigger the crash down. AUG 07 proved it with a dump in the range of nearly 12 cents in days.
  • #173
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:55am Feb 21, 2008 3:55am
Quoting mchael
I suppose for traders of which this board is for, you're right none of the long term, key economic factors matter. I suppose really for FOREX traders FOREX trading is just another horse race and at the moment the AUD is a nice horse.



Looking at the data of the horse for this year, it's just about out of steam and spent - it's a 75 cent horse trying to look like a 90 cent horse.

As much as the Jockeys would love it to get to $1, she just does not have it in her. If it does, this mare will keel over and die sparking a big crash and a lot of carry traders will make massive, unprecedented losses. See a $1 AUD will do massive damage to the Australian economy. The bigger the swing up, the bigger the crash down. AUG 07 proved it with a dump in the range of nearly 12 cents in days.
Long term matters, it just depends on what TF you trade on.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #174
  • Feb 21, 2008 5:11am Feb 21, 2008 5:11am
Quoting mchael
I suppose for traders of which this board is for, you're right none of the long term, key economic factors matter. I suppose really for FOREX traders FOREX trading is just another horse race and at the moment the AUD is a nice horse.



Looking at the data of the horse for this year, it's just about out of steam and spent - it's a 75 cent horse trying to look like a 90 cent horse.

As much as the Jockeys would love it to get to $1, she just does not have it in her. If it does, this mare will keel over and die sparking a big crash and a lot of carry traders will make massive, unprecedented losses. See a $1 AUD will do massive damage to the Australian economy. The bigger the swing up, the bigger the crash down. AUG 07 proved it with a dump in the range of nearly 12 cents in days.
even so. wen people c that there r rate hikes back to back, the buying of this currency will increase and with gold holding at these high prices i dont believe that 1$ is out of the question.

whether it is good for the economy of australia wouldnt b a concern to any forex trader. wat we care about is hitting our tp and enjoying the rest of the day.

so a big crash coming after it hits 1$ is a win win situation for us.(means we can sell and make profit)
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #175
  • Feb 21, 2008 9:03pm Feb 21, 2008 9:03pm
I am long this pair since 90 and holding.....
  • #176
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:28pm Feb 21, 2008 10:28pm
What were the Fed overnight interest rates in USA in 80's?
  • #177
  • Feb 22, 2008 12:37am Feb 22, 2008 12:37am
I'm long since 9210 (8-9 pips in gain now) till 9245, SL moved to breakeven as I'm afraid of a fall if the EU and GU decide to retrace.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #178
  • Feb 22, 2008 9:56am Feb 22, 2008 9:56am
Clean Breakage same as i Expexted...+55 Pip's down yet ...As I said in my previous post's that im expecting this pair to Drop... Well it's a clean breakage in 30-Minutes chart and a winning trade for me... Also it may drop more...Maybe total for +100 Pips down but only if it successly broke the lower line of another strong channel in 4-Hour chart... Well Let's see... But still my eye's are on daily chart as this pair didnt broke yet the lower line of a strong channel yet ... If it successfully broke the lower line of daily strong channel then we may see a strong and good bearish movement...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30---Minutes AUD.USD Breakage.GIF Size: 53 KB
  • #179
  • Feb 24, 2008 5:55pm Feb 24, 2008 5:55pm
I am a new trader so im trying to analyze audusd as best i can so if any body sees mistakes id appreciate it if u point them out for me.

anyway i bought audusd at 8950 stopped half of it at 9200
my sl is at 8900 but i feel if it brakes 9090(78.6 fibo line) we might c more south movement towards 8965(61.8)

however my overall look at audusd is bullish because as u can c gold is at alltime highs, fresh investories coming from asia are investing in coal companies, strong economies, back to back rate hikes, and the usual dollar weakness which makes the 9400 pshycological resistance.
"what doesn't bankrupt me, makes me stronger" modern nietzche
  • #180
  • Feb 24, 2008 6:03pm Feb 24, 2008 6:03pm
Should stay up there at least while E/U is up I believe. Salah why do you keep your SL in the negative ? Not gonna move it to breakeven at least ?
On the path to Enrichment.
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