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Doji Star Journal

  • #41
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:53pm Feb 20, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting dhalsim
It is such a pleasure to see your post,
I also decide to trade daily chart with phillip's MACD strategy some days ago,
and it seems that MACD signal combined with engulfing, morning/evening stars would be a good signal, and very very good signal
A while back Alcastro and i (and another trader that posted on the 4hr MACD thread) realised this.We started backtesting and checking the importance of engulfments and stars on a 4hr MACD template on the Daily charts. The thing is, Phillip always stressed the importance of candlesticks as confirmation for a trade in any case, so we essentially weren't 'discovering' an add-on to Phillip's method. We were simply refining and improving our own trading by that exercise.
The biggest and most important part of my own trading strategy is that I work on what I know (or think I know!?) and get to recognise the set-ups I'm waiting patiently for.If I don't know something I don't try and incorporate it into my trading.I only trade so-called high probability trades.What is a high probability trade? Is it a trade you can risk your entire account on? No. High probability according to MY experience. I don't let myself be influenced by opinions. The chart evidence should be all the convincing I need.

After years of studying systems and charts and methods and signals, I believe every trader reaches that "Eureka" moment in his/her trading where everything just sinks in and trading becomes remarkably and monotonously simple. If you learn to keep things simple,recognise what it is you're looking for in the chart you're studying, and let the trades come to you, you see trading in a different light.Over-analysis can be a big danger 'cos you can convince yourself out of a trade.
  • #42
  • Feb 20, 2008 1:54pm Feb 20, 2008 1:54pm
I have three triggers that I wait for.I decided to backtest just how profitable each trigger is across the seven different charts I trade for as far back as possible.I did this because, although I was trading this system all along, I never recorded the trades and the management thereof to see where I could improve on it.
I noticed that the set-up of different triggers not only look different on different charts, but that wheras one trigger might have a very high probability on the GU Daily, it has a lesser probabilty on the UJ Daily, for example.
This is why, across the 7 charts I'm looking at, I only look at the high probability triggers for that particular chart. At present, I noticed that only one trigger out of the three has a high probability on GU daily so I'll ignore the other two triggers on GU Daily,for example.This is helpful when ALL seven charts give a signal. For instance, because you know that a certain signal on Silver 4hr has more probability of coming off than another signal on the Swissy Daily, you're more likely to only take the Silver 4hr trade!!This is almost a type of "Kelly Criterion" filtering.

The one thing I couldn't backtest for though, was managing each individual trade. When to adjust stops, targets,etc. Hence this journal. Once it's proven itself thoroughly, I'll post all the details of it.
  • #43
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:53am Feb 21, 2008 1:53am
Check out this article on "Kelly Crirerion".
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../04/091504.asp
  • #44
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:12am Feb 21, 2008 2:12am
EURUSDDailyVery long tail on candle close (bullish). Might have some sideways movement over the next few days with a bullish bias.
GBPUSDDailyLooking for retracement back to 17.5-17.7 followed by another bullish breakout.
USDCHFDailyAccording to my chart, I have 3 higher lows and I’m looking for a break of 1.1017, targeting 1.1105.
USDJPYDailyNo signal. There was a signal to go long last week. Had I taken it I’d still be languishing at around breakeven. Series of higher lows recently shows bullish bias with buying pressure coming in.
SilverDailyThere was a long signal on 19/2/2008. Wary to go long at these record levels. Waiting to hop on board the retracement train down when it presents itself. It could possibly go much higher before retracing or consolidating though.
GBPUSD4 hourNo signals.
Silver4 hourHad long signal yesterday. Wary to go long at these record levels.
  • #45
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:59am Feb 21, 2008 2:59am
[QUOTEUSDJPYDailyNo signal. There was a signal to go long last week. Had I taken it I’d still be languishing at around breakeven. Series of higher lows recently shows bullish bias with buying pressure coming in.
[/quote]

Problem with going long now is the strong resistance level shown on the accompanying chart.We need a break of the trendline or the resistance level to get on board. Personally, I'm of the opinion it'll break the lower trendline and go down to 105.60.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 21 feb 2008.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #46
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:32am Feb 21, 2008 8:32am
Quoting Doji Star
I have three triggers that I wait for.I decided to backtest just how profitable each trigger is across the seven different charts I trade for as far back as possible.I did this because, although I was trading this system all along, I never recorded the trades and the management thereof to see where I could improve on it.
I noticed that the set-up of different triggers not only look different on different charts, but that wheras one trigger might have a very high probability on the GU Daily, it has a lesser probabilty on the UJ Daily, for example.
This is why, across the 7 charts I'm looking at, I only look at the high probability triggers for that particular chart. At present, I noticed that only one trigger out of the three has a high probability on GU daily so I'll ignore the other two triggers on GU Daily,for example.This is helpful when ALL seven charts give a signal. For instance, because you know that a certain signal on Silver 4hr has more probability of coming off than another signal on the Swissy Daily, you're more likely to only take the Silver 4hr trade!!This is almost a type of "Kelly Criterion" filtering.

The one thing I couldn't backtest for though, was managing each individual trade. When to adjust stops, targets,etc. Hence this journal. Once it's proven itself thoroughly, I'll post all the details of it.
you have posted a lot of details,
and I could benefit from either the chart or the comment,
and that's a great deal
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #47
  • Feb 21, 2008 10:54am Feb 21, 2008 10:54am
Stop loss nearly hit! what caused this HUGE bearish maribozu on Swissy??
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf h4 21 feb 2008.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf d1 21 feb 2008.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #48
  • Edited 11:36am Feb 21, 2008 11:31am | Edited 11:36am
Stop Loss hit for 121 pip loss.
But check out the drop on the Swissy. WOW!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf h4 21 feb 2008.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #49
  • Feb 22, 2008 2:05am Feb 22, 2008 2:05am
Silver is way underpriced when you look at it's correlation with the Gold price, however, it won't go up in a straight line. The overall trend is up. I feel that there are pips to be made once the rising wedge lower trendline breaks.Silver will come down before continuing it's way skyward. Timing this short trade will be vital as Silver is a very volatile instrument at these record levels. We could see another 400 pip advance before a little correction occurs.This correction could be lucrative to short if you consider that Silver's average true range is 450 pips.

I'll watch this chart closely next week but I'll wait for the trigger signal before I take the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver d1 22 feb 2008.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #50
  • Feb 22, 2008 2:23am Feb 22, 2008 2:23am
Concerning the USDCHF loss I sustained yesterday: when you follow a system, any system, you can be sure of one thing, you will sustain losses. I followed my strategy to the letter, but lost out on this one. It happens.

The most consecutive losses (in backtesting as far back as possible, nearly 1000 trades) was three.As long as my money management is good I will preserve my account and build it up.This week two trades presented themselves. Lost one(-121 pips) and won one (+100 pips) and for the week I'm down 21 pips. I left a lot of pips on the table with my winning trade, so I'll have to look into my trade management a bit more.
  • #51
  • Feb 24, 2008 9:11pm Feb 24, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting Doji Star
Concerning the USDCHF loss I sustained yesterday: when you follow a system, any system, you can be sure of one thing, you will sustain losses. I followed my strategy to the letter, but lost out on this one. It happens.

The most consecutive losses (in backtesting as far back as possible, nearly 1000 trades) was three.As long as my money management is good I will preserve my account and build it up.This week two trades presented themselves. Lost one(-121 pips) and won one (+100 pips) and for the week I'm down 21 pips. I left a lot of pips on the table with my winning trade, so I'll have to look into my trade management a bit more.
actually TP1 was hit, and I think you should simply move the stoploss above the previous day's high just as you did in USDCHF trade and let TP hit. then you would got more
keep posting!
and sorry for my English, hope you could understand what i say.
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #52
  • Feb 25, 2008 1:36am Feb 25, 2008 1:36am
Quoting dhalsim
actually TP1 was hit, and I think you should simply move the stoploss above the previous day's high just as you did in USDCHF trade and let TP hit. then you would got more Absolutely, I did think of that, too. Got to be more consistent with every trade.
keep posting!
and sorry for my English, hope you could understand what i say.
Your English is just fine. Please keep the insightful comments coming, dhalsim. Thanks
  • #53
  • Feb 25, 2008 1:45am Feb 25, 2008 1:45am
Thus far today, silver (on daily chart) has met some resistance at the top of the rising wedge that had been forming over the last month and a half. Still patiently looking to cash in on a break of this lower trendline. It IS against the trend, but any correction is healthy in any bull market and silver cannot possibly go up in a straight line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver d1 25 feb 2008.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #54
  • Edited 4:39am Feb 25, 2008 2:01am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting Doji Star
[QUOTEUSDJPYDailyNo signal. There was a signal to go long last week. Had I taken it I’d still be languishing at around breakeven. Series of higher lows recently shows bullish bias with buying pressure coming in.
Problem with going long now is the strong resistance level shown on the accompanying chart.We need a break of the trendline or the resistance level to get on board. Personally, I'm of the opinion it'll break the lower trendline and go down to 105.60.[/quote]

This was the trendline I drew last week. The trendline has since broken.I'm reluctant to trade as yet, even though the trendline has broken, because the market seems unsure of where to go and we could be caught within a range for the next few days. Also, there was a high probabilty signal to go long last week, so it could just be gathering steam for a move up.I'll wait it out further.
  • #55
  • Feb 25, 2008 2:09am Feb 25, 2008 2:09am
Here are the USDJPY charts I'm looking at.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy d1 25 feb 2008.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy d1 25 feb.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #56
  • Feb 25, 2008 2:55am Feb 25, 2008 2:55am
GBPUSD Daily = I'd consider going short if today's candle closes below 1.9576.
EURUSD Daily = Still trading within a range. No signals forming.
Silver 4hr=Market still uncertain.
GU 4hr=Wait for retracement to within the 8-21 EMA zone and look for Phillip Nel's 4hr MACD TREND CONTINUATION trigger before going long.If the 1hr chart confirms this long trade, you're good to go. If the 21EMA doesn't hold, DO NOT go long! The problem is (and as I said before, I don't claim to be an expert in the MACD strategy of Phillip's, I'm still learning!)the 89 MA is caught between the 8 and the 21.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver 4hr 25 feb.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4hr 25 feb.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #57
  • Feb 25, 2008 5:01am Feb 25, 2008 5:01am
Quoting UJ Daily looks set for long trade...<br /> [COLOR=&quot;Red&quot;
This was the trendline I drew last week. The trendline has since broken.I'm reluctant to trade as yet, even though the trendline has broken, because the market seems unsure of where to go and we could be caught within a range for the next few days. Also, there was a high probabilty signal to go long last week, so it could just be gathering steam for a move up.I'll wait it out further.[/color]
I'll keep an eye on USDJPY Daily with a close of 107.61.This will tell me that price has an upward bias. Price seems to be consolidating and 'regrouping' for a move up.A definite long would signal if price breaks 108.00 significantly, say with a nice ,big, bullish maribozu candle.Should this happen, I'll set the 1st Take Profit at 108.81 and Stop Loss set at low of 23 January 2008 which was 104.94. The Risk/Reward Ratio isn't that appealing, however.
  • #58
  • Feb 25, 2008 5:03am Feb 25, 2008 5:03am
here is the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj d1 25 feb.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #59
  • Feb 25, 2008 7:51am Feb 25, 2008 7:51am
Quoting Doji Star
here is the chart
I think USDJPY is in a small channel upwards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.gif Size: 14 KB
Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #60
  • Feb 25, 2008 8:34am Feb 25, 2008 8:34am
Noticed bearish divergence on Silver 4hr MACD chart. Going to wait this one out...patiently!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver 4hr 25 feb.gif Size: 30 KB
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