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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,041
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:48pm Feb 20, 2008 10:48pm
Quoting merrittb
earlier today i was confused about the rythym and movement of the eur/usd, but then i noticed that this area was prone to congestion, maybe it will give someone else the "ah ha" that it gave me.
Hi merrittb,
Yes it sure did give me that "ah ha" moment! Good observation. When I saw your post it explained why I was having some difficulty in these areas. There is approx. 500 pip channel currently on the chart, therefore lots of trading opportunities. Sometimes focus too much on the current price action without zooming out further to see the big picture. For instance, in the current market the 89/200SMA are not as firm as they were last year when the E/U was in a strong uptrend. So now, they are prone to be broken more easily. Just in the past week price moved above and below the 365EMA, 89SMA, and 200SMA 5 times.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_MA.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #12,042
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:26pm Feb 20, 2008 11:26pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
Hi vette1974,

some selling crept in, I will stay with it till stop. there's a long way to go in the day. it made two strong candles up so some mild selling IMO is nothing to be to worried about. the chart on the AUD looks good to me.

but looks anit everything!
AUD/USD having a very hard time at 82 cents. have tightened my stop a tad.
  • #12,043
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:34pm Feb 20, 2008 11:34pm
Quoting Palmer
Take a look at how price reacted to the 365 here, the bold gold lines and the blue triangles. The 4 hour closed below the 21 and found support right at the 365 'area'....again.

Per the method: Price can come back to the 21 (up) before continuing in the new direction (down). Price was making its way back up to the 21, per the 1hr. The close of the long bull candle was my entry which was about an even R:R. I took one off at the 21 and still holding one.

It was a simple matter of price reacting to the 21 rules and the 365.

I will refrain from posting any more 1 hour entries.
Palmer, please don't stop posting 1 hour entries, you have a very good eye for them, and it's a next step for me to learn.
  • #12,044
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:59pm Feb 20, 2008 11:59pm
I only trade the EUR & GBP now because before I was jumping around and was missing trades - those that are starting just stick to 2 pairs there really is no need for more.

Currently watching GBP again - cable has be very good this week. EUR has stay away written all over it.

GBP from here if 1H closes above 9450 I will no longer be short bias and will wait for clarity.

If GBP 1H closes below 1.9410 I will start to look for a perfect downside bounce off the last minor 1H swing.

This is again anticipating a 4H TC however I will follow whatever price is telling me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #12,045
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:02am Feb 21, 2008 12:02am
E/U looks scary to me, all MA'a are close, flat. They don't act as support or resistance, price is dancing around them, have no idea where it will go, so wait and wait. I'm not an expert in fundies, but it looks like someone doesn't want EUR to be high, but on the other hand there are no reasons for the $ to be stronger, so this makes all this range on daily since the mid of November and the 4 hours acting strangely.
Attached Image
  • #12,046
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:06am Feb 21, 2008 12:06am
Quoting maxster
I only trade the EUR & GBP now because before I was jumping around and was missing trades - those that are starting just stick to 2 pairs there really is no need for more.

Currently watching GBP again - cable has be very good this week. EUR has stay away written all over it.

GBP from here if 1H closes above 9450 I will no longer be short bias and will wait for clarity.

If GBP 1H closes below 1.9410 I will start to look for a perfect downside bounce off the last minor 1H swing.

This is again anticipating a 4H TC however I will follow whatever price is telling me.
Thank you Maxster, very good information, a bit complicated for me , but I'll study all your posts and let you know if I have any questions.
  • #12,047
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:10am Feb 21, 2008 12:10am
Quoting hijackxx
I bought EURO since 0.00 candle open. I took it based on ZB trade condition.
Finally it is starting to go North..
Wish me luck
  • #12,048
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:22am Feb 21, 2008 12:22am
Quoting hijackxx
Finally it is starting to go North..
Wish me luck
Good luck but get to BE soon as you can.
  • #12,049
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:51am Feb 21, 2008 12:51am
Closed the trade for 11pips. I don't like the current candle forming on the 1HR. The tail look suspicious there, though candle is not yet closed. Thx for the warning maxster.
  • #12,050
  • Feb 21, 2008 1:37am Feb 21, 2008 1:37am
I am no longer looking for TC on GBP. Price has delivered its second hint that a a turn may be forming first the 4H tail, and second the more important 1H 62% failed to hold.

Today price broke the 1H downtrend cycle 62% fib level for the first time since the down move started back Feb 14.

So those waiting for the 4H TC please be careful. I expect price to range till it makes up its mind and the 4H MACD TC signals to me are high risk now.

Hijack,

Nothing is for sure but in a high risk situation where it is unclear it is better to get to BE asap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #12,051
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:12am Feb 21, 2008 2:12am
triangle either in price and macd
(let me know if im wrong in drawing TL on macd)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #12,052
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:56am Feb 21, 2008 3:56am
here's me saying that the aud looked better then the euro on rhythm, I think I need to get my eye's checked!

I am still in there.
  • #12,053
  • Edited 6:18am Feb 21, 2008 5:24am | Edited 6:18am
AUD/USD,

TC Failed. 18 pip loss. 4 hour entry

**this is a 1 hour trade please forgive me members**

EUR/CHF

pa bounced off 21 ema MACD gave a TC I went in long with a 26 pip limit above spread filled.

+26pips

if not for the tc on the eur/chf would have been a average two days. quite a mess in some of my pairs right now. i am going to sit and wait for the rhythm to sought it's self out.

swissy looking good making a break I will look for a pull back to the 21ema or 89 with a TC on the MACD to get in. the swissy is now looking the good to the up side, see what comes of this.

good piping.........

update AUD PA, what a bastard! AUD stopped me and now went straight back up! you got to love it when that happens!
  • #12,054
  • Feb 21, 2008 6:53am Feb 21, 2008 6:53am
Quoting aihua5
Phillip，You have given all everything you know. I really appreicate your help. You are a great teacher.

Warmhearted native English guys, who can make this mp3 text transcript to help me or others learn the drawing tools easier? Thanks in advance.
-Aihua
Hi it is my turn to do the written copy of that mp3. i will have it up within the next few hours. thanks for your patience.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,055
  • Feb 21, 2008 6:56am Feb 21, 2008 6:56am
Hey what happened, you are not gonna stop posting 1 hour enteries are YOU ????? There are several of us who benefit from it. HMMMM maybe we dont thank you enough!!! Seriously your contributions are priceless.. Keep them coming.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,056
  • Feb 21, 2008 7:21am Feb 21, 2008 7:21am
okaaaayyyy...

There was another possible 1hr entry when the 4hr came back down to the 21 area and the bottom of the current channel acted as support as well. The 1hr shows another bull candle that may have served as the entry.

This is a simple matter of support and resistance trading per the rules of the 21. Look again on the 4hr how price came back down to the 365 the last time and the 38.2 fib # added to that support. To the upside on the 4hr, if we can get a close above the 61.8 level, that may take price back to the top of the channel.

Weekly unemployment claims due out in a few...
Attached Images
  • #12,057
  • Feb 21, 2008 7:25am Feb 21, 2008 7:25am
possible TC in loonie.let it to be formed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur1.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #12,058
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:12am Feb 21, 2008 8:12am
hi, here is the written copy of post 11990, please refer to te original post for teh pdf file. thankyou.
Nadia.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc written copy of post 11990 how to insert graphs.doc   6 KB | 472 downloads
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #12,059
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:32am Feb 21, 2008 8:32am
Members and Friends,

I had a trade on GBP/USD yesterday based on higher low on 4H MACD. Below is the scenario:

1. Long Entry @ 1.9412
2. Profit target is between 8EMA and 21EMA, price level 1.9460 pips. 48 pips target.
3. Stop loss @ 1.9379. 33 pips.
4. Trade close @ 1.9452, Time: Feb 21, 6:41AM. When I saw 25 pips up, I cancelled my limit order and I put my trailing stop 20 pips off of market price before went to sleep. It stopped me at 1.9452 (40 pips gain). In the morning I saw it is trading in the price range of 1.9580 – 1.9597. I need to figure out how to make more profit situation like this. Any suggestion from you will be apprciated. Trailing stop feature is not really working for me. I would post the setup chart but I have not figured out how to post chart.
Thanks,
Rahim
Never enter a Trade without a STOP LOSS
  • #12,060
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:42am Feb 21, 2008 8:42am
Quoting BIL2205
Hi it is my turn to do the written copy of that mp3. i will have it up within the next few hours. thanks for your patience.
Nadia.
Nadia,
Thanks for your effort. You all would like to take time to help others.
I love the community and I hope I can help others ASAP here.
Many pips to you.
--Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
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