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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #12,021
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:48pm Feb 20, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting merrittb
earlier today i was confused about the rythym and movement of the eur/usd, but then i noticed that this area was prone to congestion, maybe it will give someone else the "ah ha" that it gave me.
These critical S/R levels were established back in Dec.

These levels are from the corrective daily cycle of the weekly trend.

You can see these same patterns in the chart I posted a few posts back on the GBP except it is 4H trend to a 1H corrective cycle.

I hope some are starting to see the awesome indications here and how price becomes crytal clear when you look at it in relation to the varies timeframe.

The 4H is not clear right now because it is fighting a daily resistance fib level - if you were following the 1H trending cycles of price movement it would have hinted warnings back on Monday this week and to be careful with long entries.
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  • #12,022
  • Edited 3:45pm Feb 20, 2008 3:32pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Bad luck yesterday, I did make a little on the Eur though, My GBP short got stopped out then I went long on the EURCHF and lost about 30, Yesterday was about a wash lol and a lot of work too I was putting my stop at cost when +20 and seems that is buring me or it did on the gbp yesterday. May have to re-think that.
Yeh was a silly night on my part as well. my last two gave me 100 pips. last night i lost my objectiveness! I saw you were short on the eur/usd and was planing my swissy short, I thought hmmm.......

Then when i got knocked out I saw the euro drop like a rock my thought god, Ryan u da man!!!:

I have really noticed that the EUR/GBP moves off the 8ema. I remember u posted that u look at it alot.

good to hear you're feeling better.
  • #12,023
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:38pm Feb 20, 2008 3:38pm
I have taken a long on the aud/usd.

en 9193.
SL 9163
1st Tp 9221

IMO the aud/usd has great rhythm right now strong clean trending market. PA had a pull back to the 21 ema MACD gave a zero bounce (TC), see chart enough said! the only thing to think off. in my green horn Elliot wave counting skills i am calling this a possible wave 5 so it my be short and sweet.

good piping to all..........
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  • #12,024
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:38pm Feb 20, 2008 3:38pm
I meant to post this earlier, sorry for the delay. Anyway, did anybody else get any AUDUSD action today? I went long at 20:53 (about 6 hours ago) when a MACD bounce off of zero and price bounce off of 21ema was forming. I'm currently +24 with TP set at 0.9205. I've already set SL to BE after watching the price action. Other indicators set this one up nicely as well.

EDIT. whoops, didn't see the post above mine about this pair. i guess i'm certainly not the only one in then haha
  • #12,025
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:49pm Feb 20, 2008 3:49pm
Maxster, Cool stuff, is there a place to learn more about what all these levels mean?? I understand fib levels and pivots to some extent, however, this is new to me...


Quoting maxster
These critical S/R levels were established back in Dec.

These levels are from the corrective daily cycle of the weekly trend.

You can see these same patterns in the chart I posted a few posts back on the GBP except it is 4H trend to a 1H corrective cycle.

I hope some are starting to see the awesome indications here and how price becomes crytal clear when you look at it in relation to the varies timeframe.

The 4H is not clear right now because it is fighting a daily resistance fib level - if you were following the 1H trending cycles of price movement it would have hinted warnings back on Monday this week and to be careful with long entries.
  • #12,026
  • Edited 4:04pm Feb 20, 2008 3:50pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting wazzuvius
I meant to post this earlier, sorry for the delay. Anyway, did anybody else get any AUDUSD action today? I went long at 20:53 (about 6 hours ago) when a MACD bounce off of zero and price bounce off of 21ema was forming. I'm currently +24 with TP set at 0.9205. I've already set SL to BE after watching the price action. Other indicators set this one up nicely as well.

EDIT. whoops, didn't see the post above mine about this pair. i guess i'm certainly not the only one in then haha
yep i am with you on the aud....

you got in nice and early. the eur/usd also gave a long signal (zero bounce). But from looking at both of the charts i think the aud/usd has much better rhythm.

comments on that statement members?

Has any one been trading the EUR/GBP? I missed the last TC + 8ema bounce. that pair is just non stop pushing. a couple of dangerous tails on it though
  • #12,027
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:57pm Feb 20, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting bshadroo
another confusing trade .seems your trading style is completely different than the other people here.u sell when the people waiting for a buy and u buy while others waitinf for a sell,i really cant understand your trades but seems they are working.
it looks more interesting and confusing to me when i see your trades are usually near the important news and price goes in your direction because of the news.
Take a look at how price reacted to the 365 here, the bold gold lines and the blue triangles. The 4 hour closed below the 21 and found support right at the 365 'area'....again.

Per the method: Price can come back to the 21 (up) before continuing in the new direction (down). Price was making its way back up to the 21, per the 1hr. The close of the long bull candle was my entry which was about an even R:R. I took one off at the 21 and still holding one.

It was a simple matter of price reacting to the 21 rules and the 365.

I will refrain from posting any more 1 hour entries.
Attached Image
  • #12,028
  • Feb 20, 2008 4:06pm Feb 20, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting Palmer
Take a look at how price reacted to the 365 here, the bold gold lines and the blue triangles. The 4 hour closed below the 21 and found support right at the 365 'area'....again.

Per the method: Price can come back to the 21 (up) before continuing in the new direction (down). Price was making its way back up to the 21, per the 1hr. The close of the long bull candle was my entry which was about an even R:R. I took one off at the 21 and still holding one.

It was a simple matter of price reacting to the 21 rules and the 365.

I will refrain from posting any more 1 hour entries.

That was text book palmer very well done!
  • #12,029
  • Feb 20, 2008 5:47pm Feb 20, 2008 5:47pm
I am also in the AUDUSD it is heading down right now but I think it will go up for a short run.
  • #12,030
  • Edited 6:34pm Feb 20, 2008 6:03pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting EricthePip
Maxster, Cool stuff, is there a place to learn more about what all these levels mean?? I understand fib levels and pivots to some extent, however, this is new to me...
There is no magic meaning to these fibs but simple guidelines for S/R levels - because to me the definition of price motion is price movment to/from varies S/R levels.

Think of the fib levels as objective measures of Phillip's 8 & 21 EMAs - 32% fib as the 8EMA and 62% as the 21EMA. But the fibs are objective and are not subject to the horizontal time delay issue. In a 1H trending cycle, price respects the 62% fib of the last swing - this is exactly the same as Phillip saying price pullback to 21 then move away - then when price breaks the 21EMA or the 62% fib of the last move it is hinting the move may be over.

But the key is how the daily, 4H, 1H work together with the S/R levels and understanding the corrective cycle or pullback price movement.

Study my post on the GBP trade from today - look at the

1. 4H trend
2. 1H corrective pullback price movement
3. a minor 1H swing bounced perfectly

If you can put those 3 things together and get an AHA moment - I guarantee you will never look at price the same way. Sorry if all this seem odd but this is just too good to not share.

Now have a look below at the weekly EUR chart - see the pattern - up swing then corrective movement bouncing from the 32% fib of the last weekly up swing. Now to twist your head a little - think daily, 4H, and 1H while keeping the ideas of trending cycles and corrective cycles & at what stage is the various timeframes at.
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  • #12,031
  • Feb 20, 2008 6:26pm Feb 20, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting vette1974
I am also in the AUDUSD it is heading down right now but I think it will go up for a short run.
Hi vette1974,

some selling crept in, I will stay with it till stop. there's a long way to go in the day. it made two strong candles up so some mild selling IMO is nothing to be to worried about. the chart on the AUD looks good to me.

but looks anit everything!
  • #12,032
  • Feb 20, 2008 6:38pm Feb 20, 2008 6:38pm
Please don't refrain....

Quoting Palmer
Take a look at how price reacted to the 365 here, the bold gold lines and the blue triangles. The 4 hour closed below the 21 and found support right at the 365 'area'....again.

Per the method: Price can come back to the 21 (up) before continuing in the new direction (down). Price was making its way back up to the 21, per the 1hr. The close of the long bull candle was my entry which was about an even R:R. I took one off at the 21 and still holding one.

It was a simple matter of price reacting to the 21 rules and the 365.

I will refrain from posting any more 1 hour entries.
  • #12,033
  • Edited 8:03pm Feb 20, 2008 6:48pm | Edited 8:03pm
Ok, I'll study it over the w/end. My main question was trying to figure out how you have the names on the lines, retracement pivot, retracement short, retracement long, retracement t1/t2, etc.... Are these just renaming the fib levels.... I agree MA's decay over time and flatten out... but fib levels don't decay with time... MACD of course dwindles with time as well as the MA's converge....

I just looked at the charts from your post, looks like th 50% fib is the pivot, and the 38.2 and 61.8 are the others.... Makes perfect sense... I'll have to study this, as I'm not sure when to "pull the trigger" The G/U entry makes sense, but that was the 3 bars and a forth failure that flagged that.... Do you pull the trigger from the pivot (or failed pivot) when it crosses below the 38.2 (for a short)? Or is this a simply a filter for for the MACD signals (i.e. you need the motion between the fibs (which equal the ema's) to verify the entry)?


Quoting maxster
There is no magic meaning to these fibs but simple guidelines for S/R levels - because to me the definition of price motion is price movment to/from varies S/R levels.

Think of the fib levels as objective measures of Phillip's 8 & 21 EMAs - 32% fib as the 8EMA and 62% as the 21EMA. But the fibs are objective and are not subject to the horizontal time delay issue. In a 1H trending cycle, price respects the 62% fib of the last swing - this is exactly the same as Phillip saying price pullback to 21 then move away - then when price breaks the 21EMA or the 62% fib of the last move it is hinting the move may be over.

But the key is how the daily, 4H, 1H work together with the S/R levels and understanding the corrective cycle or pullback price movement.

Study my post on the GBP trade from today - look at the

1. 4H trend
2. 1H corrective pullback price movement
3. a minor 1H swing bounced perfectly

If you can put those 3 things together and get an AHA moment - I guarantee you will never look at price the same way. Sorry if all this seem odd but this is just too good to not share.

Now have a look below at the weekly EUR chart - see the pattern - up swing then corrective movement bouncing from the 32% fib of the last weekly up swing. Now to twist your head a little - think daily, 4H, and 1H while keeping the ideas of trending cycles and corrective cycles & at what stage is the various timeframes at.
  • #12,034
  • Feb 20, 2008 6:49pm Feb 20, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Phillip，You have given all everything you know. I really appreicate your help. You are a great teacher.

Warmhearted native English guys, who can make this mp3 text transcript to help me or others learn the drawing tools easier? Thanks in advance.
-Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #12,035
  • Edited 8:20pm Feb 20, 2008 7:15pm | Edited 8:20pm
I'm new to this method and I was hoping for some insight. I placed a trade today to go long on the GBP/USD after the 12:00 (3pm EST), just after the big candle. The actual trade was place at 5:00 (after I got home from work). The price had not moved much at that much, 16:00 candle compared to the 12:00. The macd was showing a ZB so I placed the trade. Since then it has not done much. I place my one of my take profits at the 62 fib and another 20 pips above. My S/L was placed 10 pips below the 38 fib. Should I place a trade like that after such a big move? I know that volume signif decreases after 3pm EST and is this why not much has happened? Any advise would be greatly appreciated.
Raymond
  • #12,036
  • Feb 20, 2008 7:58pm Feb 20, 2008 7:58pm
Hi Morelands.
I posted some charts on post 12,000 (p. 800) that might help.
The Euro has provided some good counter trend trades recently, but not the GBP. It's been moving laterally (like steps) before continuing the trend (see chart). The Euro has been retracing in wave patterns. The motion of the market dictates whether to CT trade or just to wait for the trend to continue.
All the best!
  • #12,037
  • Feb 20, 2008 8:18pm Feb 20, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting EricthePip
Ok, I'll study it over the w/end. My main question was trying to figure out how you have the names on the lines, retracement pivot, retracement short, retracement long, retracement t1/t2, etc.... Are these just renaming the fib levels.... I agree MA's decay over time and flatten out... but fib levels don't decay with time... MACD of course dwindles with time as well as the MA's converge....
Yes I just renamed the 32% 50% 62% 138% 162% - I got the idea from another thread so I can keep track of the levels from the various timeframes. Just watch the 32% to 62% of the previous swing that zone is the 8ema to 21ema area. When you apply simple everyday fibs to Phillip's rhythm in terms of trends it is an eye opener seeing price bounce from the fib levels when anticipating a TC signal. Then it blew my mind when I started looking at the various timeframes and how it fits together.
  • #12,038
  • Feb 20, 2008 8:23pm Feb 20, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting Hookem28
Hi Morelands.
I posted some charts on post 12,000 (p. 800) that might help.
The Euro has provided some good counter trend trades recently, but not the GBP. It's been moving laterally (like steps) before continuing the trend (see chart). The Euro has been retracing in wave patterns. The motion of the market dictates whether to CT trade or just to wait for the trend to continue.
All the best!
I messed up. I confused the EUR with the GBP. What a way to post my first question
  • #12,039
  • Feb 20, 2008 8:32pm Feb 20, 2008 8:32pm
I bought EURO since 0.00 candle open. I took it based on ZB trade condition.
  • #12,040
  • Feb 20, 2008 8:38pm Feb 20, 2008 8:38pm
Quoting EricthePip
I just looked at the charts from your post, looks like th 50% fib is the pivot, and the 38.2 and 61.8 are the others.... Makes perfect sense... I'll have to study this, as I'm not sure when to "pull the trigger" The G/U entry makes sense, but that was the 3 bars and a forth failure that flagged that.... Do you pull the trigger from the pivot (or failed pivot) when it crosses below the 38.2 (for a short)? Or is this a simply a filter for for the MACD signals (i.e. you need the motion between the fibs (which equal the ema's) to verify the entry)?
My main trigger is what I called 1st reject entry. I have 2 other triggers that take advantage of these corrective patterns.

For my 1st reject:

- price need to bounce from the last trending swing fib level - if you look at the GBP chart it did this multiple times - I perfer price to enter above the 32% then close below it, so price can go to the 62% then move around but I will start to qualify the minor swing when it closes below the 32%. If the 1H closes above 62% I will no longer look for trades short - this is an objective indication that price has broken Phillip's 21EMA rule.

- so if price closes below the 32% level I will wait for price to pullback and wait for a perfect bounce of the minor swing - the minor perfect bounce close must also be below the 32% level as entry trigger.

There is a bit of discretion what a perfect bounce is but you can spend some time with the charts and decide for yourself.

It you sit back and think about it - I am simply repeating the same steps on various timeframes - even down to that minor 1H swing.
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