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Quest 100 System

  • #21
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:40am Feb 20, 2008 9:40am
Hi Neal,
attached a chart showing us not to trade on non-farm-days... I found some more exciting days where this method would have failed several times.
But here some suggestions:

Why not add some more fib levels to the SMA and use the 13 SMA as an entry signal?
I propose to go short when 13 SMA crosses a fib level ABOVE the 89 SMA and vice versa.
Or going short (and vice versa) when price breaks below a level and the 13SMA changes slope for a certain amount of pips in the direction of the trade? This could be used as filter: Slope change 4pips - no trade, slope change 8 pips - trade.

Maybe we are touched too much by fibonacci? Why not other numbers? Gann for instance used square numbers and roots: 4-9-16-25-36 and so on. Maybe we'll get better results. It would be great to develop an EA which let's us play around with levels and there numbers.

When playing around with the mid-SMA, try 55 with 55 as additional levels to the 89.


The suggested method is great - maybe one should predetermine the trend on a higher timeframe and take trades only in one direction, avoiding whipsaws.

Sorry for the idea tsunami
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  • #22
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:07am Feb 20, 2008 11:07am
I added rsi and supernova as a filter
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  • #23
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:52pm Feb 20, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting ghous
hey Neal can you let us know if this stratgey works on other GBP pairs, i tried it on a few like CAD, AUD, but it looks like a little mixed up, do you trade only the GBP/JPY??

1) Tried GOLD - MA's will not go high enough to work on a chart - lol
2) GBP/JPY - I added a template quest100v_1.0gj.tpl to post #1 (requires higher settings than the base pairs.

Haven't tried it with any other than the base pairs, USD/CAD and GPB/JPY.
  • #24
  • Feb 20, 2008 2:54pm Feb 20, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting Ahil
great thread

how do you plan to overcome false signals which are big problem with MA in consolidation

There is an "offset" (DANGER AREA) close to the 89SMA that it will not initiate a trade - this filters some whiplash. Right now it's looking like +55 and -55 from the 89SMA may be where it ends up (i.e. no trades are started in that range).
  • #25
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:17pm Feb 20, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting Qman
Neal, just a couple of points. First, in your instructions, at one point you say:

"Now as common sense would tell us, the EMA's are moving all the time. That's where an EA comes in to monitor them and adjust them till one is penetrated."

... But nowhere do you indicate you are using EMA's, only SMA's. This is probably just a typo, so hopefully you can fix it ... Or you can point out how blind I am, since I don't see it.

More importantly, in a case where the price overflows the channel/river, your objective is the 89SMA, right? But what is the SL? Maybe you haven't decided yet?

And, one last question. You say buy or sell on the cross of the 89SMA. I presume you mean on the close of the candle crossing the 89SMA -- but you don't specify, so I thought I would ask. Maybe there could/should be a threshold beyond, so that a longer candle can get us in before the close? That's going to kill us in backtesting, but I'm already seeing, you know, 50 pip 15 minute candle breaks the 89SMA, and your system wouldn't have us jump in until it closes 40 pips beyond the trigger line... then it only continues 8 pips, only to reverse and stop us out with a loss. Same old story... I'm getting teary eyed just thinking about it :.

Thanks for your efforts.
EMA was a typo - have corrected - should have been SMA

When the price flows over the banks, the TakeProfit is set to zero and then the StopLoss acts as a trailing stop. The amount will be determined after backtesting but it looks like it will be about 15-25pips.

The EA is looking GREAT! at this point, just need a little more testing and then will release. You'll be amazed what it's doing!
  • #26
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:22pm Feb 20, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting gioviforex
Hi guys, sorry for my stupidity , but i did what suggested , but i cannot dowload the template
http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/2236/rightclickgd8.jpg

Move cursor over the link, right click on the mouse, and then choose "Save Target As..." from the menu.
  • #27
  • Feb 20, 2008 3:27pm Feb 20, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting Freewheelin
Hi Neal,
attached a chart showing us not to trade on non-farm-days... I found some more exciting days where this method would have failed several times.
But here some suggestions:

Why not add some more fib levels to the SMA and use the 13 SMA as an entry signal?
I propose to go short when 13 SMA crosses a fib level ABOVE the 89 SMA and vice versa.
Or going short (and vice versa) when price breaks below a level and the 13SMA changes slope for a certain amount of pips in the direction of the trade? This could be used as filter: Slope change 4pips - no trade, slope change 8 pips - trade.

Maybe we are touched too much by fibonacci? Why not other numbers? Gann for instance used square numbers and roots: 4-9-16-25-36 and so on. Maybe we'll get better results. It would be great to develop an EA which let's us play around with levels and there numbers.

When playing around with the mid-SMA, try 55 with 55 as additional levels to the 89.


The suggested method is great - maybe one should predetermine the trend on a higher timeframe and take trades only in one direction, avoiding whipsaws.

Sorry for the idea tsunami
Once I get it up and running I'll test a few NFP days to see what happens. Instinct tells me we will be fine due to the buffer zone arround the 89SMA.

It may go into a trade the wrong way and loose a little, but then will catch it going back down on the other side and make a bigger profit than the loss was.
  • #28
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:39pm Feb 20, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting nealc99
1) Tried GOLD - MA's will not go high enough to work on a chart - lol
Good day Neal. Thanks for the system .... I tried GOLD . adding level 1597, 987 and 610 ( + / -) to MA 89... It works great ....thanks
  • #29
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:29pm Feb 20, 2008 10:29pm
Quoting lurahemas
Good day Neal. Thanks for the system .... I tried GOLD . adding level 1597, 987 and 610 ( + / -) to MA 89... It works great ....thanks

Thanks for the help - got me pointed in the right direction. My mistake was changing the 89 - but it needs to remain the same.

Fib figures for template are 1597 & 610 (89 & 13 remains the same).

Template posted in post #1
  • #30
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:54pm Feb 20, 2008 10:54pm
I can't tell you how excited I am to see that the indicators are appearing to be "universal" (work on many varied pairs with just a few modifications). It's nice to see the market follow the same principals throughout the different pairs.

Keep in mind that if you "tweak" a template for a pair that I haven't listed and wish to post it, the only thing I ask is the values be Fib numbers.

When manually trading the indicators, you will find that you want as many pairs as practical to observe - say perhaps 8. This way you can pick the trades with the highest probability for success. This is when the candles OVERFLOW the banks of the river, take a trade in the opposite direction.

What I did today (manually) was take an OVERFLOW trade on the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD and on the second candle ABOVE the 13SMA I set a 25pip trailing stop and forgot about them. These were the most "stressLESS" trades I have ever done. I wasn't worried in the least that they would result in profit.

Sure enough - it wasn't much (guess I should have set it to 35 pips TS) but EUR/USD was +16 and GBP/USD was +18pips. They are still moving in an upward direction!

By the way.... the EA v1.0 (almost ready - found a bug or two while backtesting) would still be in the trade below. It uses a "buffer zone" below the 13SMA of about 25. This means that it has to fall 25 pips BELOW the 13SMA before it will exit the trade. By observing the 13SMA by scrolling BACK on a chart, you will see that sometimes consolidation takes place and may move down under the 13SMA then start going back up again.
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  • #31
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:18pm Feb 20, 2008 11:18pm
Here's an example of how the EA v1.0 reverses when a river BANK is hit.

(forgive the crude image, but was taken from the EA results and didn't want to take the time to pretty it up)

The white lines are the +89 -89 SMA levels (river banks).

You notice at the bottom it sensed the -89SMA breached and went into a BUY. In this case it was stopped out because it continued down (will be compensated for in the next version of the EA). Then it went back into a BUY.

Once it passed the 89 in the middle of the river, it was stopped out due to the consilidation, but when the market started moving again, it went right back in with a BUY then continued to the top and AUTOMATICALLY REVERSED direction again.

Finally exiting the trade after crossing the 89 in the middle when it sensed the market changing direction.

Total PROFIT from all of these trades (including the bad one at the beginning) was +177 pips.

P.S. By the way, if the EA is currently in a trade when one of the banks are overflowed (+89 & -89 SMA) it automaticlly goes into Trailing Stop mode and rides it up past the bank till it reverses (using a tight 15pip TS) then performs the AutoReverse.
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  • #32
  • Feb 21, 2008 12:47am Feb 21, 2008 12:47am
Alright Neal, roll EA Version 1 out and let's have a look...........

What pairs do you reccommend from your back testing ?
  • #33
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:07am Feb 21, 2008 2:07am
Quoting vincent001
Alright Neal, roll EA Version 1 out and let's have a look...........

What pairs do you reccommend from your back testing ?
I am testing/optimizing based on USD/JPY - the other 3 majors need testing as well as GBP/JPY. Think that should suit most peoples needs.

Got some of the bugs fixed and will be releasing in the morning for sure (getting too late and am having a hard time concentrating - lol).

You are not going to believe some of the back testing results!

Neal
  • #34
  • Feb 21, 2008 2:20am Feb 21, 2008 2:20am
Alright Neal sounds good. Can you please post the exact set-up in terms of indicators,templates, and EA in order and tell us exactly what currency pair to try this on. I must admit I too have been a little confused following things this time around.

One question Neal. You say that if one does this manually, one should buy if the market is above the 89 line and sell if below the 89 line. Are you specifically talking about the close of a candle above or below the 89 line so as to indicate when this would be a Buy or Sell ??

Thanks.
  • #35
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:44am Feb 21, 2008 3:44am
Short usdjpy at 108.04
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  • #36
  • Feb 21, 2008 7:55am Feb 21, 2008 7:55am
same thing as before, once released i will put it on my work MT4 24/5 and let it run
  • #37
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:12am Feb 21, 2008 8:12am
Nice method, am going over the strategy slightly, just to see what can be added/subtracted/edited. So far I am just trying to re-define entry rules.. To avoid the double bursted banks. But it looks pretty damn good..

Nice job neal.
  • #38
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:38am Feb 21, 2008 8:38am
I have made some minor changes to the templates in post #1 to help make things clearer.

1) quest100v_1.1.tpl - Levels +34 and -34 were changed to +20 and -20 and the color is now red. This level (+20 & -20) was determend after doing a 6 month backtest.
2) quest100v_1.1gj.tpl & quest100v_1.1gold.tpl - levels remain the same, just changed color to red.

The RED lines are the "buffer zone" (i.e. DO NOT ENTER A TRADE ZONE).

Once a candle has CLOSED outside the RED lines it is a 75% chance you are safe to enter a trade in that direction with high probability that it will continue in that direction (hopefully reaching the +89 and -89 level (banks of river) in order to take a nice profit).
  • #39
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:42am Feb 21, 2008 8:42am
Seeing examples is the best way most people learn something new.

Here is a chart of a trade I took this morning.

The SAFEST entries in this entire system is to catch the retracement AFTER the market has went OUTSIDE the banks of the river (+89 & -89 levels - brown lines).

Once a candle closes BELOW the 13SMA then enter the trade in that direction.

I entered a little early.....

When trading manually, I put a 35pip Trailing Stop on it and forget about it. The desired target will be the 89SMA (blue line in middle), but of course it can go further than that.
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  • #40
  • Feb 21, 2008 8:55am Feb 21, 2008 8:55am
Nice, entry with SMA13, it looks similiar to Gann Hi Lo entry signal, change is that you wouldnt use SMA13 close and price cross as entry singal but in this case when price closes below SMA13 low, but if it functions this way why change it
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