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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,981
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:26am Feb 20, 2008 9:26am
Hi ,
I have a question if somebody could help.I was wondering which Trendline here is more reliable?

TL NO.2 the horizental Green one or NO.1(Orange)which is drawn from left low to right high?

Thanks
Mike
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #11,982
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:37am Feb 20, 2008 9:37am
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File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 20 Feb2008.zip   814 KB | 905 downloads
  • #11,983
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:38am Feb 20, 2008 9:38am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Yesterday was bad trading on my part, I did make a few pips but I really screwed up on my money management. For now on I am going to try to take 20-25 on 1/2 and put the stop @ 20-25 above cost so if I get stopped out I am BE. Yesterday I took a few off at 20-25 then put stop @ cost and got stopped out then it ran, I think yesterday was not the norm but if I managed the trades better I would be about +130ish on all lots today not +10. Any other ideas on how everyone manages the trades?
well.. look my domb friend how managed his account.he bought gold yesterday at 920$(the vertical line on chart) with one minilot and he didnt closed it when he was +100 pips and the result is -11$ LOSS i told him at least lock your position on +50 or something and he said NO!!! i'll keep it to 1000$ and u see the result.
i think its very important to not to be eager and manage it wisely and ur completely right if u "try to take 20-25 on 1/2 and put the stop @ 20-25 above cost so if I get stopped out I am BE"
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  • #11,984
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:45am Feb 20, 2008 9:45am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Yesterday was bad trading on my part, I did make a few pips but I really screwed up on my money management. For now on I am going to try to take 20-25 on 1/2 and put the stop @ 20-25 above cost so if I get stopped out I am BE. Yesterday I took a few off at 20-25 then put stop @ cost and got stopped out then it ran, I think yesterday was not the norm but if I managed the trades better I would be about +130ish on all lots today not +10. Any other ideas on how everyone manages the trades?

I manage my trades in pretty much the same way, but feel happy about it!!

I had the view that if I took partial profits as they became available at strategic points (i.e. where price could be reasonably expected to reverse / significantly retrace), and move my SL to BE, then I'm risking nothing once the trade has moved in my favour. If my SL was taken out at the BE point and I only had a small portion left running, so be it. I can always re-enter if the trade is still valid.

I think that when I get my account back into the black, I will be more confident at leaving the SL in place for longer. It's always put in a place that says retracement beyond here is a sign that the trade is no longer valid, so, in theory, there's no need to move it up until a new point of validity becomes established as a result of a hefty move in the anticipated direction.

I know you are light years ahead of me in this business, and my opinion is probably peanuts to you, but it amused me that you were upset at doing something that made me pleased with myself! So I'll be very interested too in other people's opinion on this matter, 'cos if you think it's a rubbish method of MM, then it quite probably is!
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #11,985
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:46am Feb 20, 2008 9:46am
There is a lot of bullish pressure building on the JPYUSD (see rising wicks). Looks like it's going to take another shot at the resistance line (108.20).
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  • #11,986
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:51am Feb 20, 2008 9:51am
Quoting mike1349
Hi ,
I have a question if somebody could help.I was wondering which Trendline here is more reliable?

TL NO.2 the horizental Green one or NO.1(Orange)which is drawn from left low to right high?

Thanks
Mike
Mike, it depends how long-term your horizontal one is and how far your L-R goes. History should tell you how many times each has come into play and how much price has stalled at each. But in the end, it is only time that will tell you which is the more reliable.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #11,987
  • Feb 20, 2008 9:57am Feb 20, 2008 9:57am
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  • #11,988
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:03am Feb 20, 2008 10:03am
Looks like GBP/USD setting up for long. Just need to wait and see until the close of the candle just opened.
Never enter a Trade without a STOP LOSS
  • #11,989
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:18am Feb 20, 2008 10:18am
My chart doesn't confirm a CT on the Pound.
It MAY retrace a bit, but look at the motion of the down move. Recently, has moved sideways before resuming the trend instead of retracing (see chart). I wouldn't discount those trends. Also keep in mind that the BOL announced a rate cut, and GB fights rate cuts tooth and nail. Sorry for the Fundamental talk, but it should be taken into consideration given it's importance.
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  • #11,990
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:20am Feb 20, 2008 10:20am
I agree on this one...200SMA is holding, market moving =/- on the 21. Wait for the break out trade (maybe catch it), or safer bet would to catch a TC after the break....

WOW 800 pages, congrats to Phil and to all the members who make this thread so great!!


Quoting Hookem28
There is a lot of bullish pressure building on the JPYUSD (see rising wicks). Looks like it's going to take another shot at the resistance line (108.20).
  • #11,991
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:44am Feb 20, 2008 10:44am
Quoting mike1349
Hi ,
I have a question if somebody could help.I was wondering which Trendline here is more reliable?

TL NO.2 the horizental Green one or NO.1(Orange)which is drawn from left low to right high?

Thanks
Mike
hi mike
this is my TL u see on chart .actually there are alot of TLs we can draw ,but i think the more reliable (as u said) is this and this is just because of my experience and i really havent any idea about whythis is the best.
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  • #11,992
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:47am Feb 20, 2008 10:47am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Yesterday was bad trading on my part, I did make a few pips but I really screwed up on my money management. For now on I am going to try to take 20-25 on 1/2 and put the stop @ 20-25 above cost so if I get stopped out I am BE. Yesterday I took a few off at 20-25 then put stop @ cost and got stopped out then it ran, I think yesterday was not the norm but if I managed the trades better I would be about +130ish on all lots today not +10. Any other ideas on how everyone manages the trades?
I've been working on coming up with a good trade management system as well. It's kind of complicated but can be easily programmed. Here is an example of what I have so far.

Original Order
TP: 1.4500
Entry: 1.4400
SL: 1.4300
Lots: 2

We treat 50% of the Final TP (1.4500, 100 pips) as a separate TP level on a separate order, instead of 1 order with 2 lots, we have 2 orders each with 1 lot. So:

Order #1-- (Original Order)
TP: 1.4500
Entry: 1.4400
SL: 1.4300
Lots: 1

Order #2-- (Sub Order)
TP: 1.4450
Entry: 1.4400
SL: 1.4300
Lots: 1

Order #2 Management
If price reaches 1.4425 (50% of TP), we move SL to BE. (overall risk reduced from $2000 to $1000) If price reaches 1.4445 (90% of TP), we set a trailing stop 5 pips (10% of TP) below the current price. (most we can lose now, both trades total is $600 instead of $2000)

Order #1 Management
If price reaches 1.4450 (50% of TP), we move SL to BE. (worse case now, we exit with $450 profit) If price reaches 1.4490 (90% of TP), we set a trailing stop 10 pips (10% of TP) below the current price. (if Order #2 wasn't stopped out, we safely reached 90% of our Final TP with 2 lots instead of 1)

The idea behind this is to not limit your profits. The TP levels are written down so we can make our percentage calculations but they are not placed with the order. If you normally move your SL to BE and close half your position when price reaches 50% of your Final TP level... why not risk a couple pips to keep that half position in a little longer, after all you do anticipate price to reach your final TP target.

Also, I like the TS at 90% of the TP level because our TP targets are general areas, not exact to the pip. This will protect us some in case it doesn't quite reach the target and gives us room should the price exceed your TP target.

It's not quite there, I haven't worked out what to do if you have multiple original TP targets and if your TP target is too small. But it's an idea and I'm interested in expanding on it. So give me some feedback and let me know how you would improve on it.
  • #11,993
  • Feb 20, 2008 10:50am Feb 20, 2008 10:50am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Info
Quick tip if you have multiple monitors connected to your computer like myself - when you are going to press print screen, click the Metatrader text at the top of the window (so that metatrader is in focus) and do the following:

Hold down 'Ctrl' and 'Alt' and press 'Print Screen' & release all at once! This will give you just a print screen image of the selected program NOT the whole screen.

Cheers
  • #11,994
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:09am Feb 20, 2008 11:09am
Quoting nvkx21
I've been working on coming up with a good trade management system as well. It's kind of complicated but can be easily programmed. Here is an example of what I have so far.

Original Order
TP: 1.4500
Entry: 1.4400
SL: 1.4300
Lots: 2

We treat 50% of the Final TP (1.4500, 100 pips) as a separate TP level on a separate order, instead of 1 order with 2 lots, we have 2 orders each with 1 lot. So:

Order #1-- (Original Order)
TP: 1.4500
Entry: 1.4400
SL: 1.4300
Lots: 1

Order #2-- (Sub Order)
TP: 1.4450
Entry: 1.4400
SL: 1.4300
Lots: 1

Order #2 Management
If price reaches 1.4425 (50% of TP), we move SL to BE. (overall risk reduced from $2000 to $1000) If price reaches 1.4445 (90% of TP), we set a trailing stop 5 pips (10% of TP) below the current price. (most we can lose now, both trades total is $600 instead of $2000)

Order #1 Management
If price reaches 1.4450 (50% of TP), we move SL to BE. (worse case now, we exit with $450 profit) If price reaches 1.4490 (90% of TP), we set a trailing stop 10 pips (10% of TP) below the current price. (if Order #2 wasn't stopped out, we safely reached 90% of our Final TP with 2 lots instead of 1)

The idea behind this is to not limit your profits. The TP levels are written down so we can make our percentage calculations but they are not placed with the order. If you normally move your SL to BE and close half your position when price reaches 50% of your Final TP level... why not risk a couple pips to keep that half position in a little longer, after all you do anticipate price to reach your final TP target.

Also, I like the TS at 90% of the TP level because our TP targets are general areas, not exact to the pip. This will protect us some in case it doesn't quite reach the target and gives us room should the price exceed your TP target.

It's not quite there, I haven't worked out what to do if you have multiple original TP targets and if your TP target is too small. But it's an idea and I'm interested in expanding on it. So give me some feedback and let me know how you would improve on it.

I like this a lot. I really need to write it down and work the numbers but one think I see a lot of is if you are wrong most of the time price will still get you +20-25 so you can make something even if wrong. What else I am thinking about is about 50-60% of all trade will go against you a little before they take off. If you enter at say .500 and your are long with a stop at say .450 so a 50 pip stop, you could put a buy order in around .475 and use the same stop, this will give you a stop of 50 and 25 and once it starts moving out you could close +25 one the last one you got into. I am going to work on stacking something like that.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,995
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:25am Feb 20, 2008 11:25am
Wow is anyone else watching this late run. The dollar is getting weaker on all its pairs. I'm looking for a entry but worried about it be over extended.
  • #11,996
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:28am Feb 20, 2008 11:28am
Phillip mentioned patience again and again,
in the new mp3, he said that James16 thread was very good,
and I would post a chart and some comments found in James16 thread that helped me a lot.
enjoy it!

Remember what I said about not standing in the open with a shotgun. Successful traders hide in the bushes with a rifle. The A trades happen more than you might think. A patient trader could wait for just these trades and be rich in a coupe of years.
If I accomplish one thing with this thread it would be making new traders understand that you don't look for reason to trade. You look for reason not to trade. By having that mind, you eventually reach a point that when you do pull the trigger, the emotion is gone and you have confidence in what you are doing.
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Success is the small sum of efforts, repeated day in and day out.
  • #11,997
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:45am Feb 20, 2008 11:45am
Quoting dhalsim
Phillip mentioned patience again and again,
in the new mp3, he said that James16 thread was very good,
and I would post a chart and some comments found in James16 thread that helped me a lot.
enjoy it!

Remember what I said about not standing in the open with a shotgun. Successful traders hide in the bushes with a rifle. The A trades happen more than you might think. A patient trader could wait for just these trades and be rich in a coupe of years.
If I accomplish one thing with this thread it would be making new traders understand that you don't look for reason to trade. You look for reason not to trade. By having that mind, you eventually reach a point that when you do pull the trigger, the emotion is gone and you have confidence in what you are doing.
Very good point. I WILL not counter trend trade GBPUSD because the market motion has told me that it most likely will trade sideways before continuing the trend. I just wait for the breakout of the lateral move. The Euro has been trending up in a wave pattern that allows for cautious CT trades, though I prefer TCs.
The retracements on the Euro are marked with arrows. I shaded the lateral GBP moves.
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  • #11,998
  • Feb 20, 2008 11:52am Feb 20, 2008 11:52am
Ive been looking at the charts on all time frames for some time and have decided that the price action is always following the rules of the rhythm on SOME timeframe......was just looking at the usd jpy....heres the 4 hr...

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Why is it having such a hard time going down? Yes the 200 is in the way of the 89.....but wheres the rhythm?


Have a look at the daily to give you an idea of what is going on with the 4hr........

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Behold! Rhythm! Look at how the price has crossed inside the 21..... and bounced.....now where too? Thats right ...you know the answer.......the 89.
However and this is important. There are two ways that can happen. The price can go up to 89 and get it over with in a hurry, or.......the price can go nowhere for days and let the 89 come to it......wonder which it will be?
At any rate, Im not going to be real quick to jump on a short position for any length of time.....

Pipip......Jimdandy
  • #11,999
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:04pm Feb 20, 2008 12:04pm
Great post and a message that needs repeating. I didn't like the set-up on the 5M so decided not to enter. In the past, I would have but I've been burned more times then I care to tell ya. It gets so frustrating when there is a 100+ pip movement and you end up with a loss. Glad it I didn't jump in. There's hope for me yet.

Quoting dhalsim
Phillip mentioned patience again and again,
in the new mp3, he said that James16 thread was very good,
and I would post a chart and some comments found in James16 thread that helped me a lot.
enjoy it!

Remember what I said about not standing in the open with a shotgun. Successful traders hide in the bushes with a rifle. The A trades happen more than you might think. A patient trader could wait for just these trades and be rich in a coupe of years.
If I accomplish one thing with this thread it would be making new traders understand that you don't look for reason to trade. You look for reason not to trade. By having that mind, you eventually reach a point that when you do pull the trigger, the emotion is gone and you have confidence in what you are doing.
  • #12,000
  • Feb 20, 2008 12:07pm Feb 20, 2008 12:07pm
Could someone post the page number and the post number for this James16 thread...looked on page 1&2 didn't see it...

Quoting Bag Lady
Here is the transcript for the audio file in the discussion thread as mentioned in my previous post. It's a great MP3 (as they all are!) but is especially good for those of us new to forex, and a reminder of the core principles of this strategy.

Hope it reads ok - I've got the latest word package and for some reason the file size is nearly 3 times the size when saved in the old format, and the new one came up as invalid! Please let me know if there are any problems with it.
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