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Drawing correct resistance and support-lines

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  • #61
  • Feb 17, 2008 7:29pm Feb 17, 2008 7:29pm
I suspect Cable will rise today. Very strong support at 1.9550 I don't think it will manage to break it.
Look for an upside break out of this pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm5-02-18-2008--0225.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #62
  • Feb 17, 2008 8:00pm Feb 17, 2008 8:00pm
Quoting aediaz1
I would recommend higher time-frames if you are new. Lower time-frames can be very choppy, and this trend-lines are more reliable in higher times-frames.
Also, try remove your automatic drawing-indicator , it could be nice training for you to apply them yourself, you have the instruction above
I thought aediaz1 has tought us to use higher time frames, if you are new.
  • #63
  • Edited 10:17pm Feb 17, 2008 9:05pm | Edited 10:17pm
Quoting MarkGavalda
I suspect Cable will rise today. Very strong support at 1.9550 I don't think it will manage to break it.
Look for an upside break out of this pattern.
Thanks aediaz1 for this great thread and everyone to share their views & charts here. I started recently learning to trade "naked" mainly with S/R levels, patterns etc.

Hey Mark, the cable looks to form a reversal on a minor downside trend. Look even better if it can stand above 1.9600-1.9613. Sometime I can't determine if I should enter before (above 1.9580) or after these level (above 1.9600/13). Both seem to have pros and cons. Below is a M5.

http://i263.photobucket.com/albums/i...D_20080218.jpg
  • #64
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:38pm Feb 17, 2008 9:38pm
aediaz1, what do u think about my lines?

those rectangles is the possible targets.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjlingam.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #65
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:20pm Feb 17, 2008 10:20pm
Quoting MPP
Just found this thread today - hector is also known as WTB here of FF, great trader.
He is a skilled trader, no doubt, and I have seen alot of he's trading videos.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #66
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:24pm Feb 17, 2008 10:24pm
Quoting hijackxx
I thought aediaz1 has tought us to use higher time frames, if you are new.
No problem using lower time-frames as long as you correlate with higher TF's.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #67
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:34pm Feb 17, 2008 10:34pm
Quoting sepak.orang
aediaz1, what do u think about my lines?

those rectangles is the possible targets.

Attachment
I'm expecting gbp to strengthen according to my charts, but not 100% sure yet. Everything can happen.

I'll try post a comment if momentum changes
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp12.gif Size: 28 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #68
  • Feb 17, 2008 10:38pm Feb 17, 2008 10:38pm
Quoting MarkGavalda
I suspect Cable will rise today. Very strong support at 1.9550 I don't think it will manage to break it.
Look for an upside break out of this pattern.
Hey, I missed that 1.9550 is already a very good support, at least for the short chart. I think one should have entered at 1.9580 and look for testing at 1.9600/13, taking profit before them or seeing if it can really breakup. My bad.:
  • #69
  • Feb 18, 2008 12:54am Feb 18, 2008 12:54am
Mark, if you look at longer tfs, like 1H, then you'll notice that the supporting tl has broken, and we are likely to see some down movement, maybe to Daily Short Target1, which is also 61 fib retracement level. Daily pivot might be a good level to go short, if price will get there today?

But yes, a long position on 5M chart would have brought you some pips.

R

PS. Thanks for a nice thread aediaz1.

Quoting MarkGavalda
I suspect Cable will rise today. Very strong support at 1.9550 I don't think it will manage to break it.
Look for an upside break out of this pattern.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu now.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #70
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:21am Feb 18, 2008 2:21am
Rocroy very good analysis it went exactly up to the Pivot and started falling like a rock! I got +50pips from that upward movement and I got nothing (yet) from the fall because I really didn't think it will get down this fast. I underestimated the bears today.
Now that was a huge mistake because every "good" support was broken on the first try...
  • #71
  • Edited 5:50am Feb 18, 2008 5:14am | Edited 5:50am
Well done guys ! Keep it up !

Edit:still more bears in gbp/jpy ? Done a 50% retracement now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.gif Size: 30 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #72
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:26am Feb 18, 2008 7:26am
Quoting aediaz1
Well done guys ! Keep it up !

Edit:still more bears in gbp/jpy ? Done a 50% retracement now.
The one before the last sign "HH" shouldn't be "LH" instead on your chart? It wasn't a higher high...
  • #73
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:39am Feb 18, 2008 7:39am
Quoting MarkGavalda
The one before the last sign "HH" shouldn't be "LH" instead on your chart? It wasn't a higher high...
You are right on your statement, I should have clarified it; I saw that just as a correction of this bullrun, and that we would continue the upward trend. That's why I put a HH on a bar that looking on a larger time-frame really not is a HH. Not part of any trading-system, only a guidance for myself
Measure twice, cut once
  • #74
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:42am Feb 18, 2008 7:42am
The candlesticks can tell you a lot of things about the current market sentiment and it's crucial to use them. However today was a good proof of that they should be taken with a grain of salt because the market can easily override rules.

As you can see the Cable was rising today exactly up to the daily pivot line and made a shooting star candle on the top of the movement. A reversal sign at a pivot line is a killer combination and it's a very high probability trade you can take anytime.
The price started to fall and only got stopped by the daily S2 pivot line and made 3(!) reversal candles on the hourly then later still fell more. I have seen so many situations like this that I had to come to the conclusion this is happening because bears are so powerful and a new trend is forming or an old one resuming. It's Monday and the lazy institutional traders get into the office see the charts and immediately say "oh my god wtf just happened with the cable?? hey guys this is definitely falling we should dump 30mio immediately..." and these guys don't really care about candlesticks, etc they have a "consider bearish" zone to calculate with and they have positions for months so they really don't care about 30-40points when entering.
And don't let me get started on stop hunters (against the counter trend traders now, who thought the fall has ended already) and the late comers etc.

So the point is, take extra caution when counter-trading these situations.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm5-02-18-2008--1425.jpg Size: 201 KB
  • #75
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:39pm Feb 18, 2008 6:39pm
Yet another megaphone ( ) on the GBP/USD M5 charts. The longer term TFs suggest a break to the downside... We'll see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm5-02-19-2008--0125.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #76
  • Edited Feb 19, 2008 12:00am Feb 18, 2008 11:27pm | Edited Feb 19, 2008 12:00am
I'm still short, because UJ is finally making a move down... If UJ moves down to supporting tl, that would mean about 250 pips for GJ, which would take GJ back to that lower tl again. But you'll never know...

There also might be a good spot to short EJ now? Perhaps not yet, euro seems to be too strong...

Quoting aediaz1
Well done guys ! Keep it up !

Edit:still more bears in gbp/jpy ? Done a 50% retracement now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj now1.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #77
  • Edited 3:01am Feb 19, 2008 2:38am | Edited 3:01am
If London pivot holds short should be safe for now. Expecting guppy to channel down today but market seems abit slow right now. No big news neither.


Edit: Alot of selling around London pivot, I have gotten the PA I was looking for. Expecting price to hit support-line in short time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.gif Size: 27 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #78
  • Feb 19, 2008 3:10am Feb 19, 2008 3:10am
Good enough for me. A 65+ pip movement in no-time.I still think this could move down but I'm not willing to risk my pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.gif Size: 28 KB
Measure twice, cut once
  • #79
  • Feb 19, 2008 3:13am Feb 19, 2008 3:13am
Quoting Rocroy
I'm still short, because UJ is finally making a move down... If UJ moves down to supporting tl, that would mean about 250 pips for GJ, which would take GJ back to that lower tl again. But you'll never know...

There also might be a good spot to short EJ now? Perhaps not yet, euro seems to be too strong...



Attachment
Hope you had your short through this fall ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #80
  • Edited 3:43am Feb 19, 2008 3:22am | Edited 3:43am
Quoting MarkGavalda
Yet another megaphone ( ) on the GBP/USD M5 charts. The longer term TFs suggest a break to the downside... We'll see.

Tempted for a long on gbpusd. If it falls abit more down to support and I get the price I'm looking for. You still favor a break ?


Edit: Never mind, just look at the PA. Too much selling. Calling that long off. Doesn't matter if it goes up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.gif Size: 30 KB
Measure twice, cut once
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