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AUD/USD

  • #121
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:50am Feb 18, 2008 6:50am
anyone still holding shorts? this thing may make a u-turn after many stop loss is hit. many trader will be angry.
  • #122
  • Feb 18, 2008 6:55am Feb 18, 2008 6:55am
im holding shorts.. a bit frustrating though.

Quoting mry2001
anyone still holding shorts? this thing may make a u-turn after many stop loss is hit. many trader will be angry.
  • #123
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:01am Feb 18, 2008 7:01am
Quoting Umairs2004
Ya thats it ... Its US Holiday today... Thats why AUD/USD is not showing some momentum today...
Lack of liquidity in the markets does affect things, whether this pair goes north or south will definitely be helped by increased action. That's just factual.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #124
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:02am Feb 18, 2008 7:02am
...i smell a reversal tomorrow...baby.......
so if u missed it today...you'll probably get on board 2morrow.......
  • #125
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:59am Feb 18, 2008 7:59am
Quoting Umairs2004
I dont trade on EURO/AUD... But according to my analysis it was in no position to go long at last friday night... even i was sure on that time that this pair was in a position to go short. Coz i was 100% Sure to go short as i believe at my own analysis.. that's why i said to you at the end of week that wht make's you to go long on this pair and ask's the screenshot of your analysis. Coz i wana compare your analysis with my own.... Now see this pair drop's more then +100 Pips...
I told you why, unfortunately in the short term I was incorrect in thinking EUR would be stronger. But since I trade longer time frames, 100 pips does not worry me. I admit, however, AUD strength caught me off guard. The week isn't over yet. I am piecing into my position and think this one is nearing a bottom.

What's your analysis? And why didn't you short?
  • #126
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:22am Feb 18, 2008 8:22am
AUDUSD relentlessly finding support on hourly. What will it take to break support and open the floodgates? My interpretation is although Aussie has had a lot of AUD bullish news come out, it seems it's for all the wrong reasons.

They keep raising interest to combat inflation. Good for the currency on the surface, but inflation itself is not.

Unemployment at 4.8, but only due to a lack of workers, not so much due to growth. In fact the lack of workers is stifling growth.

A decreasing growth forecast on GDP (since 2001) combined with the above facts says Aussiland is perched precariously on econmic stability.

The news today that they plan to limit foreign investment will not help AUD either.

EURAUD has a mind of it's own, but generally it will trend opposite AUDUSD. Looking back on charts 1.60 on EURAUD seems very cheap. Indicators still show AUDUSD over extended to the topside and EURAUD oversold. Granted they can continue in their pattern for who knows how long, but eventually something will have to give. Optimistically it will be substantial.


Edit: Also, why no news coverage of Aussie bank today announcing 1 billion (that substantial in their smallish economy) in subprime writedowns? News about how raising interest rates are pushing Aussie home owners out of their homes. And how Australian housing prices are still off the charts when compared to income.
  • #127
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:52am Feb 18, 2008 8:52am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I told you why, unfortunately in the short term I was incorrect in thinking EUR would be stronger. But since I trade longer time frames, 100 pips does not worry me. I admit, however, AUD strength caught me off guard. The week isn't over yet. I am piecing into my position and think this one is nearing a bottom.

What's your analysis? And why didn't you short?
I dont like this pair's movement , High spread, GJ is my favourate trading pair if i choose a pair with high spread then im Happy with GJ as hight spread but great volatality, watch my previous post of GJ in this thread with it's screenshot as it was my winning trade and also im a day trader, 100 Pips drop down have a great meaning in front of me, Coz My SL is just -40 Pips in All Jpy's and -30 Pips in all Other's...
See Screen shot's of Euro/Aud 30-Minute's , 4-Hour & weekly also reason in detail is in screenshot's ...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: e--aud 4-hour.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: e--aud weekly.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #128
  • Feb 18, 2008 9:36am Feb 18, 2008 9:36am
buyers running out of gas?

http://keefermedia.com/content/firstchink.jpg
  • #129
  • Feb 18, 2008 10:36am Feb 18, 2008 10:36am
Here's my 2 cents:

The break above 9100 invalidated an inverse H&s and opens the door to a retest of 9400.

The subsequent drop to 9100 and bounce off is bullish.

I would agree there are fundamental problems with the Australian economy, but does that make Aud/Usd a good short IMO? Nope

Just one traders opinion. Be nimble and be profitable.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #130
  • Feb 18, 2008 10:46am Feb 18, 2008 10:46am
Quoting TexasforEX
Here's my 2 cents:

The break above 9100 invalidated an inverse H&s and opens the door to a retest of 9400.

The subsequent drop to 9100 and bounce off is bullish.

I would agree there are fundamental problems with the Australian economy, but does that make Aud/Usd a good short IMO? Nope

Just one traders opinion. Be nimble and be profitable.
Kind of depends on commodity prices, perhaps?

No worries, mate.
  • #131
  • Feb 18, 2008 10:49am Feb 18, 2008 10:49am
Sure does Ticker.

There is a definite correlation between gold and Aussie.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #132
  • Feb 18, 2008 11:26am Feb 18, 2008 11:26am
Next 15-30 mins should be very telling. BB are tight on the 15 minute, and currently riding the top...
  • #133
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:07pm Feb 18, 2008 7:07pm
Allow me post the RBA minutes analysis to guide your trade whether it maybe short or medium term:

"RBA MINUTES for its Feb 5 meeting, revealed an extremely hawkish bias by the Board in which members were in fact tossing up whether to hike rates by a more aggressive 50bps on the grounds that the inflation outlook had deteriorated and the risk of inflation expectations becoming dislodged had increased. At the end the Board judged that the case for the 25 basis point rise was, at this time, the more persuasive. However, it noted the judgement was "finely balanced" and that the Board would continue to review whether policy was sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the 2-3% target within a reasonable period. From the clearly hawkish minutes, it looks now without a doubt that rates are rising further in March, and if the inflation situation fails to improve, an aggressive hike could well be on the cards."
  • #134
  • Feb 18, 2008 7:31pm Feb 18, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting ctsfather
First posting here, i trade AUD/USD and AUS/JPY. Big session coming up in Europe, the employment data is surprisingly strong and we have a surge to 90.25, yesterday we saw bears have a picnic and it hit lows of 89.23, now i understand the bears argument but i am not sure they running this show general USD strength from EUR and GBP has to be countered from the AUS/JPY demand. As long as the equities recover then AUS/JPY rise has to come from somewhere, right now its coming from USD/JPY but when that runs into offers then the easiest place for the bulls is the AUD/USD. This latest fall from 90.85 just a lucky set of techs, sentiment and speculation. The fact is the trend is super strong and waiting for a reason to go up and reap the carry. To say carry trade is dead is to say greed is dead, prediction within week AUD/USD 91.50 AUD/JPY 100. With the US retail sales, JPY GDP ^ and strong AUS employment, i say its on like donkey kong starting this session in europe looking for AUD/USD 91 and AUS/JPY 98.50 try to get in on any dips AUD/USD 90.10-20 and AUD/JPY 97.40-50
there will be rumbling of corporate exchange rate pain if it continues much more, how will it pan out though. It really is down to stability in equity markets, without some economic bombs there is not much going to stop the aussie, that being said AUS/JPY i would not only take profit at 100 but put in a reversal, if they going to make a move against the aussie it would happen here historically its being amazing reversal point short AUS/JPY 100 tight stop 100.50, target 99. This is very much against trend and if 109 usd/jpy pops we are looking at a run up to 107 on aus/jpy once again. Not sure what ratio but probable usd/jpy 114(toyotas forecast) and aussie 93. side note excellent short is our friend NZD/USD short at .80 or near .80 they are much more interventionist then aussie, target 78 stop 81.
  • #135
  • Feb 19, 2008 4:07am Feb 19, 2008 4:07am
China's inflation is also at a threatening high level:

Quote
China's Inflation Quickens to Fastest in 11 Years
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation accelerated to the quickest pace in more than 11 years after the worst snowstorms in half a century disrupted food supplies.


Consumer prices rose 7.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today, after gaining 6.5 percent in December. That was more than the 7 percent median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Food prices soared 18 percent after blizzards paralyzed transport systems and destroyed crops. The government faces the challenge of curbing inflation without derailing the expansion of the world's fastest-growing major economy.


"Inflation is likely to have further legs to run even after the snowstorm effects subside because of fast growth in money supply,'' said Liang Hong, senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong. February's rate "might even get close to double-digit levels.''
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #136
  • Feb 19, 2008 4:52am Feb 19, 2008 4:52am
Finnaly upper line of channel is broke +55 Pips upmovement yet in my 30-Minutes chart's analysis (See My Post No 116 of this thread in which i have pasted this channel's screenshot also) as im a day trader but see the weekly chart also SSTO is heading towards overbought region...So wht's next let's see...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: aud.usd channel--weekly.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #137
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:00am Feb 19, 2008 6:00am
ok - bets on when profit taking starts. see trend is when AUD starts climbing fast it starts it's retreat just as quick. The big guys know this thing is way overvalued.
  • #138
  • Feb 19, 2008 9:27am Feb 19, 2008 9:27am
im hoping for some sort of short opportunity. this thing is way over valued.
  • #139
  • Feb 19, 2008 11:00am Feb 19, 2008 11:00am
Did anybody see this pair going short? let me know your views.........
Just remember, when you think all is lost, the future remains
  • #140
  • Feb 19, 2008 11:16am Feb 19, 2008 11:16am
Quoting freddylek
Did anybody see this pair going short? let me know your views.........
You have missed to enter at short term trade at 0.9214 for more see screenshot no-1 ... now see ssto already in a oversold region maybe take some reverse movement but im expecting this pair to drop more if it break's the lower line of trendline in 4-Hour chart and ssto is in its favour and if it did then good bearish movement maybe seen...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au2.GIF Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au3.GIF Size: 23 KB
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