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Transition from Losing to Winning

  • #101
  • Feb 2, 2008 6:18am Feb 2, 2008 6:18am
Looking over my stats, I see that I have never made money on the last trading day of the month.

I'm not sure what value my stats back before November have, since I was always doing different things, however, I will always be cautious during the last week, and will probably take the last day off from now on.
  • #102
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:52am Feb 3, 2008 10:52am
Quoting blueruby
Looking over my stats, I see that I have never made money on the last trading day of the month.

I'm not sure what value my stats back before November have, since I was always doing different things, however, I will always be cautious during the last week, and will probably take the last day off from now on.
Well done for turning your trading around. I hope you continue to prosper.
Although one should only trade when they are in optimum condition, and if you feel fatigue or simply do not want to trade on the last day of the month then thats fine. However, you should not take the last day off for fear of a loss. As long as you take a trade based on your system then the outcome of the trade is immaterial. Remember its one in a series of many many trades. You will always have winners and losers.
Good Luck anyway.
  • #103
  • Feb 3, 2008 3:19pm Feb 3, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting zones
Well done for turning your trading around. I hope you continue to prosper.
Although one should only trade when they are in optimum condition, and if you feel fatigue or simply do not want to trade on the last day of the month then thats fine. However, you should not take the last day off for fear of a loss. As long as you take a trade based on your system then the outcome of the trade is immaterial. Remember its one in a series of many many trades. You will always have winners and losers.
Good Luck anyway.
On the last day of the month, many times banks or big traders want to clear positions for whatever reason, so the market can be more unpredictable. This is more true during the last day or two of the quarter, and I usually stay out. Under no circumstances will I ever trade between Dec 23 and New Year's Day (end of year).
  • #104
  • Feb 6, 2008 3:31am Feb 6, 2008 3:31am
Yesterday I felt good, really good. That might not seem significant to you, but let me tell you, it is. It's the first time I've felt like myself in years. Until I got it lifted off, I hadn't realized there was this dark cloud of stress over me.

It has to do with several things, one of which was upping my account. Not due to blowout this time, but due to the fact that I am trading well and am now ready to make more money.

They say your first million is the hardest, well, haha, I'm measuring my forex gains in the 100's. My account hit $582 on Dec 3. It hit $682 in late Jan. So there was my first $100 made in Forex! That was a milestone!

I quadrupled my account. Now I should be making $100 per week. At the end of February, I'll add more money. I'm really looking forward to that, I'm glad Feb is a short month!

So now I can start to see an actual income from this, and I'm less stressed.
  • #105
  • Feb 17, 2008 6:09pm Feb 17, 2008 6:09pm
Quoting blueruby
Yesterday I felt good, really good. That might not seem significant to you, but let me tell you, it is. It's the first time I've felt like myself in years. Until I got it lifted off, I hadn't realized there was this dark cloud of stress over me.

It has to do with several things, one of which was upping my account. Not due to blowout this time, but due to the fact that I am trading well and am now ready to make more money.

They say your first million is the hardest, well, haha, I'm measuring my forex gains in the 100's. My account hit $582 on Dec 3. It hit $682 in late Jan. So there was my first $100 made in Forex! That was a milestone!

I quadrupled my account. Now I should be making $100 per week. At the end of February, I'll add more money. I'm really looking forward to that, I'm glad Feb is a short month!

So now I can start to see an actual income from this, and I'm less stressed.
Hi BlueRuby,
Well done, it is good to see that soembody who deserves some success is finally getting it. I gues that hard part now will be to keep focus and not blow it by doing something stupid (AKA gambling).
I have not seen you in Skunny's thread since December, have you given up on the moley quail through Fibs and Gann lines?
May I ask if you had any success with the JohnW style scalping? From some of your posts, it seems that that style is psychologically difficult for you.

I am still looking for something that works for me - my available time, my personality and my resources. Jacko style seemed pretty good for me for a while, but I missed the big AH win between Xmas and New year (was away and didn't like to leave the order with no way of trailing the SL), so December up to present have been hard to take.

Hope to see you in some FF threads,
Ian
  • #106
  • Feb 17, 2008 9:50pm Feb 17, 2008 9:50pm
Way to go... !!! 100s will turn into 1000s.... and can happen quckly too if you are careful.... !!! Be more careful than me...

Quoting blueruby
Yesterday I felt good, really good. That might not seem significant to you, but let me tell you, it is. It's the first time I've felt like myself in years. Until I got it lifted off, I hadn't realized there was this dark cloud of stress over me.

It has to do with several things, one of which was upping my account. Not due to blowout this time, but due to the fact that I am trading well and am now ready to make more money.

They say your first million is the hardest, well, haha, I'm measuring my forex gains in the 100's. My account hit $582 on Dec 3. It hit $682 in late Jan. So there was my first $100 made in Forex! That was a milestone!

I quadrupled my account. Now I should be making $100 per week. At the end of February, I'll add more money. I'm really looking forward to that, I'm glad Feb is a short month!

So now I can start to see an actual income from this, and I'm less stressed.
  • #107
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:26am Feb 18, 2008 8:26am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi BlueRuby,
Well done, it is good to see that soembody who deserves some success is finally getting it. I gues that hard part now will be to keep focus and not blow it by doing something stupid (AKA gambling).
I have not seen you in Skunny's thread since December, have you given up on the moley quail through Fibs and Gann lines?
May I ask if you had any success with the JohnW style scalping? From some of your posts, it seems that that style is psychologically difficult for you.

I am still looking for something that works for me - my available time, my personality and my resources. Jacko style seemed pretty good for me for a while, but I missed the big AH win between Xmas and New year (was away and didn't like to leave the order with no way of trailing the SL), so December up to present have been hard to take.

Hope to see you in some FF threads,
Ian
Thanks, Ian. I think we all deserve success.

I don't have a discipline problem, in fact, this month, discipline has been my problem. I stuck to my rules and it has cost me dearly. Seems if you wait for a closed candle, it's too late. All the moves that would have made my week last week I was ready to jump on, told myself "wait", and watched them run away. I haven't made profits for 3 weeks and am distressed.

So I'm re-thinking confirmation. The market tips its hand in more ways than one, closed candles aren't the only way.

I believe a good trader has rules; a great trader knows when to break them.

I don't have enough confidence in fibs to trade them, and don't believe 300 pip drawdowns are "OK". Also, if a support or resistance is pierced but it doesn't hold, that's a strong signal to trade the other direction, not enter in the direction of the breach.

John's method would have worked out really well over the last couple weeks. I don't enter on stops, only closed candles; you're right, I can't just leave it on autopilot and walk away.

I didn't trade at all between Christmas and New Years, so I missed all the moves then, too. I've been taught that it's a bad time to trade, just like the end of month and end of quarter. Big traders want to get flat and the weather can turn nasty without warning.

I would suggest you put together a list for yourself of "what works". I think that helped me turn the corner (if I've turned it... I'm wondering a little now, but the month isn't over yet.)

  • #108
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:30am Feb 18, 2008 8:30am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Way to go... !!! 100s will turn into 1000s.... and can happen quckly too if you are careful.... !!! Be more careful than me...
I'm too careful, that can be a problem too. Not making any money, lost last week because I followed my rules to the letter.

I need to go back and review winning trades and see how many of those were "jump in" instead of waiting for the candle to close.

Sometimes perception isn't the real thing. The times I jumped in and it went bad, I remember well due to the pain, thinking, "I should have waited."

The times I jumped in and won, I don't remember at all, though I know there were some.

It could be my perception of what works is skewed.
  • #109
  • Feb 18, 2008 12:35pm Feb 18, 2008 12:35pm
OK, rule modification.

When consumed by a closed candle conundrum, consult the candlestick connoisseur (Steve Nison).

A closed candle is only one type of candlestick pattern. It isn't the only candlestick pattern that can confirm a trade initiation; there are others.
  • #110
  • Feb 26, 2008 8:45am Feb 26, 2008 8:45am
On that "last week of the month" thing, it could be that it's a bad time to trade in general, but more likely I was forcing trades -- trying to get the stats up for the month.

Right now I'm down 3.5% for the month. Not horrendous. Might eke out a small profit for Feb if all goes well. I have controlled my losses, that is good.

Looking over my data, had I limited my daily loss to 2% as I do now, November would have been profitable. So I would have had my first profitable month a month sooner, just from that one rule. December would have been even more profitable.

Had I not traded the day before Thanksgiving, and the last day of the month, I would have been close to profitable for November just by that alone. Both days were big losers -- indicative of a wild, illiquid market, and my continuing to trade to try to recoup losses. I made 9 trades on those two days, only 2 profited.

Other than the last day of November, the last week of the month would have been a good week. Pre-November, my results were not consistent enough to base any conclusion on the data.
  • #111
  • Edited Apr 24, 2008 6:55am Apr 23, 2008 4:40pm | Edited Apr 24, 2008 6:55am
Well, an update is probably overdue, somebody out there might want to know what's going on with me.

Jan was great, as previously mentioned. In Feb, the things I did during Nov, Dec, and Jan did not work anymore. Since then, it's been choppy.

Feb was a small loss. March was near break even.

About a month ago I decided it was time for a change, and sought a job. I start on Monday, and trading will be evenings only for awhile.

When I decided to get a job, I started trading differently. Put on the trade and walk away. Let it play out. This style is necessary when you have a day job. But it has never worked, and still doesn't work for me. I'm at 26% profitable trades for the month of April, and most of those were in profit at least one time, often more than once, and many of them had a nice profit before reversing and hitting the stop. Any other time I'd have taken my profit, that's the only style that has worked for me.....

I suppose since I haven't quit it isn't a failure, but it sure feels like one -- instead of making my financial dreams come true, I go back on the treadmill and my future is quite limited.

I quit my last job in November 2005, because my management was insane and after 2 years in that department (total the previous 9 years with that company were great) I couldn't take it any more. I figured I'd get another job in a week or two, because, honestly, I'm an excellent engineer. The plan, and the backup plan both failed. I'd dabbled in trading for many years so I bought a course, then another, and wound up in forex by Oct 06.

Since then I've lost my house, a paid-for corvette, a vintage ham radio station, one IRA, and now it's either go to work or give up the Rubicon, the icon of my very identity! ENOUGH!

By the way, I've only lost a few thousand dollars at trading. The lack of income is the problem.

I'm not giving up.

I'll be around.

I'll be trading.
  • #112
  • Apr 24, 2008 12:05pm Apr 24, 2008 12:05pm
  •  Kitara
  • | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: This space for rent...call for info | 128 Posts
Hey there...

I have been a long time lurker here at FF for awhile now. I popped into your journal because I wanted to see how progress was going for you. I recognized your Alias because it was your posts that helped me set-up vHands. Thank you for that by the way.

I hope you don't mind me chiming in here, but you sound like you could use some encouragement. I'm sorry to hear about your recent trading progress. I can tell you it took me awhile to start getting consistant profits too.
I started looking into stock trading and forex after I had my first child back in 2004. I didn't want to go back to work! Well, I realized pretty quick that there was a mismatch between my dreams of financial freedom and reality. So back to work I went...

Then in July 2005 I had my 2nd baby. I remember feeding the baby and making forex trades in the middle of the night. 2nd account blowup, lol.

Then in 2006 I decided if other people could do this, then dang it, so could I!! 3rd account blowup. It wasn't until I started trading daily charts and realized that MM really does matter that I found my style. Of course the 4th time around I was a bit smarter and did micro accounts instead of minis. Went from penny trades, to dime trades, to eventually back to dollars.
I have just started to attempt 1hr charts again using Bo's fib style. I haven't quite mastered this, and of course from lessons 1 - 3 I know to do this with penny trades until I can. I'm thinking I should stick to Daily charts though and just live with the fact that good trading really is boring.
I just wanted to let you know that trading forex for income is still possible. It took me 3 full years to finally stop blowing up accounts and learning how to grow them.
I hope you continue on, I enjoy reading your posts. Try longer timeframes if you haven't already. Persistance does usually pay off. I wish you the best of luck.
  • #113
  • Apr 27, 2008 8:08pm Apr 27, 2008 8:08pm
Thanks for the kind words.

I still have tremendous enthusiasm for trading. Maybe getting a job will be the best thing that ever happened to my trading. I'll be forced to go to daily charts.

I don't much care for trading the D1. The stops are wide so the trade is small, then you wait days for a move to make your 1-2 % gain. And you have to wait longer for the trade to play out, so learning is slower.

With a closer stop on the lower timeframes, the trade can be larger, so you get your 1% in minutes or hours. You do have to be a more nimble trader, I'm sure.

I was using the 4H for setups, that's one of the things that's quit working for me. Too many great moves getting away that had setups evident on lower timeframes.

Anyway, I'll get there. Might be a little slower since I have to have a job, but I gotta pay some bills! Including the penalty on that IRA I raided -- I sent in my tax return with no money! I'm sure they'll take plastic.
  • #114
  • Apr 28, 2008 8:22am Apr 28, 2008 8:22am
Blueruby,

I'm glad Kitara chimed in when he did otherwise I might have missed this excellent Journal. I read your first post and it sounded exactly where I am at now. Trying various systems, using all manner of indicators and hocus pocus, thinking Ill stumble across the one indicator that predicts every market move. Ive stopped trading live alltogether for now, until I can demo trade an account to a healthy amount. I just dont see the point in wasting money thinking that I'll hit a home run soon. I to am at a point that you were a year ago, in saying that, one system is all I should trade, and make it my own.. Tweak it where it needs to be tweaked, but follow the basics. I have gained a lot of confidence in reading your entries, regardless of how trading is this month. It means that im on the right track, even if it does take another year, so be it. The market will always be there. Its refreshing to know that the evolution of a trader seems to be the same for all of us. I get disheartened to see guys on this forum talking about the 200 pip run they got, when I was looking at the same trade thinking the exact opposite.

Its time for me to tighten my rules set them down, practice them, acknowledge that not every trade will go for a 100 pips, and I'd be very lucky if it did. I also have the same problems you had with your exits. Honestly most of my entries are absolutely flawless, very rarely am I in any initial drawdown, the problem is greed, I sit here watching it run away on me for 50+pips thinking sweet, then it turns on a dime and comes back and Ill panic and get out for a loss.

Anyway thanks for the breath of fresh air (I know the thread is over a year old, but it has opened my eyes a lot, in that I think we all go through very similar experiences), hope the next months trading is a lot better for all of us..
  • #115
  • Apr 30, 2008 4:30am Apr 30, 2008 4:30am
Hi totalpips,

I'm almost afraid to go back and read what I wrote a year ago, since it's quite possible that I'm not that much farther along. I still have many of the same problems.

Also, go with a system for as long as it works, be ready to change when the market changes.

That is one thing I believe separates the great traders from the rest of us -- ability to quickly recognize when the market changes; to recognize market character and then know what to do in that type of market.
  • #116
  • Apr 30, 2008 4:35am Apr 30, 2008 4:35am
Today will be the third day on the "real" job.

It's a great job, with tremendous challenge, and very high potential.

Just like forex trading.

Except for 2 things:

1. I know what to do to have consistent success, month after month, year after year.

2. The unlimited potential belongs to someone else. Potential for me on the job is set in stone.

It's good to be around people again, but I feel alone. They're non-traders, different from me. They can't know me.

I miss trading full time. If I made half as much money trading as I'm making now, I'd be 10 times as happy.

What was forex giving me? What need did it satisfy that's not being satisfied now? That's easy. The potential for earnings.

I want the money. I want to do things for my kids. I want time to do what I want. I want to give, and help others.

For those that don't know what J.O.B. stands for, it's "just over broke". Which is an improvement, since now I am undeniably broke.

Broke, but not broken.
  • #117
  • May 6, 2008 7:45am May 6, 2008 7:45am
Quoting blueruby
Today will be the third day on the "real" job.

It's a great job, with tremendous challenge, and very high potential.

Just like forex trading.

Except for 2 things:

1. I know what to do to have consistent success, month after month, year after year.

2. The unlimited potential belongs to someone else. Potential for me on the job is set in stone.

It's good to be around people again, but I feel alone. They're non-traders, different from me. They can't know me.

I miss trading full time. If I made half as much money trading as I'm making now, I'd be 10 times as happy.

What was forex giving me? What need did it satisfy that's not being satisfied now? That's easy. The potential for earnings.

I want the money. I want to do things for my kids. I want time to do what I want. I want to give, and help others.

For those that don't know what J.O.B. stands for, it's "just over broke". Which is an improvement, since now I am undeniably broke.

Broke, but not broken.
you are one of the few characters that I remember and are still here from a year ago. all others are gone already. 95%, huh?

i took almost a year off since i tried/made all FF methods/systems into EAs for backtesting and curve-fitting. only few made it to break even in the end and were curve-fitted probably. it took all my energy and faith in systems.

fixed salary check is not as exciting but its consistent.

i did some trades for fun last month and ended up +400 pips and didn't even get excited (had no loss, one break-even trade), maybe thats the next step. loose the hope and excitement to evolve. not saying that i am or will evolve now to be a super-star trader that appear here and disappear as a Sandworm in Dune.
  • #118
  • Jul 16, 2008 7:08pm Jul 16, 2008 7:08pm
Several times I've typed up a well-thought-out post, and when I hit submit, the @#^^#@^&**! hotel authentication page comes up, and I lose everything. Keeeeriest.

Job is going great (I've wanted the "Senior Engineer" title for some time), got a steal on a house, closing Monday if HUD doesn't change the rules again (they make them up as they go, and it's only to jerk you around).

Everything is going so well it's freakish.

I guess things turn out OK in the long run. Whatever I do in the coming years, I'll be donating money to the good traders. When I'm an old geezer maybe I'll know how to make money trading. Or maybe my temperament is just not suited for it. Time will tell.
  • #119
  • Jul 17, 2008 3:19am Jul 17, 2008 3:19am
Excellent journal. Keep posting.
  • #120
  • Sep 20, 2008 6:57am Sep 20, 2008 6:57am
Hello friends,

Nothing has changed here. I look at the trading platforms long enough to see how the EA's did that day. Really a person needs to start them up, then walk away for a month or a year. Yes, I'm trading a couple with real money. Don't ask, they don't belong to me, I do some programming for a friend that seems to be good at coming up with strategies.

One of them turns 1 into 40 from 1/1/08 until 8/15/08. Then 40 turns back into 10 in one week. Still not too bad. Unless you started a week or two before that week! That's the thing about EA's, 99.9999% of them will hit conditions where they lose big. You hope they have a good run before that time, and get your money back out. If you happen to start at the wrong time, the account can get blown. So proper money management is key.

Job's still going well. Looks like a permenant gig 'till retirement. If I can ever retire with the way this market's going!
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