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Daily Stochastic Oscillator System (#2)

  • #81
  • Feb 16, 2008 9:56am Feb 16, 2008 9:56am
I'll say one thing, UT_FAST may be a good indicator but the number crunching it does causes it to be SLOW and cumbersome when doing backtesting.

A month usually takes 10 minutes and if your wanting to "optimize" you might as well go get a cup of coffee 2 citys away.

Currently doing a backtest on 7 days (to cut down the amount it has to backtest) for 1 variable with 16 variations and it's going to take almost 30 minutes!!!!!

Oh well....

v1.6 revamp is looking better. Just trying to adjust it so it doesn't blow a $5000 account in November.

Apparently some months (or weeks) may not be suitable for this indicator due to a week or chaotic market - but let's get real, you have that with most any indicator/EA.

Have a few tentative backtesting results:

January v1.5 - $17,267 profit
January v1.6 - $15,402 profit (will change with more tweaks - probabbly will go down due to compensating for bad months in the EA)

Well, back to the salt mines - see ya later!

Neal
  • #82
  • Feb 16, 2008 10:09am Feb 16, 2008 10:09am
Hi Neal, How do you manually trade 1.5?
  • #83
  • Feb 16, 2008 11:03am Feb 16, 2008 11:03am
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Neal, How do you manually trade 1.5?
I don't know the rules for this indicator - never have found an official explination.

What I have discovered while coding the EA to use the indicator is the following:

ENTRY: BUY: 4 -- SELL: 29

CLEAN EXIT: for a BUY monitor for best point to exit after it reaches 31 (sometimes it will keep going up). SELL monitor when it gets to 0.

NOW with that said:

SLOPPY EXITS: Between 4 and 29 anything can happen. It can reverse, not have enough momentum to make it to the opisite side, etc. This is where the trader's other tools might be used (Fibs, MA's etc.) to determine when it is in trouble and needs to be closed.

Some charts:

Ideal situation: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=40

What to stay away from: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=71
  • #84
  • Feb 16, 2008 12:21pm Feb 16, 2008 12:21pm
To be honest Neal, I've had more consistent success with version 1.4 than 1.5 as I have been able to take profit manually at a higher level by exiting after x amount of points.

1.5 is good in the sense that it clicks out of a trade but I think the logic needs improvement due to the fact that it exits prematurely sometimes.

Is the gbp/jpy pair the best to trade for these two versions ?

I'm unsure whether 1.6 will be any better but you may surprise us once again Neal with your programming skills.
  • #85
  • Feb 17, 2008 5:35am Feb 17, 2008 5:35am
Would like to find out more information to understand the math and behaviorial patterns of this indicator, but I'm coming up empty handed.

I'm very intriqued with it but I never use indicators unless I fully understand WHY and HOW they display their information.

Thanx for any help!
  • #86
  • Feb 17, 2008 6:06am Feb 17, 2008 6:06am
Quoting Flamenco143
Would like to find out more information to understand the math and behaviorial patterns of this indicator, but I'm coming up empty handed.

I'm very intriqued with it but I never use indicators unless I fully understand WHY and HOW they display their information.

Thanx for any help!
I've had a hard time finding any solid information on it myself. The indicator is called Ultra Trend and the origional indicator is UT_FAST.mq4 (the UT_FAST1.mq4 is a modified one which just does one set of calculations and draws 1 line).

Might do a Google on forex +"ultra trend" to see if you find something.
  • #87
  • Feb 17, 2008 11:18am Feb 17, 2008 11:18am
Nel -
Thanx for suggestion. Will do. Couldn't find any info on my 'usual' spots to become better informed.
  • #88
  • Feb 17, 2008 1:07pm Feb 17, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting vincent001
To be honest Neal, I've had more consistent success with version 1.4 than 1.5 as I have been able to take profit manually at a higher level by exiting after x amount of points.

1.5 is good in the sense that it clicks out of a trade but I think the logic needs improvement due to the fact that it exits prematurely sometimes.

Is the gbp/jpy pair the best to trade for these two versions ?

I'm unsure whether 1.6 will be any better but you may surprise us once again Neal with your programming skills.

Thx for Neal

But i also fnd that V.1.4 Isperfect

regards
  • #89
  • Feb 17, 2008 2:20pm Feb 17, 2008 2:20pm
Quoting hany mohssen
Thx for Neal

But i also fnd that V.1.4 Isperfect

regards
Great! I don't care which version you use, just that you find an EA out there (either here or somewhere else) that fits your level of comfort.
  • #90
  • Feb 17, 2008 2:59pm Feb 17, 2008 2:59pm
Neal,

Thank you for your efforts.

Quoting nealc99
Great! I don't care which version you use, just that you find an EA out there (either here or somewhere else) that fits your level of comfort.
  • #91
  • Feb 17, 2008 8:09pm Feb 17, 2008 8:09pm
where is 1.6 neil ?
  • #92
  • Feb 17, 2008 11:24pm Feb 17, 2008 11:24pm
Quoting vincent001
where is 1.6 neil ?
You're killing me, man!... Neal is kind enough to offer it for free. I'm as eager as the next guy to see 1.6; but I'm sorry. It is just bad form to press him like this. WHEN it is done, AND IF Neal wants to let us play with it, he will post it. If he has not posted it, one or both of those conditions have not happened.

You have to understand that when you post something like an EA in these forums, even with the strictest warnings, people are going to trade with them. If you make a silly coding mistake and it costs somebody some significant money, that would be pretty sad. Even if it was equal or more lunacy on their part for using it without testing it. But then there is the issue of coding it, running it, and finding you are losing your own money with it too.

When the time is right 1.6 will appear. If it never appears, the time was never right. In the meantime, you have two excellent EA already available to test, or do whatever else you want with them. No offense though. I look forward to anything Neal wants to send our way. Thanks again, Neal.
  • #93
  • Feb 18, 2008 12:49am Feb 18, 2008 12:49am
Patience is the most important thing.

What we should do is to express our thanks to him.

Qman is right, when the EA appears, it will appear.
  • #94
  • Feb 18, 2008 12:53am Feb 18, 2008 12:53am
Just relax QMAN, you're stressing for nothing here, OK ?!

Keep cool.
  • #95
  • Feb 18, 2008 1:01am Feb 18, 2008 1:01am
vincent001...I am afraid I agree with qman...

Whats the hurry...? The sky is not falling.

ES

Quoting vincent001
Just relax QMAN, you're stressing for nothing here, OK ?!

Keep cool.
  • #96
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:37am Feb 18, 2008 2:37am
+1 to what Qman said.

Here is the forward test (demo) for the past week starting from the 13th
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip DetailedStatement.zip   11 KB | 538 downloads
  • #97
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:48am Feb 18, 2008 2:48am
My statement from 13-15 Feb with 3 currency
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Statement.zip   2 KB | 460 downloads
  • #98
  • Feb 18, 2008 8:13am Feb 18, 2008 8:13am
Thank you for all your comments and the statements you posted. I have added my statement which is a little more than just last week. All with v1.5 & v1.6. VERY IMPORTANT!!!!! When looking at other statements, I have mentioned before that this indicator does not do well with some pairs. The approved pairs are USDJPY and GPBJPY. So when you look at the statements (even mine) keep that in mind (i.e. if you see a lot of losses with other pairs, ignore it because the EA may not work well with them).

Qman is correct. I want to be able to sleep at night when I go to bed and KNOWINGLY releasing an EA that has the potiential to blow an account is not conducive to sleep. v1.5 was not back tested extensively due to the slow process of backtesting. I found while working on v1.6 that even v1.5 blows November 2007 (and perhaps more - just not backtested).

A reasonable loss in a month durring backtesting is acceptable. Any method be it manual or EA may have that. But not blowing an account.

I will work some more on v1.6 (which I have been all weekend), but if things don't improve it will be aborted and will move on to using another indicator. I was trying to keep the drawdown low but if I increase drawdown I may be able to salvage it.

Wish me luck
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Statement.zip   2 KB | 445 downloads
  • #99
  • Feb 18, 2008 10:55am Feb 18, 2008 10:55am
Quoting nealc99
Thank you for all your comments and the statements you posted. I have added my statement which is a little more than just last week. All with v1.5 & v1.6. VERY IMPORTANT!!!!! When looking at other statements, I have mentioned before that this indicator does not do well with some pairs. The approved pairs are USDJPY and GPBJPY. So when you look at the statements (even mine) keep that in mind (i.e. if you see a lot of losses with other pairs, ignore it because the EA may not work well with them).

Qman is correct. I want to be able to sleep at night when I go to bed and KNOWINGLY releasing an EA that has the potiential to blow an account is not conducive to sleep. v1.5 was not back tested extensively due to the slow process of backtesting. I found while working on v1.6 that even v1.5 blows November 2007 (and perhaps more - just not backtested).

A reasonable loss in a month durring backtesting is acceptable. Any method be it manual or EA may have that. But not blowing an account.

I will work some more on v1.6 (which I have been all weekend), but if things don't improve it will be aborted and will move on to using another indicator. I was trying to keep the drawdown low but if I increase drawdown I may be able to salvage it.

Wish me luck
Good luck

The 1.6 statement seems great
  • #100
  • Feb 19, 2008 2:22am Feb 19, 2008 2:22am
yesterday gave a hard time to the ver 1.5 several loss in a row and 200$ in floating loss (down 500$ in total)

I'll let it run a few more weeks hopefully and will check the ratio for each pairs.
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