Daily Cable Analysis

I'm waiting for a short term double top(with higher second head) with divergence and my bubble indicator blow up on 150 tick followed by a sharp reversal. If not I'm done for the week.

Yeah. After a Friday like this until the news, this baby starts fooling around witht he indicators...

I don't have cardiovascular health for a double top, Leugimp´... Sorry about that...

GU always playing with us ... its unpredictable. Its my 2nd months in forex and concentrate in GU but until now ... I don't know which one to follow ... TA / FA or my own instinct.

Ooookaaaay...

We're now hostages of Goodthings' retracement statistics...

what do you mean??

Long story... But basically, Cable retraces from 100+ pips daily moves. Like 93% chance to hit 38% fib, 80% to reach 50% fib, if I recall the figures...

I've put my stop behind the 61.8 fib at 1.9620 and another resistance off the 4-hour pivot at 1.9614. If those don't hold, then I guess the interest rate increase is just too much for this setup.

wat wil hapen if touches the coma in parbolic?

again some problems with brokers and exchanges,...i am off, have a good weekend, and a lot of sleep..thx

Knew I shouldnn't have fallen asleep, I never woke up in time, missed it again.

Anyone expecting any more movement today before closing?

the rest is move up and down 65 - to 85 .

Right now it's above the 23.6 fib of today's move at 1.9563. There's also an old resistance turned support at 1.9565. If this is taken then it may go down to the 38.2 fib at 1.9536, otherwise, back to the day's high at 1.9605.

According to goodthings' statistics there's a better than 80% chance it'll retrace to 38.2 fib.

I hope it has some volatility left, I wanna scalp some pips.

I went to sleep last night after closing out my scalping short from the London open. And re-entered Long after we opened a clear candle above 1.9484 on the 5 minute candle.

I had projected 1.9506-19510 area to be reached first and possibly higher for the close of todays market.

My Target to 1.9550-75 was my expectation of what the Market was going to accomplish on Sunday. To my surprise it hit easily, closed out my Long automatically, and went up to the high 1.9606.

We fell short 15 pips from hitting the 61.8% Fibo which is the retracement setup from the Downwards movement at a High 1.9840, to the Low of 1.9260.

I am expecting some retracement from the high 1.9606 which is happening now, it should come down to the 50% mark at 1.9537 area and hold in this range for the remainder of the day session.

On the Weekly channel, the high at 1.9606 went and hit the top of the upwards channel to show completion and confirm this Fibo retracement setup.

I still expect the market to open Sunday,ccontinue the push up and re--test the High at 1.9606 (even with US out for a holiday we may even rise to complet the Fibo 61.8% at 1.9621.

Once this is accomplished I will have a better analysis of next weeks direction.

Hope everyone made some profit with the movement, It was a successful week, and I learned much from all of you.

Have a wonderful weekend.

Hey everyone,
I hope this isn't too much info to post at once. But with the market at a snales pace currently I thought it was some interesting commentary to chew on.

Have a great weekend

PIPMYWAY


By John McAuley
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN




NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Retail sales rose more than expected in December highlighting the key source of economic growth in the U.S., despite widely recognized negatives, such as housing.

As a result of the latest data, many economists are looking for a 4%-plus rate of real consumption spending growth in the fourth quarter and, since consumer spending accounted for more than a 70.0% share of gross domestic product in the prior quarter, they are looking for real GDP growth of at least 3%, approaching the 50-year trend rate of 3.3%.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that retail sales rose by 0.9% in December, above the Dow Jones Newswires consensus estimate of 0.7%, although there were some downward revisions to November and October sales.

There seem to be three key implications from these data.

-The solid retail sales increase in the key retailing month of December was broad-based and is another sign of recent stronger economic activity.

-The December strength, even with the adjustments to the two previous months, points to a revival in economic activity in the fourth quarter after two quarters of sub-par growth.

-Since the strength was greatest in the final month of the quarter, it provides a good trajectory into the current quarter and extends the promise of somewhat healthier growth in the rest of 2007.

Broad-based Spending Gains - Led By Flat Screen TVs?


The December gains in retail sales were especially impressive when the areas of relative weakness are recognized as relatively less important.

For instance, while total retail sales rose by 0.9%, when auto dealer sales - accounting for about one-fifth of the total - are excluded, other sales were up a full 1.0%. The Commerce Department, however, excludes auto dealer sales from its compilation of personal consumption expenditures, preferring the more authoritative unit sales reported by auto makers. These sales rose 3.7% in December to an annual rate of 16.7 million from just under 16.1 million in November.

What's more, while non-auto sales were boosted by a 3.8% gain in gas station sales, probably mostly driven by higher gas prices, total sales were slowed by a 1.1% decline in sales at building materials, hardware and garden supply stores. That reflected the negative effect from the hurting home building sector.

Actually, that's why many economists prefer to track the so-called "retail control" concept of retail sales excluding auto, gasoline, and building materials sales - the concept that Commerce uses to estimate PCE. That component rose by 0.9% in December after a 0.5% increase in November and a 0.2% increase in October. These increases and the trend they constitute reflect basic strength that is building.

Indeed, there were solid areas of consumer spending strength in the December data: general merchandising stores - including department stores, a basic outlet for holiday sales - had a 0.9% gain last month, clothing store sales rose by 0.6%, and electronics and appliance stores recorded a 3.0% gain after a 5.8% gain in November. Apparently, flat screen televisions really were big sellers.

Fourth Quarter Strength Could Be A Springboard


As noted, many economists revised up their estimates of fourth quarter GDP growth based on upward-revised estimates for PCE growth.

One of the largest such upward revisions was made by Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers in New York, who raised his GDP forecast to 3.3% from 2.0%, partly due to an upward revision to 4.2% (from 3.0%) in consumption growth (also, he revised down his estimates for capital spending and inventory accumulation, but boosted the contribution from trade). It is notable, that this estimate includes a sizable drag (down 20.0% at an annual rate) from home building. Even though the slumping housing sector has been greatly feared, its relatively small share of GDP (just under 5% last quarter) reasserts the truth that the tail does not wag the dog.

In the 50 years from the end of 1955 through fourth quarter 2005, real GDP growth averaged 3.3%, a reasonable guess at the trend rate of growth.

Harris and his colleagues at Lehman, then, are estimating that the economy just returned to a more trend-like rate in the fourth quarter.

Many other economists' estimates are close. Pete Kretzmer, senior economist at Banc of America Securities in New York, estimates a 3.2% fourth quarter GDP growth rate; Dave Greenlaw, senior economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn., and Jim O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Investment Research in Stamford, Conn., all now look for a 3.0% growth rate.

To be sure, other data releases in recent days have also contributed to these revisions, including the smaller-than-expected constant dollar trade deficit for November, reported Wednesday, and the business inventory data reported on Friday, suggesting less of a overhang. "Consumption is entering the first quarter on a robust trajectory and we now expect 4.6% real consumption gains in both the fourth quarter and the first quarter," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colo. However, because of other areas of lesser strength, he only looks for a 2.7% rate of GDP growth in each quarter. "We used to be at 3.5%, one of the strongest forecasts, but it still looks pretty good."

monarch, can you please give an example of how you draw your fib studies?
I'm new and trying to understand the thinking that go behind drawing fibs. I've been drawing them on all timeframes from the recent swing low to the recent swing high. Sometimes it's hard to know where does swing start and end. Also does it make sense to draw the fibs on an hourly chart and read them on a 15M chart? Do you draw them from the bottom up or the top down?

Thanks,
roy

tell me it did'nt just close at 1.9583