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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,761
  • Feb 15, 2008 5:05am Feb 15, 2008 5:05am
UJ: Imagine if i didn't have the patience and got onto long on UJ before the candle close of 4:00 bar. I would've been in a loss! *Phew*
Candlesticks arent at their best on UJ right now.
GU: Broke 3 MAs! I'm not surprised because price was making a very sharp wedgy shape there and I thought I was going to get long and waited for a TC around the 21. Well.. It has already broken 21. Will have to see what happens next.
  • #11,762
  • Feb 15, 2008 5:13am Feb 15, 2008 5:13am
i don't take TC on usd/jpy coz the tail from top make me worry.thanks
  • #11,763
  • Feb 15, 2008 5:35am Feb 15, 2008 5:35am
Quoting bshadroo
long usdjpy at 108.26 sl:107.92
i entered base on h1 but the gmt in charts i saw a tc in h4
i trade only whith one minilot so i cant close half i will go BE after 25pips and hold until it breaks yesterday's high
edit:stopped out

Are you still in mate?

Editted: just see you've been stopped out! Good trade - might have been a little aggressive, but candle formation was in your favour. I would have taken it if i wasn't in a meeting.

I'm looking at the GBP for a TC thoughts everyone?
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  • #11,764
  • Feb 15, 2008 5:36am Feb 15, 2008 5:36am
Hi Everyone,

What a week! It's been a fantastic week for learning - price action, market rhythm, the perils of CT's and, most importantly, the fatal mistakes caused by lack of PATIENCE! Thanks to you all for sharing some really valuable lessons!

I've put my current U/J chart up for another look at tails and how they give clues to emotion. The most relevant tails occur at the extremes of price. They show that though price may want to go a bit higher / bit lower, the time isn't right and the opposition move into take over the show for a while. Look where the blue rectangles are in terms of support & resistance areas. Tails in the middle of the range will indicate indecision. Do not trade at times like this, wait for the market to show its hand and then go with it.

At the moment we've got that tail to the top and price is sitting back at the top of the range it broke out from. We all know it can go either way, so I want to wait and see if the break was false or if price is just returning to the 200 before continuing in its bullish direction. I also see a sHs on the MACD, so will sit out until the market shows me what it wants to do.

"A little patience, a little smile, a job is done in a little while!" (sickly sweet but true!)
Attached Image
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #11,765
  • Edited 6:18am Feb 15, 2008 6:05am | Edited 6:18am
Quoting welshguy2000
Are you still in mate?

Editted: just see you've been stopped out! Good trade - might have been a little aggressive, but candle formation was in your favour. I would have taken it if i wasn't in a meeting.

I'm looking at the GBP for a TC thoughts everyone?
hi
thx ,just a little disapointed ,it was a good setup
and now it have a TL below i'm waiting for break down that TL
edit:the picture- its going to back to the previous range
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.GIF Size: 38 KB
  • #11,766
  • Feb 15, 2008 6:13am Feb 15, 2008 6:13am
There was a clear long signal on U/J. 8.00 GMT. Result: -50 pips Great system It helped me buy on the top what i really like.
4X is the biggest casino in the world...Open 24h Monday to Friday.
  • #11,767
  • Feb 15, 2008 6:21am Feb 15, 2008 6:21am
Quoting pipsy_2
There was a clear long signal on U/J. 8.00 GMT. Result: -50 pips Great system
i take that signal too my friend and ofcorse im sad and very sad and the worse disapointed,but please dont speak like that ,i think the there was something wich we didnt know,look at other people ,they dont long the pair.just ask the experts why
  • #11,768
  • Feb 15, 2008 6:40am Feb 15, 2008 6:40am
Quoting bshadroo
i take that signal too my friend and ofcorse im sad and very sad and the worse disapointed,but please dont speak like that ,i think the there was something wich we didnt know,look at other people ,they dont long the pair.just ask the experts why
Lets wait, maybe Philip will tell us what was wrong
4X is the biggest casino in the world...Open 24h Monday to Friday.
  • #11,769
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:14am Feb 15, 2008 7:14am
Quoting pipsy_2
Lets wait, maybe Philip will tell us what was wrong
although not the best, but the setup was there. i look at it and seems to me that it was one of the losses. i think other jpy pairs also fell just like that. could be something fundamental as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,770
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:19am Feb 15, 2008 7:19am
Quoting pipsy_2
There was a clear long signal on U/J. 8.00 GMT. Result: -50 pips Great system It helped me buy on the top what i really like.

Hi Pipsy 2,

I know you feel bad, but don't blame the system. It IS a great system, it does work. If you were looking for a long with a TC and you saw the set up, it is ok to go with it. No system is 100% guaranteed. Some trades win, some will lose. If you take the trades with the highest probability of success, you should come out on top at the end of the week, month, year, whatever.

I'm not sure what Phillip thinks, but IMO the feeling wasn't there. It's not just about the MACD signal being green or red, it's about rhythm. This will come with practice. I think it was better to wait for a clearer TC once price had broken the top of the previous small range, then you would know that it most likely does want to go in the long direction. The tail at the top, the sHs on the MACD, the fact that price fell after a period of potential consolidation, all point to a possible collapse of the bull trend. Ryan posted earlier, it's messy at the moment! Nobody can ever predict where price will go next, we don't need to. All we need is to use a system that gives us a higher probability of success than just guessing. This system is great and will revolutionise your trading if you stick with it.

Practise on Phillip's exercises, put time and effort into your study. Pick yourself up, brush off your disappointment, don't trade every TC you see. Look closely at what is happening and look at all the possibilities before you decide that yes, this is a good, high probability trade.

Happy pipping; you will get there if you look to yourself for reasons why something doesn't work and learn from your mistakes.

Rebecca.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #11,771
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:30am Feb 15, 2008 7:30am
Here is a written copy for the 14th of February.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc wrapup for the 14th of Feb.doc   26 KB | 479 downloads
  • #11,772
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:35am Feb 15, 2008 7:35am
Quoting Bag Lady
Hi Pipsy 2,

I know you feel bad, but don't blame the system. It IS a great system, it does work. If you were looking for a long with a TC and you saw the set up, it is ok to go with it. No system is 100% guaranteed. Some trades win, some will lose. If you take the trades with the highest probability of success, you should come out on top at the end of the week, month, year, whatever.

I'm not sure what Phillip thinks, but IMO the feeling wasn't there. It's not just about the MACD signal being green or red, it's about rhythm. This will come with practice. I think it was better to wait for a clearer TC once price had broken the top of the previous small range, then you would know that it most likely does want to go in the long direction. The tail at the top, the sHs on the MACD, the fact that price fell after a period of potential consolidation, all point to a possible collapse of the bull trend. Ryan posted earlier, it's messy at the moment! Nobody can ever predict where price will go next, we don't need to. All we need is to use a system that gives us a higher probability of success than just guessing. This system is great and will revolutionise your trading if you stick with it.

Practise on Phillip's exercises, put time and effort into your study. Pick yourself up, brush off your disappointment, don't trade every TC you see. Look closely at what is happening and look at all the possibilities before you decide that yes, this is a good, high probability trade.

Happy pipping; you will get there if you look to yourself for reasons why something doesn't work and learn from your mistakes.

Rebecca.
You are right, lets wait for another signals. They will come soon. Good is that i took USD/CAD short at 8.00 and it worked. So im not gonna cry but still very angry coz u/j did look very nice to me. It's not the end of the world.
4X is the biggest casino in the world...Open 24h Monday to Friday.
  • #11,773
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:42am Feb 15, 2008 7:42am
I noticed this forming at 3AM EST (s-H-s on the usd/jpy), but it hadn't broke down on the right shoulder. NoW I'm fully awake and it's too late. I would enter if it bounced back up to the neckline for a retracement (maybe to the 200 or back to the 8) and then started back down... Expecting some volatility again as it looks like a wild open in the US Equity markets...

Quoting Bag Lady
Hi Everyone,

What a week! It's been a fantastic week for learning - price action, market rhythm, the perils of CT's and, most importantly, the fatal mistakes caused by lack of PATIENCE! Thanks to you all for sharing some really valuable lessons!

I've put my current U/J chart up for another look at tails and how they give clues to emotion. The most relevant tails occur at the extremes of price. They show that though price may want to go a bit higher / bit lower, the time isn't right and the opposition move into take over the show for a while. Look where the blue rectangles are in terms of support & resistance areas. Tails in the middle of the range will indicate indecision. Do not trade at times like this, wait for the market to show its hand and then go with it.

At the moment we've got that tail to the top and price is sitting back at the top of the range it broke out from. We all know it can go either way, so I want to wait and see if the break was false or if price is just returning to the 200 before continuing in its bullish direction. I also see a sHs on the MACD, so will sit out until the market shows me what it wants to do.

"A little patience, a little smile, a job is done in a little while!" (sickly sweet but true!)
  • #11,774
  • Edited 7:51am Feb 15, 2008 7:49am | Edited 7:51am
Got burned on U/J too. First lot - 20, the second - 30. I had my reasons to buy: TC off the 21, morning star with a hanging man inside, the price has tested previous resistance, which has become support. But there is a wonderful post by Maxster 11757: "I would be careful & get to BE asap if you enter. That huge down move & tail is a big warning sign. I like pullbacks that are steady and pretty looking. This yen pullback is butt ugly."
I wish I saw it earlier, really that bearish candle was a warning sigh, and if I can't read it, well there is nobody to blame.
Attached Image
  • #11,775
  • Feb 15, 2008 7:53am Feb 15, 2008 7:53am
Quoting EricthePip
I noticed this forming at 3AM EST, but it hadn't broke down on the right shoulder. NoW I'm fully awake and it's too late. I would enter if it bounced back up to the neckline for a retracement and then started back down... Expecting some volatility again as it looks like a wild open in the US Equity markets...
There's still 2 hrs to go until the close of my 12:00 gmt candle. There's high impact USD news in 10 mins plus another high impact USD news in 1 hr. Be careful jumping in on a CT, especially if you expect volatility!
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #11,776
  • Feb 15, 2008 8:03am Feb 15, 2008 8:03am
Quoting pipsy_2
You are right, lets wait for another signals. They will come soon. Good is that i took USD/CAD short at 8.00 and it worked. So im not gonna cry but still very angry coz u/j did look very nice to me. It's not the end of the world.
and I would like to encourage all traders (also myself) to post their trades like Philip does it, including the chart and a brief explanation. Then others will understand you better and give their recommendations if something questionable stands out of the picture.

P.S. I trade just eur/usd for now and there haven't been any trades for me this week.

Have a good weekend!
  • #11,777
  • Feb 15, 2008 8:11am Feb 15, 2008 8:11am
Quoting ira
Got burned on U/J too. First lot - 20, the second - 30. I had my reasons to buy: TC off the 21, morning star with a hanging man inside, the price has tested previous resistance, which has become support. But there is a wonderful post by Maxster 11757: "I would be careful & get to BE asap if you enter. That huge down move & tail is a big warning sign. I like pullbacks that are steady and pretty looking. This yen pullback is butt ugly."
I wish I saw it earlier, really that bearish candle was a warning sigh, and if I can't read it, well there is nobody to blame.


The only thing I see on this trade that looks bad is the tail running out the short stops. I think tails play a bigger role then anyone thinks and thats why I posted on it last night. If you think about all the big players, if they are going to run the market short then want EVERYONE out that they can get, they want to hit ALL the buy stops before they run this market down and to get all the scared shorts out and that's just what they did. Also look at the gbpusd as well same thing.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,778
  • Edited 8:29am Feb 15, 2008 8:13am | Edited 8:29am
sorry for off topic, but i just wanted to show you this pack of tails on the 1h against the 200sma on the 4h. tells me that price has found some resistance there. might come down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #11,779
  • Feb 15, 2008 8:14am Feb 15, 2008 8:14am
Yes, I'm done for the week. I was speaking down the road, a few candles (Sunday or Monday), U/J could retrace back to the 200 (already there) and/or 8/21 and then give a clear TC (down). It's kinda like playing pool (planning the next shot). Of course it could all fizzle, as the balls in the market's court. It will do, what a market will do (hurt as many as possible)... Plus I will wait until the motion is inverted (i.e. 8 is below the 21). I wish I had caught the neckline, but there will be more to come... Watch out as well for a "surprise" FMOC cut if the market takes out the early Feb lows

Quoting Bag Lady
There's still 2 hrs to go until the close of my 12:00 gmt candle. There's high impact USD news in 10 mins plus another high impact USD news in 1 hr. Be careful jumping in on a CT, especially if you expect volatility!
  • #11,780
  • Feb 15, 2008 8:24am Feb 15, 2008 8:24am
Have a great weekend everyone. We will wait and see what next week has for us - let's pack some good, safe pips in our bags!

Thanks to you all for sharing your ups and your downs, we may not all be much wealthier, but we are much richer!



Rebecca,x.
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
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