Another short at 0.9084.. with tight money management applied on this order...
- #94
- Feb 15, 2008 10:38am Feb 15, 2008 10:38am
- | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 2,903 Posts
Euro/AUD...??? Well wht made you to go long in this pair now on friday??? I dont trade on this pair but anyway's Can u post the screenshot of ur analysis???
- #95
- Feb 15, 2008 10:44am Feb 15, 2008 10:44am
- | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Technical Trader | 765 Posts
I based on relative strength of the EUROUSD vs. AUDUSD. EURAUD can go up on a down EURUSD or an up EURUSD if that relative strength works in my favor. The EURUSD and AUDUSD are bouncing nicely, but I feel topside is limited for today. Subsequent lower highs on AUDUSD, failure to break resistance at .91 (so far), and toppy on stoci, momo, and williams. Versus EURAUD which is coming off a trendline support on same indicators.
- #98
- Feb 15, 2008 10:27pm Feb 15, 2008 10:27pm
From my point of view I saw OOzie extended recovery from 0.8510 (low Jan 30) until 0.9016/13 (high of Jan 15/30 respectively) to hit 0.9097/99 (pipe high Feb 04) before falling. Losses extended to .8873 (low Feb 07) ahead of the development of a minor support. Pipe high reached at 0.9079/81 (Feb 12) before reversing to 0.8921 (low Feb 13) thus, leaving a higher lows predicting an uptrend to initially retest pipe high on Feb 04 lies at 0.9097/99 possible accelerating a breach above targeting 0.9127 (closing gap nov 09 '07)....just my 2 cents!
Have a great week end to everyone!
Have a great week end to everyone! 
Looks like not a very user-friendly forum where people can share their information. I apologize for trying to post my analysis for the aud. And the upcoming price move will unfold, we just have to wait.
Sorry to know this forum does not accept the other opinion.
Rule in trading: when I go long, I want all people to agree .. yea long. a very common mistake while the real picture is simple and clear with very little effort.
We humans, basically, do not want opposite opinions. and truly the aussie is not going to move for personal wishes.
I ask you when are so certain my analysis is wrong, kindly attach the right picture from your view so that we can share. Not just "your analysis is totally wrong because I am short..and its my personal aim to short..and nothing can change it"
Goodbye, and good luck
Countertrend - Technically on the chart what you present makes sense. But technical runs only play out if everything is in place for the trend to roll out. This was the case 12-18months ago. Volatility since Aug has come into the market and the economic forces are bringing eveything back into equilibrum.
Essentially if the AUD hits 1 USD then the market is saying the Australian economy is worth as much as the US economy. Or the Australian economy can return significant returns to investors and governments more than the US economy. The Australian economy is still very small.
What people are forgetting about the Australian economy is that all the domestic activity is based on credit. Australians have borrowed heavily in the last several years. If you read RBA reports Australia has gone from something like (dont quote me - look it up yourself at rba.gov.au) from $500 odd B around 10 years ago to nearly $1.7 trillion now. Most of the borrowing done in the last 4 years as foreign investors pumped money into the economy. Australia's net foreign debt is unervingly high. The US has huge debts (per capita not as high as Australia) but still high - the difference is the US is the central economy in the world and is far more able to repay it's debts than Australia can - it has far more people, resources and leading corporations to call on and tax to adjust it's economy. This is why 1 for 1 AUD/USD does not make sense.
So where does that leave a forex trader. You'll make on the short term but be prepared for it to trend downwards as the markets bring it back to normality.