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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,741
  • Feb 14, 2008 5:02pm Feb 14, 2008 5:02pm
Or another way to look at it, if you're a math geek (sorry I'm an engineer by trade) is the Fibo numbers are 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377, etc...

We use the 8, 21, 200 and 365 based on Phil's methods/experience, but the 365 is near the fibo number 377. Fibo's have "pulling power" both in price levels and ma's... I don't really need to know why, I just use them....

Quoting OldDog
You've pretty much gotten your answer from Ryan and Nadia, but here's a quote from a copy Nadia made of Phillip's mp3 on Rhythm Cycle. You can find the complete work on page 482, post 7222, and Phillip's chart and mp3 are in the post just above Nadia's. Here's the quote:

You can see the 365 there. Between those two the 200 and the 89 at that specific point and price ignores it because it is not very important. The 365 is important when price moves away from the known moving averages like the 8, 21, 89 and 200, when price moves away from them , the 365 starts to play a role. When there is no other moving averages close to that.
  • #11,742
  • Feb 14, 2008 6:24pm Feb 14, 2008 6:24pm
Not condoning a counter trend trade, but if one were inclined and was itching for one, I believe this is a decent one:

1) 25 pips or so to the 8ema
2) R:R reasonable 20 pips risk to stop 98.42, tp around 98.0
3) signal on the MACD
4) Market motion would anticipate a retrace to the 200 (which coincides with the 21)
5) relative high overbought level on the MACD
6) Upper trend line resistance....

Management: take 1/2 profit at the 8ema, move stop on remainder to break even.....

All right, bring it on (ryan)
Attached Image
  • #11,743
  • Feb 14, 2008 7:43pm Feb 14, 2008 7:43pm
Quoting BIL2205
...
200 sma can act as a very strong support or resistance.and is used for Profit target aswell.

89 MA is the back bone and tends to set the Mode . above it Bullish , Below it bearish.

8 and 21 are your best friends so you might want to stick with them for most of your trades.

....
Feb 15, 01h40gmt
Hello Nadia and all traders,

I like your point of view. E/U at 1.4635 right now. spot is going to 89 (1.4675) and 200 (1.4686). A pullback to 8 (1.4613) and 21 (1.4587) is possible and likely for bulls.

In your interpretation, we have to wait for a CT/RT at 1.4670/80 level to go short. Right?

In other colleagues' opinion, we have to wait for a TC at 1.4613 (daily pivot point by the way) to go long.

Perhaps both plans are correct. E/U is into a range since Nov 07, and now looks it is going up again. What strategy is more profitable? If pair breaks through 89, the range's top is at 1.4870+, around 250pips. If pair fails at 89/200, range bottom at 1.4550 and below... around 125+pips...

Plan 1: go to 89...
Plan 2: if break through 89/200 go long, if not go short ?

What you all think? Let me know your thoughts!

Regards,

Adrian
  • #11,744
  • Feb 14, 2008 7:49pm Feb 14, 2008 7:49pm
I was going over the 13 exercise's from Phillip and the onle thing I was wondering is if you miss a 4hr bar, and the next bar pulls back do you ever get in on that bar? It seems when it's in a trend you maybe safer to wait for the pullback then to use a large stop. Will you miss a few moves? Sure you will but if you are not here when the move happens it would be better to enter close to the low and use a tighter stop then not take the trade at all.


Also the 2nd question I have is on tails, I am not a candle pro at all and I see where Phillip uses these all the time. How do you read the tailes? It seems to me most of the time the tails or running stops / hitting orders then the trend moves away from the tails. Such as if the tails where pushing up after the tails are done the trend would be down.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,745
  • Feb 14, 2008 8:12pm Feb 14, 2008 8:12pm
There was a weekly update on the thread on entering on a pullback, I'll try to find in tomorrow, but the jest of it is that it's fine and sometimes preferable to enter on a pull back especially on a big bar, where the stop would be too big. Of course you'll miss some, as some don't retrace. I've also seen Phillip take the trade on if the motion looks good and use fibo's to lower the stop to a more acceptable level. (maybe put the stop at 62% up a large candle for example).

Attached is an example recently posted for candle tails (see inset B, C, E and K), sorry cannot remember who posted it to give proper credit. In this case tails have created a support/resistance level to signal either a tc or ct

Hope this helps... I need to review the 13 lessons as well, been last year since I reviewed them....

Quoting Ryanmcd
I was going over the 13 exercise's from Phillip and the onle thing I was wondering is if you miss a 4hr bar, and the next bar pulls back do you ever get in on that bar? It seems when it's in a trend you maybe safer to wait for the pullback then to use a large stop. Will you miss a few moves? Sure you will but if you are not here when the move happens it would be better to enter close to the low and use a tighter stop then not take the trade at all.


Also the 2nd question I have is on tails, I am not a candle pro at all and I see where Phillip uses these all the time. How do you read the tailes? It seems to me most of the time the tails or running stops / hitting orders then the trend moves away from the tails. Such as if the tails where pushing up after the tails are done the trend would be down.
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  • #11,746
  • Feb 14, 2008 8:16pm Feb 14, 2008 8:16pm
Quoting OldDog
Aihua5, Probably, the reason you couldn't find the written copy of Which Way is the Trend? is because its name was slightly changed. You can find it on page 365 post 5470. Its slightly different title is Trend Direction. You'll have to get the PDF charts from the original post by Phillip that you mentioned.
--Tony
Tony, appricate your help. Thanks a million. Many pips to you.
-Aihua
Rhythm, Motion, Emotion and Risk Reward.
  • #11,747
  • Feb 14, 2008 8:17pm Feb 14, 2008 8:17pm
I believe the consensus on the Eur is that it's trending up, wait for a TC. Can do a CT to the 8 or 21, but the high probability trade is the TC off the 8 or 21. 89 is the target for a long. Anticipated entry points would be the 8 or 21. A counterTrend trade would be to go short at the first signal (RT), but again, the high probability (and likely more pips) is to not take the CT, but wait for the TC...

Quoting arodriguez
Feb 15, 01h40gmt
Hello Nadia and all traders,

I like your point of view. E/U at 1.4635 right now. spot is going to 89 (1.4675) and 200 (1.4686). A pullback to 8 (1.4613) and 21 (1.4587) is possible and likely for bulls.

In your interpretation, we have to wait for a CT/RT at 1.4670/80 level to go short. Right?

In other colleagues' opinion, we have to wait for a TC at 1.4613 (daily pivot point by the way) to go long.

Perhaps both plans are correct. E/U is into a range since Nov 07, and now looks it is going up again. What strategy is more profitable? If pair breaks through 89, the range's top is at 1.4870+, around 250pips. If pair fails at 89/200, range bottom at 1.4550 and below... around 125+pips...

Plan 1: go to 89...
Plan 2: if break through 89/200 go long, if not go short ?

What you all think? Let me know your thoughts!

Regards,

Adrian
  • #11,748
  • Edited 8:52pm Feb 14, 2008 8:38pm | Edited 8:52pm
Sorry to barge in on a system I don't know much about... but this particular question is one I have been thinking about for some time now in my trading... I also have a system which says take the trade at a certain time... lets just say LONG... and sometimes I am just not there to take the trade at the right time... yet when I get to the computer I find the price actually lower than the get in LONG point.... lately I have seen this more as an opportunity to get in at a better price... rather than sitting out of the trade...lately I would be more inclined to get in on the trade even if I missed the actual entry... this is an opportunity to get more pips... as long as something fundamental about the trade has not changed... also, often times price has pulled back to an ma or other necessary point, so it can continue on in the right direction...

Personally I think price knows where it is going... it has somewhere it wants to go... and it is going to get there one way or the other... so if you have picked the right trade at the right time with the right target... price is going to get there... so why not get in at the lower price...?

BUT if you have thoughts about the problem of having to put your stop so far away when you are at the entry point... then there should be no questions... just make the trade size smaller... to fit the risk you can allow yourself... and if you happen to be able to get in at a better price... well hey... you get to up the trade size a bit...

AND.. that is a great chart in post 11748... I am going to make that poster size and put it on my wall ...!!

Quoting Ryanmcd
I was going over the 13 exercise's from Phillip and the onle thing I was wondering is if you miss a 4hr bar, and the next bar pulls back do you ever get in on that bar? It seems when it's in a trend you maybe safer to wait for the pullback then to use a large stop. Will you miss a few moves? Sure you will but if you are not here when the move happens it would be better to enter close to the low and use a tighter stop then not take the trade at all.


Also the 2nd question I have is on tails, I am not a candle pro at all and I see where Phillip uses these all the time. How do you read the tailes? It seems to me most of the time the tails or running stops / hitting orders then the trend moves away from the tails. Such as if the tails where pushing up after the tails are done the trend would be down.
  • #11,749
  • Feb 14, 2008 8:47pm Feb 14, 2008 8:47pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
I was going over the 13 exercise's from Phillip and the onle thing I was wondering is if you miss a 4hr bar, and the next bar pulls back do you ever get in on that bar? It seems when it's in a trend you maybe safer to wait for the pullback then to use a large stop. Will you miss a few moves? Sure you will but if you are not here when the move happens it would be better to enter close to the low and use a tighter stop then not take the trade at all.


Also the 2nd question I have is on tails, I am not a candle pro at all and I see where Phillip uses these all the time. How do you read the tailes? It seems to me most of the time the tails or running stops / hitting orders then the trend moves away from the tails. Such as if the tails where pushing up after the tails are done the trend would be down.

Ryan,

Phillip's candlestick stuff is on pg. 650. Good Stuff. Be careful though, chasing tail can be costly...LOL
  • #11,750
  • Feb 14, 2008 8:53pm Feb 14, 2008 8:53pm
Large Candle Entry Spread.zip. ..651.....9760

Quoting smnitro1
Ryan,

Phillip's candlestick stuff is on pg. 650. Good Stuff. Be careful though, chasing tail can be costly...LOL
  • #11,751
  • Feb 14, 2008 9:10pm Feb 14, 2008 9:10pm
Quoting smnitro1
Ryan,

Phillip's candlestick stuff is on pg. 650. Good Stuff. Be careful though, chasing tail can be costly...LOL

lol not going to chase them just learn more about what is going on. I can trade pretty good right now but going from say 80% winners to 85% is huge.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,752
  • Feb 14, 2008 9:22pm Feb 14, 2008 9:22pm
Chart
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Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,753
  • Feb 14, 2008 9:50pm Feb 14, 2008 9:50pm
hi guys ,its my planning on usd/jpy,i will take long if macd give me TC on 21 ema ,canddle pattern doji ,if price close above 21 ema i will take it if macd signal tC With target profit below the resistance.and for sl below 200 sma.

please share your analysis ,thanks.




"TOGETHER MORE BETTER THAN ALONE"
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  • #11,754
  • Feb 14, 2008 10:08pm Feb 14, 2008 10:08pm
Quoting juang
hi guys ,its my planning on usd/jpy,i will take long if macd give me TC on 21 ema ,canddle pattern doji ,if price close above 21 ema i will take it if macd signal tC With target profit below the resistance.and for sl below 200 sma.

please share your analysis ,thanks.




"TOGETHER MORE BETTER THAN ALONE"

I would be careful & get to BE asap if you enter. That huge down move & tail is a big warning sign.

I like pullbacks that are steady and pretty looking. This yen pullback is butt ugly.
  • #11,755
  • Feb 14, 2008 10:13pm Feb 14, 2008 10:13pm
Quoting juang
hi guys ,its my planning on usd/jpy,i will take long if macd give me TC on 21 ema ,canddle pattern doji ,if price close above 21 ema i will take it if macd signal tC With target profit below the resistance.and for sl below 200 sma.

please share your analysis ,thanks.




"TOGETHER MORE BETTER THAN ALONE"
I have the same idea there on U/J... AND what bothers me is that BOJ's Interest rate announcement is coming tentatively. When would it be?

EDIT: Refreshed the page and Interest Rate announcement showed up.
  • #11,756
  • Feb 15, 2008 1:14am Feb 15, 2008 1:14am
Well 2am EST 4H bar just closed.

EUR too close to 89. GBP I don't like the tails.

I am starting to feel a little emotional not having a TC trade this week so I think I will call it a week before I force a trade.

Tough week for nice TC signals - there were a couple good ones that I missed

Good luck to everyone.
  • #11,757
  • Edited 2:13am Feb 15, 2008 1:16am | Edited 2:13am
seems eurjpy is in a nice up channel and there is another TC signal
edit:last one worked also
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  • #11,758
  • Edited 4:32am Feb 15, 2008 2:31am | Edited 4:32am
long usdjpy at 108.26 sl:107.92
i entered base on h1 but the gmt in charts i saw a tc in h4
i trade only whith one minilot so i cant close half i will go BE after 25pips and hold until it breaks yesterday's high
edit:stopped out
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  • #11,759
  • Feb 15, 2008 4:23am Feb 15, 2008 4:23am
Quoting Phillip Nel
The rhythm as I saw it since Tuesday. It has been discussed on many times on the thread. When comes from a down move and closes above the 21ema it tends to pull back to the 21ema and even some below it before moving upwards to the 89sma. The opposite for an upmove. Look at the graphs and tell me what you see.

If people are not going to stick to the anticipated rules they are not going to make it. People are looking for trades in the wrong direction against the anticipated rules while this specific rule has been discussed tens of times. One has to wait for the right moment to enter into the anticipated move according to the rules.
Thanks Phillip for reminding the importance of the close above 21ema (when bearish) and then the pull back to the 21ema before moving bullish to 89sma.
  • #11,760
  • Edited 4:52am Feb 15, 2008 4:48am | Edited 4:52am
Quoting arodriguez
Feb 15, 01h40gmt
Hello Nadia and all traders,

I like your point of view. E/U at 1.4635 right now. spot is going to 89 (1.4675) and 200 (1.4686). A pullback to 8 (1.4613) and 21 (1.4587) is possible and likely for bulls.

In your interpretation, we have to wait for a CT/RT at 1.4670/80 level to go short. Right?

In other colleagues' opinion, we have to wait for a TC at 1.4613 (daily pivot point by the way) to go long.

Perhaps both plans are correct. E/U is into a range since Nov 07, and now looks it is going up again. What strategy is more profitable? If pair breaks through 89, the range's top is at 1.4870+, around 250pips. If pair fails at 89/200, range bottom at 1.4550 and below... around 125+pips...

Plan 1: go to 89...
Plan 2: if break through 89/200 go long, if not go short ?

What you all think? Let me know your thoughts!

Regards,

Adrian
HI , the post you have refered to was intented to explain the purpose of the Diffeerent moving averages. But according to market rhythm price on euro was heading for 89, i anticipated a pullback the 21 , but price moved a little faster and consolidated around the 8 ema and is now moved to 89 and 200 sma.
Now from here 2 scenarios can be anticipated.

#1: price has to break 89 , pull back to to it or the 21 if it jas crossed 89 by then and then move away to get into bullish mode.( this scenario will be of intrest to me for a trade)

#2 price goes back through the 21, pulls back to it and then moves away ( down) to resume its bearish mode. ( will be of interest to me as well)

Another scenario is a round top on macd with resistance at the 200 and 89 with a trade opportunity down to the 8 and 21 ema but that would be counter trend trade( counter to the short term bullish mode price is in) but i have only been doing trend continuation so will skip that.
Hope this helped. Pip well and Plenty,

Nadia.
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