Fx_Genius, Turning $300 to 100K – Testing System 42

Here’s the update for 2/4/2008.
Up 1.87% for the day, 49.21% overall averaging 4.14% per day, 10trading days.
4k long, closed in AM.
EUR/USD the pair of choice.
Currently short 4k EUR/USD, up 27 PIP's.
Looking long AUD/USD, will see what happens.

Here’s the update for 2/5/2008.
Up 7.04% for the day, 59.71% overall averaging 4.40% per day, 11 trading days.
4k EUR/USD short, closed in AM, missed about 50 PIP's but I got my 100!
Currently short 4k EUR/USD, up 34 PIP's.
Can we get a repeat of last night?

Will look forward for the live adventure! Good going so far.

Here’s the update for 2/6/2008.
Up 3.45% for the day, 65.23% overall averaging 4.32% per day, 12 trading days.
4k EUR/USD short, closed in AM.
Currently long 2k EUR/USD, sitting even.
Not getting a clear read on direction of EUR/USD and there is a lot of news due out tomorrow, but I think long more than short, if it goes long, we could see 1.47 - 1.48 range if it goes short 1.44? Either way strap in its going to be a bumpy ride!

well looks very promising so far

even at this point i believe you have achieved what the 99% can't do

i also believe that your goal is achievable, good luck

if it works in the demo with 90% success rate i always assume that it will have less success rate in live acc

Hello Gift_Art,

Thank you for the encouragement and I agree a live account may perform lower. Right now I am about 4.3% / day and I only need 2.8735% / day, so by out performing on the demo by about 25% I should be able to make my target (I hope!). It has been a lot of hard work to get to where I am and will be more so when I go live, but nothing has a good/great return without hard work.

Excellent, I hope you reach your target. If one can beat the odds then maybe I will one day.

Here’s the update for 2/7/2008.
Down 2.61% for the day, 60.91% overall averaging 3.79% per day, 13 trading days.

Mark this as one of those days I should have stayed in bed!

Had 2k EUR/USD long from last night (1.4637), got up early for the rate GBP rate, dropped a bit and went long 1k more (1.4620 on order) figuring no rate change by EUR would send it up..... we all know what happened.

Started to go back up and picked up 1k more (1.4571), was getting set for a great day...

Well, as I went skydiving with the EUR, I closed the last 1k for a 13 PIP loss, but it gave me more room to ride out the storm.

Currently long 4k EUR/USD, sitting in a hole. Waiting. And waiting. I know I can get out with a profit but when? I can wait.

It has given me an insight to the possibility opening a 2nd account just for the purpose of hedging on days like this, as the demo account (and live with this broker) can only be done with more than one account. I will have to look into it as well as using it for long term trades.

Note to self: Read what you write the night before!
>>Not getting a clear read on direction of EUR/USD and there is a lot of news due out tomorrow, but I think long more than short, if it goes long, we could see 1.47 - 1.48 range if it goes short 1.44? Either way strap in its going to be a bumpy ride!<<

Here’s the update for 2/8/2008.
Up 0.01% for the day, 60.93% overall averaging 3.52% per day, 13 trading days.
3k EUR/USD long, still waiting the EUR out.

FxHat has a cool program he is working on and has released for the FF readers. The tool is freeware.
FX Hat 1.1 - Analyze Your Oanda FXTrade History

It saves me a bunch of calculations, screen shot is below of my demo account. Going to be doing a lot of research this weekend. Anyone up for some high math and history study?

Here’s the update for 2/11/2008.
Up 0.03% for the day, 60.97% overall averaging 3.29% per day, 14 trading days.
3k EUR/USD long, still waiting the EUR out.

Here’s the update for 2/14/2008.
Up 0.01% for the day, 61.02% overall averaging 2.74% per day, 18 trading days.
3k EUR/USD long, still waiting the EUR out.
I's been a few days between posts but it was SOS.

BUT I'M IN THE MONEY!!!

Might wait this out a little longer but the AUD/USD seems to be on the rise for next week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia

Here’s the update for 2/15/2008.
Up 6.95% for the day, 72.21% overall averaging 2.96% per day, 19 trading days.
3k EUR/USD long, Closed! The long wait is over!!!

Acidguy's sig says it best.
"forex is war, patience its friend.
have you prepared any attack plan? you proactive or reactive?"

Patience has enabled my account to survive and gain from the drop last week. Did a few more trades and have a AUD/USD long (1k), crystal ball says Aussi is going up next week. Time will tell. Up 22 PIP's at the moment. Will have to study the EUR/USD for next week.

Lessons learned:
1) Using charts (70%) & news (30%) for prediction works for me most of the time.
2) Using charts & news last week didn't work.
3) Need another tool for news data collection and analysis.

I started working on a fundamental tool (Survey - Fundamental Words) to do #3. Still working out the words & math behind it for accurate reads. The results I am currently getting seem off, but it is a work in progress. If you would like to help, put up some words. When I get more accurate results I will post them.

Remember, the market is closed till Sunday night. Enjoy the weekend!

Oh yeah, the account summary is from FXHat's software.
FX Hat 1.1 - Analyze Your Oanda FXTrade History

You have an impressive success rate ratio. Good luck on your road to wealth...

impressive, hope you keep it this way

Here’s the update for 2/18/2008.
Down 1.44% for the day, 69.74% overall averaging 2.96% per day, 20 trading days.
EUR/USD long & short, AUD/USD long & short.
I hate it when the US market is closed.
Outlook better so far tonight (Up 1.6%), tomorrow will tell.
[Edit]
Sent in the paperwork for the live acct. going live next week?

Here’s the update for 2/21/2008.
Up 9.07% for the day, 66.93% overall averaging 2.34% per day, 23 trading days.
Had a few wrong indicators and lost a bit and been a few days since last post evaluating why.
2/18/08 -1.44%
2/19/08 -7.74%
2/20/08 -2.27%
EUR/USD long & short, AUD/USD long & short.
Finally figured it out. I think. Damn near had the E/U whole ride up +90 pips (First Long when I should have shorted) & +192 pips (Just off the bottom)!
A/U was just better than break even, net +30 pips (2k -17, 1k +77)
Currently short E/U, tomorrow will tell if I guessed right.
Should have the account tomorrow and will be funded by next Friday?

I want to thank all of the visitors for their words of encouragement and support.
I wasn't sure if there was any interest in my journal other than a public reference for my trades until I was looking for other journals to see how others were trading and saw the hits I had! Over 2200! WOW! My web site doesn't have that much traffic!

Now we just need to try and get FXAnalytics to finish what he started that put me on my path.
$100 to $100K in 1 year...

As I write this, the E/U just dropped, now sitting +11.4 & +13.4 pips on (2) 2k orders.

It's been awhile since last post, so heres whats been happening.
The demo account is kind of in limbo.. long since 1.48144 (-380 pips) and I needed to find out why I got into this situation.
I have set up a margin account on the demo just as I am going to in the live account and have been trading off of it and moving some of the results into the main account to keep it alive. What's the E/U going to do? I haven't the foggiest idea. A lot of my time has been spent on a news study program to add as a helper indicator in addition to other indicators like charts. It's getting close and the accuracy is better, it's almost not a lagging indicator but it's not a predictor yet.

Acidguy has links to a few videos that while out of date (end of 2007) they are still very relevant in the world economy right now!

I think the E/U might have a little more long life in it, but not much. However looking at the Daily chart the pause we are seeing right now might just be another step on the stairs up.

Oh and by the way, I have a live account!!! It will be funded as soon as I can get the bank and broker to "talk" to each other.

Finally Live!!!
Got it all set up, funded and a hedge account (I can learn from my mistakes, usually). What a difference trading live, with real money. Kinda felt like the baby in the commercial. OK not really, but it does sound good. Having spent over a year in demo land before going live has paid off big time in the way I look at the information I have and the trade decisions I make. I think (Could be wrong) that trading demo for as long as I did could be compared to the confidence of a driver after a year of driving compared to when they just got there license, or a karate student after their first year of training. You don't really think about what you are going to do, you see the information and you act.

Anyway, here are the details.
Main Account funding: $300.00 USD, 50:1
Hedge Account funding: $300.00 USD, 50:1

Main Acct Trades:
6k EUR/USD Short from 1.5202, SL 1.5270, TP 1.4950

Hedge Acct Trades:
None yet.

Last News Katana Indicators (+=Long, -=Short, +10 to -10 values)
-8.56, -4.79

Well it was fun while it lasted, watching my shorts getting pulled over my head today. I guess most of the indicators I have looked at the past year of demo trading have mostly become useless. Well I have found a few that seem to be working.

No I'm not broke and I didn't margin out but I'm down 33%.

At the moment I'm long EUR/USD and in the black and on my way back. I will be staying long till its done.. maybe in 9-10 months it will start to drop. I have no idea what it will take to make it drop but bad news, good news or no news it goes up. And so will I till it doesn't.

Welcome to the club via the rites and initiation......
Seems like this happens to everyone when they go live, hang in there it comess back.