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Diary of a Mad Surfer

  • #361
  • Feb 12, 2008 6:34am Feb 12, 2008 6:34am
E.U daily fibo fan
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  • #362
  • Feb 12, 2008 6:38am Feb 12, 2008 6:38am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
E.U daily fibo fan
that's a very nice TL/channel too, so when did we start using fibo fans and do you apply them in the same way we do normal fib's?
  • #363
  • Feb 12, 2008 6:45am Feb 12, 2008 6:45am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Eu 4h, blue fibo fans (easy to apply) red for decending TL.

we see a single candle has broken through the TL but it still has an hour to run so may close lower.

real mixed bag at this time, so the high risk trade is to enter now, as this may be turning up


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so we look to the 1h to see whats going on and price just hit the 100!!
  • #364
  • Feb 12, 2008 6:52am Feb 12, 2008 6:52am
Quoting MPP
that's a very nice TL/channel too, so when did we start using fibo fans and do you apply them in the same way we do normal fib's?
It's something I learned when I first started, But then I kind of threw fibo's away until I started to get more in depth with E.W and then I found Bobokus fibs and the way he uses them it all just came together. And it was there from the beginning I just didn't see it.
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  • #365
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:03am Feb 12, 2008 7:03am
Quoting MPP

real mixed bag at this time, so the high risk trade is to enter now, as this may be turning up

so we look to the 1h to see whats going on and price just hit the 100!!

Is this the bottom of the markets that every body is calling for? It temporarily could be. ( my personal opinion is that the U.S is bankrupt and we will see a mother of all recessions, But I trade what I see not what I think) We may retest the highs before the great crash.
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  • #366
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:23am Feb 12, 2008 7:23am
Quoting MPP
any clues as to the best way to trade this, i was looking for an entry of the next touch to the 8ma on D1, but is there a better way, this is a common problem for me, all the indicators are in the correct order but when to enter, maybe the next retracement to the 100 on the 1h or 4h?
Looks like we are going for a test of the broken trendline, could be a nice entry point around the blue box area...
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Never say never.
  • #367
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:49am Feb 12, 2008 9:49am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
GbpChf
nice touch of the 4h 100, so would be good r:r for a short. almost

the issues is see are the 13x100 on the 1h - good or bad indicator for more longs?
and the position of the 100 on the daily. if we look at the weekly position for the 8ma we could easily see a high of around 2.18XX before the more down again.

do we trust the 4h more?
  • #368
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:04am Feb 12, 2008 10:04am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
i applied a fibo fan to the EU weekly chart from nov 2005 to may 2006

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bet you wish you'd traded them channels.
  • #369
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:59am Feb 12, 2008 10:59am
Resistance at the 200, T1 and a 61.8% fibo fan on EU 1hr. break above this and we are heading to the 4hr 200 after that the sky is the limit, well at least until 4970. I took the GU trade and it did the same (hitting a fibo fan and hitting a 100% extension. I got out on the pip with over 153 of them
I still don't trust this trend to be holding positions very long. once we break through the resistance levels then I will be satisfied to leave positions open but until then I'm taking my pips and running. Got some from AU, AJ and CAD as well. Today was much better than yesterday.
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  • #370
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:12am Feb 12, 2008 11:12am
Quoting MPP
i applied a fibo fan to the EU weekly chart from nov 2005 to may 2006
bet you wish you'd traded them channels.

The more you use the fibo tools the more you like them.
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  • #371
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:17am Feb 12, 2008 11:17am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Resistance at the 200, T1 and a 61.8% fibo fan on EU 1hr. break above this and we are heading to the 4hr 200 after that the sky is the limit, well at least until 4970. I took the GU trade and it did the same (hitting a fibo fan and hitting a 100% extension. I got out on the pip with over 153 of them
I still don't trust this trend to be holding positions very long. once we break through the resistance levels then I will be satisfied to leave positions open but until then I'm taking my pips and running. Got some from AU, AJ and CAD as well. Today was much better than yesterday.

i'm still not seeing all this entries, when you find the time would you mind posting the reasons for entry and TP, don't mind if they are as taken or even a few days later, but it would help me learn.
  • #372
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:33am Feb 12, 2008 11:33am
Quoting MPP
i'm still not seeing all this entries, when you find the time would you mind posting the reasons for entry and TP, don't mind if they are as taken or even a few days later, but it would help me learn.

Here was my cable trade. price went up to T1 then retraced to the short level but just touched it (almost touched the fib fan) then the candle closed on the pivot and the next candle went up thats when I went long, my fist target was the 200 but I was away when that happened, when I came back it was almost at the double fib of 100% and the high on the 4hr. Plus a fibo fan line. as soon as it touched all three I took profit and it retraced. Like hitting the bulls eye with a dart. I took the trade based off of fib levels and price action.
The other trades were similar but momentum was based off of cable.
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  • #373
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:37am Feb 12, 2008 11:37am
BWR,

Waiting on a break above 9060 to add longs as well. Stole some pips this morning already.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #374
  • Feb 12, 2008 11:59am Feb 12, 2008 11:59am
Cable bounced back along with the FTSE. Could it be a sign of a trend change? Suckers rally or are higher yielding currencies (carry trades) back in play? I have been staying away from AU due to the markets inability for a longer term direction but I reckon, if carry trades due unwind sometime in the end of March, I will be buying and going in long term.
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  • #375
  • Feb 12, 2008 4:04pm Feb 12, 2008 4:04pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
How did the buy and hold position work out on EurChf from oct 07, are you still holding longs.

while look back old school like do you still look for triangle breakouts?
  • #376
  • Feb 13, 2008 1:43am Feb 13, 2008 1:43am
Quoting MPP
How did the buy and hold position work out on EurChf from oct 07, are you still holding longs.

while look back old school like do you still look for triangle breakouts?
No Longs on EURCHF

Cart patterns and wave patterns are my primary tool for analysis, The ema's are my second tool, and then fibs. Actually the fibs are now secondary and the ema's are in third place. The reason is ema's are a lagging indicator, which means it happens after the fact. Well if you saw we were in a certain chart pattern then you would of known before the ema cross what was going to happen. Using all four together can really increase your chances of profitability, as my mentor always said, the more reasons you have for entering a trade the more chances you have that it will be profitable.

I like to say out of 4 scale.

Ema cross......................................................1 out of 4 it will be profitable
Ema cross + fibo level.......................................2 out of 4
Ema cross + fibo + chart pattern breakout............3 out of 4
Ema+Fibo+chart pattern+wave pattern............... CHA-CHING!!!!!!
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  • #377
  • Feb 13, 2008 4:26am Feb 13, 2008 4:26am
AJ is still looking bearish on the weekly and daily
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #378
  • Feb 13, 2008 10:46am Feb 13, 2008 10:46am
I don't know if I'm getting better or what, but the breakout of the H4 upwards trendline for GBJPY did not convince me into going long. In fact what I suspect is that the pair would probably hit 214 and head back down and that would make it range-bound between 214 and 206.

Have a look BWR and tell me what you think.
  • #379
  • Feb 13, 2008 12:29pm Feb 13, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting JodyOng
I don't know if I'm getting better or what, but the breakout of the H4 upwards trendline for GBJPY did not convince me into going long. In fact what I suspect is that the pair would probably hit 214 and head back down and that would make it range-bound between 214 and 206.

Have a look BWR and tell me what you think.
Here is my trendline break, should of gone long but I don't trade this pair. almost at 200 now
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  • #380
  • Feb 13, 2008 12:36pm Feb 13, 2008 12:36pm
Here is one trade that I did take. EJ broke out of the fibo fan came back to retest it and closed above the long fibo level.
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