ACD Method on GBP/JPY One trade a day | Page 21 | Forex Factory

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ACD Method on GBP/JPY One trade a day

  • #401
  • Feb 13, 2008 4:08am Feb 13, 2008 4:08am
Hi,
Just caught up with your most recent trades and brought up the chart for them.

This is my take on the GBP/JY this morning to compare with your trades. I have +45 from the opening range which would have meant no trade here, also the lime line is the 50% retrace from the previous day. The price seems to have stopped on this, also it is not out of the A down by 15 mins. Your failed A down seems reasonable, i would have exited on the 450 ema i have on the chart.


napeharm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #402
  • Edited 5:30am Feb 13, 2008 5:15am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting donagh_1
Well it certainly looked like that even though there is no mention of a failed C in Fishers book. I suppose it was really a failed A. but maybe we can call it a failed C why not?

I didn't take it even though I thought about it when it broke back up to the bottom of the range... What a pity I didn't.
on page 31 he gives a example of a failed C.

the problem yesterday, is that after price touch A up area price trade below this area so for me it is a failed A. And then if there was not confirmed A up, it could not be a faleid C down. About a failed A down... i think it could be consired a failed or a good A down, because price came up 15 pips but back below the A point.

but there is a think that i did understand is if after a failed A up, is possible to try again this point and then consider that the A up was estabileshed even if it failed first time?

i will read the book more.

cheers.
  • #403
  • Feb 13, 2008 6:10am Feb 13, 2008 6:10am
today when it made the A down the price just touched the bottom of the pivot range and came back... the bottom of today is 4 below the bottom of the pivot range. Of course it is easy to say now after the fact.
  • #404
  • Feb 13, 2008 7:10pm Feb 13, 2008 7:10pm
i'm new to this thread. it's very interesting, so i'd like to try this system.

but i was confused about the time that you specified.

you said it was 2:00 GMT for g/j. why?

the asian market opens at 0:00 GMT, no?

can you clearify? thank you
  • #405
  • Feb 14, 2008 4:01am Feb 14, 2008 4:01am
i adapted this acd system from yesterday.
i integrated with my traditional system yesterday and gained about 100pips.
however, during the day time, i lost nearly 70pips. i wasn't patient enough to wait for the buy signal. i just got in by hunch and it bit me.

well, i was saved by bell again. i fully followed the way you set it.
i put t/p for 100pip and worked out nicely. banked $1200 at mid night.
i'm in the west coast in usa.

anyway, thank you.

ps. still can you tell me why you choose the time at 2:00GMT, not 0:00GMT which the asian market opens?
  • #406
  • Feb 14, 2008 12:27pm Feb 14, 2008 12:27pm
Hi all of you who have posted recently. I promise to reply to you soon.

I have taken the rest of the week off trading as I was making poor judgements and breaking my rules.

I have come up with a really good method for catching failed A trades which would have made a ton of cash monday and tuesday. I have back tested for the first 6 months of last year and it is very exciting. I will explain all tomorrow evening. I still have great faith in this system but need to disipline myself better.

Happy trading guys,
May the pips be with you.

Donagh
The more I wait the more I make
  • #407
  • Feb 15, 2008 12:04am Feb 15, 2008 12:04am
Newline,

The book is quite clear. It is 2 AM GMT.
  • #408
  • Feb 15, 2008 6:48pm Feb 15, 2008 6:48pm
Quoting newline
i adapted this acd system from yesterday.
i integrated with my traditional system yesterday and gained about 100pips.
however, during the day time, i lost nearly 70pips. i wasn't patient enough to wait for the buy signal. i just got in by hunch and it bit me.

well, i was saved by bell again. i fully followed the way you set it.
i put t/p for 100pip and worked out nicely. banked $1200 at mid night.
i'm in the west coast in usa.

anyway, thank you.

ps. still can you tell me why you choose the time at 2:00GMT, not 0:00GMT which the asian market opens?
Hi newline
Well done on the $1200.
This is a great system as long as you stick to the rules and be patient throughout the barren periods.
Great to hear some positive stuff!!
The more I wait the more I make
  • #409
  • Edited 7:44pm Feb 15, 2008 7:37pm | Edited 7:44pm
I have been having problems with the failed A trade ever since I started this thread. The thing is that there is so much feel required to get it right.

I mean if price hits ths A point, its really impossible to to say within a few minutes wether it will continue or retrace or retrace and shoot back in its original direction.

So I have spent the last few weeks trying to come up with an easier way to
get into the failed A trade. Because it can be a fantastic trade which can really help the old P& L.

So this is what I have come up with. I really think this is pretty good....

I will use the failed A down for example...
If price hits the A down and does not stay there for more than 15 minutes and starts to turn upwards in directoion what I will do to make sure we have a proper failed A and not a second attempt to make a A down is this..

If price comes back from the A down position and reaches the bottom of the opening range well this is where I will buy.
My stop will be a couple of pips below the A down line which will be about 40 pips away.

If the price makes 40 pips I will close half the position. But I will not change the stop loss. At least this means I have not lost any money on the trade, The reason for not putting the stop at break even is because in all the back testing I have done many times you have a failed A which goes up 40 or a 100 pips and then retraces to the A line and goes back again to pick up lots more pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: failed a 1.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: failed a 2.gif Size: 14 KB
The more I wait the more I make
  • #410
  • Feb 18, 2008 2:14am Feb 18, 2008 2:14am
Just went short there about 15 minutes ago at 210.74
stop at 211.40

This time I waited a good 15 minutes.
The more I wait the more I make
  • #411
  • Feb 18, 2008 3:22am Feb 18, 2008 3:22am
Because price is moving back up so fast I think I will close this trade if it reaches the bottom of the range and go long.
Just waiting now
The more I wait the more I make
  • #412
  • Feb 18, 2008 3:37am Feb 18, 2008 3:37am
Quoting donagh_1
Because price is moving back up so fast I think I will close this trade if it reaches the bottom of the range and go long.
Just waiting now
Closed out other trade a 211.35 for a -63 pip loss

Just gone long at 211.35
stop at 210.92 (just below the A down line.)

I can't watch it anymore so Im going off now.
for as long as I can stay away from the computer.
The more I wait the more I make
  • #413
  • Feb 18, 2008 3:40am Feb 18, 2008 3:40am
Why did you go long? Which rule is that following?

Lux
MT4 EA, Indicator and Alert Coder Since 2006
  • #414
  • Feb 18, 2008 3:06pm Feb 18, 2008 3:06pm
Quoting luxinterior
Why did you go long? Which rule is that following?

Lux
I am trying out a new way of getting on failed A's and C's. As I have been missing out on a lot of great failed A and C trades.
I explain it on post 409...
Let me know what you think if you feel like it...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=409
The more I wait the more I make
  • #415
  • Feb 19, 2008 12:56pm Feb 19, 2008 12:56pm
Donagh, sorry for botering you.

i was reading the thread again to try to figure out how do you extract the A and C value using ATR. Could you explain it?

i think is it: put a ATR 14(?) in the daily. Then today ATR ir 139 so the A for EURJPY should be 13 and C 19?

or it is wrong?

the A and C points that you found for GBPJPY are perfect.

and the opening range for EURJPY should be exactaly the same of GBPJPY, right?

thanks in advance.
  • #416
  • Feb 19, 2008 6:45pm Feb 19, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting giraia_br
Donagh, sorry for botering you.

i was reading the thread again to try to figure out how do you extract the A and C value using ATR. Could you explain it?

i think is it: put a ATR 14(?) in the daily. Then today ATR ir 139 so the A for EURJPY should be 13 and C 19?

or it is wrong?

the A and C points that you found for GBPJPY are perfect.

and the opening range for EURJPY should be exactaly the same of GBPJPY, right?

thanks in advance.
Hi Giraria.
WELCOME MY FRIEND. welcome too the MAchine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


There is no sicience to finding the ACD values.
Its all just trial and error! Thats how I found The ACD Values for G/J
The more I wait the more I make
  • #417
  • Feb 20, 2008 6:49am Feb 20, 2008 6:49am
I have decided that I am quitting my ACD day trading Method which I started when I started this thread.

Although I have been very sucsessfull initially for the first month day trading this system I have found it to be increasingly hard to be consistantly profitable in these ranging markets of late.

I now realise that I did not really back test this system far enough back and now see that current ranging market can even get worse than they are at the moment

I may return to this method when we break out of this range again.
But for the mean time I am going to trade other markets and on longer timeframes.

I have found that there is way too much noise in the market during the hours that I trade every morning and while that noise is fine when we are trending. It is very difficult when whipsawing around and not really going anywhere.
Sure you could try scalping it but after time scalping always catches up on you and bites your ass off! [Well in my experience anyway]

I am not giving up trading and I will still use this journal to record all my trades and the logic behind them in fact I am in a trade now which I will post in the next post.

I want to thank everybody who contributed to this thread especially Scott(SMJones), deepleo, Natejax, FX1618, Giraria, Galis.

You have all been very helpfull and insipational in what I have been trying to do.
Please keep checking into this thread as This thread is not dead but only being re-born for a greater good.

I Shall Prevail!!


Donagh
The more I wait the more I make
  • #418
  • Feb 20, 2008 7:14am Feb 20, 2008 7:14am
attached is a chart of GBP/CHF.

I have been watching this for a couple of weeks and have been impressed by
how it is nearly perfectly ranges up and down in a 500 pip range.

Yesterday I went long at 2.1272 and it is currently up 80 to 100 pips.
My stop is 100 pips below.
I am going to try and hold it untill it reaches the top of its range at 2.1783.
And then sell it again.
Well thats the plan for now anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_chf1.gif Size: 28 KB
The more I wait the more I make
  • #419
  • Feb 21, 2008 3:03am Feb 21, 2008 3:03am
Donagh,

I understand your frustration. But right now the markets are in a risk aversion position. This is the reason why they go up and down so violently whether forex or stocks... I don't think in these times there is a system that consistently works.

I receive everyday newsletters from Commerzbank and MF Global. About 3 months ago, they were right on a daily basis close to 60 % of the time. Now, they are do 38%. They are very aware and warn us everyday of this madness.

I look at correlations between currencies before I enter the market. I like to see the yen on all pair moving in the same way. Then I know that something is happening with that particular currency. But even that has taken a few blows lately.

The main problem is mass psychology. With all that is happening : CDOs (maybe soon CLOs), looming inflation, Northern Rock and others, scandals at SocGen and Credit Suisse, slowing US... etc People still want to believe that everything will be ok. And when I mean people, I say professionals. But the data is consistent, it shows economies are going south. The public is uncertain and so are the markets. Particularly when you play a highly volatile currency such as GBP/JPY (20Day Median Average 277 compared with GBP/USD = 127). So your stop maybe taken out before the pair retraces back to your entry level and further.

Again I don't think that there is a system that can protect you against this sort of market. You just have to hang in there and take only those trades that look very good.

Hope you won't disapear because I enjoy reading you
  • #420
  • Feb 21, 2008 7:22am Feb 21, 2008 7:22am
Quoting galis
Donagh,

I understand your frustration. But right now the markets are in a risk aversion position. This is the reason why they go up and down so violently whether forex or stocks... I don't think in these times there is a system that consistently works.

I receive everyday newsletters from Commerzbank and MF Global. About 3 months ago, they were right on a daily basis close to 60 % of the time. Now, they are do 38%. They are very aware and warn us everyday of this madness.

I look at correlations between currencies before I enter the market. I like to see the yen on all pair moving in the same way. Then I know that something is happening with that particular currency. But even that has taken a few blows lately.

The main problem is mass psychology. With all that is happening : CDOs (maybe soon CLOs), looming inflation, Northern Rock and others, scandals at SocGen and Credit Suisse, slowing US... etc People still want to believe that everything will be ok. And when I mean people, I say professionals. But the data is consistent, it shows economies are going south. The public is uncertain and so are the markets. Particularly when you play a highly volatile currency such as GBP/JPY (20Day Median Average 277 compared with GBP/USD = 127). So your stop maybe taken out before the pair retraces back to your entry level and further.

Again I don't think that there is a system that can protect you against this sort of market. You just have to hang in there and take only those trades that look very good.

Hope you won't disapear because I enjoy reading you
Hi Galis,

Thank you very much for your encouragement. It means a lot to me.
Thats a good point you make that no system can consistently work in this inviroment. So by totaly quiting the system for now I am not tempted to keep trying it and getting caught out by these mad whipsaw moves. If I was to continue using it for now I would have to make up way too many rules to make it work. It would become very complicated. So for now I am simply looking at charts on no smaller timeframe than the 4 hour and keeping my lot sizes small.

Thanks again Galis.
You know sometimes you think you are the only one who is going through a tough time trading when actually it is the same for everyone else. I guess the ones who last in trading are the ones who keep their cool during these types of markets and ease off the trigger untill markets improve then they attack like a tiger waiting for his prey in the long grass.

Donagh
The more I wait the more I make
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