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  • #2,201
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:36am Feb 11, 2008 7:36am
Quoting Bobokus
Sounds good I am looking for support to begin to hold. Wait for price action off the fib drawn off todays movement to comfirm this, if todays support doesnt hold we could be ranging and have to wait for the next day to try again.
Thanks for the sanity check
  • #2,202
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:36am Feb 11, 2008 7:36am
Quoting Nuno
Good morning Bo

It make sense that entry in a candle that is consistently over swing long.
Wouldn't it make sense again a long entry 4/5 candles after your exit in your example?
I will try to understand this concept to other markt conditions and Eur/Usd currency.It was pretty clear what you mean.

Thank you

Nuno

Yes, I didnt go back and pull another fib but it looks like at the point you are mentioning would be considered a bounce....(In an uptrend buy the dips). Euro will respomd to fibs very we'll...all the major's do.
  • #2,203
  • Feb 11, 2008 8:20am Feb 11, 2008 8:20am
Hi Bo

Is this correct?
May be this considered as a sell signal as price crosses the envelope at present?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1202739295
Nuno
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: piu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,204
  • Feb 11, 2008 9:02am Feb 11, 2008 9:02am
...hrly indecision (just printed) right on today's "last hope for longs" support level.
  • #2,205
  • Feb 11, 2008 9:43am Feb 11, 2008 9:43am
Quoting Nuno
Hi Bo

Is this correct?
May be this considered as a sell signal as price crosses the envelope at present?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1202739295
Nuno
I wouldnt recommend trading the breaks of the envelope its merely for a reference to price. Just like with MA's you'd get killed in ranging markets.
  • #2,206
  • Feb 11, 2008 9:50am Feb 11, 2008 9:50am
Quoting ChowClown
...hrly indecision (just printed) right on today's "last hope for longs" support level.
Correct a break of the 1.9440ish level and its over for today, 2nd attempt would have to be done during tomorrows trading if price cannot be maintained today.
  • #2,207
  • Feb 11, 2008 10:00am Feb 11, 2008 10:00am
Can we count this last hour candle as the bounce from support and buy from here? Or we gotta wait till price break "long" @ 19480 and only then consider buying?

(my browser got mad. i can't find a attachment button)
  • #2,208
  • Edited 4:06am Feb 12, 2008 3:25am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting ChowClown
...for smaller move trades i'm biased long, especially as we now have a penetration of Friday's swing high, which to my mind opens up the T1 target @ 9556.
...9556 target hit. I'll be looking for further long entries on dips should support continue to hold. The green swing fib high has now broken on the hourly, perhaps its T1 magnet (@ 9578) will begin to exert itself around the news in a few minutes.

Edit: Slightly weaker than expected data providing momentum down side, but the red swing fib is still supporting price. If the green swing short level is broken @9449, i'll then be looking for rallies to sell....i may get in short at the retracement levels (if offered) once the current hourly candle prints (ie from just fibbing this hour's range)...it's T1 will still be within the confines of the green fib.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hrly Fibs - 12th Feb 08.GIF Size: 62 KB
  • #2,209
  • Feb 12, 2008 6:43am Feb 12, 2008 6:43am
Quoting ChowClown
...9556 target hit. I'll be looking for further long entries on dips should support continue to hold. The green swing fib high has now broken on the hourly, perhaps its T1 magnet (@ 9578) will begin to exert itself around the news in a few minutes.

Edit: Slightly weaker than expected data providing momentum down side, but the red swing fib is still supporting price. If the green swing short level is broken @9449, i'll then be looking for rallies to sell....i may get in short at the retracement levels (if offered) once the current hourly candle prints (ie from just fibbing this hour's range)...it's T1 will still be within the confines of the green fib.
I think your starting to get the hang of it...nice job!
  • #2,210
  • Feb 12, 2008 7:05am Feb 12, 2008 7:05am
Quoting Bobokus
I think your starting to get the hang of it...nice job!
...getting there slowly, thanks to your posts and guidance. You've helped in changing the way I look at price flow for good now
  • #2,211
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:10am Feb 12, 2008 8:10am
Sweet, anyone else get that?
Textbook move
Got out with 40 pips, price stalled just below T1 now
  • #2,212
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:14am Feb 12, 2008 8:14am
Alrighty, this was nice! Price took itself to TP in one blow. This is so generous of it - only half a candle of anticipation, fear and other stresses which I can't get rid of, just control them to a certain degree.
  • #2,213
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:42am Feb 12, 2008 8:42am
...now if they would be so kind to keep this going and print a more 'orderly' H1 chart through the rest of the week I've found it tough navigating the chop these last few days....today's swing long T1 hit now too @9598...marvellous.
  • #2,214
  • Feb 12, 2008 8:54am Feb 12, 2008 8:54am
...having said this, price is once again in the wider range fib zone, so i guess we're in for another battle before we get clearer direction to play off.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hrly Fibs - 12th Feb (2) 08.GIF Size: 58 KB
  • #2,215
  • Feb 12, 2008 9:06am Feb 12, 2008 9:06am
I'm still long since 1.9537, stop currently at 1.9590.
M1 has been very clean and steady on the staircase of S/R levels.
I wasn't going to trade after the short move earlier but M1 was so clean as was H1, I was able to find another swing range of only 45 pips with tight initial stops so I took the chance. If it were spiking all over the place or "swinging" chaotically on M1 I'd have stayed out as usual after already seeing a "big" move of the day. I'm doing the writeup now in the journal in note form (pictures take too much effort these days)
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,216
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:13am Feb 12, 2008 10:13am
And now that I chose a top and exited....it went even longer (is that proper grammar?)
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,217
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:22am Feb 12, 2008 10:22am
This is my first post here but i've been following for some time. Todays movements were crazy. I just did the normal stuff everyone on here has been doing and i exited with a 154 pips profit day. On demo though

Btw thanks for the thread Bo
  • #2,218
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:26am Feb 12, 2008 10:26am
Quoting disr
This is my first post here but i've been following for some time. Todays movements were crazy. I just did the normal stuff everyone on here has been doing and i exited with a 154 pips profit day. On demo though

Btw thanks for the thread Bo
Nice job !, it looks as if everyone did well today.
  • #2,219
  • Feb 12, 2008 10:44am Feb 12, 2008 10:44am
Something is driving the charts into saturation today. Along with cable going up strong, EUR/JPY just broke out of a range it was stuck in last week and it's running straight up (almost literally). I may have bailed on cable too soon but I'm still in the carry trade at least.

And to stay on topic, I used fibs to check for a 50% retracement at one point in my analysis before entry!
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,220
  • Feb 13, 2008 4:35am Feb 13, 2008 4:35am
Hey Bo,

Just wanted to find out if a range fib was relevant here in the past few days as I have in the chart. Took out the intraday and swing fibs so that there would be less clutter.

Do we do it like in the 1st chart or the 2nd one?
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